2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
(67 tips / 12 wins / 25 places (inc wins) / +81.3 points, advised / +84.6 Betfair SP)
#1 – 3.20 Ponte – Wadilsafa – 1.5 points win – 7/2 (gen) (10p R4) UP -1.5, relatively weak before hand, no excuse to my eyes. Dictated, Jim got after him early enough, nothing there. Can’t have been ground. Strange. Prob didn’t matter as it turned out but still poor. Maybe his wind was a ‘one op wonder’. King’s has run a cracker and has something decent in him you’d feel.
#2 – 7.00 Sand – Arthurian Fable – 1.5 point win – 4/1 (gen) WON +6
#3 – 6.30 Sand – Martineo – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365) 10/1 (WH/888/BV) UP 14/1
that’s all for today, x3, 4 points, #1/2 as of 8am, #3 as of 08.51 … as always tips are listed in order that I make the decision…write ups at the bottom…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
2.20 Ponte – Only Alone (9/1<) 7/1 UP
6.30 Sand – Conscious (any odds) 5/2
7.30 Sand – Blue Cup (16/1<) 13/2
3.Other Micro Angles
Jim Crowley (any)
3.20 Ponte – Wadilsafa 7/2 UP
5.35 Ponte – Hatheem 8/1
4.Horses to Follow
6.30 Sand – Martineo (2nd run) 11/1
7.00 Arthurian Fable H2 4/1
Tips write ups…
Wadilsafa – 7/2 looks huge in this line up to my eyes. His back-form is some of the best in this, if not the best, at stakes level, and it appears the wind op has done the trick, seemingly giving an excuse for his now forgotten 2019. Although the odd good run, that Happy Power 2nd ok giving him 14lb and in far from ideal ground. This son of Frankel, who I don’t think’s had the chop (which is odd for a well bred 5YO from this team I think, and maybe a positive sign that they think he could win a Group race this year, not that they’re short for stallion options, but he is a Frankel), arrives in form and gets his conditions. That C2 run LTO was solid off 107, carrying 10st, and if he’d got a clear run he may well have won it. But Dane didn’t knock him about too much. They knew there were better races ahead. He’s hacked up at Listed level before, he’s dotted up in a deep c2 handicap off 100 before. This horse has class and that run LTO suggests he retains it for me. He’s also posted RPRs of 116 at various points in his career to date, and I don’t think anything in here has matched such heights as yet.
The extra confidence, extra 1/2 point comes from three things really… Burrows is in form, Jim is in form and given his boss has two at Sandown (inc a 13/8 shot in a Novice that Dane rides) I thought it significant he comes up here (he’s got a few rides, and I may be on the wrong one!)– surely for this Listed contest, the highlight of the card. The final element was pace – there isn’t much of it on paper and there’s every chance Jim can dictate if he wants – in any case he really should be 1st or 2nd through this. I think he’ll relish this stiff 8f and he does just gallop. Hopefully Jim gets after him early enough.
Dark Vision – the pace set up is also why i’m anti the fav, at the price – but if mine is leading into the final furlong, I will be looking behind as this one should be closing – fun ‘saver’ forecast options for the more adventurous maybe. He is best in a bigger field/stronger pace, but if i’ve got that wrong and he holds a position/can pick up, then he will give me plenty to think about.
I had it between the two of them, and thought mine should be much shorter than 7/2 in this line up. The Alan King horse is interesting – that final run of the season, chasing home Lord North, is arguably the best piece of capping form in this. He has had 300 days off though but if he’s a1, he shouldn’t be far away. He stays well but like the fav ‘could’ be inconvenienced but the tactical nature of this. But Martin H is riding well, a jockey to keep an eye on given freelance, has spent some time in AUS from memory, I think his clock may have been fine tuned. Probably one for a ‘micro monday’ post early next season. (someone remind me in time!). He’s a better rider than many.
The selection has stuffed the Hannon horse previously and the other two have a few questions at the moment, O’Meara’s having first start after a wind op. But he’s classy on his day.
Still, hopefully Crowley kicks for home, see ya later, catch me if you can. I don’t think they will. Well, 7/2 was far too big in this race, so i’ll wade in to find out.
Arthurian Fable – this is it, one last hurrah. Tipped/backed the last twice, i’m now on the edge of the cliff. 4s was two points too big here, he should be a 2s shot I think in this, based on his form. It is the best handicapping form in the race, esp that Ascot run which was very good given his draw/no cover wide for an age/a tad lit up. That race is working out well. LTO I thought he had no excuse from the front but in hindsight it was soft again. All of his runs this season have had cut in the ground and this son of Sea The Stars gets good to firm for the first time in his career. His offspring’s record on GF is better than the overall win SR. Whether he wants it or not, we shall see, but it is a reason for why he could run better. He also goes up in trip again and he’s never been stopping in any of his races to date, inc LTO. And he gets Ryan Moore (i’m a big fan, as I am of Spencer…!) who may be able to dictate affairs here. This race doesn’t look as deep as LTO to my eyes, and certainly is no Royal Ascot handicap. It’s the final time I will back him, so it’s one last go at 4s. There’s a chance he’s a bit soft in the head but I’m not sure. He is still a maiden though and you can only keep making excuses for so long. But, on RPRs, he does come here on the back of a career best LTO. Here’s hoping.
The fav isn’t overpriced, but is the one to beat. I could have track position on him/more class. Take those two out and it is open, some money coming for SDS’ mount.
Martineo – one from the ‘horses to follow’ section – if you watch that Yarmouth run back, you’ll see why! With a clear run he goes very close to winning. That race has subsequently become a ‘hot race’ for the grade also, producing a few winners both in front and behind. Take out the ‘could be anything’ fav in this (inc ‘could be mediocre’) and it’s a weak/open C5 handicap, no stronger than that Yarmouth run. This horse needs a strong pace to sit off. He is usually ridden patiently and the sort you want a decent price on. He will need luck, he may be flying, but too late. But he’s 10s. There’s potentially a strong pace in this, on paper anyway. 4/5 who can/have led on recent starts. Perfect. The harder they go the better. A strongly run 7f is ideal and he is chucked in now. He’s so well handicapped. Last year he hacked up off 73, then won again off 78. With the claim (and the jockey knows him well) he’s off 69 here. It is only a matter of time and he’s moved through both the last two races like a well handicapped/in-form horse – they didn’t go quick enough for him at Chelmsford, small field, dawdle. He stayed on though and wasn’t knocked about. He’s yet to win on the turf from 9 goes but has gone very close on occasions, in some much better races than this, and including at Sandown. IF he runs his race he will be staying on. I pondered EW given a few going 1/5, 4p but stuck with on the nose. Butler has been going well this season, 1/12, 5 places, 0/7, 3p the last 14 days. About time another got their head in front. I think the market can guide with this yard. In any case, on all known form he should be a 6s shot in this line up imo.
Of the rest… the fav is a Trainer Profiles qual above but too short for me at 5/2 (I know, would you believe it), given his profile. He is the most interesting by a mile in this – he is up against moderate handicappers and ‘could be anything’ , and could bolt up. But, I was happy to leave/take on.
I have had ‘beer money’ on Amy’s at 9s under SDS as he has more upside than a few in here and ran as if he needed it LTO.
Bar those three, I really didn’t like anything else in this. They can all beat me, with a shrug of the shoulders.
I looked at all the other stats quals, obviously, and may have one or two wrong, but a tipping judgement on price- Blue Cup, he has handicaps in him at some point this season – he seemed short enough at 5s given I’ve a big going question (Colin!) his French win/form was in soft/heavy, and that’s French soft/heavy. Good to Firm is an unknown – that’s fine if he’s a 10s/12s shot in a race like this, not 5s. He’s also been held up in his races – again, as with Martineo, fine for 10s+, not at 5s in a race like this for me. The yard are a bit chilly at the moment also. He may win though, that’s simply a subjective assessment of price against the knowns, unknowns and the oppo. Only Alone and Hatheem are unexposed, so no shock if either wins, but I had a few niggles at their odds. But, stats quals are stats quals, and if you back any systematically, obviously don’t be put off by those musings!
Backing all Section 2 qualifiers (those without a ‘DNQ’ next to name) was +30 points up as of 1st June- 21st July. The ‘Did not qualifiy’ based on my odds caps, around +24 points up in addition to those, if you ignored the price caps. (I didn’t, darn)