Daily Members Post: 23/07/20 (complete)

Tips x3, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(67 tips / 12 wins / 25 places (inc wins) / +81.3 points, advised / +84.6  Betfair SP)   

#1 – 3.20 Ponte – Wadilsafa 1.5 points win – 7/2 (gen) (10p R4) UP -1.5, relatively weak before hand, no excuse to my eyes. Dictated, Jim got after him early enough, nothing there. Can’t have been ground. Strange.  Prob didn’t matter as it turned out but still poor. Maybe his wind was a ‘one op wonder’.  King’s has run a cracker and has something decent in him you’d feel. 

#2 – 7.00 Sand – Arthurian Fable1.5 point win – 4/1 (gen) WON +6 

#3 – 6.30 Sand – Martineo – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365) 10/1 (WH/888/BV) UP 14/1

that’s all for today, x3, 4 points, #1/2 as of 8am, #3 as of 08.51 … as always tips are listed in order that I make the decision…write ups at the bottom…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.20 Ponte – Only Alone (9/1<) 7/1 UP

6.30 Sand – Conscious (any odds) 5/2

7.30 Sand – Blue Cup (16/1<) 13/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

3.20 Ponte – Wadilsafa 7/2 UP

5.35 Ponte – Hatheem 8/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

6.30 Sand – Martineo (2nd run) 11/1

Losing Tips

7.00 Arthurian Fable H2  4/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Wadilsafa – 7/2 looks huge in this line up to my eyes. His back-form is some of the best in this, if not the best, at stakes level, and it appears the wind op has done the trick, seemingly giving an excuse for his now forgotten 2019. Although the odd good run, that Happy Power 2nd ok giving him 14lb and in far from ideal ground. This son of Frankel, who I don’t think’s had the chop (which is odd for a well bred 5YO from this team I think, and maybe a positive sign that they think he could win a Group race this year, not that they’re short for stallion options, but he is a Frankel), arrives in form and gets his conditions. That C2 run LTO was solid off 107, carrying 10st, and if he’d got a clear run he may well have won it. But Dane didn’t knock him about too much. They knew there were better races ahead. He’s hacked up at Listed level before, he’s dotted up in a deep c2 handicap off 100 before. This horse has class and that run LTO suggests he retains it for me. He’s also posted RPRs of 116 at various points in his career to date, and I don’t think anything in here has matched such heights as yet.

The extra confidence, extra 1/2 point comes from three things really… Burrows is in form, Jim is in form and given his boss has two at Sandown (inc a 13/8 shot in a Novice that Dane rides) I thought it significant he comes up here (he’s got a few rides, and I may be on the wrong one!)– surely for this Listed contest, the highlight of the card. The final element was pace – there isn’t much of it on paper and there’s every chance Jim can dictate if he wants – in any case he really should be 1st or 2nd through this. I think he’ll relish this stiff 8f and he does just gallop. Hopefully Jim gets after him early enough.

Dark Vision – the pace set up is also why i’m anti the fav, at the price – but if mine is leading into the final furlong, I will be looking behind as this one should be closing – fun ‘saver’ forecast options for the more adventurous maybe. He is best in a bigger field/stronger pace, but if i’ve got that wrong and he holds a position/can pick up, then he will give me plenty to think about.

I had it between the two of them, and thought mine should be much shorter than 7/2 in this line up. The Alan King horse is interesting – that final run of the season, chasing home Lord North, is arguably the best piece of capping form in this. He has had 300 days off though but if he’s a1, he shouldn’t be far away. He stays well but like the fav ‘could’ be inconvenienced but the tactical nature of this. But Martin H is riding well, a jockey to keep an eye on given freelance, has spent some time in AUS from memory, I think his clock may have been fine tuned. Probably one for a ‘micro monday’ post early next season. (someone remind me in time!). He’s a better rider than many.

The selection has stuffed the Hannon horse previously and the other two have a few questions at the moment, O’Meara’s having first start after a wind op. But he’s classy on his day.

Still, hopefully Crowley kicks for home, see ya later, catch me if you can. I don’t think they will. Well, 7/2 was far too big in this race, so i’ll wade in to find out.

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Arthurian Fable – this is it, one last hurrah. Tipped/backed the last twice, i’m now on the edge of the cliff. 4s was two points too big here, he should be a 2s shot I think in this, based on his form. It is the best handicapping form in the race, esp that Ascot run which was very good given his draw/no cover wide for an age/a tad lit up. That race is working out well. LTO I thought he had no excuse from the front but in hindsight it was soft again. All of his runs this season have had cut in the ground and this son of Sea The Stars gets good to firm for the first time in his career. His offspring’s record on GF is better than the overall win SR. Whether he wants it or not, we shall see, but it is a reason for why he could run better. He also goes up in trip again and he’s never been stopping in any of his races to date, inc LTO. And he gets Ryan Moore (i’m a big fan, as I am of Spencer…!) who may be able to dictate affairs here. This race doesn’t look as deep as LTO to my eyes, and certainly is no Royal Ascot handicap. It’s the final time I will back him, so it’s one last go at 4s. There’s a chance he’s a bit soft in the head but I’m not sure. He is still a maiden though and you can only keep making excuses for so long. But, on RPRs, he does come here on the back of a career best LTO. Here’s hoping.

The fav isn’t overpriced, but is the one to beat. I could have track position on him/more class. Take those two out and it is open, some money coming for SDS’ mount.

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Martineo – one from the ‘horses to follow’ section – if you watch that Yarmouth run back, you’ll see why! With a clear run he goes very close to winning. That race has subsequently become a ‘hot race’ for the grade also, producing a few winners both in front and behind. Take out the ‘could be anything’ fav in this (inc ‘could be mediocre’) and it’s a weak/open C5 handicap, no stronger than that Yarmouth run. This horse needs a strong pace to sit off. He is usually ridden patiently and the sort you want a decent price on. He will need luck, he may be flying, but too late. But he’s 10s. There’s potentially a strong pace in this, on paper anyway. 4/5 who can/have led on recent starts. Perfect. The harder they go the better. A strongly run 7f is ideal and he is chucked in now. He’s so well handicapped. Last year he hacked up off 73, then won again off 78. With the claim (and the jockey knows him well) he’s off 69 here. It is only a matter of time and he’s moved through both the last two races like a well handicapped/in-form horse – they didn’t go quick enough for him at Chelmsford, small field, dawdle. He stayed on though and wasn’t knocked about. He’s yet to win on the turf from 9 goes but has gone very close on occasions, in some much better races than this, and including at Sandown. IF he runs his race he will be staying on. I pondered EW given a few going 1/5, 4p but stuck with on the nose. Butler has been going well this season, 1/12, 5 places, 0/7, 3p the last 14 days. About time another got their head in front. I think the market can guide with this yard. In any case, on all known form he should be a 6s shot in this line up imo.

Of the rest… the fav is a Trainer Profiles qual above but too short for me at 5/2 (I know, would you believe it), given his profile. He is the most interesting by a mile in this – he is up against moderate handicappers and ‘could be anything’ , and could bolt up. But, I was happy to leave/take on.

I have had ‘beer money’ on Amy’s at 9s under SDS as he has more upside than a few in here and ran as if he needed it LTO.

Bar those three, I really didn’t like anything else in this. They can all beat me, with a shrug of the shoulders.

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I looked at all the other stats quals, obviously, and may have one or two wrong, but a tipping judgement on price-  Blue Cup, he has handicaps in him at some point this season – he seemed short enough at 5s given I’ve a big going question (Colin!) his French win/form was in soft/heavy, and that’s French soft/heavy. Good to Firm is an unknown – that’s fine if he’s a 10s/12s shot in a race like this, not 5s. He’s also been held up in his races – again, as with Martineo, fine for 10s+, not at 5s in a race like this for me. The yard are a bit chilly at the moment also. He may win though, that’s simply a subjective assessment of price against the knowns, unknowns and the oppo. Only Alone and Hatheem are unexposed, so no shock if either wins, but I had a few niggles at their odds. But, stats quals are stats quals, and if you back any systematically, obviously don’t be put off by those musings!

Backing all Section 2 qualifiers (those without a ‘DNQ’ next to name) was +30 points up as of 1st June- 21st July. The ‘Did not qualifiy’ based on my odds caps, around +24 points up in addition to those, if you ignored the price caps. (I didn’t, darn)

GL, Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Good morning Josh. Don’t surface too often but I would like to thank you for all your
    hard work in making RTP a sucessful place to be again. The dark days of winter are a thing of the past.
    Onward and upwards. Thank again.

    PS. You missed a great night in Liverpool last night.

    1. Well said, it’s a ‘really super’ site, passion for the sport and hard work gets its reward. The stats and angles you look at are just what we need and the new focus on these for tips is working so well. Great to see a happy and successful Josh, long may it continue!

    2. Thanks Charles, (and James)
      yep it was about time we got this place into better shape, as yes at times in last 12/14 months it wasn’t a fun place to be. It only took a global pandemic to give me the space to ponder! I should probably build in a couple of weeks off at start of May or something every year, no horses/blog etc. It seemed to work well this year. But, the content is the best it’s ever been and quite the improvement on what came before, so far. And rather more straight forward.
      Onwards.
      Josh

  2. Looks like a few are putting up Martineo it has become a max bet for me , managed to grab 10-1 with BV 4p bog now 8-1 most places paying 4 of course it might drift out again after the rush to get on after Josh put it up 🙂

      1. well, we are in exultant company! Poor horse, that’s an extra bit of weight on his back.
        I do hope Mr Butler/owners have got on at a reasonable price to their eyes !

    1. Ha, I don’t have such an impact – maybe I would if tipping the evening before on silly stand out prices (what I call ‘account closer’) – plenty of value to be had in the morning, and prices have generally held in this purple patch. 10s still around with bet365/888, was 1 or 2 other places for 15 mins after posting. Unless tipped by an Andy Holding/Hugh Taylor, or some idiot dives in on betfair at this time in the day (only acceptable in a big C2 with masses of liquidity!) I suspect that will be steady and may well drift out.

      You did land on a nice winner yesterday, so for now i’ll let you off being the curse haha. GL

  3. Wednesday 0/1.

    Thursday picks:

    5.00 Pontefract, Salsada – first time in a handicap, first run on turf, Should get an easy lead, trainer had decent course form.
    5.35 Pontefract, Hatheen – first time in a handicap, trainer in form, will go from the front and try to stay there.
    6.30 Sandown, Sir Roderic, course and distance winner, in decent form, likes to lead, draw OK.

    Good luck Martin

  4. another blank day only managing a 3rd place off the list but thanks to josh and Co my feeble efforts are being payed for.
    on to today
    pontefract
    15:50 She can boogie / Saluti
    15:20 Dark vision / Berenger
    Sandown
    19:00 Stag horn / indigo lake.

    My picks
    she can boogie
    stag horn

    good luck every one

  5. Sat in waiting for a delivery might prove expensive as i’m looking too much at today’s cards far to much.
    Uttoxeter.
    1-40. Alanjou 16-1, still high in the weights but gets his ground conditions and has won in better grades
    2-10. Sirobbie 8-1 outsider of 4 makes his chasing debut and if taking to the bigger obstacles might be the value bet.
    a few i’ve noticed at Leopardstown that might be worth another look.
    2-00. Scholastic
    2-30. Ocean Air
    3-00. Munfallet
    3-30. Raise You
    4-00. Lyrical Attraction
    4-30. Time Stands Still

  6. Looked at todays 6:30 at sandown last night and liked MARTINEO but I got a sneaky feeling BLAME CULTURE is gona have a good run for once on the turf after good form on AW and Dropped to a really low mark…..so I’ve done both!
    Keep up the good work josh

    1. Gl Christian, thanks for posting. Hopefully the former can get the job done, and that your second one doesn’t do him close home! 🙂

  7. the rest of the pontefract card. as i have a day off
    13:50 zaman jameel / upside down / regional
    14:20 pavers pride / araifjan / lezardrieux
    15:50 heaven forfend / eagle court / exhalted
    16:25 make some magic / whisper not / naked lass
    17:00 mark of gold / salsada
    17:35 squelch / hatheem

    my picks
    araifjan
    exhalted e/w
    whisper not e/w

  8. Great day yesterday for you Josh…well deserved recent success, really pleased for you. ….just reward for all the hard work you put in…long may the run continue..

    Ascot list runner. 16.55. Sand. Third Kingdom.

    No selection today but a fascinating race and hopeful that the form is worth following…am hoping for good runs from Stigwood, Forest Falcon, Hafez and from the Ascot list runner (not sure about the draw?) and the fav One Ruler should be good enough to win on debut but no bet for me as there are some nice pedigrees on display. All the best if playing today….

  9. Martineo’s been in my tracker a while, but I’m convinced he’s a significantly better horse over 6f than a stiff 7f. Thought it interesting he was a self-certificated NR at Kempton at the beginning of the month (code for “he was drawn in the outside box and we didn’t fancy it”). Like you say, he’s so well-handicapped it might not matter, but I was looking forward to seeing him run over 6.

    1. yea maybe, we shall see. I thought he was worth chancing at that price, although the unexposed fav is strong now, so maybe they’ll all be chasing him . When looking through I thought he wanted 7f, maybe not a stiff 7f but he always seems to be running on, inc over Ascots 6f in that C4 last season, not beaten far. And he was doing all his best work late at Newcastle’s stiff 6f. Maybe a proper cavalry charge over a straight 6f would be perfect on that evidence. Did win his maiden over 9f. I’d like to think the trip won’t beat him but maybe he will fade late. He must surely be going very close on his next 3. mark doesn’t need coming down any more, just a question of when oppo/pace set up/conditions are ideal/gets luck in running. He does need plenty to drop right it seems. Anyway, GL if you’re on. He’s got cliff horse written all over him!

      1. Entered again at 7f for Wolves on Sunday, so connections clearly think the trip is right too, as there is a 6f race available. It’s an odd one… Didn’t see today’s race but I take it the wide draw wasn’t much help?

        1. Yea, well he dropped him right out the back, could have stayed straight and tucked in mid div. A couple of pace pushers weren’t beaten that far. He was given too much to do, did move very well again, but that effort caught up with him in final 1/2 furlong. Prob didn’t quite get home over that stiff 7 also so you were right there.

  10. pity about Martineo but Arthurian Fable gives you a nice profit on the day Josh and i managed another 18-1 winner and a 14-1 place from 7 so all in all i’ll take a profit any day of the week. 🙂

  11. Josh I only recently started following you, my first day was Jawaal. So I’m something of a spoiled brat having joined at the start of an upswing. I would like to pick my own winners one day or even just improve my knowledge so I understood what the hell is going on half the time so thanks very much for helping on both fronts. It’s very hard to find a legitimate person within this industry (at least in my experience) so it’s been a breath of fresh air finding you and the group here.

    Cheers!

    1. Thanks for posting Adam, comments like make it all worthwhile.
      You must be the lucky charm!!
      Yea it won’t always be this profitable in such a short space of time. Many a ‘1 point win’ (generally) tipping service would take +80 points over a whole flat or Jumps season, let alone in 2 weeks or so haha.
      There will be a correction at some point but no sign of slowing up just yet. Just about being disciplined and not tipping for sake of it etc.
      And, as with Blue Cup, my subjective tipping eyes will get the odd stats qual wrong. He won like an Evens shot, the bugger.
      Id like to think if you spend any amount of time here you’ll be a better punter than when you started, and picking your own winners is always the most satisfying imo.
      There’s a few good eggs around but agree can be hard to find. And whatever the long term results you’ll get hard graft, transparency and blunt honesty.
      Om we march. And what a fun week ahead, hopefully.
      Josh

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