2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
(67 tips / 12 wins / 25 places (inc wins) / +81.315 points, advised /
+72.23 TBC Betfair SP / multiply the points by your 1 point stake amount)
#1 – 2.40 Bath – Motagally – 1.5 points win – WON, declared 11/4 > 9/4, +4.125 points
#2 – 3.50 Yarm – Craigburn – 1 point win – WON , declared 13/2 , +6.5 points
As of 8.01 am, that’s all for today, write ups at bottom of post…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
2.50 Yarm – High Applause (any) 9/1 UP 16/1
Jim Crowley (any)
2.40 Bath – Motagally H3 11/4 WON 11/4 > 9/4
Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)
1.50 Yarm – Grand Canal H1 5/4 WON 5/4> 4/5
3.50 Yarm – Craigburn 15/2 WON 15/2>13/2
4.50 Yarm – Ruspers Lad 22/1
4.Horses to Follow
Tips write ups…
Motagally – 11/4 is still in x3 places as I type at 8.25 and I thought that was big here – while it’s probably as short as i’ll go I was surprised he wasn’t a 6/4, 7/4 shot or so and I wouldn’t be shocked if he went off at 5/4. We shall see if my shorty value eyes are working but on all known evidence I thought he had a 40-45% chance on paper in this, not a 26.7% which 11/4 would imply. While he’s no world beater – he’s running at Bath after all- he does bring the best recent form into this, and by some way. His return at Newmarket at 5f (short enough) was very good, Jabbarokie winning off 94 having dictated, the selection beating Mountain Peak in a head bob on the line. That horse would win a C3 NTO easily off 88, then chase home our Jawwaal at Ascot off 95 in a 18 runner C2. The ground was also loose enough for him and he wants a tad further. IF he repeats that run he is a 5/4 shot in this line up, off 89. There’s still some upsides in his mark and his last 3 RPRs have been 91, 96, 96. All of his races have produced subsequent winners. LTO at Haydock he ran ok, that was a 0-95 and there were some decent handicappers in that. He darted left at the start, bumped a rival, and was always on the back foot there, in a race where the pace generally held. He made some sort of effort on the wing and it was an ok run. He drops from a decent Haydock C2 handicap into a Bath C3, 0-87 – up against a few rivals who are moving up in class also. He’s speedy and should be able to sit off Corinthia Knight and possibly Tin Hat. He’s stuffed both Dream Today and Amplify at Wolvs a few starts back.
Although Amplify may not like the AW, and he’s won here – he could give me the most to think about and when a Meehan horse is backed it can give me shivers.
I also think he’ll appreciate this rattling fast ground, given his one turf win was on Good to Firm and he hasn’t had that the last twice. Jim Crowley is also here, when he could have ridden one for his boss at Yarmouth – Dane is on that 7/2 shot. This is a bigger pot and he knows the horse well- I think that could be significant. Charlie and Jim are 3/9, 4p when teaming up at Bath also.
Of the rest… well they only enhance his chance at the odds – Chil Chil was put in Fav, on first start for 300 days. She should be up there but the traders got the prices the wrong way round – the fact she’s returning at Bath leaves a question, given she won a C2 well when last seen. And SDS (retained by owners King Power) is at Yarmouth. (maybe his book of rides is worth a flick through there). I also though this CD may be quick enough for her and she’s usually held up. If she’s a1 she does look the biggest danger but I was happy to take on. The rest are much of a muchness, Corinthia Knight, Wild Edric, Tin Hat and Red Alert all up in class – the first three could all go close, but only IF the selection doesn’t run his race. He’s been so consistent since the blinkers went on, hopefully that continues.
He ticks every box for a 11/4 shot really and that looked big. My brain and my instinct both aligned, the poor sod. My only 1.5 point bet has won so far this season, maybe another on the way… maybe…
Craigburn – too big. Just too big. And a dodgy fav to get beat. While it is a class 6 it was one of those horses/races I just looked at and wondered how he was 15/2 (13/2 gen within 5 mins of posting, which is still fine) The odds compilers have over-reacted to that effort LTO. It was so odd I had to check the BHA site/stewards reports to see what happened, as he was sent off 9/2. You can search for any horse on BHA site and for each horse there’s a link to stewards reports, if any exist.
The horse was found to have Thumps – which a quick google tells me is…
…a condition that occurs where there is an irregular spasming of the diaphragm, usually caused by dehydration due to fluid loss + related abnormal electrolyte levels, most often blood calcium
Now, he was upset pre race / keen to start/ keen in the race – and when you put all that together, the effort makes sense. Young Fallon who was on then (a sign of intent maybe) is clearly some horseman, as they all are, to feel something was up.
So, i’m happy to ignore that run and if you do, he’s no 13/2 shot in this race. It could happen again but that would be unlucky. Maybe he’ll be keen again but all built into his price.
He’s an unexposed 3YO who will appreciate this trip and this ground. He ran well on seasonal return over 5f here, ground loose on top, in a 3YO only handicap. His nursery form was solid, esp that Thirsk win. (6f/gd-firm) The yard are in form, the jockey’s in form and trainer/jockey 2/6, 4p when teaming up in last 14 days. 1/8, 5p in Yarmouth handicaps. Jack is also 3/9, 7p in C6, 6f handicaps at Yarmouth also.
The horse is a prominent racer (something that I’m really trying to focus on, bar those big field straight track sprint handicaps) and should be in a no excuses position. I think he’s got one or two to track, but may well take it up early enough, we shall see. Jack is good on the front usually, although went far too hard with my two Kempton pokes the other day.
Of the rest… Prince Casper may win but 2/1 looked short – first run of the season, first run on turf, first run over 6f, the yard 1/35, 5p in last 14 days – The Oisin Murphy factor has really cramped those odds early on. Far too short and just the sort of fav that you need to take on at that price, in my opinion. If he wins, so be it. He is unexposed/more to come but far too many questions – and he’s has been slow away/held up.
So, take him out, and it does become open. Herringswell looked short enough at 7/2 given his inexperienced jockey is 0/16,0p but he rode a good race LTO on him. It could be he wants further now though. Still, he wasn’t over priced. Sandridge Lad is 0/13 on turf and Sparkling Diamond 0/3 – both have various questions at their prices.
Craigburn is the bet in this race, so fingers crossed he can leave that last run behind – it could affect him mentally, and he doesn’t put it in when under the pump, but again, built into the price for me.
They team up with a 5/4 shot in the 1.50, too short for me and he’s usually held up. But, maybe the team will pull up the 17/1 double. Where’s that beer money…It is an awful race and he doesn’t have much to beat.
Goodwood/Galway Report HERE>>>
New Tracker Tuesday Post (horses to follow) HERE>>>
Some of you may enjoy, if you haven’t seen it already…