Tracker Tuesday: 21/07/20

 

In this week’s post there are x3 ‘hot form’ horses for the notebook, and three ‘eye-catchers’ from a race at Doncaster, using Sectional Times. As always i’ll track them all for three runs/stop at a winner, in the ‘horses to follow’ section of the daily posts. Enjoy…

 

Hot-Form Horses

 

Roses Blue

  • 2YO Bay Filly
  • Trainer: Jessie Harrington
  • Hot form race: 2nd, Naas 8th June (5f, Gd-Fm, 16 runners)

 

This filly hasn’t been since this run so I don’t know if there’s been a problem or she’s been sold. In any case this maiden is looking like hot form. Aidan O’Brien thought his winner good enough to pitch into The Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot, where she ran ok in 9th. 5 horses further back in this race have won 6 races between them, including a Group 2 winner. She may not be much of a price next start but this form indicates that Jessie should find a much weaker maiden for this daughter of Kodiac. The dam’s stallion is Shamardal, so the breeding is there to suggest she could develop into a half decent horse. Time will tell.

 

Ebury

  • 4YO Chestnut Gelding
  • Trainer: M Meade
  • Hot form race: 6th, Royal Ascot, Buckingham Palace Handicap 16th June (7f, GS, 23 runners)

 

This handicap, as you may well expect/hope for, is throwing up plenty of subsequent winners. Motakhayel won this comfortably enough come the line and followed up in The Bunbury Cup. So, they were all beaten by an unexposed/well handicapped horse.

Ebury finished 6th here, ‘winning’ his side of 4 runners, on the wrong part of the track. The 7th, 9th and 10th all won on their next starts. A few have placed. It’s shaping up into the best 7f handicap form of the season to date I think. This was only the 7th run of his life and it suggested that he could have a decent 7f handicap in him. I think he’s entered to run in this Saturday’s International Stakes, around the 12/1 mark currently. Depending on his draw/pace set up, he could be one to keep a close eye. Maybe a more patient ride in such races would see him to better effect also. But, he’s got a solid profile and could have a decent pot in him off 96 when it all clicks.

 

Dancinginthewoods

  • 3YO Bay Gelding
  • Trainer: Dean Ivory
  • Hot form race: 4th, Haydock 9th June (7f, Gd, C4 hncp, 12 runners)

 

A moderate enough C4 but this effort and the subsequent form suggests Ivory’s lightly raced son of Garswood has handicaps in him from a mark of 80. The winner has since placed off his revised mark of 82. The 2nd , Mountain Brave, won his next two starts, the latter of those easily off 84 at Windsor on the 20th July. Glen Force has placed twice since and now has a rating of 84. He’s trained by Sir Mark Prescott and while he’s been fancied, shapes as if he wants further than 7f. But he could be worth noting also. So, the four horses in front of Dancinginthewoods have all given substance to his effort here. A couple further back have since won also.

The horse was sent off at 18/1 and was having his first start of the season, hanging a tad under pressure having been keen enough. I’m sure Ivory will get wins from him based on this evidence, adding to his 6f, 16 runner, Newmarket novice success – this race has thrown up 17 winners since. Surely he’ll be winning from this mark sooner rather than later!

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Sectional ‘Eye-Catchers’

I’ve been trawling through the Geegeez results tabs to find a horse/race of note and decided to highlight a race from Doncaster on the 5th July.

It was the 2.50, a C3, 7f, 3YO Only handicap.

The sectionals suggest that we may want to keep the front three onside…

Tiger Crusade (OR 80) / Society Lion (86) / Jumaira Bay (82)

Of course, whether they’re a backable price in future runs, time will tell. But I don’t want to underestimate what they did here.

There is a ‘medium to high’ confidence in the sectional pars for this CD, with a sample race size of 108.

All three were held up, in a race run at a crawl. In theory they were in the wrong place when the tempo quickened, those near the front having gone awfully slow. This race turned into a dash, but these three dashed much faster than the others, against the overall race finishing speed.

All three put in the after-burners and somewhat sprinted to the line from around 3f out. All three ran both the final 2f in sub 12 seconds with perhaps the second, Society Lion, showing the quickest turn of foot from 2 to 1 furlong out. He had to switch around runners and lost plenty of ground. The 3rd came from the clouds.

In theory, with a more evenly run race and/or a faster pace on the front end, they’d have gone through the race more efficiently and been even more impressive. However, what they did here also indicates they can quicken sharply off a mediocre pace, and that’s always a potent weapon and some sign of latent ability/class. This is useful information to know if they turn up in races without much pace on paper. And, if there is more pace/an evenly run race, there should be even more fireworks moving forwards.

I’m still in the learning phase with Sectional Times, and you can find a few videos on my Youtube Channel HERE>>> , which explain more.

We shall see if what these three did ‘on the clock’ has any bearing moving forwards (it doesn’t always work out!), but I suspect all three are well ahead of their marks and they could all be very good in time. I wonder if any will make Listed+ class at some point. It will be fascinating finding out.

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That’s all for this week’s ‘Tracker Tuesday’. As ever, if you enjoy finding your own winners, you can give the excellent Geegeez Gold a go for 30 days for just £1 by clicking the banner below. It’s a superb piece of kit but you’re best diving in yourself and playing around with the tools. The racecards are something else. 

Happy Punting,
Josh

 

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2 Comments

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  • Those sectional times look interesting. When watching replays I do look for horses coming home with a run whether it’s up or down the field. It could prove very useful given my approach.

    warren Bottomley 21/07/20 2:12 PM Reply


  • Very interesting read

    Liam 23/07/20 2:48 PM Reply


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