Daily Members Post: 22/07/20 (complete)

Tips x2 + write ups, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 

(67 tips / 12 wins / 25 places (inc wins) / +81.315 points, advised / +72.23 TBC Betfair SP / multiply the points by your 1 point stake amount)                           

#1 – 2.40 Bath – Motagally1.5 points win –  WON, declared 11/4 > 9/4, +4.125 points 

#2 – 3.50 Yarm – Craigburn – 1 point win –  WON , declared 13/2 , +6.5 points 

As of 8.01 am, that’s all for today, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainers/Sires

2.50 Yarm – High Applause (any) 9/1 UP 16/1

Jim Crowley (any)

2.40 Bath – Motagally H3 11/4 WON 11/4 > 9/4 

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

1.50 Yarm – Grand Canal H1 5/4 WON 5/4> 4/5 

3.50 Yarm – Craigburn 15/2 WON 15/2>13/2 

4.50 Yarm – Ruspers Lad 22/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Motagally –  11/4 is still in x3 places as I type at 8.25 and I thought that was big here – while it’s probably as short as i’ll go I was surprised he wasn’t a 6/4, 7/4 shot or so and I wouldn’t be shocked if he went off at 5/4. We shall see if my shorty value eyes are working but on all known evidence I thought he had a 40-45% chance on paper in this, not a 26.7% which 11/4 would imply. While he’s no world beater – he’s running at Bath after all- he does bring the best recent form into this, and by some way. His return at Newmarket at 5f (short enough) was very good, Jabbarokie winning off 94 having dictated, the selection beating Mountain Peak in a head bob on the line. That horse would win a C3 NTO easily off 88, then chase home our Jawwaal at Ascot off 95 in a 18 runner C2. The ground was also loose enough for him and he wants a tad further. IF he repeats that run he is a 5/4 shot in this line up, off 89. There’s still some upsides in his mark and his last 3 RPRs have been 91, 96, 96. All of his races have produced subsequent winners. LTO at Haydock he ran ok, that was a 0-95 and there were some decent handicappers in that. He darted left at the start, bumped a rival, and was always on the back foot there, in a race where the pace generally held. He made some sort of effort on the wing and it was an ok run. He drops from a decent Haydock C2 handicap into a Bath C3, 0-87 – up against a few rivals who are moving up in class also. He’s speedy and should be able to sit off Corinthia Knight and possibly Tin Hat. He’s stuffed both Dream Today and Amplify at Wolvs a few starts back.

Although Amplify may not like the AW, and he’s won here – he could give me the most to think about and when a Meehan horse is backed it can give me shivers.

I also think he’ll appreciate this rattling fast ground, given his one turf win was on Good to Firm and he hasn’t had that the last twice. Jim Crowley is also here, when he could have ridden one for his boss at Yarmouth – Dane is on that 7/2 shot. This is a bigger pot and he knows the horse well- I think that could be significant.  Charlie and Jim are 3/9, 4p when teaming up at Bath also.

Of the rest… well they only enhance his chance at the odds – Chil Chil was put in Fav, on first start for 300 days. She should be up there but the traders got the prices the wrong way round – the fact she’s returning at Bath leaves a question, given she won a C2 well when last seen. And SDS (retained by owners King Power) is at Yarmouth. (maybe his book of rides is worth a flick through there). I also though this CD may be quick enough for her and she’s usually held up. If she’s a1 she does look the biggest danger but I was happy to take on. The rest are much of a muchness, Corinthia Knight, Wild Edric, Tin Hat and Red Alert all up in class – the first three could all go close, but only IF the selection doesn’t run his race. He’s been so consistent since the blinkers went on, hopefully that continues.

He ticks every box for a 11/4 shot really and that looked big. My brain and my instinct both aligned, the poor sod. My only 1.5 point bet has won so far this season, maybe another on the way… maybe…

*

Craigburn – too big. Just too big. And a dodgy fav to get beat. While it is a class 6 it was one of those horses/races I just looked at and wondered how he was 15/2 (13/2 gen within 5 mins of posting, which is still fine) The odds compilers have over-reacted to that effort LTO. It was so odd I had to check the BHA site/stewards reports to see what happened, as he was sent off 9/2. You can search for any horse on BHA site and for each horse there’s a link to stewards reports, if any exist.

The horse was found to have Thumps – which a quick google tells me is…

…a condition that occurs where there is an irregular spasming of the diaphragm, usually caused by dehydration due to fluid loss + related abnormal electrolyte levels, most often blood calcium

Now, he was upset pre race / keen to start/ keen in the race – and when you put all that together, the effort makes sense. Young Fallon who was on then (a sign of intent maybe) is clearly some horseman, as they all are, to feel something was up.

So, i’m happy to ignore that run and if you do, he’s no 13/2 shot in this race. It could happen again but that would be unlucky. Maybe he’ll be keen again but all built into his price.

He’s an unexposed 3YO who will appreciate this trip and this ground. He ran well on seasonal return over 5f here, ground loose on top, in a 3YO only handicap. His nursery form was solid, esp that Thirsk win. (6f/gd-firm) The yard are in form, the jockey’s in form and trainer/jockey 2/6, 4p when teaming up in last 14 days. 1/8, 5p in Yarmouth handicaps. Jack is also 3/9, 7p in C6, 6f handicaps at Yarmouth also.

The horse is a prominent racer (something that I’m really trying to focus on, bar those big field straight track sprint handicaps) and should be in a no excuses position. I think he’s got one or two to track, but may well take it up early enough, we shall see. Jack is good on the front usually, although went far too hard with my two Kempton pokes the other day.

Of the rest… Prince Casper may win but 2/1 looked short – first run of the season, first run on turf, first run over 6f, the yard 1/35, 5p in last 14 days – The Oisin Murphy factor has really cramped those odds early on. Far too short and just the sort of fav that you need to take on at that price, in my opinion. If he wins, so be it. He is unexposed/more to come but far too many questions – and he’s has been slow away/held up.

So, take him out, and it does become open. Herringswell looked short enough at 7/2 given his inexperienced jockey is 0/16,0p but he rode a good race LTO on him. It could be he wants further now though. Still, he wasn’t over priced. Sandridge Lad is 0/13 on turf and Sparkling Diamond 0/3 – both have various questions at their prices.

Craigburn is the bet in this race, so fingers crossed he can leave that last run behind – it could affect him mentally, and he doesn’t put it in when under the pump, but again, built into the price for me.

They team up with a 5/4 shot in the 1.50, too short for me and he’s usually held up. But, maybe the team will pull up the 17/1 double. Where’s that beer money…It is an awful race and he doesn’t have much to beat.

 

*

Goodwood/Galway Report HERE>>>

New Tracker Tuesday Post (horses to follow) HERE>>>

*

Some of you may enjoy, if you haven’t seen it already…

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. A Charming Thought colt has his first run in a nursery, 430 Catt.
    The owners, RedHotGardogs, think he has potential as a stallion as they named him Fircombe Hall.

  2. Had a look over the water at Ballinrobe and there’s a couple of longshots that might be of interest, both are back to last winning mark and have everything in their favour, of course with these types recent form has been poor but both have won in better company and their not in what could be described in any way as competitive races .
    2-30. Song Of Namibia
    4-00. Kilganer Queen
    both should be around 20-1

  3. poor day yesterday not even a place….

    bath 14:40 tin hat / amplify
    catterick 20:00 jungle speed / indian sounds

    my pick tin hat

    good luck everyone.

  4. Going again how important it is.
    My sole bet today for ON THE BRIDLE is 2.40 Bath Corinthia Knight 5yo
    Has won 12 races from 5f to 1m on GOOD, GOOD/FIRM and FIRM ground and on the AW, Corinthia Knight has had
    49 runs with 12 wins, 6 2nds and 7 3rd
    Never won on gd/sft or soft, so cannot understand how anyone could back a 5yo in these conditions!!!!
    For me anyone who thinks ground conditions do not matter this is an example to prove that it does, hope this is an help to you in your quest to beat the bookie!
    Colin.

    1. GL Colin, although on this occasion not too much given my pick haha – but if he falls in a hole, i’ll cheer yours on – and he will try and make all/i’ll have to pass him I think.

      Going is so tricky – JP McManus is in full agreement with you, publicly at least.

      Many of those at Timeform think going is nonsense – well, the official going – that’s because with their data/times (which is the only way to truly know what the going was that we have) so many official going reports are just wrong, and sometimes wildly so – that’s always influenced me in not getting too hung up on going etc. Obviously if dealing with 5s< say, then i'd agree you'd want to be as confident as you could that the going is spot on. But bigger prices, when dealing with Good/Good to Soft - well, who knows. Many flat horses win on soft/heavy having never raced on it before, Good to Firm is arguably a specialism also. I take it horse by horse/race by race/ price by price. In recent week's I've tried not to have blanket rules - esp going given they use a stick (albeit a computerised one) and the amount of watering etc. Corinthia Knight - I mean he's never won on Gs/Soft because he's never run on it bar one race, that was as a 2YO in the Super Sprint, where he ran ok in 4th. Connections have clearly kept him to Good/Good to firm for a reason - but if he rocked up on Good to Soft and ticked a lot of other boxes (inc being a lone front runner for example) and he was a tasty price, I wouldn't be put off based on those stats. Soft going for him is more an unknown. But I understand many punters don't like unknowns etc. That's the game 🙂 Horses can want softer conditions as they get older also, less pressure on the legs, and their preferences can change- that's can be the case for handicap chasers - and also that going can slow races down for one paced plodders. Some at Timeform think most horses, esp top class ones, will handle most ground. There's no right or wrong on this issue, just a matter of preference and what approach you take to punting/analysis. GL, Josh

      1. Josh are you okay going for the fav in the 2.40 go and see a doctor!!!
        Corinthia Knight only race on soft was 22 July 2017 which i would imagine the heavens opened and changed the going, horses are bred for certain goings, and yes they may run reasonable on soft going like Corinthia then for max confidence of a good run is on the conditions above, where it is proven that it performs on the surface.
        Couple of ideas that have noticed over the past few weeks, when a horse say finished its last race at 20/1 or more then made fav for its next race not noticed one win, these are HCs, could be one for lays which i am not into, could change my mind if you are able to check this out.
        Colin

        1. We will just have to agree to disagree when it comes to ‘going’ and it’s importance etc – or maybe the correct way to put that is – it’s importance when we make punting decisions etc – it’s obviously important – you put more importance in proven form in said going than I do – no right or wrong there 🙂 (although you wouldn’t find me backing a flat horse in heavy who’s only ever raced on good to firm!)

          We both fancy horses in that Bath race who are unproven on ‘Bath Firm’ !! 🙂

  5. A 4/1 winner, a 10/1 place and a loser on Tuesday.

    Only one for Wednesday:

    4.20 Yarmouth, Aswaat – Gosden handicapper at Yarmouth, trainer in form, second run in a handicap on the flat.

    Good luck Martin

  6. Ascot list runners.
    13.10. Bath. Plum Run
    16.30. Cat. Samara Bay.
    18.30. Cat. Science.

    Gd winner yesterday Josh……hope the run continues. No selections today…..slim pickings, hopefully better later in the week. Gd lck with whatever you are backing today.

  7. A few old fav’s
    7pm C Guardia Svizzera ew 25s
    6pm C Kilconquhar ew 25s
    8pm C Duke of Fireneze. 14/1
    3.50 Y Fard 11/1

    3.20 Y Bold Decision/ Wild Flower
    3.50 Y Sparkling Diamond
    2.40 B Corinthia Knight
    6.oo C Our Dave

    Mike

  8. motagally is going on ………… WD JOSH 😉 ………….. no doubting any underlying talent from horse or tipster …….. bravo 🙂 i may retire at this rate !!

        1. just one technical snag …. my wife won’t let me 🙁 ….. although i have just shown her my betfair winnings today .. and she says i can slow down a bit if i like now ( as long as i pay for her new car 🙂 .. if this winning mallarkey continues 🙂
          lgb 🙂
          thanks again .. you are filling the holes of my ovens lack lustreness beautifully …. keep up the rich vein younger more knowledgeable man 🙂

    1. ah, I don’t think Colin meant to do that, and his first comment was tongue in cheek! me backing favs can be a sign i’m under the weather haha. It worked this time.
      He was always demolishing that mediocre bunch if he ran his race.
      I’d have thought my write up would have talked you into it!! 🙂
      Still, if you’re going to miss one, a 11/4, 9/4 shot is the one to miss.
      Given my approach, if you do pick and choose, you do have to be prepared for some pain, as i’ll land on the odd one that doesn’t make much sense
      Josh

  9. Well done. Might want to slow down a little your making us all look crap LOL.
    Fantastic tipping 🙂

    1. Thanks all, as always. You have to enjoy the hot runs!
      Yep, a nice 28/1 double with the two tips, and the two Clover horses 17/1 as per write up.
      You know it’s going well when they’re flying in like that!
      Onwards, Josh
      p.s remember this run when the next -20+ jobbie comes along!

    1. Oh, well, probably a bad time to take notice now haha – there has to be another losing run after this silly run! 🙂
      Josh

  10. Just reiterating what everyone has said Josh…..a massive well done to you, keep up the great work!!!

  11. Great double Josh, timing is not great though! On hols in Spain for last week so missed most of the great run including the 20+ bfsp winner. Maybe I’m your jinx. So if the Rtp crew would like to have a whip round to make me feel better and keep the great run going, I’ll stay another week and miss out on Goodwood?….just an idea

    1. I’m sure at a push that could be arranged 🙂
      Damn, that’s sort of annoying, but I can think of worse places to be when missing out on some winners!
      Josh

  12. well done again Josh things really are looking up when even i manage a winner Kilganer Queen 18-1 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.