Daily Members Post: 10/07/20 (complete)

Tipsx4 + write up, Quals + Super

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/35,12p, +7.2, +22.5 BFSP)

#1 – 12.10 Newm – Arthurian Fable – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365/BV/BF) UP

#2 – 3.00 Newm – Cape Coast – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (WH) 10/1 (gen) WON

#3 – 3.35 Newm- Overwrite – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP

#4 – 3.35 Newm – Zabeel Champion – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) WON

that’s all for today, x4, as of 08.50, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

12.45 Newm – Junius Brutus (16/1<) H4 9/2  UP

3.00 Newm – Ghostwatch (x2 angles) (7/1< guide) 14/1 2nd

3.00 Newm – Dubai Future (10/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.00 Newm – Dubai Horizon (10/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.00 Newm – Sam Cooke (16/1<) 9/2 UP

3.35 Newm – Al Maysan (7/1<) H3 14/1 ‘DNQ’ (you may ignore price caps anyway, but if following ‘H’ stats quals systematically, i’d ignore the odds) UP

3.35 Newm – Grand Rock (13/2<) 9/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

3.35 Newm – Enemy (any, 20/1< best) 11/2

3.35 Newm – Lucander (16/1<) 9/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

1.15 Newm – Dingle (10/1< guide) 17/2 UP

Jack Mitchell

1.50 Newm – Lucky Louie (any) H4 12/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot-Form

12.45 Newm – Lomu (1st run) H2 4/1 UP

Losing Tips

12.10 Newm- Arthurian Fable (1st run) H2 11/2 UP

3.00 Newm – Dubai Future (1st run) 25/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Newmarket July Cup Meeting

Report HERE>>>

Day 2 ‘Qualifiers‘ (from the above report)

Trainers

12.10

  • Spectrum Of Light (7/1<)

1.15

  • Magical Land (7/1<) H2
  • Naval Crown (7/1<)
  • Yibir (7/1<) H4

3.00

  • Cape Coast (12/1< best) (also Frankie) 
  • Kings Advice (12/1< best)
  • Star of The East (12/1< best)
  • Themaxwecan (12/1< best) H3
  • Ghostwatch (7/1<)

3.35

  • Iffraz (12/1< best)
  • Overwrite (12/1< best) (also Frankie) H1
  • Zabeel Champion (12/1< best)
  • Al Maysan (7/1<) H3
  • Global Storm (7/1<) H4

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A SUPER Summer Plate? 

A preview of sorts below… in truth the watering (morons) / rain has dented confidence a tad… but we’re all hopeful of a big run and that she could be in the places… and if she could get into a rhythm on/near the front end then who knows. I’ve tried to look with dispassionate eyes (always hard with her!) and it does look an open renewal… plenty of exposed types and everything has a question or two to answer… the market may well be right, 6s the field… and i’d fear Bags Groove if a1, both the Nicholl’s charges, possibly Potterman. I suppose Drumcliff could be a lurker at 11s if a1. Maybe Harry Fry does have the answer to this race. Most have bits and pieces of form you could pin some hope on, and that’s good news for us I think. Her race fitness/prominent style should help. But, if they keep getting rain and it’s properly on the soft side, game over I suspect, which would be frustrating…. in any case, if some ‘good’ in the going, 20s EW is generous enough, to my biased eyes anyway. 

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Tips write ups…

Arthurian Fable – he ran well for us at Ascot, especially considering he was drawn wide and Martin Dwyer decided to stay wide/be forceful, and hope to tuck in after a couple of furlongs – that appeared to light him up, he was trapped a bit wide and with no cover. But he kept going and in that context the run can be marked up. This is a lesser race although Group One Power was ahead of him there, but I didn’t think there should be such a disparity. Oisin Murphy has been booked also which is generally a significant jockey upgrade these days, bar the odd exception. Soft ground is ok , his form is solid and he really should be going close in this. Hopefully Andrea A gives him a lead, he can track, settle, pounce and keep going.

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Cape Coast – If you hadn’t noticed i’ve found it hard to get away from the MJ/Frankie stats at this meeting, as per the report, and this one looked worth a go at 11s. He’s lightly raced, arrives in form, stays well, races prominently and Frankie’s on. Ground is a question but he’s by Cape Cross and plenty of those handle cut. Whether he ‘bounces’ is also another niggle but i’ll trust in the trainer who’s had a superb few days and they’re bouncing. Provided he stays sound given his profile/strength of his form, I suspect he’ll prove better than a mark of 90 at some point.

I though his other one, Themaxwecan had more of a ground question and looked about the right price in that context. I thought Cape Coast may be around the 6s/7s mark also. Holy Kingdom is now open to attack from something with more in hand and he only scrambled home LTO and Sam Cooke is short for one making his return after such an absence – but maybe that’s a sign in itself.

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Overwrite – Mark Johnston has won 5 of the last 7 renewals of this race, which influenced me somewhat,esp again when combined with those Frankie stats, the fact the horse races prominently, shapes as if he could relish this trip, arrives in form (well on top come the line there to my eyes) and soft looks fine – it was deep enough when winning at Brighton and fairly soft at Ascot, where he kept going. Frankie may try and lead, or just track his stablemate…

Zabeel Champion – MJ/PJ do rather well when teaming up also and given the trainer’s race record, the horse’s profile, form and another that races on the pace, I thought i’d throw him into the mix also. His sire’s offspring do well enough on soft also and while it’s a cliche, MJs are generally tough – and that is linked to how they train/what they buy them I think – but they do love a scrap and rarely give up/shirk a battle.

I thought they looked overpriced – Kipps clearly has solid form but he can be held up and now they try 1st blinkers – they could spark him up/waste energy on this ground, unless they will now try making all also. Ryan wouldn’t tend to be ultra aggressive though. Global Storm can be held up also and looks open to attack from something better treated. Enemy is interesting but I didn’t think overpriced – it will be interesting to see how they ride him but he does have a stamina question, for a 11/2 shot in soft. I was happy to take him on although he shaped LTO as if worth a go over 10f. Hopefully Oisin is patient and my two MJ horses can dictate this how they please.

GL

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

59 Responses

  1. I saw there was a bit of discussion about draw bias at Newmarket was there any conclusion made? i’m looking at something in the 1-50. 7f race and wondered if high or low was best.

      1. No but there is a pace bias and its line with field size in sprints – stupid me didn’t follow it yesterday otherwise I’d have been on Progressive Rating at 40/1 !!

  2. No joy on Wednesday. On Friday I have four each way picks if eight runners or more (if not then no bet):

    1.00 MR, The Sweeney;
    2.05 MR, Highly Prized;
    3.00 Nkt, Kings Advice;
    3.35 Nkt, Enemy.

    Good luck Martin

  3. Had a quick look at the Summer Plate trying to see something different
    Was wondering if SAN Benedetto could be good enough to take this even carrying topW because with his Ascot run out it would add up to Nicholls trying to take this decent pot with him
    Along with Josh’s the 2 younger runners are Kings and decent prices at 14s and 9s Fidux and Potterman.
    Fidux has had a run out

    Art of Payroll is well in, whether he could still take a race like this at 11yrs. The booking of STD catches the eye tho

  4. Thanks to Burning Cash 17.00 Chepstow returned plus 5.60 pts SP yesterday so will hope to have a small profit today as well if deciding to play. Meantime, here are the Ascot list runners:
    13.15. Newmkt. Magical Land/Saeiga
    13.40. Muss. Samara Bay
    14.25. Nmkt. Dandalla/Time Scale
    14.50. Muss. Tapeten Toni
    16.30. Bath. Katies Kitten/Tempah

    1. Tricky at Nmkt given the going…would want to play at bigger prices if having a bet ….Yibir on pedigree in with shout in the 13.15 and Seattle Rock in the 14.25 but no selections as too much guesswork and these are very competitive…..not much help I know but given the conditions it is an unknown if some f will handle the going….all the best if playing

  5. 14:40 Market Rasen
    SOLOMON GREY 1pt win 17/2 hills 15/2 gen 12/1 bf exchange
    SAN BENEDETO 1pt win 9/1 gen

    19:25 Kilbeggan
    JUDGEMENT DAY 1pt win 8/1 gen
    FULL CRY 1pt win 16/1 gen

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with all your selections today.

  6. A day off from work today, so I’ll dabble in something I’m terrible at – Form and Trends. Josh’s fault for drawing me in with his compelling biased case for Really Super which I don’t think will win but have thrown a fiver e/w at anyway.
    My probable terrible trends criteria for whittling the field down to 4 is as follows –
    Age 7-9
    Best in 3 runs 1st-3rd
    Highest class win higher than C4
    Max dist won 2m3f-3m3f
    Hcp runs 0-14
    Chase wins 1-4
    LTO not Novice Chase

    Leaves Potterman, Royal Village, Fidux and Copper West
    Out goes Royal Village because the trainer is out of form and he’s only running because he ran 2nd in this last year, King is on fire and George is completely unknown which leaves 3 for a reverse forecast.

    Please leave suggestions below for what I can spend my winnings on.
    Thank You and Good Luck

  7. Hi Josh, I know you need affiliations to make money but I find it really irritating when so called tipsters such as Brett Love don’t reveal proofed results . I’ve looked on the 3 main proofing sites and his name only appears on Tipster Review which is 7 random people giving an opinion, no results.
    I would strongly recommend that nobody signs up to his service or any other where the results are not clearly shown.
    Yep I’m officially irked.

    1. Hi Chris,

      Well, in truth affiliations don’t make that much money! 🙂

      I don’t agree with your view of ‘proofing’ re this service, from my personal perspective, as I have different sets of criteria when assessing who to support/trust etc.

      Darren P/The Betting School host his service, and I trust the full spreadsheet of results as per the link on the sales page (at the bottom). They proofed him live to their betting school members for a good few months before promoting him and they generally wouldn’t promote crap deliberately.
      He also went through Geegeez review for 60 days at some point and that got glowing reviews – and from when I last promoted him , over a year ago or so, there’s still X signed up which I assumed meant he’d done ok/some were happy.

      And if you signed up and were not happy in 30 days or so, knowing Darren and how they operate, they’d happily refund.

      I would accept as criticism a general notion of ‘i don’t like any service that tips the evening before’ these days, and i’d understand that – but there aren’t many ‘morning only’ these days and as he sticks to big races/weekend generally, 48h decs, gen more liquidity on BF etc, I think it’s ok.

      Gary/ABW isn’t proofed anywhere I don’t think – well I didn’t look, i did my own proofing for the whole of last flat season to see if I could trust him/results etc.

      I’m sort of the filter, and while I may get it wrong occasionally, in general the my filter has worked ok 🙂

      Although if you have a threshold for being proofed at website X and that’s it, fair enough.

      But i’ve my trusted circle, in addition those that use ClickBank etc, and where i trust the people as much as you can in this business, and that’s that. When it comes to ‘tipping’ services i’ve promoted in last 5 years I still think i’m under 10. Although if any other genuinely good ones i’m all ears! 🙂

      None of my stuff on here is ‘proofed’ and never has been, maybe it should be, but i’ve x number of eyes on everything every day and any results etc are welcome to be questioned.

      Sorry you’re officially irked, never the intention 🙂

      Josh

      1. Probably because he went to Darren/the Betting School to help him host it/market etc, they do all their own proofing etc so I assume that’s why. Smart Betting Club would take a cut etc of anything proofed I assume – which is fine as a service owner… but Betting School/Darren will have a fee, add in something like SBC on top of that and it becomes a bit pointless for said tipster.
        I think he used to proof in RP also.
        Anyway, i’ve no real issues with the results overall from what i’ve seen/my experience.
        Josh

  8. Ok sorry for my irky post! I didn’t see the link to the results (hidden away at the bottom of the page).
    I think it’s very important to show/proof results for many reasons.
    I’d want to know the price ranges used, win or e/w, losing runs, price availability, advised to BFSP comparison, bets per day, when the bets go out etc.
    Why waste time on a service profitable and reputable or not if it doesn’t suit?
    So apologies if you thought I was questioning your integrity Josh that isn’t the case, I have a terrible habit of ranting about tipsters that I feel are not transparent with results. I’ll take a deep breath and walk away for a minute in future or scroll to the bottom of the website.

    1. No need to apologise Chris, it was a polite valid question and they’re always welcome. And I didn’t take it as questioning my integrity. But to my eyes there was a valid answer.
      With anyone I promote/service I try to have as high as threshold as possible.
      I suspect there is something irksome about every service depending on what your own criteria etc and Brett Love won’t suit everyone, neither will ABW and many others. And plenty don’t care for tipsters anyway.
      But, if something irks you, always best to ask!

  9. Irrespective of integrity, I tried Brett Love for a while last flat season and he was the worst tipster I’ve ever seen.

    1. There isn’t a tipster around that, depending on when you join/start, won’t look like the worst tipster you’ve ever see at some point haha.
      His Cheltenham and Royal Ascot this year were quite spectacular I believe.
      But yep, as per results spreadsheet you can see the down swings, but at those odds/race types, I’m yet to find a service that doesn’t drop chunks of points every now and then sadly, and that can last for a while. His long term record since end 2017 is very good.
      There’s a service I can think of who for a few years looked best/most consistent around in big races, but now having a torrid time and anyone joining then in recent history may come to same conclusion as you. But they’ll bounce back.

      The irony of course is that the best time to join a service is when they’re having a shocking run, before the upturn. But that’s always a harder sell on all parts. And keeping confidence during a shocker is hard, and can be near impossible.

      1. True, I am not known for my patience 🙂 I think what got me was I was picking winners or placed horses in the races he was having losers in and I don’t charge myself for the privilege! Still, each to their own:-)

        1. i am honiured you putz up wiv me then .. innit 🙂
          roll on AW September my sandy buddy !
          lgb.. waiting 🙂

      2. I’m a bit of a spreadsheet nerd so I like results to be recorded properly, none of that mix of text, numbers or dates in the same cell, that is just utter nonsense. How am I supposed to drill down without re-writing the the whole damn thing or writing a ton of unnecessary code. Tipsters who are left alone with a spreadsheet should without any prior experience or training should be thrown in the sea or made to wear pink lycra in public for making my nerdiness more difficult than it should be.

  10. Given Hobbs has had a winner after his previous 6 got beat by almost 90% of all runners since restart so adding Imperial Presence Market Rasen 14:40 since trainer form was the main reason I left him out.

  11. Recording results
    Whether you are a £2 FUN punter as the bookies call or a £200 a bet person, records should be kept.
    £2 FUN punter, they have a decent income coming in from work, and not to bothered about loses for over a month still have money left over.
    Those £2 bets over 12 months really add up, and if records had been kept the individual would probably be shocked how much they have lost, but it is only FUN.
    I was one of the original members of RTP and over whatever time span have always stressed about recording the bets, however none hardly ever agreed, one who did is Ken Mckenzie and Ken used to record my results even though I recorded them on here myself, was I upset over this, course not delighted for I have never tried to cheat or manipulate prices.
    I for one do not enjoy throwing my cash down the drain, that is the reason i keep records, and the last I heard 96% losers 4% winners, so are we all winning with our bets???
    Start today.
    Colin.

    1. So true Colin, so true. You have no chance of winning long term if records of every bet you make are not kept, even the small bets, they do add up as you correctly point out.
      I guess most if not all on here keep records and the more detail the better. Although I prefer not to use it as I have my own set up the bet recording tool on GG’s is a step in the right direction to see what races you are good/bad at price ranges are important too.
      Bankroll management is absolutely vital to have any chance of success. A method I use to calculate my stake is to calculate the expected longest losing streak then decide how much of your bank you are prepared to lose if the run occurs, in my case its one third. Now divide the bank by the expected longest losing streak then divide by 3 or whatever proportion you choose.
      So bank of 1000 with an expected longest losing streak of 40 and divide by 3 would give me a stake of 8.33 or 8. As the the bank increases your stake should increase and your risk proportion should decrease too.
      Calculating the expected longest losing streak for me is important as it’s good mentally to have an idea of how bad things could go in advance and if the number is 40 there is no need to worry if it starts getting over 20 which some may do if they don’t plan in advance for this.
      In excel the expected longest losing streak calculation (rounded up) =ROUNDUP(LOG10(winners)/-LOG10(1-strike rate),0)

  12. That 5 furlong handicap had 7 non runners due to ‘unsuitable going’

    The time was less than 2 seconds slower than standard.

    Something not right here.

    blooming watered last week and on Monday, rain Tues, wed, thurs… races decimated

    Irrigation is supposed to prevent non runners by making ground safe, in this case (again) it just ends up
    ruining racing. I loathe it. Let them run on fast going. Trainers can run elsewhere if worried.

    1. Congratulations Josh, that must have bee some rush
      with you being at the course as well, was that you in the
      beige trousers i saw on tv chasing after her as she passed the line.

  13. That was brilliant Josh, well done and well deserved. I didn’t have a bean on (I backed Fidux!) but I hope and trust you did. Very pleased for you.

  14. There’s only one Really Super!!!!!

    I threw a few quid on her at BFSP as at that price I could not take the chance not to.

    Easiest winner of the day….I shall have a beer for you Josh.

  15. Awesome stuff £5 e/w 25-1 bog get in.
    Thank you Josh.
    You must be doing handstands
    Congrats on an awesome win.

  16. omg .. well done josh … keeping the faith .. that horse has a heart of gold and must be bigger than frankels !! or even maybe pharlaps !! … have got doubles and singles with it …… sweating kingston kanga..so,ething or other later for retirement dividend 😉 .. with my girl hollie up … your girl has flown in ……. no pressure hollie 🙂
    But just brilliant and really chuffed for you young man and Amy what a under the radar trainer she is … not anymore for sure 🙂 … can go and waist my winnings on some other unsuspecting nags 🙂

    All the best from us at the RTP Village Betting BAKERY 🙂 !!

  17. Hear Hear Josh, many congrats and well done on the winning tips. Let’s see Brett Love suck the bones out o that for a tipping performance 🙂

    1. Hahaha, well at my best I always thinks there’s noone better, but just a case of showing it!!! Ha onwards

  18. Wow, what a day!
    Thanks all for your comments. My twitter feed (can see to the right on desktop) may indicate I’m having a good time haha.
    If if have tipped Super shed had UR at the first, but I was quietly confident although didn’t go as mad on her as I did for her Worcester win!
    Obviously delighted to land on MJs two handicap winners to put that tipping pile into a decent place again. I do like top class racing on the flat it seems. Maybe something in that, who knows.
    But if Carlsberg did racing days, well, it doesn’t get any better.
    Have a great evening.
    I will try to attack Saturday’s cards but I hope you excuse me if I’m a tad groggy in the morning. Alols

  19. Hooraaaayyy. Well done Josh, Amy and team. So pleased for you all. You’ll have to work out whether Amy qualifies for any of your micro’s??!! Enjoy your evening.

  20. Fantastic result for you Josh.Well done to all concerned-a beautiful winner for an OAP to have a few euros on and it on terrestrial tv too !

  21. Definitely cant think of a better racing day in my 48 or so years on the planet. Great day, great company!

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