Daily Members Post: 15/07/20 (complete)

ALL Tips x4 + write ups, Quals…

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(7/49,18p, +46.5, +56.34 BFSP)

#1 – 2.10 Yarm – Mr Kiki – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) WON 11/1 > 8/1 

#2 – 7.45 Kemp – Too Shy Shy – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) UP /4th (some payed 4th for EW players)  18/1 – hmm, much like with Private Matter, done far too much on front/pace pressure, read that wrong – she’s a make all win in her again, maybe back to Lingfield – so much early speed. Balding horse finished just behind her again. 

#3 – 2.50 Catt – Strong Power – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen)UP 11/2 – a value loser!…poor run, did get trapped wide/shuffled back, not sure he handled coming down hill, looked uncomfortable up the straight, a line through that, but he’ll go into the losing tips pile for next three starts! He will win races with him, if he’s the same horse – not sure what injury was, but a chance he’s ‘remembering ‘ it when under the pump – head looked awkward under pressure there, hung over to rail. 

#4 – 5.10 Kemp – Private Matter – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/888) 9/1 (BV) UP 6/1 UP

 

ALL Tips x4, as of 9am, write ups at bottom of post… see if you agree with me, prefer my danger horses, or think i’ve lost my mind… all possible…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.10 Yarm – Mr Kiki (16/1<) 11/1 WON 11/1>8/1 

2.50 Catt – Strong Power (8/1<) 9/1 ‘DNQ’ (as of 8am, given 1st run of season, market ‘may’ guide) UP 11/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)

5.10 Kemp – Private Matter 12/1 UP

7.45 Kemp – Too Shy Shy H3 11/1 UP (4th, did well considering looked to go hard/pace pressure)

8.15 Kemp – Johnny Utah 12/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

3.50 Catt – The Dancing Poet (1st run) H1 2/1 WON 2/1 > 9/4 SP

6.10 Kemp – Rum Baba (2nd run) 4/1 UP I don’t think he’s trained on, disappointing so far.

 

 

5.Other/Updates

 

Tracker Tuesday... two new videos looking at Sectional Times/Examples… worth watching, although I’m biased… WATCH HERE>>> 

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Tips write ups…

Yes yes, I know it’s two days after I said i’d probably take the early parts of the week easy, building up to the higher class contests at the back end, which I enjoy attacking most. Alas. Once I started today I seemingly couldn’t stop, although of course we know that Johnny Utah and the two losing tips will be the only winners on today’s post! As an aside I think the market has the latter two about right and just too much guesswork with Johnny, who’s shown nothing to date, a C6 and he’s rated in the 40s but he is making hncp debut with 1st blinkers, and Jack’s riding with confidence and maybe that will rub off on him. Guesswork really but the sort/yard/owner where the market may guide… Richard Spencer is basically a private trainer for Phil Cunningham I think, who owns Too Shy Shy and manages the Rebel Racing Syndicates etc. I think they all like a bet or three every now and then. Onto today…

2.10 Yarm – Mr Kiki – If you offered me one winner today from these four i’d bite your hand off and take it – maybe this one can kick start the day in the best possible way.

I’ll start with the Fav, just tipped by Andy Holding I think who apparently was eye popping on the clock LTO – IF she holds a position and gets rolling, maybe she’ll be too hard to beat but she was doing all her best work late there over 7f, 6 today, off a decent pace – I can hope she gets going too late here, but she does look the one to beat.

The selection looked worth a go at his price, on the strength of his 2YO form, which suggests 89 is very workable if/when it all clicks. I won’t detail said form but you can look through, inc his first career start in what would turn into a hot Ascot maiden.

LTO on his first start of the season/final start for Michael Bell, he was a monkey down to the start but jumped out fine. The stirrups then broke, game over, coasted home in his own time. So, a line through that. Beckett has him now, reaches for the hood and the blinkers -a  fascinating combo, one to calm him down/dull the senses/help settle, the other to help spark him up! Maybe he’ll be confused. I found it interesting that they return him to the scene of his career win, over the CD. I think these owners made the same stable switch with a Haydock winner, who won in 1st blinkers. I hope they try and race prominently. Beckett is 3/9, 6p here, although a sort of irrelevant stat when you’re talking about CD winners I think, still, a positive. Trainer/Jockey are 6/17, 8p +11 SP (one to note for you micro fanatics) when teaming up in the last year.

It is a 3YO only handicap so plenty can step forward but I did think they all had questions, especially the distance for a few of them, and in general the level of form achieved to date is a bit ‘meh’ . The selection has the best 2YO form by some way, hence why he’s the highest rated I suppose, but still with room for improvement. I thought he was worth chancing at 11s – if his stirrups hadn’t have broken LTO and he’d have ‘run on’ into a respectable position he’d have been put in 3-4 points shorter I suspect.

7.45 Kemp – Too Shy Shy 

I just don’t know how she was put in at 11s here and I’m still miffed. That looks twice the price she should be in this line up but maybe i’ll find out why in a few hours. She’s a LTO winner at Lingfield, comfortably holding the Balding horse to my eyes (who is 5s, why the disparity?) on her first start of the season. She was lightening from the widest draw that day and hopefully she will be again – the Geegeez heat maps suggest this draw/running style combo over this CD is just fine (a pleasant shade of green). She will try and lead if breaking, the Clive Cox horse on her inside possibly the one to scupper it but I can hope he needs it/is rusty – although 1st blinkers so maybe not. She showed a good attitude LTO also and not impossible she’s come on for it. Said Balding horse who she beat ran a solid race NTO in a C4 off 73. So it looks solid form in the context of this race. Most of her previous races have worked out fairly well also. There’s more to come and given her profile / form/ pace set up I couldn’t work out this price. Jack couldn’t be riding better either, 10/26, 18p in the last 14 days and the trainers are running well also, 4/22,10p last 14 days. The 37 day break is a tad concerning – maybe they’ve just been waiting for a weak race, but she is a filly, and Super needs 4+ weeks between races, they can be tricky, tie up, etc and maybe they have a routine with her. Or there was a minor hold up, we shall see. Anyway, 11s was worth chancing and the market may well guide, in what seemed an open/weak race to my eyes.

How the fav was 2s I’ve no idea. In form, but mediocre form on paper, a headgear switch and an inexperienced jockey on – well he’s 1/90 in the last year (1/9 the last 14 days, so he’s improving, and he must be decent enough if Varian is using him) and 0/28,5p at Kempton. Jack also rode him LTO and maybe he had the choice here, i’m not sure. Only his 3rd ride for Spencer though and maybe Varian wanted to take 5lb off. It’s the sort of race/grade where nothing would shock you but it looks very winnable.

The money for Brian Meehan’s/Buicks horse may be significant.

 

2.50 Catt – Strong Power

Why oh why has Mr Scott (based in Newmarket, next to Amy actually, nice fella from my one chat with him at a Newmarket Open day – a must next year) come to Catterick… when, he could have run this horse 1lb overweight in the 2.40 Yarmouth – IF he needed the run/would come on for it. There’s a big chance that he didn’t want to run this one on Yarmouth’s GF but given this horse’s profile, 1st run of the season, he could have waited for something closer to home i’d have thought. It’s his only runner on the card. Maybe there’s nothing in that, but the thinking influenced me at the odds, sending him up for a weaker northern handicap.

He’s also booked Curtis again, now 5/11, 7p +26 SP in the last year and he rides the track well. The yard are going along better than they were at the start of the season and he’s had a winner/a few placed efforts with those making seasonal return, most of them 3YO. His Amazing News won for Section 1 at Newmarket a few weeks back, sent off 18s, gulp – the market wasn’t much help there.

The horse… he’s an unexposed 3YO handicapper who’s form to date (nearly every start) screams that he will be much better than 81 at some point and that he could have plenty in hand when it clicks this season. Hopefully that’s today. Again, you can look through the ‘hot form’ if that interests you, but every race he’s been in and around (or had in front) many horses that have won subsequently/rated much higher- plenty in the 90s, a few now in the low 100s. In his Sporting Life stable tour he reported this one to have ‘wintered well’ and that they should have some fun over sprint trips this year. He did have a minor injury after his last run I think, hence why he’s only returning now – i’d see that as a positive, being patient, making sure they’ve got him spot on. He shapes as if worth a go over 6f now, and if he’s bigger/stronger, that makes sense. And this isn’t the stiffest of 6 furlongs. Whether he does progress from aged 2, that’s the question, but again, I just found it so difficult to leave him at this price. He does have a tricky draw but has shown speed before, hopefully he can get out and track Bossipop, both tucking in at some point. He could get caught wide/game over, but that price just about covers such concerns. Plenty win from that stall over this CD.

Another race where the fav looks solid, more to come, in form – but again he ran over 7f LTO and did stay well, having watched it back. This is a fast 6f for the most part, esp the first half, and tactical speed is a question – but if he’s anywhere near striking distance in the final 2 furlongs he will be rattling home and does look the one to beat to my eyes.

I wasn’t that enthusiastic about any others in this really, given their marks/generally exposed. It is a tight handicap though but the selection is one of the few interesting ones (along with Quinns, and the fav) in here, and he gets the age allowances. Fingers crossed…

5.10 Kempton – Private Matter

I was most on the fence for this one but if ignoring his LTO run at Haydock in a swamp, he arrives in form. He doesn’t win very often but he is 1/11 on the AW, that win under Jack (1/5 AW hncps), who knows him well enough. Amy switches the headgear again, and it’s the first time he has blinkers/TT combo. In races like this such things can make a difference. The Pace angle has drawn me in also – he will try and make all, may well end up tracking Lordsbridge Boy if he’s the pace to keep tabs – those two should tow these along and many in here can be ridden patiently. Obviously the yard are going well.

The horse made a pleasing return on 5th June, he led that field deep into that race, leading with 1/2 f to go, before blowing up. He’d have needed it. Amy then ran him 5 days later over this CD, where he led for a long way also but was a bit too lit up – and maybe that quick return didn’t suit. He was ahead of Inaam in that race though and has beaten The Right Choice at Southwell before. It’s the sort of race where a repeat of that run here two starts back could well be good enough to win.

It feels very open with plenty of disappointing types who have questions galore. The Ivory horse is interesting but he was short, stepping up from C6 but a prev C5 winner on turf. He ran as if needing it LTO but again I can hope this comes quick enough and his jockey, George Downing, is 0/20,1p here in the last year, 4/165, 35 in the last 5 years – not the sort of stats to back up wading into a 7/2 shot for me. No doubt he’ll ride a peach now 🙂

Anyway, this looked winnable, and nothing would totally shock me – but 10s/9s or so looked worth a go for Amy’s horse here.

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A busier day  than expected in truth, but there’s sound reasoning and hopefully one or two of them can go in. They all looked far too big. There’s two who will try and make all, and the other two should be prominent if there to run their race/behave/get out the stalls. ‘No excuses’ positions.

I was happy with how I read yesterday’s race – I was right to take on the 3YOs, you could have thrown a blanket over plenty at the end. I think one of the Chris’ fancied the winner in the comments so well done. I don’t think I mentioned him! MJs team are in decent form. Mustaq’s chance was over after 2f sadly. The jockey seemed caught in two minds- he either had to be more aggressive early, get out, and tuck in off the pace – or do what he did, and hold him up – he was too far off a moderate pace (to the eye) and had no chance turning in- he made up some ground and wasn’t knocked about. His mark will drop again – they should find a 4YO+ with cut, open, exposed horses – that Ponte run suggested he’s got a race in him soon, and if he does, given his mark, he could bolt up. Another cliff edge looms into view…

Gl today, as always. Josh

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Stats Selection Yarmouth 3.40 Intimate Moment 11/1 gen

    Posting early due to work commitments tomorrow.No joy today,victory snatched from 2 fast finishers,such frustrations are rarer over the jumps,probably nothing compared to Philip McBride’s tribulations in 2018 0-47,but has sent out 4-8 in last 14 days

    His overall strike rate is 7/31 with 3yo+20
    Using the services of SDS 3/12+8
    SDS rides track well although his strike rate is well below his 5 year average
    The horse has won over c+d which is a plus

  2. Video replay observations on the better races today

    2:10 Yarmouth badri/Spanish angel/lady Eleanor

    2:50 catterick bossipop/Abel handy/intrinsic bond/

    6:45 kempton Cepheus/omnivega/quickthorn

  3. Yarmouth 2-10. the top 3 in the market all have big question marks against them, Spanish Angel 9-2 looks pretty well treated and should be a big threat if getting the extra furlong but the same could be said for Bushtucker trial 28-1 if you can forgive his performance on reappearance also only one in race to have won a C3. Tricky looking race and probably best left alone but Bushtucker Trial might be worth a little dabble at the price.

  4. A small profit on Tuesday – 2/1 winner, a place and a loser.

    Wednesday picks:

    12.35 Yarmouth, Unresolved;
    12.45 Catterick, Militia;
    2.50 Catterick, Broken Spear.

    Good luck Martin

  5. I do like the booking of Rossa Ryan for Mr Beckett as he has a strong record when riding one from this yard for the first time but I do like the profile of Spanish Angel who beat Love Powerful by over 5 lengths at Windsor on the 24th June, Love Powerful has since won off 82 comfortably beating 94 and 95 rated runners

    1. GL David, he shouldn’t be far away if he stays – i thought worth taking on/leaving at his price given that question, thought 5s only ok, but obv value judgements very subjective, – but in fairness has shaped a couple of times as if worth a go and may be he needs stepping up now, some hope in breeding and as you point out, some strong formlines – consistent, usually runs race- and that counts for plenty. You may well be spot on! GL. Becketts is more now the price I thought he should be/would be put in at.

  6. Ascot list runners:
    12.15. Catt. Mokaman/Nacho/Tapeten Toni
    13.10. Yar. Fast Start
    16.40. Kemp Sense of Romance/Bilandy
    17.40. Kemp. Angels Will Rise.

    Selection: 12.15 Catt. Mokaman

    Mediocre stuff all round and having had a look at all the Ascot runner races just one bet is Mokaman in the 12.15 Catt. 13.10 Yarmouth a tricky race and fancy Barber of Saville but only 7 runners so no e/w value but may have a w/o bet on that one and Miss Chess (£220,000 gns)looks an interesting runner along with the £350,000 guineas Boomshalaa…prize money around £4,000 for the inner so the two will have to win a lot of races to repay that kind of outlay and connections will be disappointed if they underperform.

    Have Bilandy, 16.40 Kempt, in my notes as “may struggle to win” and the price reflects the chances of that one. Not sure about the the 16.40 and the 17.40 so will give them a miss as well so only the one selection and a maybe for Barber of Saville….gd luck if playing and whatever you back today

    1. Hi Silver, Ed Vaughan and Hollie are 6 from 10 when teaming up in the last year, so I’m joining you on Miss Chess 🙂

      1. Thanks, that is very interesting….I put a question mark on that runner as the horse has an interesting pedigree but my doubts are over if there is more stamina than speed as I think 7f is a specialist distance needing both stamina and speed…just thought the horse leaned towards more stamina than speed that is why i am not sure but all the best in backing it…hope it wins for you even though I prefer Barber …gd lck

        1. Just re checked the pedigree on Miss Chess and certainly in terms of Large Hearts the horse is far superior than the others so Mark you have convinced me to split stakes with Barber even given my doubts!!!

    2. Selection bet returned industry sp 11/4 so plus 2.75 pts…..previous total 4.6 pts (after a loser last time) so plus 7.35pts so far since being more organised in terms of recording….thanks to Colin and Chris for pointing me in the right direction in terms of taking a more professional approach than I have done previously, even though do not claim to be professional in any sense of the word regarding putting up selections. Chees guys

      1. Well done, and yep the addition of the ‘selection’ bit is very helpful! 🙂 I wouldn’t record to industry SP – generally available (3+ books is my guide) price (non bog) when you place bet/post is more than fair. Anyone actually betting to industry SP should give up – BFSP a better option than ISP. Either of those in time will just make your results look even better than they no doubt will be.
        Ticking along just great which is just reward for your sterling efforts, keep on keeping on
        Josh

        1. Yep,…… been tardy in recording and thanks for the info regarding SP and BFSP…just trying to be honest in terms of recording bets rather than inflate them with BOG .etc so in future will use BFSP…input always appreciated

    3. disappointing run from Barber , course experience of the winner may have been the deciding factor but pleasing run from Miss Chess…back tomorrow

  7. Cheltenham info…..Yes, that dreaded word so, so early but though this worth sharing….I listen to William Hill radio most days and Andy Holding was responding to a listeners question about his views on chances of horses running at the festival next year and was quite forthright in putting up four horses, adding that he has backed them ante post himself so here they are:

    Sire Du Berlais in the Stayers Hurdle
    Abacadabras in the Champion Hurdle
    Minella Indo in the Chelt Gold Cup
    Put The Kettle On in the Champion Chase.

    Not knowing enough about jumps races to offer any useful opinion thought this was worth sharing for those on here who are knowledgeable to make better judgements about them than myself….hope this is useful.

    1. Thanks John, very useful…

      If he’s put them up/backed them… they will have all done something impressive enough on the clock (for how Andy/his team do speed ratings anyway – plenty of final circuit times/comparisons) I suspect at The Festival just gone, and such times/performances will compare favourably to his standard times/analysis for said races listed above. If all four of those turn up, I suspect 1 or 2 will be going very close!

      Josh

      1. Appreciate that….the prices are good enough to have an e/w yankee but not being an ante post better and over jumps no idea if they are value but for jumps enthusiasts on here though this was interesting info…glad to help

  8. Hi Josh, with regards to the Ralph Beckett trainer profile you have, where Mr kiki is a qualifier today, i notice that under that profile Beckett was having 28-33 qualifiers per year for the last 5 years. I think Mr Kiki will be the 17th qualifier this year in just over a month, which makes me wonder if there is change in trainer behaviour. Maybe too early to tell, but is a niggle in my mind, and i wouldn’t want to put anyone off just thought id mention. Cheers, good luck

    1. Hi James,

      Hmm, interesting. Yep maybe a change – could well have more geldings/fillies in the yard, which could explain more runners… that angle does have a rest pattern/no. of runs in 90 days element though, 0-2, and given how delayed this season it, there could be something in that – those 17 runners may have been spread out a bit more previously from May onwards, hard to know.
      We shall see – some of the angles will work just as they are, some won’t, but hopefully that’s where the ‘H’ may come in and my occasionally good subjective eye!
      but yep, if no. runners start topping 45/50+ given historical nos, could be there’s been a change – whether he still keeps up SR, we shall see.
      Thanks for flagging,
      Josh
      p.s nearly time to start pondering the winter Jumps version!

      1. Either way Josh its all fascinating stuff! and i look forward to the jumps as ever as i suspect jumps trainers are more set in their ways. Regards

    1. cheers Paul – history would suggest when i’m hot i’m hot, and when i’m cold – well, freezing! Although in saying that i’ve never done things like I am this summer- the content is all new/different / the starting points, i’m leaving summer jumps generally – there can be too much racing – and yep no tunnel vision on 3 mile chasers, esp this time of year, which drain time/energy etc. The current method/sticking to my content, is much more fun! We shall see how long it lasts – there will be a correction soon enough, again
      Josh

    1. thanks GB, I was quite pleased with those write ups, and at least one of them has read the script! I thought you’d appreciate those nuggets!

  9. Well done Josh with Mr Kiki I missed the price so didn’t have a nibble which is frustrating for me but brilliant for you and those that did.

    1. Ah that is annoying – that price did hold for 40 mins + after he went up at 8am, and why I post tips at set times, around 8am, 9am and 10am latest so you know when to look – but obviously life can get in the way! His betfair exchange price was 11s/12s if not bigger for a good while in the time leading up to the race, certainly last 10 mins, if the tracking price on sky sports racing is correct – that’s always an option if you don’t like price when look etc and getting 5-20 matched at that price at that time is no issue on exchange then.
      Josh

    1. Ha, well yes – my plan is to stick to my content, inc any big race weekend/Festival focus, and so far, so good! Looking back that fixation on those races, esp mediocre mid week fare, drained mental energy, and I wasn’t doing that well in them, a vicious cycle – while also not spending much time on content as starting points. Still, early days, reading it well do far although plenty of ‘services’ would take +50 points over a flat season and be happy!! 🙂
      Josh

  10. Josh, a note on George Downing who has got himself a good berth with Dean Ivory. His past stats may be irrelevant as he has been scratching around for winning rides for years.
    I’m expecting him to have a good season, all being well; he’s got four rides with chances tonight at Kempton.

    1. thanks Chris- yep it’s no slight on him as a rider as such, generally, but when you’re looking for reasons to oppose a 7/2 shot, those sort of track numbers will jump out at me! But yep if you’re not riding good horses, there’s only so much you can do. His and mine could well set it up for something else, we shall see – or they dictate it between them and are battling it out. (reverse FC, that’s prob asking for too much mind!) We shall see. Gl if you’re on, he may well make 4s or so look decent.

    2. Hi Chris
      George Downing learnt his trade as an apprentice jockey with Tony Carroll, and he his now registered has stable jockey although Tony goes for experienced jockeys when his horses are expected to run well,
      George was a decent apprentice, after losing his allowance not progressed, however Tony has been loyal to him by retaining him has flat stable jockey, has he also done with Lee Edwards stable NH jockey who came the same route has George.
      Had a great couple of years visiting Tony’s yard and he his a fantastic open trainer, and both the lads were young apprentices then.
      Colin.

  11. Update… if you so care… I wasn’t going to back Johnny Utah, even for ‘beer money’ (code for a 1/4 point for me really) but given the form of the yard/ownership today, i’ve had the cost of 1 pint at my local on him at 11s. Some leap of faith, but well, it’s been a good few days and you never know. He’s being nibbled at, and the tip isn’t moving, so not impossible i’ve picked the wrong Mitchell/Spencer runner. We shall see.

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