2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
(7/49,18p, +46.5, +56.34 BFSP)
#1 – 2.10 Yarm – Mr Kiki – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) WON 11/1 > 8/1
#2 – 7.45 Kemp – Too Shy Shy – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) UP /4th (some payed 4th for EW players) 18/1 – hmm, much like with Private Matter, done far too much on front/pace pressure, read that wrong – she’s a make all win in her again, maybe back to Lingfield – so much early speed. Balding horse finished just behind her again.
#3 – 2.50 Catt – Strong Power – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen)UP 11/2 – a value loser!…poor run, did get trapped wide/shuffled back, not sure he handled coming down hill, looked uncomfortable up the straight, a line through that, but he’ll go into the losing tips pile for next three starts! He will win races with him, if he’s the same horse – not sure what injury was, but a chance he’s ‘remembering ‘ it when under the pump – head looked awkward under pressure there, hung over to rail.
#4 – 5.10 Kemp – Private Matter – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/888) 9/1 (BV) UP 6/1 UP
ALL Tips x4, as of 9am, write ups at bottom of post… see if you agree with me, prefer my danger horses, or think i’ve lost my mind… all possible…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
2.10 Yarm – Mr Kiki (16/1<) 11/1 WON 11/1>8/1
2.50 Catt – Strong Power (8/1<) 9/1 ‘DNQ’ (as of 8am, given 1st run of season, market ‘may’ guide) UP 11/2
3.Other Micro Angles
Jack Mitchell (10/1< best)
5.10 Kemp – Private Matter 12/1 UP
7.45 Kemp – Too Shy Shy H3 11/1 UP (4th, did well considering looked to go hard/pace pressure)
8.15 Kemp – Johnny Utah 12/1 UP
4.Horses to Follow
3.50 Catt – The Dancing Poet (1st run) H1 2/1 WON 2/1 > 9/4 SP
6.10 Kemp – Rum Baba (2nd run) 4/1 UP I don’t think he’s trained on, disappointing so far.
Tracker Tuesday... two new videos looking at Sectional Times/Examples… worth watching, although I’m biased… WATCH HERE>>>
Tips write ups…
Yes yes, I know it’s two days after I said i’d probably take the early parts of the week easy, building up to the higher class contests at the back end, which I enjoy attacking most. Alas. Once I started today I seemingly couldn’t stop, although of course we know that Johnny Utah and the two losing tips will be the only winners on today’s post! As an aside I think the market has the latter two about right and just too much guesswork with Johnny, who’s shown nothing to date, a C6 and he’s rated in the 40s but he is making hncp debut with 1st blinkers, and Jack’s riding with confidence and maybe that will rub off on him. Guesswork really but the sort/yard/owner where the market may guide… Richard Spencer is basically a private trainer for Phil Cunningham I think, who owns Too Shy Shy and manages the Rebel Racing Syndicates etc. I think they all like a bet or three every now and then. Onto today…
2.10 Yarm – Mr Kiki – If you offered me one winner today from these four i’d bite your hand off and take it – maybe this one can kick start the day in the best possible way.
I’ll start with the Fav, just tipped by Andy Holding I think who apparently was eye popping on the clock LTO – IF she holds a position and gets rolling, maybe she’ll be too hard to beat but she was doing all her best work late there over 7f, 6 today, off a decent pace – I can hope she gets going too late here, but she does look the one to beat.
The selection looked worth a go at his price, on the strength of his 2YO form, which suggests 89 is very workable if/when it all clicks. I won’t detail said form but you can look through, inc his first career start in what would turn into a hot Ascot maiden.
LTO on his first start of the season/final start for Michael Bell, he was a monkey down to the start but jumped out fine. The stirrups then broke, game over, coasted home in his own time. So, a line through that. Beckett has him now, reaches for the hood and the blinkers -a fascinating combo, one to calm him down/dull the senses/help settle, the other to help spark him up! Maybe he’ll be confused. I found it interesting that they return him to the scene of his career win, over the CD. I think these owners made the same stable switch with a Haydock winner, who won in 1st blinkers. I hope they try and race prominently. Beckett is 3/9, 6p here, although a sort of irrelevant stat when you’re talking about CD winners I think, still, a positive. Trainer/Jockey are 6/17, 8p +11 SP (one to note for you micro fanatics) when teaming up in the last year.
It is a 3YO only handicap so plenty can step forward but I did think they all had questions, especially the distance for a few of them, and in general the level of form achieved to date is a bit ‘meh’ . The selection has the best 2YO form by some way, hence why he’s the highest rated I suppose, but still with room for improvement. I thought he was worth chancing at 11s – if his stirrups hadn’t have broken LTO and he’d have ‘run on’ into a respectable position he’d have been put in 3-4 points shorter I suspect.
7.45 Kemp – Too Shy Shy
I just don’t know how she was put in at 11s here and I’m still miffed. That looks twice the price she should be in this line up but maybe i’ll find out why in a few hours. She’s a LTO winner at Lingfield, comfortably holding the Balding horse to my eyes (who is 5s, why the disparity?) on her first start of the season. She was lightening from the widest draw that day and hopefully she will be again – the Geegeez heat maps suggest this draw/running style combo over this CD is just fine (a pleasant shade of green). She will try and lead if breaking, the Clive Cox horse on her inside possibly the one to scupper it but I can hope he needs it/is rusty – although 1st blinkers so maybe not. She showed a good attitude LTO also and not impossible she’s come on for it. Said Balding horse who she beat ran a solid race NTO in a C4 off 73. So it looks solid form in the context of this race. Most of her previous races have worked out fairly well also. There’s more to come and given her profile / form/ pace set up I couldn’t work out this price. Jack couldn’t be riding better either, 10/26, 18p in the last 14 days and the trainers are running well also, 4/22,10p last 14 days. The 37 day break is a tad concerning – maybe they’ve just been waiting for a weak race, but she is a filly, and Super needs 4+ weeks between races, they can be tricky, tie up, etc and maybe they have a routine with her. Or there was a minor hold up, we shall see. Anyway, 11s was worth chancing and the market may well guide, in what seemed an open/weak race to my eyes.
How the fav was 2s I’ve no idea. In form, but mediocre form on paper, a headgear switch and an inexperienced jockey on – well he’s 1/90 in the last year (1/9 the last 14 days, so he’s improving, and he must be decent enough if Varian is using him) and 0/28,5p at Kempton. Jack also rode him LTO and maybe he had the choice here, i’m not sure. Only his 3rd ride for Spencer though and maybe Varian wanted to take 5lb off. It’s the sort of race/grade where nothing would shock you but it looks very winnable.
The money for Brian Meehan’s/Buicks horse may be significant.
2.50 Catt – Strong Power
Why oh why has Mr Scott (based in Newmarket, next to Amy actually, nice fella from my one chat with him at a Newmarket Open day – a must next year) come to Catterick… when, he could have run this horse 1lb overweight in the 2.40 Yarmouth – IF he needed the run/would come on for it. There’s a big chance that he didn’t want to run this one on Yarmouth’s GF but given this horse’s profile, 1st run of the season, he could have waited for something closer to home i’d have thought. It’s his only runner on the card. Maybe there’s nothing in that, but the thinking influenced me at the odds, sending him up for a weaker northern handicap.
He’s also booked Curtis again, now 5/11, 7p +26 SP in the last year and he rides the track well. The yard are going along better than they were at the start of the season and he’s had a winner/a few placed efforts with those making seasonal return, most of them 3YO. His Amazing News won for Section 1 at Newmarket a few weeks back, sent off 18s, gulp – the market wasn’t much help there.
The horse… he’s an unexposed 3YO handicapper who’s form to date (nearly every start) screams that he will be much better than 81 at some point and that he could have plenty in hand when it clicks this season. Hopefully that’s today. Again, you can look through the ‘hot form’ if that interests you, but every race he’s been in and around (or had in front) many horses that have won subsequently/rated much higher- plenty in the 90s, a few now in the low 100s. In his Sporting Life stable tour he reported this one to have ‘wintered well’ and that they should have some fun over sprint trips this year. He did have a minor injury after his last run I think, hence why he’s only returning now – i’d see that as a positive, being patient, making sure they’ve got him spot on. He shapes as if worth a go over 6f now, and if he’s bigger/stronger, that makes sense. And this isn’t the stiffest of 6 furlongs. Whether he does progress from aged 2, that’s the question, but again, I just found it so difficult to leave him at this price. He does have a tricky draw but has shown speed before, hopefully he can get out and track Bossipop, both tucking in at some point. He could get caught wide/game over, but that price just about covers such concerns. Plenty win from that stall over this CD.
Another race where the fav looks solid, more to come, in form – but again he ran over 7f LTO and did stay well, having watched it back. This is a fast 6f for the most part, esp the first half, and tactical speed is a question – but if he’s anywhere near striking distance in the final 2 furlongs he will be rattling home and does look the one to beat to my eyes.
I wasn’t that enthusiastic about any others in this really, given their marks/generally exposed. It is a tight handicap though but the selection is one of the few interesting ones (along with Quinns, and the fav) in here, and he gets the age allowances. Fingers crossed…
5.10 Kempton – Private Matter
I was most on the fence for this one but if ignoring his LTO run at Haydock in a swamp, he arrives in form. He doesn’t win very often but he is 1/11 on the AW, that win under Jack (1/5 AW hncps), who knows him well enough. Amy switches the headgear again, and it’s the first time he has blinkers/TT combo. In races like this such things can make a difference. The Pace angle has drawn me in also – he will try and make all, may well end up tracking Lordsbridge Boy if he’s the pace to keep tabs – those two should tow these along and many in here can be ridden patiently. Obviously the yard are going well.
The horse made a pleasing return on 5th June, he led that field deep into that race, leading with 1/2 f to go, before blowing up. He’d have needed it. Amy then ran him 5 days later over this CD, where he led for a long way also but was a bit too lit up – and maybe that quick return didn’t suit. He was ahead of Inaam in that race though and has beaten The Right Choice at Southwell before. It’s the sort of race where a repeat of that run here two starts back could well be good enough to win.
It feels very open with plenty of disappointing types who have questions galore. The Ivory horse is interesting but he was short, stepping up from C6 but a prev C5 winner on turf. He ran as if needing it LTO but again I can hope this comes quick enough and his jockey, George Downing, is 0/20,1p here in the last year, 4/165, 35 in the last 5 years – not the sort of stats to back up wading into a 7/2 shot for me. No doubt he’ll ride a peach now 🙂
Anyway, this looked winnable, and nothing would totally shock me – but 10s/9s or so looked worth a go for Amy’s horse here.
A busier day than expected in truth, but there’s sound reasoning and hopefully one or two of them can go in. They all looked far too big. There’s two who will try and make all, and the other two should be prominent if there to run their race/behave/get out the stalls. ‘No excuses’ positions.
I was happy with how I read yesterday’s race – I was right to take on the 3YOs, you could have thrown a blanket over plenty at the end. I think one of the Chris’ fancied the winner in the comments so well done. I don’t think I mentioned him! MJs team are in decent form. Mustaq’s chance was over after 2f sadly. The jockey seemed caught in two minds- he either had to be more aggressive early, get out, and tuck in off the pace – or do what he did, and hold him up – he was too far off a moderate pace (to the eye) and had no chance turning in- he made up some ground and wasn’t knocked about. His mark will drop again – they should find a 4YO+ with cut, open, exposed horses – that Ponte run suggested he’s got a race in him soon, and if he does, given his mark, he could bolt up. Another cliff edge looms into view…
Gl today, as always. Josh