Daily Members Post: 18/07/20 (complete)

Tip x4 + write ups, Sat Quals, Trends pointers

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tip

(8/56,21p, +52.15, +59.93  TBC BFSP)

#1 – 2.30 York – Dark Jedi – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen, 1/5, 5p gen) (6p SkyB/WH) 4th, +2.2

#2 – 2.30 York – Caradoc – 1 point EW – 6/1 (Bet365/BetfS/PP/Betf) (1/5, 5p) UP, -2

#3 – 3.40 York – Gold Souk – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP -1

#4 – 4.00 Newb – Mums Tipple1 point win – 14/1 (gen) Up -1

that’s all for today, x4 tips (6 point outlay), as of 09.55, write ups incoming…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.30 York – Great Example (10/1<) 9/1 UP

2.50 Newb – Tomorrow’s Dream (10/1< guide) H4 2/1 2nd

3.40 York – Al Muffrih (12/1< guide) 13/2 UP

3.40 York – Make My Day (16/1<) 7/1 WON 7/1>10/1 

4.20 Hayd – Harlow (9/1<) 5/1 

6.35 Bath – Shoot To Kill (8/1<) H1 5/2

7.25 Hayd – Space Walk (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H1 2/1

7.25 Hayd – Dragons Voice (16/1<) 28/1 ‘DNQ’

7.55 Hayd – Jahbath (10/1< guide) 9/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

4.00 Newb – Mums Tipple 14/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any)

2.50 Newb – Huboor H2 7/2 UP

4.00 Newb – Tabdeed 8/1 WON 8/1>4/1 

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot-Form

1.55 York – Ranch Hand (3rd run) H3 15/2 UP

5.00 Newb – Casina Di Notte (1st run) 10/1 3rd 10/1> 20/1 (jockeys 1st ride in public, he hacks up there with a more exp pilot on)

Losing Tips

2.30 York – Afaak (1st run) 20/1 UP

5.15 Curragh – David Garrick (1st run) 11/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

 

Sat trends/stats/trainer pointers…

 

2.30 York: John Smiths Cup

Trends/Stats Shortlist

Looking at those who were moving up in trip from last start, had yet to win beyond 1m3.5f and who’d had 2-4 runs in previous 90 days… (caution with said ‘rest pattern’ stat, but it was only one to leave any sort of workable shortlist to muse over!)… leaves 9/12 (9/92, 21p)

Fifth Position H1 / Harrovian/ Tinandali / Dark Jedi / Archie Perkins / Nicholas T

Those without a career win (one such winner last 12 years, and thus not covered in that ‘max distance win’ stat) but who are moving up in trip/ 2-4 runs prev 90 days… (1/1 last 12)

Baltic Baron / Wait Forever

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Those with 5< runs in handicaps is a big positive…

Fifth Position H1/ Great Example / Sinjaari WON / Tinandali / Wait Forever

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Trainers (to have won race in last 12 years, with runners)

  • Solid Stone H4
  • Fifth Position H1
  • Desert Icon H3 / Sinjaari WON
  • Pivoine / Good Birthday
  • Euchen Glen/ Nicholas T

 

3.40 York -1m4f C3 Handicap

Trends/Stats Shortlist

Those to have raced in a race restricted to 3YO+ or 3YO Only LTO (10/12, 10/62, 21p) leaves…

Make My Day WON  / Al Muffrih/ Gold Souk

Trainers (to have won race in last 12 years, with runners)

  • Make My Day WON
  • Arctic Fox H2
  • Elector
  • Gold Souk
  • Secretarial

 

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2.30 York 

Dark Jedi – he’s on the walk in this, out to 20s now, so the force may not be with us (i’ll get my coat) and maybe much bigger can be snaffled on the machine/BFSP as can often be the case with bigger priced horses in these big handicaps. We shall see. Anyway, this horse fits my ‘trends’ for the race and out of that initial shortlist he looked the most interesting. They may well not hold up of course but said approach helped me land on Jawwaal last Saturday. He’s unexposed and seemingly in the form of his life. He had some ok form for Charlie Hills but Tim Easterby has worked his magic and he’s now blossoming. He won easily LTO come the line, beating a 90 horse who’d had the run of the race. I thought he may enjoy the big field/likely strong pace here. It could be this is just a step too high/beyond him, but he arrives in form/looks progressive/ahead of his mark to me, and you can’t say that about too many in this.

Caradoc – I’ve been through this race in some depth and in the end I concluded he could well bolt up and 6s is more than fair. He is the only tip today not listed on this page somewhere but I’m in no doubt he’s got a fair bit in hand and could develop into more than a handicapper this season. His return at Epsom was eye-catching. It was a ride/run which suggested this race was the main target, indeed connections felt he’d need it and he was ridden sympathetically – he fell out of his wide stall and was held up last, in a moderately run race to the eye. Oisin still hadn’t moved 3f out which was strange. When he did get stuck in (but didn’t knock him around) he somewhat flew past plenty with ease. Give the replay a watch if you haven’t. If he runs his race (always a niggle with a 14 day return after seasonal return) i’ll be in shock if he’s not in the places/going very close, and if James times it right I think he’ll hit the front at some stage. He is the most fascinating in this for me and could be the best handicapped. He is ‘obvious’ but sometimes obvious is best.

Of the rest… the other two biggies I looked at were Good Birthday and Tinandali – O’Meara doesn’t have a great record in this as yet and I thought that Caradoc would beat him (and everything else that ran in that Epsom race). Good Birthday’s form is solid – that running on 3rd in The Cambridgeshire may well be the best piece of handicapping form in this race. He does have an inexperienced jockey on and is drawn widest of all (not impossible from there though). I thought there was a chance the ground may be quick enough and LTO was a moderate run, although he’s never run well at Ascot and that trip stretched him. He is the sort that i’m likely to throw beer money at on the machine, just in case i’ve got him wrong.

I didn’t really like anything else at the odds. I’d rather be on Caradoc at 6s than Great Exhibition at 9s, given the break/fitness question. And the former beat him fair and square in that Newbury race last season. But if he’s A1, in theory they should be close together in this. I wasn’t that enthusiastic for Solid Stone or Harrovian but i won’t be shocked if they run a big race, as the market suggests. Neither was I for Fifth Position at 8s although he’s drifting a bit – he’s got a question on the ground if this is quick. But he’s unexposed and did it well come the line LTO. The rest can beat me.

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Gould Souk –

MJ is 6/17, 10p in this race and Fanning is 3/7,5p. He also hits my very limited stats/trends pointer above. What with that, the form of the yard and his unexposed profile, I found it hard to leave him at 12s. It’s clearly a race MJ targets and it’s interesting enough he’s only got one in it. The horse… well he’s a few questions now but it’s the first time he’s raced on ground with ‘firm’ in the description for a while and the times from Haydock LTO suggest it was on the softer side of Good. He could be transformed on this surface, and he’s had a bit of a longer break. There’s a chance they try more patient tactics also, in an attempt to inspire a better performance/see out the trip. Much like the they did with Glenties at Windsor. His form is solid, his Newmarket maiden 3rd was behind a horse now rated in the low 100s. He took a false step at Goodwood around 5f from home, game over. The fact MJ ran him there would suggest they thought he was one of their better ones.  He then bolted up at Epsom over 9f, GF, the last time he faced quick ground. He’s regally bred and related to some good horses, including Dee Ex Bee. I’m sure he will prove much better than 85 at some point, maybe today. This is an open race and while I wouldn’t begrudge Jamie Spencer a win on his return, 12s has lured me in.

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Mums Tipple –

Well as I write this Richard Hoiles has just tweeted there’s a noticeable headwind at Newbury – his chance may be diminished further if Ryan is ultra aggressive with no cover – although in any case it may not matter! This is a poke but I couldn’t resist 14s. There’s a chance he hasn’t trained on but his York sales race win still lives in the memory, and it was eye popping on ‘the figures’ (RPR/TS). This season hasn’t really gone to plan but he has been pitched in the deep end, starting in the 2000G. They dropped him back to a more suitable 6f LTO at Ascot but the ground was far too soft. Hannon sounds like he regrets running him. However, he showed his customary zip and comfortably led the field to halfway. That was also another G1 and he’s in much calmer waters today – in a race with a few well fancied ones who are stepping out of handicap company, which is some indication of the drop in class I think. It’s an open Group 3 on paper and he should appreciate this better ground. Ryan Moore gets the leg up, the first time since that blistering York effort. He could make plenty of difference. It could well be he just falls in a hole again 2f from home but i’ll pay to find out. If he does his owners will be opening another bottle of something very strong, having turned down 3 million+ or so after that York win. Gulp.

If he does bomb out, i’ll happily cheer one of the old boys home- you wouldn’t begrudge The Tin Man another victory and it could well set up for him.

Best of luck, as always.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Swear to the almighty I came up with this completely independently

    14.40 DARK JEDI 40% ew (80% total) of max bet 18/1 with 6 places

    1. My other selections which are all at 10% of max stakes ew (20%) total

      4.00 Newbury TINTO a rapidly improving 4yo sprinter, ridiculous that Summerghand who was behind him earlier is stronger in the market. Summerghand an exposed handicapper. Tinto just tried G3 at Sandown over 5 furlongs on his last start. He was held up there and stormed home. Back to 6 furlongs today, hoping they repeat the hold up tactics. 12/1 with 4 places was massive I thought

      13.55 York EAGLES BY DAY 10/1 Third in the King Edward VII 2019. Looks a stayer, totally unsuited by soft going in the Hardwicke. Step up in trip on better ground exactly what he needs. If not today then in near future, trainer will find opportunities for him. Probably needs 2 miles.

      15.25 Newbury VIVID DIAMOND Johnston yard keeps banging in winners. Three year olds may dominate here, but this 4yo has been mixing it constantly with the males. Back to a Mares race it represents a big drop in grade. 6/1`

      19.55 Haydock WAR GLORY old boy facing some younger types from fancy yards. Ran in the red hot Buckingham Palace at RA. Dropped 5lb and they put a boy on taking off another 5lb. Has run well more than once over C&D off similar marks. 20/1 is just way too big

  2. A 7/1 winner and 3 losers on Friday,

    Saturday picks:

    2.30 York, Sinjaari, trainer in form, low weight, could be a group horse?
    3.05 York, Que Amoro, course and distance winner, trainer in form, will improve for first run of the season;
    3.40 York, Arctic Fox, up in distance here, course winning form, pace preference of race suits running style;
    5.00 Newbury, Casina Di Notte, solid form in the class of the race, 7LB claimer takes off weight in a handicap where he has dropped to a winning mark.

    Good luck Martin

    1. Well done Martin, I thought the booking of Donohoe was intriguinG.
      Performed like a group type too!

  3. In the 4.00 at Newbury
    iv backed Repartee 7s with 365 and don’t think that will last. Won well last out and wasn’t stopping. Could come on a bit also poss, for the run and just being younger unexposed, time from that race puts him up there and receiving weight, do think Judicial would of been my pick again after last time but I’m not having him giving 8lbs to Repartee. Would give Tinto a shout of causing a shock from the front but not with Watson on think his style seems to be to hold up where think Tinto best going forward

    York- 2.30, like Desert icon for Haggas, won very well last time out and even tho rise in the weights decent not sure would stop him well hopefully not, cheekpeices kept on and can have good faith that Marquand gets a good position from a decent draw and hopefully stays on stronger than anything else much like his last win.

    3.05 I was thinking that pick would be Equalateral at first glance but then a quick look at Que Amoro and I can’t see this getting beat. Getting weight surely this is just going to hit the front and not get caught really would be the bet of the day for me, I know 7/2 not the biggest price but not being rushed kept at listed level and already 2 wins at the track. Actually thought the race was much of a muchness, you know Major Jumbo top horse will hit the front and try to stay there, El Astronaute a strange one can be mighty impressive but doesn’t seem to back up wins, prolly stuck in between levels I don’t think he’ll place. Alpha delphini surely being taken care of can’t see being bang ready to go first start although would be up there if was, think Equalateral will get done for pace with the fav, may make up ground but race will already be over I think.

    Done the Que Amoro – Repartee double you never know

    Good luck everybody hope for a happy Saturday

  4. I have 5 accounts and i don’t think i’ve ever seen such difference in price between them, went to have a small ew on Three Little Birds Bath 6-05 and it is priced 12,16,18,20,28’s, taken the 28’s obviously will be interesting to see what happens when markets form during the morning.

  5. Got 8 today, let’s see how we get on, congratulations to Josh finding form again, as everyone knows I don’t particularly like the flat, so, I’m looking more to Galway at the end of the month, anyways today’s selections.
    14:30 York
    HARROVIAN 1pt win 9/1 gen
    PIVOINE 1pt win 12/1 gen

    15:25 Newbury
    VIVID DIAMOND 1pt win 6/1 gen
    HYANNA 1pt win 11/1 gen

    15:40 York
    ALL MUFFRIH 1pt win 7/1 gen
    MAKE MY DAY 1pt win 8/1 gen

    18:15
    GULLIVER 1pt win 6/1 gen
    GUNMETAL 1pt win 16/1 gen

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound, good luck with your selections today!

  6. A treble for the Meade yard:
    1245 Clareyblue
    215 Method
    410 Owney Madden
    230 I can’t resist a bet on Euchen Glen who could take the field apart, as in 2018, from the front.

  7. 2.30Y SOLID STONE 7/1 Stoute hasn’t the greatest record in this race 17-1. but won it 3yrs ago.
    This horse is decent and seems to be moving up a gear.
    18.15C LAUGH A MINUTE 13/2 More persuaded by the Spotlight writer in the post. He says its a confidant vote to land the spoils
    18.55H START TIME 8/1 Prime Conditions… good to soft, soft 7f not straight. Flat track | OR 82 or less All wins between JULY – October… 5 from 8 when these stats align.

  8. Todays Quality races. observations from video replays.

    Newbury
    14:15 bowman / imperial yellow / kraken power
    14:50 tomorrows dream / graceful magic
    15:25 vivid diamond / hyanna / la lune
    16:00 shine so bright / summerghand / tinto

    york
    13:55 universal order
    14:30 desert icon / good birthday / caradoc / sky defender
    15:05 que amoro / al raya / el atronaute
    15:40 make my day / artic fox / wheres jeff
    16:10 edraak / athollbair boy / owney madden / glenamoy lad

    haydock
    19:55 cap francais / alternative fact / streak lightning

    my picks.
    kraken power 14:15 newb
    good birthday 14:30 york
    shine so bright 16:00 newb

    good luck everyone

  9. Still ticking along nicely Josh, hopeful the run continues today. All the best.
    Ascot List runners:

    13.05. Newb. Rainbow Fire
    13.40. Newb. Saraparilla.
    14.15. Newb. Mighty Gurkha
    16.35. Bath. Living on a Dream.

    No selections today. Life got in the way of any analysis.

  10. *****************************
    BAKERY HORSES OF NOTE :
    *****************************
    3.40 Yor MAYFAIR SPIRIT = Horse notes : conditions of race look good to me = e/w
    4.00 New TIS MARVELLOUS = Horse notes … could be upto this level over 6f (needs 6f now ) = small e/w
    5.55 Hay DAPPER MAN = trainer in form / blinkers now on .. just needs ground to keep drying out = e/w
    6.55 Hay START TIME = horse to follow in my notes under these conditions = e/w

    not tips or out of any of my ovens just staright off the counter fancies 🙂

    have a nice day now one n all 🙂
    let’s have a Dapper Day !!!
    lgb

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