Daily Members Post: 11/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(5/43,16p, +34, +46.87 BFSP)

3.50 Ascot 

#1 – Lahore – 1 point win – 12/1 (WH) 11/1 (gen) UP -1

#2 – Jawwaal – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) WON 12/1>10/1 , +12 

 

4.10 Newm

#3 – Arigato – 1 point EW – 9/1 (gen, 1/5, 5p) 4th, 9/1, +0.8 

 

4.25 Ascot 

#4 – Grain of Sense – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP 8/1  -1

that’s all for today, x4 pokes, 5 points, as of 10.30am, brief write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

12.10 Newm – Country (12/1< guide) H2 4/1 WON 4/1>5/1 

12.10 Newm- Yuri Gagarin (any odds, 20/1< best) H3 11/8 UP

2.25 Newm – Spring Of Love (7/1< guide) 11/2

2.25 Newm – Rosadora (16/1<) 11/1

4.10 Newm – Godhead (any odds, 20/1< best) 12/1 3rd 28/1

4.25 Ascot – Grain of Sense (16/1<) H4 11/1 UP 8/1

7.45 Salis – Heart Reef (16/1<) 12/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Newcastle Sires (20/1<)

4.50 – Cipango 13/2

5.55 – Desert Quest H4 9/1/ Lady Bond 33/1

9.00 – Festival Day H4 15/2 / Maori Knight 7/2 / Master of The Stars 7/1

Trainer/Sires

3.35 Newm – Threat (10/1< guide) 10/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any)

3.35 Newm – Khaadem 9/1 4th

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

3.50 Ascot – Aplomb (2nd run) 10/1 4th

Hot Form

12.10 Newm – Future Investment (2nd run) H1 4/1 3rd

4.50 Newc – Yoshimi (2nd run) H2 7/2

Losing Tip 

4.10 Newm – Spannish City (1st run) 16/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

 

Newmarket July Cup Meeting

Report HERE>>>

Day 3 ‘Qualifiers‘ (from the above report)

Trainers

12.45 – Danilova / Nash Nasha / Wedding Dance (all 7/1<)

1.15 – Declaring Love / Vottoria Light (both 7/1<)

1.50 – Eastern World (7/1<)

2.25 – Spring Love (7/1<)

3.35 – Southern Hills (any)

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Sat Trends/Trainer Pointers

Post HERE>>>

3.50 Ascot 

Trends

The 12/12 and 11/12 stats (not odds/market) leave 11/12 winners (11/92, 29p) and leave…

Justanotherbottle / Lahore/ National Anthem H1/ Jawwaal / Venturous H2 / Savalas/ Saaheq 

The market has been some guide, 10/1< / Top 6.

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Pass The Vino
  • Tone The Barone / Street Parade

 

4.10 Newmarket 

Trends

Well, these don’t help at all really for this renewal, (age/CD runs only removes Spanish City, he’ll no doubt now win)  so onto the trainers… (although the market is a guide also in this)

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Vale Of Kent H3/ Blown By Wind / Cardsharp
  • Muntadab
  • No Nonsense
  • Raising Sand

 

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Tips write ups…

3.50 Ascot

Lahore – i’ve used the stats/trends as a guide here and thought he looked worth a go at 12s or so. He’s a strong traveller who stays well and two starts ago won as if there could be more to come this season. Newcastle/his style didn’t seem to suit LTO and he wasn’t knocked around, staying on ok but could never get into it – a race dominated by horses on the pace. I think an Ascot cavalry charge could be right up his street and at double figures I’ll pay to find out.

Jawwaal – similar comments apply to him really. He looks progressive still and was impressive LTO. He’s fit, in form, and should like the set up of this race/the track. He’s another who travels powerfully which is what you need in these straight track races. I thought they both looked overpriced.

The stalls are stand side so it could be you need to be middle to high – Justanotherbottle is the pace this side, maybe he’ll stay there but I thought he was open to attack from more progressive legs. There is pace low, so maybe they’ll get taken into it fine or they all merge, hard to know. Both of mine will need some luck in running but that’s the game in these races here. I always think you’ve got to be a good’un to lead pillar to post in Ascot handicaps on the straight track. Jonah Jones has a chance but is short enough given he’ll need luck if patiently ridden also. Arecibo could be on the wrong side but he’s tricky to win with which makes his price seem short enough. Mountain Peak also arrives in form. So, it’s competitive stuff, the stats tell you the market usually gets this race right, looking at those Top 6 or so.

4.10 Newmarket

Agrigato – just the one in the Bunbury and I thought he looked overpriced given he’s in the form of his life, should be in the right spot on the right side of the track (I think middle to high looks best, but we shall see) and he won LTO as if there was more to come still. If he runs his race i’d be surprised if he wasn’t banging on the door in this and would be shocked if he wasn’t top 5 – we know what happens now.

Of the rest- well again it’s competitive stuff but a few arrive here on the back of poor runs, and/or look too high in the handicap and open to attack from something with more in hand. The top two are obviously solid but 7f here, given how they both ran LTO at Ascot, is now a question – having both matured. I wonder if this will happen a bit too quickly but maybe i’ve that wrong. They should be doing all their best work late and both look progressive. I can hope those Ascot efforts have left a mark although they’ve had long enough to recover. They both look big dangers, but look the right price but I suppose my fear of them has influenced the EW dabble also. Sir Busker has a question over this trip/track also but he does travel powerfully and should be running on – I just thought something may have flown by then. It paid to be on the pace yesterday generally, as the ground was drying out and was pretty hard to come from too far back. That shouldn’t be an excuse for the selection.

4.25 Ascot – Grain Of Sense...

One from the Trainer Profiles quals and it’s possible I’ve no sense or am still feeling the effects of the bubbles but I couldn’t resist at 12s here – the top of the market does look strong but its a 3YO handicap over 2m, at Ascot. It will take some getting and they all have the odd question for me. This one had some decent 2YO form and the way he shaped then suggested he could be a stayer as he matured. I thought it was interesting they run him over this far and that 1st blinkers have been reached for – i’ve no idea what happened LTO, clearly better was expected but he hasn’t run his race for whatever reason – I remember Beckett having one bolt up at Haydock I think in 1st blinkers a few weeks back, and the fact they reach for them suggests to me he’s here to run his race- it’s a silly bullet to waste if he’s not and they may not even know what to expect. Whether they work we shall see, but he shapes as if he’ll stay to me. He beat the Channon horse comfortably enough in one of those Newmarket maidens also. So, we shall see. A poke, but a lively one to finish the day.

GL with any bets, as always.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • Wow, what a day!
    Thanks all for your comments. My twitter feed (can see to the right on desktop) may indicate I’m having a good time haha.
    If I’d have tipped Super shed had UR at the first, but I was quietly confident although didn’t go as mad on her as I did for her Worcester win!
    Obviously delighted to land on MJs two handicap winners to put that tipping pile into a decent place again. I do like top class racing on the flat it seems. Maybe something in that, who knows.
    But if Carlsberg did racing days, well, it doesn’t get any better.
    Have a great evening.
    I will try to attack Saturday’s cards but I hope you excuse me if I’m a tad groggy in the morning. Alols

    Josh 10/07/20 5:18 PM Reply


    • Congratulations. See you at Aintree next April.

      Charles Thomas 11/07/20 8:45 AM Reply


  • No joy on Friday – 0/3 +non runner.

    Each way picks for Saturday.

    Newmarket:
    1.50, Dogged – class winner, course winner and a distance winner. What can go wrong?
    2.25, Mrs Bouquet – Up to 7F which may suit, OK draw.
    3.00, King Zain – won well on his debut, Frankie rides instead of the Gosden runner.
    3.35, Oxted – Trainer in form, decent win first time out this season.
    4.10, Motakhayyel – Crowley pick of Maktoum runners, trainer and jockey course form, winner at Royal Ascot.

    Ascot.
    2.05, Disco Fever – first time in a handicap for Gosden, won well on last run of previous season.
    3.15, Duke Of Hazzard – prolific winner last season, OK effort on seasonal debut.
    3.50, Jonah Jones – looks well handicapped here, decent draw.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 10/07/20 7:36 PM Reply


    • Martin – just for info purposes moving forward… David Egan is retained rider for owners of Seventh Kingdom in 3pm, hence why Frankie wasn’t on – he wouldn’t have had the choice, provided David was there etc.

      Josh 11/07/20 3:18 PM Reply


    • Good work Martin especially with Oxted.

      Chris Albin 11/07/20 5:39 PM Reply


    • A top day that, well done.

      Josh 11/07/20 5:49 PM Reply


  • Well in Josh absolute Dreamers day that brilliant !!!!

    Ryan Mercer 10/07/20 8:17 PM Reply


  • Bunbury Cup: Muntadab 25% ew 5 places 20/1 + Mutamaasik 20% max win 6/1

    heritage sprint: Jawwaal 10% ew at 16s 5 places + Jonah Jones 50% ew 9/1 5 places

    Richard 11/07/20 12:07 AM Reply


    • I tried being a bit too clever yesterday I thought Nazeef was a decent price at 9/2 but ended up backing Agincourt as thought the 20/1 was a bit daft going off their last race, but Nazeef too good again
      So today iv just backed Motakhayyel at 6’s, think he’ll be too good again and think should be fav for me

      Ryan Mercer 11/07/20 9:01 AM Reply


  • Ascot
    1:30 sexy beast e/w
    2:05 vividly e/w
    3:50 wedding date e/w

    Newmarket
    3:35 hello youmzain

    Good lucky everyone

    warren Bottomley 11/07/20 8:01 AM Reply


  • JOSH HOWS YOUR HANGOVER ? 🙂

    martin whittle 11/07/20 8:11 AM Reply


    • Oh i’m fine! I was relatively well behaved, but the coffee is helping!

      Josh 11/07/20 8:27 AM Reply


      • Congrats Josh I had a nice return on her , put her away now and have a nice day out in Wincanton for the Badger ales.

        Desmond O'Brien 11/07/20 8:32 AM Reply


        • Thanks Desmond – we shall see, she’s there to run, just needs 21+ days between races and given prize money situation this year etc I think we will just see what’s on the horizon – she also needs decent ground so waiting for autumn target X could always be pointless depending on the weather. She’s in the form of her life so I doubt we will keep her standing in her box! I won’t get overly excited by the form either, but she wasn’t exactly stopping come the line!
          Onwards,
          Josh

          Josh 11/07/20 11:34 AM Reply


  • Congratulations on yesterday’s win with Really Super you deserve it for all the work you put in on the RTP site thanks Stephen

    Stephen p Williams 11/07/20 8:39 AM Reply


  • Longshots:
    NEWMARKET
    1210 Frontispiece – the time to catch him? After wind op. fresh, Ryan returns
    335 Namos – excellent German yard, first time on soft with strong pace
    410 No Nonsense – A rolling Elsie gathers some Mosse today and this try at 7f should show him at his best
    ASCOT
    130 Landue – previous efforts at 14f have been in C2 and MT has old ally Hayley for his horse
    315 San Donato – capable fresh, G1 form
    350 Final Venture – ideal CD, just beaten twice here, well drawn, Luke riding.

    Chris 11/07/20 8:42 AM Reply


    • Results: 2nd 25/1, L, L, L, 2nd 14/1, 5th 22/1

      Chris 12/07/20 6:34 AM Reply


  • Hope it’s not a daft question guys but what is a ‘Heritage Handicap’ ???

    Ryan Mercer 11/07/20 9:04 AM Reply


  • Vividly Ascot 14:05
    Justanotherbottle Ascot 15:50
    Cardsharp Newmarket 16:10

    NickM 11/07/20 9:12 AM Reply


  • A couple today i like
    N3-00. Devious Company 7-1 0.5 pt ew , 2/2 form franked yesterday by Youth Spirit who he beat 2l lto, i know that was a C4 but it’s a bit of a leap of faith with all of the runners and i like that he won from the front that day.
    4-10. Muntadab 18-1, backed him lto and is only up 3lb for that win , will reinvest some winnings 0.5 pt ew

    martin whittle 11/07/20 9:36 AM Reply


  • Bunbury cup 23 yrs stats
    If you backed a 1st or 2nd LTO runner in this race you would of won 4 of the 23 races.
    97 tried. last winner 2009. (that takes ten out)
    If you back above 16/1 you would of won 2 of them. 182 tried (that takes out another six
    I’ll take out the 7yr+ 2006 last won. take out 3yr old 1998.
    I’m left with one which is not very original
    MUTAMAASIK

    compound dave 11/07/20 10:35 AM Reply


  • What’s all the fuss about?
    Did I miss something yesterday? What happened?

    Chris Albin 11/07/20 11:08 AM Reply


  • Congrats to all involved with Really Super…nice to see the stats performing good as well Josh….quite an amazing day yesterday…hopefully when we all come out of hibernation we will be able to come out from our virtual covid shells and have an actual day at the races sometime to meet and greet and pool our collective wisdom that appears regularly in the blog from all the contributors….good stuff Josh…

    Ascot list runners today:

    15.00 Nmkt. Bright Devil/Saint Lawrence/Snash/Ventura Tormenta
    17.55. Newc. Balavad.

    One selection today 15.00 Nmkt. Hudson River.

    Devious Company., Master of the Seas and Saint Lawrence all have a shout in the 15.00 Nmkt but think Huson river will will win and Devious Company come close and at 7/1 is gd e/w value. Had alook at the 17.55 Newc but very tricky to unravel so no bet .

    Good luck with whatever you bet today and is it too much to ask that we all have a day like yesterday!! All the best

    silver 11/07/20 11:27 AM Reply


    • Disappointing run from Hudson river…not even in the frame ….good shout Martin W to get Devious Company in the frame for a bit of e/w return…but minus 1pt as my only selection. Hopefully better tomorrow.

      silver 11/07/20 3:08 PM Reply


  • Not a big price

    However EASTERN WORLD looks outstanding in the 1.55 at Newmarket

    Godolphin Dubawi colt, looks way better than a 90 rated horse, half brother to RPR 123 Thunder Snow Gr 1 winner by Helmet. Other half brothers by Cape Cross and Shamardal reached RPRS of 113 and 116

    Max win bet

    Richard 11/07/20 11:46 AM Reply


  • Well, on the early Newmarket evidence, while tricky given the race types etc – this nearside rail (low numbers, not high!) looks like some sort of golden highway, middle seems no good- no idea as yet what far side is like. But anything drawn low may be worth even closer attention. We shall see. Mine may be on wrong side in bunbury but maybe that far rail will be fine

    Josh 11/07/20 1:22 PM Reply


  • Who is this fella that keeps picking winners?
    Stop it Josh, just stop it 🙂

    Chris Albin 11/07/20 4:06 PM Reply


  • Nice pick with Jawaal Josh, it’s like the old days on here at the moment 🙂

    Mark Curtis 11/07/20 4:36 PM Reply


    • cheers both, hard to celebrate sadly after what happened to National Anthem, but it was a very good win, and he did enjoy that race set up there. Strong traveller and has annihilated them. Dods doesn’t seem to mess around when he heads to Ascot.
      Ha, well its the nature of the beast, I do seem to enjoy the better class/big races, and struggle to get up for the mid-week stuff, but maybe a case of let the stats/ H etc take care of those, and i’ll save myself for the big ones. There will be some troughs with that approach but i find it emotionally much more fulfilling – ‘a winners, a winner’ – well, technically, but a Saturday ITV winner gives me more of a buzz than a C4 at Thirsk, alas 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 11/07/20 4:41 PM Reply


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