Daily Members Post: 09/07/20 (complete)

14/1 Guest tip, Quals etc

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/35,12p, +7.2, +22.5 BFSP)

None from me today. There’s a 14/1 ‘guest tip’ at the bottom of the post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.50 York – Always Resolute (9/1<) 8/1 UP

5.20 York – Brother McGonagall (9/1<) 40/1 ‘DNQ’

7.00 Chep – Double Up (9/1<) H4 6/1

8.00 Chep – Night Of Fashion (16/1<)  28/1 ‘DNQ’

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

2.40 York- Lake Lucerne 14/1 UP

Trainers/Sires

7.00 Chep – In The Cove (10/1< guide) 6/1

Jim Crowley (any)

1.15 Newm – Maydanny H2 8/11 UP

3.00 Newm – Qaader H1 9/4 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Losing Tips

2.25 Newm – Miss Yoda (1st run) H2 8/1 UP

7.00 Chep – Double Up (1st run) H4 6/1

Eye-Catcher

12.45 Newm – Nahaarr (2nd run) H1

Hot-Form

3.45 York – Rhythmic Intent (2nd run) H1 5/2 WON 5/2>15/8 (bigger earlier, alas)

 

5.Other/Updates

 

Newmarket July Cup Meeting

Report HERE>>>

Day 1 ‘Qualifiers‘ (from the above report)

Trainers

12.10 – Miss Jingles (7/1<) 10/3 UP

2.25 – West End Girl (any, 12/1< best) 50/1

2.25 – Dawn Rising (any)  H3 7/4 2nd

4.10 – Communique (any, 12/1< best) 15/2 2nd

*

Guest Tip

As it’s quiet from me again and given he tipped an 11/1 winner yesterday, hopefully pleasing the 40 or so of you who took up the trial month and the 20 or so who’ve stayed patient/loyal since last season’s all-weather promo, i’ll share Gary’s tip/write up, and hope he doesn’t mind… given his mark, this one looks worth tracking whatever he does today. No doubt I’ve now cursed him so apols, but still…

1.30 York – DAAWY – 14/1 – EW UP 22/1

Four from the trackers going H2H; with Northern Lyte, Ulshaw  Bridge, Amadeus Grey and Daawy.

We had a punt about Northern Lyte last month but was a no show at Beverley and the Tinkler yard are yet to hit form. James Bethell’s Ulshaw Bridge missed the break LTO and was held up a good way by Atzeni before finishing into 5th. Nonetheless, this 10f looks a bit of a stretch and will pass over.

Tim Easterby is hopeful that Amadeus Grey will get this trip and beyond, though yet to prove so far and despite being on a roll with a pair of Easterby winners of late, will oppose with Roger Fell’s DAAWY.

Well proven over this 10f trip, he does seem to have the senior members of his string in good order with the likes of Muntadab, Rousayan and Presidential all running well to press.

The charge was noted in our tracker LTO at Ayr when we said that it ‘could have been an under the radar run’, making some late progress to take third. He’s now down on 80 and bang around those 2018 wins. With plenty of rain in the forecast, he’s well proven on the like and goes well on big galloping expanses.

He looks to have an ideal draw to come with a traffic free run off the back and looks a decent price this morning for some place money.

***

YOU CAN TAKE YOUR 1 MONTH TRIAL HERE>>> 

I’ve found Gary’s approach an enjoyable way to follow a service – EW tips in the morning, prices generally holding, only 6-8 tips per week on average giving you plenty of ‘space’ to do your own thing also, decent write ups, tracker posts and transparency. Since he first introduced himself to me he’s pulled in +90 points last flat season, +67 points in the winter all-weather season and now he’s 40+ points up this flat season to date. Not to curse him but he’s been bloody good in recent years, and if you do want to follow someone else’s tips on the level, especially outside of ‘big races’, he’s worth trialling, and there’s an exclusive offer for RTP readers,  which you can take up HERE>>>

*

I’ll be back later on today with a ‘Thursday Trends’ post, if I can find anything of note for  2/3 big handicaps over the weekend.

Josh

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Ascot list runners:
    12.10. Newmk. Willabell
    14.05. York. Bungledupinblue/Furlong Factor/Pelekai/Sardinia Sunset
    15.00. Newmkt. Tactical/Yazaman
    16.20. York. Muker
    17.00. Chep. Identified/Vedute.

    1. Have done the figures for all the Ascot list runners today so here are the selections:

      12.10. Nmkt. Broad Stripes/Miss Jingles
      14.05. York. Miss Nay Never
      15.00. Nmkt. Tactical
      16.20. York. Muker/Nomadic Empire
      17.00. Chep. Vedute/Burning Cash.

      Hopefully, there will be winners amongst these. All the best if deciding to play.

      1. Just a note on the selections today, they were put up (and yes,I have already backed them!)before the overnight rain and the going change so hope the ground dries out a bit and no one waters so,hopefully, will not make too much difference if it stays dry before racing.

        1. I have just read that the ground has been watered!…Is this true??? If it is cannot believe the stupidity of the clerks…ruins racing and makes it impossible to consider having a bet…this is the flat season not NH,…can anyone confirm they have watered thanks

          1. yep, all up on BHA site per course etc – well, York hasn’t got watering details. Newmarket watered last Wed, Sat/Sun, Mon and then stopped when the forecast changed. I’m no expert on such things and whats needed to maintain Good to Firm etc when sunny/breezy, but obv watering is normal in such conditions. But when rains come it’s hell. I suppose if they don’t water Monday, and the rains don’t come, we get a load of non runners for too firm ground.
            Given the forecasts/info on BHA etc it was clear enough the flat tracks would be going softer today I think.

            Of most annoyance for me is Market Rasen – unless that forecast has drastically changed from nowhere, they watered 10mm monday and Tues – a disgrace really, given rain around and had 14mm+ since yesterday :(, and now GS in places and still some showers about – which isn’t great for horses like Super etc. Frustrating.

          2. Cheers Josh…cannot understand the policy….. British summer always rains unless exceptionally dry summer which we have not had this year ….spoils flat racing because all you get is dour stayers winning not the best horses….really annoys the hell out of me to be honest and makes any analysis virtually impossible as always ends up with false ground…hey ho on we go as it is not going to change…thanks.

          3. Agree – it wasn’t as if rain wasn’t forecast and its been a shock. York is called the Knavesmire for a reason it becomes (for me) unfathomable once soft gets into the going description. Luckily the 2 I fancied today are both non runners now

          4. Watering always been problematical and understand the difficulties the clerks have but when the forecast is for rain and they still water makes you wonder what they are thinking, you water and it rains you get false going then some clerks are not forth coming with the truth and falsely misrepresent the actual going as they do not want a load of non runners so punters between a rock and a hard place…perennial problem but that does not resolve the issues surrounding the watering policy, given that some clerks are rather economical with the truth in regards to going desriptions.

  2. Ruth Carr has a few of interest at York, e/w patent on Mutamaded 12.55 Tricorn 13.30 and Kylie Rules 17.20 GL all

  3. longshot lunacy at York.
    12-25. Singe Anglais 33-1 5p £2 ew
    12-55. Bolder Bob 66-1 £1 ew
    1-30. Daawy 12-1 £4 ew
    3-45. Music Seeker 12-1 £2 ew
    10p ew L15

  4. What a brilliant afternooon’s racing – for a Thursday.
    The Newmarket card is challenging so I’ve tried to find some value lurking
    1245 Reputation
    150 Separate
    225 Sound of Cannons
    300 Victory Heights
    335 Classy Moon
    410 Forest Ranger
    And in a further display of my eccentricity/foolhardiness, I think Maydanny 115 is a Lay.

  5. Exceptionally tricky day with the rain, non runners and doubts about draw and track biases

    I’m sitting it out.

    I selected KYLIE RULES for the 5.20 York earlier in the week when 40/1 was available but been halved in price so no bet.

    Friday looks better, good to everyone today

  6. Regarding watering of watering courses have said on here many times the going reports from courses can often be wrong.
    Haydock and Stratford are terrible, Stratford was still advertising good going at the course, even after the 1st race and everyone knew it was closer to soft than good, this was possibly 10 years ago, for I have never seen my friend Dai Williams explode at the clerk of the course before, thought it was coming to blows, has he said when you have an horse ready to run a big race, owner or owners turn up with anticipation of a possible win ruined by the lies of the clerk of the course over ground conditions.
    Chepstow this morning was advertsing gd/firm ground, now down to good!!!
    Last 2 days no bets at all over the rain and ground.
    Colin.

    1. It is not about whether it is raining it is about the volume of rain the course takes before it can drain. I would say that you need at least 5 MM within 6 hours of the race to make a decent impact.
      Too much is made of subtle differences made by a bit of rain. One day they may move away from sticking a stick in the ground to measure the going??? Listen to the jockeys after the first race as a guide.

      And another thing……get some decent weather forecasters. They turn out some tripe on BBC. Bring back Wincey Willis (who? google her!).

      Rant over…..moved on.

      1. Yep…using a stick to measure going descriptions definitely not state of the art! You are right to have moved on.

      2. Well the issue does seem to be the amount of watering, as obv they can’t do much about the rain! And that must be linked to dodgy forecasting – Stratford ruined their ground due to over-watering, Market Rasen is on the way to- but hopefully will be ok if it stops now.
        Its tricky but yep must be some forecasting issues.
        I mean the Turftrax etc is a rather more complex computerised stick!!

        As for what the actual ground is on any given day etc, well who knows. I think timeform’s ‘actual’ going based on times would be quite eye-opening!
        Accurate going desc and the watering issue are real issues but the industry doesn’t seem to want to do much about it.
        Horsemen were complaining last flat season about over-watering.
        Obv changeable forecasts don’t help but still annoying – esp if you own a summer jumper who’s best on top of the ground!!

        Josh

        1. Hi Josh…seemed to have disturbed a hornets nest….a computerised stick is still a stick and not totally reliable, best to listen to going descriptions from jockeys after the first race but as we all know these are not accurate either, as it depends if the jockey has won the race or not! There is a real issue here, as you point out but if no one is prepared to address the issues then the current situation will continue as a systematic approach to resolve going issues, including measurement , accurate descriptions and watering is never going to take place.

          1. If you head over to the Turftrax website you can see the going map for Nmkt and York which gives the breakdown for the going over the whole course so even the term gd to soft is relative to which part of the course you look at.

      3. Hi Mr Grumpy Ha Ha
        nothing to do with Millwall losing!!!
        Raining in Sheffield for 2 days and 2 night non stop, York is not that far away as the crow flies.
        Yesterday strongly fancied 2 horses at Newbury morning gd/firm, evening racing gd/soft, when adviceing bets around 10 am decisions over the rain have to be made and last night no bet was the correct decision for neither horse was placed for they do not perfom on ground with the word soft in.
        Today 2 potential bets at York both have lost but could not advice for the rain was coming, again there are plenty of betting opportunities over the year, not to take risks over the going.
        Colin.

        1. Hi Colin Not sure you meant me as not a Millwall fan but will take Mr Grumpy lol…just sometimes the watering issue touches a nerve…All the best

  7. Great win yesterday for the guest tipper. The sign up offer has already been repayed with interest.

    Its shotgun Thursday

    2:05 York Sardinia sunset/furlong factor e/w
    2:25 new dawn rising/damage control e/w
    2:40 York pocket square/albaflora e/w
    3:00 new tactical/yazaman/escape route e/w
    3:15 youk Highest ground/cormorant e/w
    3:35 new dancin inthestreet/troubador e/w/volatile analyst e/w
    4:10 new enbihaar/alounak

    Small stakes bit of fun today.
    As always good luck everyone 🙂

  8. Just as I put that lot up she’s so nice just won the first at newmarket miss nay never runs in the 2:05 york finished just behind at Thirsk last time out.

    1. She is just brilliant …. has been secret weapon against the enemy for sometime .. in a nutshell .. she never gives up ….. she rode a similar situation at wimdsor .. practically picked the horse up and got it over the line despite being squeezed onto the rail … little miss rambo !! i love her …. i know i know …….steady mc !! 🙂
      lgb 🙂

        1. what a lady fully deserved my Hollie and the horse 😉
          thanks for putting that up chris .. appreciated 🙂

          lgb (a little in love 😉 )

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.