Daily Members Post: 21/07/20 (complete)

Tips x3 + write ups, Quals, new report

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(10/65,23p, +70.69, +70.26 BFSP)

#1 – 5.00 Sand – Pop Dancer – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365) 7/2 (WH/BetfS/PP) WON 7/2 > 7/2 SP, 5.3 BFSP

#2 – 7.45 Sand – Kaloor – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 9/2 – he ran as if needing 2 miles there! Stayed on well again, unless he will always just flatter to decieve.

#3 – 8.15 Sand – Monjeni – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP 17/2 – hmm, he’s clearly a bit of a character, didn’t run much of a race there, make all winner so probably outpaced. Will be interesting back up in trip given that form LTO/form of yard.

That’s all, x3, (#1/2 as of 8am) as of 9am, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.45 Chep – Daheer (any, 9/2< best) 7/4 UP

6.05 Sand – Harlow (9/1<) H1 15/8 UP

6.40 Sand – Amir Kabir (any) (x2 angles) H4 13/2 3rd

6.40 Sand – Enemy (any, 20/1< best) H1 11/8 2nd

7.45 Sand – Kaloor (16/1<) 8/1 UP

8.15 Sand – Archimento (16/1<) 50/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

8.15 Sand – Monjeni (9/1<) H2 7/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jim Crowley (any)

3.45 Chep – Daheer 7/4 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot-Form

5.00 Sand – Pop Dancer (1st run) H4 7/2 WON 7/2 

 

5.Other/Updates

NEW Report: Goodwood + Galway… READ HERE>>> 

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Tips write ups…

Pop Dancer – he ran in a ‘hot’ C3 LTO, 3/9,4p since inc horses in front of him and behind him. He won at Ponte’s 5f for previous connections as a 2YO and shaped well over 6f at times – in that context and having watched that last run back I thought Goodwood’s 5f was a tad too speedy, he seemed flat out/tapped for toe 2f out, and that this stiffer 5f, with some pace to sit off, could play to his strengths. He’s got the fewest miles on the clock in this, knows how to win, and that form LTO, some of his 2YO RPRs (hit 90 twice) and his unexposed profile suggest 80 is workable. He’s dropped in class here and I thought he should be fav. He was 9/2 or so but the then fav was withdrawn, and I concluded 7/2 was still value. Our Oystercatcher is the Fav and a repeat of LTO here may well be good enough – but he is only running up to his mark and is open to attack from something more progressive and/or a tad more class. I think Pop Dancer offers that potential. At least now Tom doesn’t have to beat his better half in a close finish, now Hollie’s is out! It does look a tight race where a few could go well on their day, but the selection looks the most interesting to me.

Kaloor – he’s hit the DM Trainer Profile stats every time he’s run this season I think. This is all about the trip, and the jockey –  Buick gets the leg up (him and Oisin have ridden Sandown better than anyone in the last year I think) – he’s riding with plenty of confidence and is all class for me. This horse shapes as if he’s well worth a go over 1m6f and I think he could relish it – at the price I was happy to find out in what felt an open race to me – no bombproof shorty that’s hard to get beat. He won over 8f as a 2YO and shaped a few times over 12f for Meehan as if this could be his trip in time, esp that Ascot run four starts back. He is up in class here but I’m not concerned by that at the odds, I think he’s the ability to get involved and has some upside potential from this mark. He hit the line hard enough LTO, although well beat, and the sectionals showed an ability to quicken off a steady pace. In a race that could be falsely run that could be important, as could the jockey. The stats (esp imapct value) suggest i’ve got one of the best in the last couple of years onside here, as would his course stats and recent form.

The dangers… well a few I suppose, Hochfeld is thrown in on old form and if he bounces back here could hack up – and PJ may get to set his own fractions. I didn’t think ground was an excuse LTO given previous form on soft. He had a long time off and a chance he’s not the same horse, or they’ve just been running him into fitness. I don’t know what his injury was either but this fast ground may pose a question if it was anything to do with his legs. But, he could make 5s look tasty.

Monjeni – he just looks solid here and at long last the Ian Williams stable is showing signs of life – i’m hopeful for a good few weeks ahead for their string. He is overpriced at 7s here for me, being the only proven stayer in the race – he gets further, again i’ll have to trust in Buick but he does have a stiff climb to the line to help. And he’s done well over this sort of trip before. Based on that last run he’s still got plenty of zest aged 7 and that was one of his top 3 best ever RPRs from what I can see. Again, he showed some solid closing sectionals LTO against par (although questionable sample size) and the horse he chased home there, Dubious Affair, was/is in the form of her life, having since won a C2 on Sunday. That is solid form in this line up and I thought even a repeat of that staying on effort there makes him a 4/5s shot in this line up. All conditions are fine, it’s maybe whether he just gets tapped for toe at the wrong stage, in what could be another tactical race. He beat Zuba comfortably enough in that Donny race, and although he’s ran ok sine, I don’t understand the price disparity as he came into that having had a run, and Monjeni didn’t. Hughie’s is unexposed but still has questions for a 4s shot (being well backed though, so a big run must be expected). Happy to take him on and if he beats me, so be it. This is only the 5th run of his life. The rest have enough questions also, inc Kirk’s who has stamina to prove and Alan King’s is a 15 race maiden – but Hollie may work her magic – remember when teaming up with Alan they’re 5/16,7p +64 in the last year. Still, 5s looked short enough for him.

So, that’s that. Hopefully the first one can go in, profit made, and then one of the final two! The first one should be up there, the latter two – I’ll trust in Buick’s clock, hopefully he doesn’t have them too far back but in the context of their races, the prices looked worth chancing. GL.

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Plenty of punting propositions today:
    105 Prince of Rome – dropped in grade
    415 General Brook – loves this CD and gets weak oppos.
    525 Paris Protocol – down from the north for this test, shown the requisite stamina over hurdles
    745 Hochfeld – lesser rivals here in ideal conditions
    A chance of an EW L15.
    May the profits be with you.

  2. No joy Monday -0/2!

    Tuesday picks.
    5.35 Sandown, Geranium – drops to class 5 here, course and distance winner, Dane O’Neill back in the saddle who rode him when he was last winning.
    6.55 Perth, Purple King – course and distance winner, winner in this class, Dr newland send up to Perth as part of his team.
    8.00 Perth, Lough Kent – another course and distance winner, likes to come from off the pace which should suit in this race, 7LB claimer on board to take weight off and give him a change of jockey.

    Good luck Martin

  3. My Systems (73) NH HORSES ON CHEEKPIECE DEBUT WIV APPROVED TRAINER
    4.10 Perth 7 Accost (IRE) Fox, Derek R Russell, Miss Lucinda V 67.00
    8.30 Perth 12 Mill Island (IRE) Coltherd, Sam W Coltherd, W S 67.00

    both trainers have a good record with ckpcs fto ??? will be doing my usual 4tbp on bf 😉 .. which will enevitably mean they come 5th !! 🙁

    gl lgb 🙂
    waiting for more winners to flood in !! 🙂

  4. Just a 3rd place yesterday and that was at 4/1.
    The 3 c3 and above are all at sandown this evening
    18:40 sea trout reach / it’s good to laugh
    19:15 Dubai fountain / feathers
    19:40 Diocletian / amazing red.

    My pic. Feathers e/w

    Good luck everyone.

  5. Ascot list runners:
    14.15. Chep. Wholelotafun
    16.25. Sand. Zoetic
    19.15. Sand. Setarhe

    Had a look at the 14.15 Chepstow and cannot see Wholelotafun placing let alone winning. Sun Festival sets a very good standard and can see this winning but too short for me to back. Coul Queen may be one to take against the fav but the Evans yard 7% with two y/o according to RP stats which is around 12/1 or 14/1 not the current 8/1 on offer and BSP 10.5 so not value at the current prices available so no bet. Some nice pedigrees on offer, Full Marks and Ayo Patsy amongst those but Prescott 0/13 and Osbourne 0/8 with 2 yo so not even the prices tempt me to bet. Will look at the other two races and post again later.

    1. 16.25. Sand.
      Selection: Perfect Sunrise currently10/3.

      This is preferred to the Ascot list runner Zoetic as Perfect Sunrise comes out of the Sky Sports Racing HD Virrgin 535 Fillies Novice Stakes 2yo race run at Windsor 6/7 earlier this month…the form has just been franked in the 13.40 at Chepstow this afternoon with Shrara winning ….Perfect Sunrise was about 5.5 lengths in front of Shrara on that day with Shrara 10.5 lengths behind the winner of that race, Caroline Dale, and today has just clocked 38.59 mph winning the 13.40 at Chepstow.
      Perfect Sunrise in that Windsor race clocked 38.60 mph….so would expect Perfect Sunrise to win, hence the selection. Dangers are Ventura Diamond the unraced horse from the Fahey yard who can ready a 2yo newcomer and Miss Jungles along with Zoetic…the latter two ae closely matched on speed but, according to my figures, would need to improve to beat my selection…fingers crossed Perfect Sunrise wins.

      1. Well Coul Queen wins at BSP 13.00!! should have made that my selection but that is the way it goes so just watch Perfect Sunrise get beat!!

        1. 19.15. Sand. Fev Rover should win this with Concessions as the e/w value based on my figures and the latter being hampered last time out. Cannot see the Ascot list runner Setarhe winning this especially as the filly flashed her tail so attitude maybe suspect and would not back the horse at 3/1 as too short. Just a pity that there are only 7 runners, so no bet for me as only two places on offer.

          Good lck with whatever you are backing today.

      2. Well it had to happen Perfect Sunrise got beat, very disappointing run…..runnng total plus 6.35 after that loss. back tomorrow

  6. You’ve done it again Josh, well done! There will be a beer voucher heading your way! 🙂

    1. Thanks both,
      ha cheers Mark and cheers again!
      We won’t get too excited over 7/2 shots but they all count, and in smaller fields have to adjust price points down. He’s paid for the other two with left overs (although i’m bullish enough that at least one of them will go very close, looks like i’m beating SP anyway) and I was rather happy with how I read him / the hot form/ what my eyes told me watching LTO / his stiff track form. Maybe i’ll make a flat tipster out of me yet! 🙂
      A +1.5 point day whatever, but hopefully one of others can go in.
      Josh

  7. Well there’s money to be made in that part of the market if you read the form as well as you are doing at the moment. I had a free fiver from Skybet on it and if the trixie comes in the beer voucher will grow beerier!

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