Daily Members Post: 08/07/20 (complete)

Quals, new posts / Newm report

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/35,12p, +7.2, +22.5 BFSP)

None, I won’t be looking on Wed. A day off on that front before the racing steps up a gear. And given my form i’m tempted to leave the mediocre weekday stuff to the stats, while trying to focus on  ‘big handicaps’ to see if I have any more luck there – I’ll also be hoping Really Super gets in the Summer Plate – we need 3 above her to come out I think, 7 not jocked up yet so here’s hoping…and it’s a G3 now – i’d be mildly surprised if she’s good enough but Amy’s never had her in better form at home, so we can dream. And we will try and jump them silly/stretch them.  At least she has race fitness on her side. Hopefully no rain around but I haven’t looked. Plenty below to muse over inc Newmarket pointers…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.40 Ripon – Kings Castle (12/1< guide) H2 13/8 UP

6.10 Newb – Wren (any) (x2 angles) 10/1 UP 20/1

6.10 Newb – Mars Landing (14/1< guide) 10/1 2nd

8.10 Newb – Make It Rain (12/1< guide) H3 9/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sires/Breeding

8.10 Newb – Dubai Quality (any) H4 11/2

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

8.10 Newb – Make It Rain (2nd run) H3 9/1

Hot-Form

8.10 Newb – Sorrel (1st run) 7/2

 

 

5.Other/Updates

Micro Monday Post:A look at Jack Mitchell HERE>>>

NEW: Tracker Tuesday: more Hot-Form horses HERE>>>

 

NEW: Newmarket July Meeting

‘Micros’ for Charlie Appleby, Mark Johnston and Aidan O’Brien, as well as a jockey to note

Report HERE>>>

Any ‘trends races’ will follow, most likely on ‘Trends Thursday’, with a focus on C2+, 3YO+, 4YO+ handicaps… I will look at The Bunbury Cup which is run on Saturday. There’s a 1m6f handicap from Newmarket on the Friday and the 3.50 Ascot on the Saturday of potential interest. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. In case folks didn’t see it in Tuesday’s post, I’m reposting my comment: Adam Wedge has had 8 runners in 7 days with only 1 place, until today when he had 3 firsts and a 2nd out of 5 runners. He does well with handicap chasers (mentioned on RTP I believe) and has 3 on Wednesday at Stratford, 2.20pm Court Royale 10/1, 2.50 Peterborough 10/1 & 3.50 Vendredi Trois 6/1, same trainers as today. He also has two other rides at Stratford in hurdles.
    GL all

    1. For handicap chasers dropping in class he is 5/9 +39.5 pts so far this year, and 16/46 +90.5 pts since 2018. This includes today’s winner Irish Prophecy and two tomorrow 2.50 Peterborough & 3.50 Vendredi Trois.

      Chris R.

      1. Yep, for the life of me I can’t find that Adam Wedge research post, maybe an old micro Monday but I can’t find the link.

        But yep that angle was fairly straight forward, standard hncp chases drop 1 class.
        16/1< as a guide, 0/13,0p above since 2009. Dropping 2 or more classes is 1/35, 12p - 32 SP since start 2012. Although 0/8,3p since start 2019. The Emma Lavelle 'autumn' angle starts in August but she could well have them bouncing now by the looks of things. Evan Williams had a winner also and if both of those yards start firing then Wedge should have a good run. A very very good jumps jockey now getting the recognition but maybe not by the punting public just yet.

        1. and our old friend Emma lavelle .. she used to be all the ragee for angles on here over the years ??….. i also had her down as a ” sit up and take notice” when down at the west country especially newton abbot 😉
          p.s. i think my local trainer is upto somefing with : 18.40 nb JACKPOT ROYALE …..i think there is going to be a monumental gamble on this e/w ( already started) 🙁 .. availed myself to 41.00 on bf last night .. now 21.00 🙂 .. may be a back to lay for me now 🙂 money for nothing 🙂
          good luck one n all 🙂
          Lgb

          1. I have Jackpot Royale in my tracker and took the 40’s last night with what looks like his ideal conditions. So hope you are right George.

        2. Did someone way soemthing abut Adam Wedge, one for Lavelle and one for Williams this afternoon!!!

  2. Just the one again yesterday.

    12:35 Ripon zim baby
    1:10 Ripon justified and thunderking as an e/w saver.
    8:10 Newbury make it rain

    E/w punts
    2:10 Ripon star of Southwold
    2:50 Ripon cilliens well
    5:40 Newbury eye of the water
    6:10 Newbury tremor

    Good luck today everyone

  3. No joy on Tuesday with the single selection.

    Four for Wednesday:

    12.15 Str, Balagan;
    12.45 Str, Leapaway;
    3.50 Str, Play The Ace;
    5.10 Nb, The Circus.

    Good luck Martin

  4. I see Mark Johnston has Maydanny in a C3 handicap at HQ on Thursday

    The micro is for C1&2 only

    What is the C3 record? I like the horse, dropped in grade. Looks a bet

    1. C3/4 he’s 1/21, 4p, -18… in handicaps 0/11,3p…

      Not good enough for ‘festival micro angle’ purposes, but I wouldn’t use such stats to put you off if you like the price, which is partly why I don’t include the ‘negative’ stats anymore, as they’re too micro to be deterred, esp if added into subjective form analysis, and why I like to focus on any positive uplifts if I can – although some of the 0/X stats can be eye popping enough, but not really those ones!
      GL
      Josh

  5. Ascot list runners:
    16.40. Newb. Astimegoesby/Nelson Gray
    17.10. Newb. The Circus.

    Both races tricky to decipher because of the going and competitive so have no picks. Took a good look at the 17.10 and thought the Hannon runner, Bay of Whispers……currently 40’s , 33’s and 25’s depending on bookmaker represents a bit of e/w value depending on what you can get in terms of places….Betfair sports book offering 5 places at 12/1 5th of the odds and thought this was a bit of value in a race that the the market at the top is tight. They may go a good pace in the 17.10 and give a chance for stayers to pick up the pieces and the Doncaster race that Bay of Whispers ran in was ok. Overall may be best to give both races a swerve. All the best if playing.

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