Daily Members Post: 13/07/20 (complete)

Tipx1, Quals, the week ahead

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(6/44,17p, +39.5, +50.73 BFSP)

#1 – 2.40 Wind – Glenties – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365/WH) 11/2 (gen) WON 11/2 > 16/5 (hopefully some got 6s, but declared to 11/2, which was gen available in multiple places for an age) AA surprised me with how he rode him, but in hindsight I can see why they tried something different given recent runs, and that’s allowed him to see his race out better. Smart.  

that’s all for today, as of 07.51, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.40 Wind-  State Crown (12/1< guide) (x3 angles) 7/2  H4 UP (surely something in him over 10f or maybe even a stiff 8f, faded again) 

2.40 Wind – Selecto (any) 6/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

2.40 Wind – Glenties (3rd/final run) H3 11/2 WON 11/2>16/5 

Losing Tips

5.10 Kemp – Caen Na Coille (1st run) 20/1 2nd 20/1>10/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Tip write up

Glenties – The Mark Johnston juggernaut did us a favour in a 3YO only handicap on Friday from ‘HQ’ and I’m sticking with his charge here at 6s / 11/2. He went into my ‘notebook’ after his Haydock run, when visibly outpaced before staying on nicely. He had Kipps in front of him there, a solid yardstick who’d go close at Royal Ascot. He hasn’t been a backable price in his two runs since, but is today. At Goodwood he tried to dictate a dawdle but didn’t have a change of gear- in hindsight I suspect Joe wished he’d wound it up a long way from home- he does just look like a galloper. He then got cut up by the winner and coasted home, although it didn’t make a difference to the result but would have been within 1L I suspect. Newmarket was a Class 2, and having just watched it back he didn’t seem to handle the dip at all well there, all at sea, unbalanced, unhappy and  indeed outpaced over that 10f.

He’s back up to 12 today and drops into a C4 again, the same as at Haydock. ‘AA’ gets the ride and he does well when teaming up with MJ – 3/12,4p in handicaps, but 3/7,4p +16 when said handicapper is aged 3, including 1/2 at Windsor (a win last month). I suspect this booking may be quite deliberate given the track he runs at – and AA rides it well- the Johnston team do use jockey stats/course records to help decide who rides who, and where.

He has yet to win, so has a question, but is tough, hardy, he settles and responds to pressure. I can hope he has a bit too much nous for some of these…

State Crown – if Glenties bombs I won’t begrudge him winning for the ‘H‘ ‘strategy’ but to my eyes he didn’t run LTO as if crying out for this trip. But who am I to second guess his excellent trainer. Colonize still looked a bit raw under pressure LTO but as with most in here is unexposed and could take a big step forward – a reminder that David Egan is retained by these owners. I’d want to see more from Charlton’s charge although he has been gelded since his last start and maybe his mind is more on the job at hand but if the selection runs his race i’d be disappointed if he finished ahead of him.

The three outsiders have even more questions although there’s a Balding/Murphy combo, always to be feared.

That does leave one, the fav… French Asset – I won’t be shocked if he wins, obviously, he’s 5/2 – he looks a fine specimen of a horse having watched his last run back, big, strong and just the type to do even better next year for his in-form connections. He ran well on his return and is a big danger, much more to come – I do wonder if this track may be tight enough though, and if mine could get away off the bends before the straight, that would help. I’m sure Stoute won’t want him knocked about either- the sort I can appreciate winning, while there isn’t enough to wade in at 5/2 for me, and equally enough questions where I’m happy to take him on with a 6s poke.

Pace/tactics… AA can put mine where he wants – I suspect he may try and lead here and it’s not impossible they let him bowl along- I just hope he gets after him early enough, up against this rail, and that he keeps going, catch me if you can. We shall see if they do!

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Moving forwards... In the early part of the week I will look to ‘save myself’ for the classier action near the back end – I’m a bit like Barry Geraghty I think in that I do enjoy the big days/races, and get myself up for them – I also have trends/trainer pointers etc to help – so, for the Flat at least, it could be that I let the daily stats do their thing during the week and i’ll wind myself up for tips/analysis in the C2s+, generally, but not exclusively – having just tipped in a C4 at Windsor! 🙂 It’s probably no coincidence all 5 of my winners were on big race days, 3 of them 12s+, Royal Ascot x1, July Meeting x2. And as I ponder my longer term Jumps record – well, most of that 400+ points profit has been biggies in Nationals, Sat handicap chases, Festivals etc. Anyway, something for me to ponder.

Talking of Barry… what a great career, and to go out after such a superb Cheltenham. One of the greatest chase jockeys of all time, and probably the greatest over 2m …

 

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The week ahead… 

I’ll get pondering something for ‘Micro Monday’ soon, for ‘Tracker Tuesday’ i’ll have a look at any Sectional Times in recent meetings which I haven’t done for a while, to spot any potential eye-catchers. I’ll try and do some ‘over the shoulder’ videos this week also linked to the above.

On Thursday i’ll look ahead to the weekend – there’s two big 3YO+ handicap from York, and i’ll see if any pointers for those – Sunday, well, there’s 3/4 decent C2 handicaps then, the sort of weekend where i’ll take next Monday off! 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Pleased for you that your tips have taken an upturn, no doubt you have an extra spring in your step and the brain will be in an happy mode, losing runs are so painful!
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin,
      Winners always help! The betting gods were just playing with me after Scarlet Dragon, reminding me this flat game isn’t that easy 🙂 As per above, i’m edging towards the conclusion that I like being a big game player – whether that plays out during the rest of the flat season, we shall see – but I have no issue getting motivated for those big C2s etc, whereas the lower class weekday grind can be tedious, and there are seemingly much better judges than I of such contests. This game is mentally draining as well, and proper analysis hurts the head, esp given the content I like to fire out in the context this isn’t a ‘tipping’ site as such. So, maybe a handful of big races a week, with my stats/trends/trainer pointers to help – maybe some of the jockeys get themselves up for the big days also, and it makes sense the cream of the riding crop can shine through in C2s+, where the horses can be more closely matched. And the stats quas/ ‘H’ have been doing well enough to keep us ticking over during the week.
      2 of those 3 Friday/Sat winners bolted up on their previous start, and the other came a running on second- maybe something in that also.

      Anyway, we soldier on. Such are the odds I play at, and if targeting such races, the big priced winners always make the difference come year end, and the losing runs, of which there will be many, can always be tougher. That’s the game.
      Josh

  2. Josh

    Just a quick word to say how brilliant this site is and all the info you are putting out there. I originally found it by accident whilst looking for HRB videos on YouTube. It looks like you put an awful lot of effort into the blogs produced and think you deserve the recognition, so its a big well done from me!

    Whilst your doing some of the ‘over the shoulder’ vids you mentioned, how about doing one on the HRB ratings. These are a constant source of winners at the moment and i wondered if they are better in Handicaps or none handicaps, 2yo or older? may be that could be something to get your teeth into, there must be an angle or two there?
    Anyway, i look forward to whatever you produce, it should make interesting watching. Keep up the good work.

    Regards
    Dave

    1. Hi Dave,

      That’s very kind of you to say, glad you enjoy all the info/content etc. You can comment again if they’re all in this vein haha

      I do have a new marketing book sat on my desk (an area where I should just pay someone when times improve) but that has a chapter on Youtube I should probably read- the second biggest search engine after Google – and clearly I need to put some focus on there so stumbling across the blog is less of an accident.

      Yep i can do something on the ratings I suspect – they are best to apply to an existing angle or research I think. There is the ‘ratings machine’ where can test the HRB standard set but that’s only so useful. I don’t think a profitable approach just using them say but I do need to see what they’re like in maidens/novices and Group races – as a few of my stats quals above fall into those races and i’m in two minds whether to include the ratings- but I do just need to look, having only really done so for handicaps on the flat. I think they hold up in Group races also – maybe an angle there, we shall see.

      Josh

  3. A good day on saturday to make up for a poor week – winners at 14/1 and 5/1 and a few places as well.

    I like three on Monday.

    1.35 Windsor, Revolutionise – improving, course and distance winner, decent draw.
    1.45 Ayr, Roaring Forties – course and distance winner, good draw, likes to come from off the pace.
    4.10 Windsor, El Ghazwani – back down to class four, distance winner, Atzeni back on board.

    Good luck Martin

  4. From working at the weekend to now being in self isoltion which is a bummer but it does give me time to look at video replays.
    These are the horses I noted down after watching the runners previous runs.

    Ayr- did the whole card
    12:05 pavers pride/ lady Celia
    12:40 laoise/dodgy Bob
    1:15 star of emaraaty
    1:45 Jessie Allen/lucky violet/Chaplin bay
    2:20 Ventura rascal/noddyholder
    2:50 royal countess/travel lightly/perfect soldier
    3:20 gweedore/celestial wood/bollin Margaret
    3:50 strict/Lizzie loch/bollin Neil

    Windsor class 3 and up
    1:35 a sure welcome/arcanda/belated breath

    Kempton class 3 and up
    7:15 mukha magic/volcanic city/dazzling rock

    Good luck everyone with your selections

  5. Ascot list runners today:

    12.25 Wind. Lothian/Power On
    13.00. Wind. Host/London Palladium/Proclaimed/ Zamaani.

    Have not had the time to look at the cards for these so no analysis and no selections…..from a brief look C5 races that are problematical….all the best if playing

  6. We will miss Barry’s smile that lit up a meeting,but delighted that he has retired in relatively good health,always feared he might suffer one fall too many,only just read yesterday of sad passing of Liam Treadwell,one of the finest horsemen of his time,which unfortunately ended too soon.Whether we win or lose we should cherish those that face the large obstacles for our pleasure,not just the household names,the ones that will never grace the winning enclosure at Cheltenham,but live for a job that ensures danger but very little financial reward

  7. If you could use your GeeGeez to assess the effect of the draw over 10 furlongs for 16+ runners races at York, and put it out say e-mail to subscribers, that would be appreciated

    I would join GeeGeez but its just too much money for the amount I would use it. I only bet in the top races of a week, two on saturday and friday, none sunday.

    I thought there was a big advantage to stalls 1 to 6 but I’m not sure now

    1. Hi Richard,

      I can’t do that sadly, even if I wanted to. I have to be very careful what I pick/choose and share from there, and being a former student of Matts etc and being happy to advertise every now and then is probably why I get away with some of the stuff I do. I can’t just repeat masses of info from Geegeez that others pay good money for. I’m sure there may be some free tools around for effects of the draw etc.

      Although, you can sign up to Geegeez as a free registered user and i’m sure that gets you access to one race card a day and various other tools… here… https://bit.ly/3fBUCPr

      1. I get it

        I am a free registered user. Sadly, I used the First Month for a £1 offer but never used it. Now, I can’t use that again.

        By the way, I’m not saying reproduce the graphs, data annd so on, just a summary like:

        “The data shows there is a distinct advantage to XYZ” they can’t object to you sharing your opinion like that

        1. I’ll try to mention it if it’s a race a race I end up looking at etc. Any will try to add anything of relevance into any Thursday Trend posts 🙂

          Josh

  8. Although you don’t publish a stats based trainer guide it is still useful to look at the trainers track record.Yesterday D McCain had a winner Dear Sire 16-9/1 at bangor on dee.Prior to yesterday he was +106 in hurdles races at 25% SR.Although in semi-hibernation until September Diane Sayer has a good record at Ayr.Its medium value at 8/1.trip should suit

    Caliope 3.50

  9. WD JOSH ..On a crest of a wave at the mo(glenties) …. long may your surfing continue 🙂 .. on my hrb as well .. happy days thanks
    lgb

  10. ha, thanks, just remember this little spell when the next -20 run comes along! 🙂
    But, I won’t complain at the last few days since Friday.

    Gary Always Back Winners had one tip today at around 6s that won also up at Ayr, and for some unknown reason I put them both in a 5EW double – truly, the world must surely be about to end. I don’t do doubles very often at all, and that could be the first ever winner – all downhill from here (and excuse such horrid after timing, you’ll have to let me off there, as i’m the captain! 🙂 )
    Josh

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