Daily Members Post: 24/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(70 tips/13 wins/26 places (inc wins) /+84.8 points, advised/+87  Betfair SP)

#1 – 7.25 Ripon – Dubai Future 1.5 points win – 5/1 (gen) (also with Lad/Coral as of 08.25) UP -1.5

#2 – 1.10 Newm – Dancinginthewoods – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP) 17/2 (WH) 8/1 (BV) UP 10/1, -1

#3 – 4.45 Bev – Reassurance – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 3rd, 11/1, -1

 

that’s all for today, x3 tips, 3.5 points, #1 as of 8am, #2/3 as of 08.59. Write ups at bottom…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.40 Newm – Sparkling Olly (16/1<)  H1 11/8 3rd

7.25 Ripon – Al Muffrih (12/1< guide) 7/4 2nd

7.25 Ripon – Dubai Future (10/1<) H3 5/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding (14/1<)

4.45 Bev – Reassurance  14/1 3rd

Jim Crowley (any odds)

12.00 Newm – Jadwal  6/1 WON 6/1 >8/1 , 11.85/1 BFSP

1.10 Newm – Al Namir 7/2 UP

Jack Mitchell 

12.35 Newm – Grey Galleon (any) H1 7/2 UP

Straight Track Specialists 

As per previous Micro Monday Report HERE>>>

2.15 Newm – Nugget H2 11/10 WON 11/10>11/10

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

8.25 Ripon – Union (2nd run since entering notebook) H4 7/4 UP

Hot-Form

1.10 Newm – Dancinginthewoods (1st run) 7/1 UP 10/1

Losing Tips

7.25 Ripon – Dubai Future (2nd run) H3 5/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Trends Thursday Post: HERE>>>

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Tips – write ups

Dubai Future – 5s just looked big here (still available at 8.25 in a few places, inc Lad/Coral) and there’s still some 9/2 around. I did think on all known form/his profile, he should be a 3s shot in this. I think he has the best handicapping form in the race – well, he’s run in two hot handicaps the last twice, the first of which when fancied by me as a poke at 20s. Nibbled into 12s, but he was stuck wide and the ground may have gone. And he may have needed it! He’s lightly raced but did well in Meydan inc a 2nd in a G3, beaten by a 107 horse at the time. He was staying on though. LTO he ran in a decent Newmarket handicap, one where Cape Coast won for us, the start of this mad, crazy run. Maybe it will be ironic if he’s the 3rd loser on the day, and ends said run! He went well there for a long way and was level, if not slightly ahead, 2f out. He didn’t get home there but drops back 2f here, and its the best ground he’s had for a while. It’s also a weaker race.

Saeed does well at the track, 9/28, 13p in last 5 years, 2/2 in the last year. (the market has cottoned on though, you can’t just back them blind) Its only the second time he’s used young Egan but a case could be made that he’s an upgrade on both Cosgrave and Watson. The yard are going well enough and they try something different with 1st CP. He doesn’t run as if he needs them to me but maybe jockey feedback has influenced the move.

The pace set up also intrigued me – he travels well and can be put anywhere. They usually race him up there, tracking the pace. On paper, there’s a lot of it. Frankus, The Trader, Groveman and the Fav (at least based on LTO) all have led/like to lead. I can hope that they ruin each other’s chance in this, the selection picking up the pieces, hands and heels! We can hope. He does have a touch of class and as yet I can’t say this mark is beyond him. He recorded a 105 RPR LTO, a join career best, giving me hope.

Of the rest… The Haggas horse may win but he’s too short for me and I want to take him on. He had a hard race 6 days ago, and he’s up in class. This is deeper. He also, in theory, won’t get an easy lead – not without doing too much anyway. The Trader was the right price, maybe there’s room in his mark, but he had the run of the race two starts back. Groveman is interesting to a point but again up in class and on a career high flat/AW mark on the 20th run of his life on the level.

The Bin Suroor yard/trainer do like a gamble I think, they tend to know when to put the money down (that’s my hunch, no stats to back that up!) but he’s shrewd. It could be Dubai just hitched a ride in the box, to keep their 9/4 fav company in the 5.55 – maybe a double for the team! Who knows. (16/1, if you’ve a spare £2 laying around – that’s a few pints this weekend, or x3 decent bottles of wine, if it comes in of course)

I didn’t like the rest. It did look between the the top 3 in the market, and they’d all have to under-perform for something else to take this.

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Dancinginthewoods – or maybe in the street if he romps home. I couldn’t leave him at his price here, given his form. That race LTO is working out well, and he was so fresh/keen there, all the way through. Yet still he was staying on at the line, not knocked around. He’d have needed it also. I also found it hard to ignore his juvenile form – his Newmarket maiden win, beating 19 rivals – not many of Dean’s would do that on debut. (was sent off 50s, probably surprised them). Pinatubo won that Epsom race, his next start. Then that solid Donny 2nd, the front two well clear – beaten by Thunderous there – 3/4,4p since, inc x2 this season, a Group race LTO off a rating of 103. The horse behind him there, Breathalyze, is 2/4,4p since and is now rated 88 – went close off that mark on his seasonal return. His last race is now 4/11, 8p with those to have run since.

All of that makes me think that surely he will leave behind a mark of 80 one day. (yes yes, potentially another cliff, but I do like the seaside) In saying that, his RPR LTO was 79 (a career best) and on that basis there is a question. But at this price, i’ll pay to find out.

Ivory is 2/8,4p at the July course in handicaps in the last 730 days. (a HorseRaceBase dashboard/racecard stat) The yard have been going ok, enough running well, inc the odd biggie. The 45 day break niggles me – maybe he’s hard to train, or they’ve been working on knocking that freshness out of him. It could be he doesn’t progress this year, but there was plenty to like LTO and I think he will like this climb to the line.

He should track the pace. They are using the far side course today, the stalls against the far side rail for most races (high numbers). He could get marooned up the middle, or he gets out, and across – he can hang to his left, which if he could get ahead of the pack at any point, the jockey can let him drift up against that far rail, which may help. Unless the track is narrow, in which case he’ll have the nearside rail! He handled the Rowley fine, so here should be ok also. He looked overpriced.

The dangers… the Fav may hack up again, an eye-popping RPR LTO (96) and he runs off 85 here. He was fairly impressive but switches back to fast turf now – a question. And he is still keen. Hopefully he hates the ground/pulls his chance away (which mine may do again, but he isn’t 7/4). I couldn’t wade in at that price.

Money is coming for Al Namir, which is probably significant. I was hoping he would need it, and he does have questions. Well bred though. 3s looks short however. But you can see him coming there hard held. Given the market signs, i’d now prefer him over the fav. Zap doesn’t win often enough and is open to attack from something going up the ratings, rather than coming down. The rest have enough questions for me .. although Angel of Delight may outrun his odds, 22s+ for him prob a tad insulting although you have to ignore LTO – maybe he badly needed it/didn’t stay also.

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Reassurance – 16s is an insult really, in this moderate race. One for the ‘breeding/sires’ angle, for extreme trips. I’d need to check those stats again, not lodged in my head, however a quick click on Geegeez tells me her sire’s offspring are 14/86, 31p, +63 in turf handicaps over 16f. She stays. I’ve no stamina concerns. She’s also lightly raced for her age and has taken a step forward since the blinkers came on, and they were more aggressive with her. (Really Super/ CP / aggressive… these mares) She showed a great attitude two starts back. I can ignore any bad run at Newcastle- at this price I will assume she didn’t handle it! In any case she’s now 0/6 on the all-weather. And I can ignore any bad run from a mare.  She’s 1/8,2p in turf handicaps. It’s not impossible Duran tries to make all either, and she’s got nothing on her back. It is a stab, but this just looked too big and I couldn’t help myself.

Stonific may bolt up again. He will be held up I think and that race LTO fell apart somewhat, he may well have stayed by default, although he hit the line hard. Returning 7 days later here, 9-11 on his back, I can hope that he falls in a hole. He may not, but again i’m not wading into him at 2s and i’ll take on. He can beat me, which he may do.

I didn’t like the rest at all at the prices. I don’t think Snookered stays 16f on the flat. Doctor Cross has plenty of questions although ran well LTO. He is only 1/20 in turf handicaps, making 5s look short. Billy No Mates – well he does appear to have some friends in the market – maybe the class drop will help but he’s stamina to prove, up 4f. I can’t say he’s been running if crying out for it, but we shall see. It’s an unknown, rather than a ‘he definitely doesn’t stay’. Blazon is a bit of a boat, but he will keep going and the Bailey team are going really well over sticks.

Anyway, more than happy to take a dart on this one at 16s. Hopefully she can dictate, that would be exciting. Grab the rail. I think she’ll keep going. Maybe outclassed, but a price to find out. A lively outsider.

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The shorties…

I deliberated being fancy with some ‘official’ 1/2 point doubles/trebles with some of the shorties above, but then I had a word with myself. Tut. Sparkling Olly, Nugget and Union – all three should be going very close I think. Maybe only one of them will win, maybe two, maybe all 3. I’d be surprised if they all got beat. They’re too short for advised single/win bets. Fun stakes options maybe. If you follow my tips, you should follow them, inc staking advice. Any ‘multiple’ bets should be for fun stakes, and irregular, in my view anyway. I’ve backed three winning doubles during this hot spell, I think the only doubles i’ve ever won! (truly, Armageddon is near) Only for 5s (1/4 of my tipping stake). I don’t do them very often at all, for good reason I suspect. But, each to their own. Nothing wrong with an ‘action bet’ budget, actually i’d encourage it. This is a game to be enjoyed after all, but sensibly so. 

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GL, Josh

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Results ‘mini’ update… i’ll do a proper results post a week on Monday but just looking at Sections 2 & 3 (the ‘stats’) . 1st June to 21st July

  • Any Section 2 or 3 horse with a H1/H2/H3/H4 next to their name, any odds (HorseRaceBase Top 4 rated)
    • 95 bets / 23 wins/ 42 places (inc wins) / +32.94 BFSP
  • Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat … all those who qualified on morning odds, (so, ignoring those with a ‘DNQ’ next to their name, using my odds caps from the historical research)
    • They are -7.82 BFSP in July up to 21st but after a good June, in total: 123 bets / 27 wins/ 58 places (inc wins) / +22.1 BFSP
  • Other Micro Angles (all Section 3 stats/using odds caps on morning odds):
    • 61 bets / 14 wins / 24p / +18.2 BFSP
    • Does include a 25/1 winner, which if removed leaves them with some work to do, systematically.

Still, the stats content is doing well, and as a foundation to my tipping, and maybe your own picking, is doing the job – highlighting winners. (along with the ‘horses to follow’ section).

It would be great if the ‘H’ ‘stats strategy’ can carry on as it is . Time will tell, I have been backing them for 1/4 points (of my tipping stake) for a while now. I’m confident long term they should keep ticking along, but I suppose we will only truly know in time.

The Trainer Profiles – I didn’t expect them to work as a ‘back all’ ‘system’. I hoped they would but you never know with such Trainer research, esp this year, and given those stats don’t provide any context for the ability of the horse in the context of today’s race (that’s where HorseRaceBase ratings can help) but so far so good, and they’re +30 to morning odds.

A slightly more in-depth update will follow a week Monday all being well, inc a link to the spreadsheet, which will have the breakdown of the ‘other micro angles’ angles, and all my tips etc.

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Hi Josh
    Fantastic tipping recently and I found the recent video on how you found your selections really interesting.
    I was wondering how long you keep your micro angles running for, do you review at the end of the season / year or would you stop posting midseason if you have noticed one going awry.

    Andrew M 23/07/20 5:59 PM Reply


    • Thanks Andrew, appreciated.

      Hmm, no right or wrong answer to that – but i’d try and keep any new angles etc going for the duration of the season, but i keep track of everything posted above, and monitor etc, and share results monthly. I think it’s important to refresh or add some new ideas, hence ‘micro monday’, some of that research finds it’s way into the ‘other angles’ section above – such as Crowley/Mitchell. At the same time i’m conscious that less can be more and i’m happy with the number of horses listed daily at the moment, you don’t want 20+ a day, sending you square eyed. Although some days can be very busy, numbers wise.

      It depends on the purpose – none of them are researched to say straight off the bat – ‘dive in with wads and hope for the best’ There’s obviously plenty of logic behind them all, and they are well researched, on paper anyway. But I share the stats and said logic so readers can decide for themselves. And with any ‘system’ you should start small and hopefully build up in time, but if it doesn’t work not too much damage is done.
      There’s always various risks with Trainer angles, hence why I hope a portfolio like section 2 could do well, when some dip, others step up. And the foundation logic behind all of the 15 in that section is that their base stats in handicaps are very good for all runners, inc win / place %, AE / IV.

      The primary aim was/is to create content that finds winners and is then a useful ‘starting point/way in’ – that’s the drive with everything I produce really. I do hope the ‘Trainer Profiles’ works as a systematic portfolio, and then within that, those stats angles that are Top 4 Horse Race Base ratings, as per the results chat above. Those ratings are solid in handicaps and are a ‘constant’ if that makes sense.

      Everything above, research/angles wise, was new this Flat season as some of the stuff i’d been producing at times in months gone by/a couple of seasons, I concluded wasn’t that effective, nor that unique. It’s easy to over-complicate in this game also and that’s something i’ve been actively trying not to do, while realising it is a complex sport. A tricky balance. And trying to get a mix of different angles – so we have handicap trainers, sires, some jockeys etc. Plus my ‘horses to follow’ approach. If all those stats keep repeating as per results above, we will be doing very well. Still early signs really but so far so good.

      Not sure i’d ever stop mid season- although that would be a sign the initial research/thinking wasn’t good enough, but they’ll all get reviewed at the end of the year at some point, inc all 15 trainers/their angles that make up Section 2.

      The links to most of the reports/stats that underpin sections 2/3 are in that welcome link at the top of each post, also here>>> (resources on final page I think) And the rest will be in the ‘free reports & systems’ tab somewhere. But I don’t post/track everything ever researched on here, again that can be reader’s discretion to pick and choose what they may wish to note down.

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/My-Blog-Content-Explained.pdf

      Josh

      Josh 23/07/20 6:18 PM Reply


  • No joy on Thursday -0/2 + anon runner.

    Three for Friday:

    2.15 Newmarket, Cognac – trainer in form, second run in a handicap, will likely go from the front.
    3.20 Newmarket, Ice Sprite – trainer in form, first run in a handicap, good run last time out.
    6.35 Newton Abbot, Ballon Onabudget – solid form in this grade, course and distance winner, the trainer has good course form.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 23/07/20 8:54 PM Reply


  • 2 winners and a second in the c3+ list yesterday. my picks didnt fair so well.
    the rest of card at pontefract scored 3 winners one at 33/1 a 2nd place and 3 3rd’s of my three picks one winner whisper not won at 4/1 but i did manage 10/1 on it and with josh firing on all 12 cylinders it was one of the better day in the end.
    on to today.
    newmarket
    14:15 cognac / nugget
    ripon
    18:25 flying pursuit / quick look / muscika
    19:25 groveman / the trader

    my picks
    quick look
    groveman

    good luck everyone 🙂

    warren bottomley 24/07/20 12:43 AM Reply


  • Good that everything is going well at the moment. Well done. No need to work this out now, but is there a better win and profit ratio for H1 than H2, H2 than H3, and H3 than H4? Still low sample sizes but they’re beginning to become useful. Ta.

    Chris Marshall 24/07/20 10:23 AM Reply


    • Hi Chris,

      I only keep two sets of results… H1 (i have those details separated out, for sections 2/3, and for section 4) and then H2/3/4 together (again sections 2/3, and 4 sep) – when I did the research in HRB, across all flat handicaps, 750 races in their ratings samples – top rate was clear stand out at 20% win sr, the other three were closely aligned – and the top 4 clearly ahead of the rest etc.
      I’m not recording the H2 / 3 / 4 separately and have no intention of doing so. That doesn’t stop others keeping record if they so wish! But, logic for why i’m doing it as I am and I doubt the sample would ever get big enough to be of use, broken down by each one. They’re detailed in the spreadsheet etc which i’ll post a link to a week Monday.

      Obviously in any race there can be a fair spread of ratings etc, and I use that as some sort of guide when working out tips etc.

      Josh

      Josh 24/07/20 10:28 AM Reply


      • Was H1 profitable at SP/BSP over that sample?

        Chris 24/07/20 3:09 PM Reply


        • No, none of the ratings pointers across all flat handicaps were profitable to SP/BFSP.

          Just looking now, all flat handicaps… H1 … 750 races (783 bets) / 171 wins / 359 places/ -45 SP.

          Obv my hope is that those when combined with my unique angles etc, could lead to a profitable strategy, but we may arguably never have a bigger enough sample to have full confidence. But at least how Chris compiles them seems to be a constant.

          Josh 24/07/20 3:20 PM Reply


  • Another good winner yesterday Josh…keep it going!!

    Ascot list runners:
    12.15 Bev. Gems Jewel
    13.20 Bev. Imperial Butterfly
    17.55 Rip. Mashmoom.

    Selection. 17.55….Jumeirah Beach 1/2 pt e/w

    Betting suggests that Mashmoom in 17.55 has the best chance of winning of the three above…Sets the standard and has a good chance….the newcomer Jumeirah Beach at 15/2 may be the best challenger, based on pedigree so that is the selection against Masmoom. Gd lck if playing today.

    silver 24/07/20 11:51 AM Reply


    • HEY HO SILVER 🙂
      My ovens flagged up 1.20 b Imperial beauty e/w/4tbp aswell ????
      but also i like the owners 2yo’s of Sadies Day .. same trainer !! ???
      but saying that my head says Party Spirit ….. and i am throwing in Locket for the f/c as well 😉

      keep up the good work ..and thanks for posting .. 🙂

      lgb

      GEORGE B 24/07/20 12:30 PM Reply


      • Hi George B……Imperial Butterfly could only manage 5th unfortunately and unlucky for your choice Party Spirit….the winner ran well at Chepstow and just stayed better….not sure if you have ever been to Chepstow but the track is very undulating and a very much a stamina track so anything that runs well there is sure to stay elsewhere so, given the distance for 2yo horses of over 7f Party Spirit ran a gd race…..all the best with whatever you are backing today and keep that oven fired up…all the best HI HO…..

        silver 24/07/20 1:33 PM Reply


    • Disappointing from my selection …….still plus 5.35 pts but diminishing!!! Hopefully better tomorrow!

      silver 24/07/20 5:59 PM Reply


  • I am looking forward to the Saturday post and selections for the international Stakes

    I already have a short list of three.

    Kosh and I have so far come up with Breath Caught (25/1 2nd), Cape Coast (14/1) and Jawwaal (16/1) independently of each other. Be interested in your short list. Will have to have savers on any not on mine.

    The race on sunday is a devilish puzzle greatly impinged by the Great st Wilfrid & the ayr Bronze-to-Gold cups.

    I mean, why would you want to win this for £10k and get put up when you’re probably already guaranteed a run at ripon?

    Richard 24/07/20 3:50 PM Reply


    • It’s giving me a right headache Richard!

      Tomorrow’s post has been up for a little while, hit ‘home’ with my initial trends/stats sift at the bottom.

      Ascot could get bucket fulls tonight, they could get very little. And the same through the day. Or they may not get much at all! There’s some in that who do want it very quick I think, a few who need a bog, plenty of unknowns and a few who are fine.

      Josh

      Josh 24/07/20 3:59 PM Reply


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