Micro Monday: A Jockey In Focus

does this pilot fly under the radar?

 

Jockey In Focus 

Jack Mitchell 

I’m not really sure why I homed on Jack as a ‘jockey in focus’ but I noted he’d been riding a few decent priced winners lately, topped off with a good ride on Gussy Mac at 10s in that Listed contest from Sandown on Saturday. He rides for some decent trainers, including Roger Varian, and I thought there was a chance he’s improved in the last year. And/or is getting to ride better horses. In 2019 he was riding at a 17% win SR on all rides having averaged around the 12-14% in previous years. In 2020 to date he’s operating at a 20% win SR on all rides.

When trying to assess a jockey’s ‘skill’ you can use something called Impact Value as a guide.

(Matt B over at Geegeez explains metrics – AE / IV/ PRB – better than I do, in an article you can read HERE>>>

When looking at all Flat/AW jockeys to have had 50+ rides in the last 365 days he is the 4th best in the UK when it comes to ‘impact value’, riding winners nearly twice as often as the average of all jockeys in the period. It could be said then that him being up in the plate has a positive impact, more so than many other jockeys. Certainly in the last year. (just using that skills based metric)

On that particular benchmark there’s only three ahead of him in that time… Frankie Dettori, Jim Crowley and William Buick.

So, all in all a solid basis for further interrogation.

*

PACE/Race Position

Jack appears to be very good when leading or racing prominently… in the last year with all rides on the Flat/AW, when getting the lead or sitting just off it…

234 rides/ 65 wins / 120p / 28% sr / +64 SP / AE 1.24 / IV 2.77

If you think he may lead, or race prominently, his mount could be worth a much closer look.

My thanks to Geegeez Gold Query tool for those snippets.

Now, jumping over to Horse Race Base…

I’ll just focus on rides since the start of 2018, when he had 483 rides, his most ever at the time. Last year it was 521. It appears he’s now getting the leg up more often, although he’s been riding for years.

It’s apparent that he rides a few tracks particularly well and below is a micro of sorts… again, all since the start of 2018…

 

Micro Angle

  • Jockey: Jack Mitchell
  • Class 4/5/6
  • Handicaps
  • Tracks: Chester / Kempton/ Wolverhampton / Yarmouth/ Chelsmford 
  • Any odds (10/1< best)

256 rides/ 64 wins / 119p / 25% sr / +133 SP / +200 BFSP / BF AE 1.72

Of Note, within this micro:-

  • 10/1<SP: 194 rides/ 59 wins/ 106p/ 30% sr / +167 BFSP
  • 11/1-20/1 SP: 5/47, 12p, +49 BFSP
  • 25/1+ : 0/15, 1p

*

Trainer Pointers (2018>)

Roger Teal (all rides)

40 bets / 9 wins / 14p / 23% sr / +29 SP / +41 BFSP / BF AE 1.76

Trainer/Tracks

All rides/ any odds…

  • R Varian/ Wolvs: 38 rides/ 15 wins / 27p / 39% sr / +32 SP / +45 BFSP / BFAE 1.67
  • Simon Crisford/Lingfield: 12 bets / 6 wins / 7p / 50% sr / +6 SP / +8 BFSP / BFAE 1.73
  • Hugo Palmer/Wolvs: 17 bets / 5 wins / 10p/ 29% sr / +19 SP / +25 BFSP / BFAE 1.92
  • Roger Varian/Bath: 7 bets / 5 wins / 6p / 71% sr / +6 SP / +7 BFSP / BFAE 1.64

 

Course & Distance

All rides/race types/any odds…

  • Wolvs/7-7.5f: 43 bets / 12 wins / 28% sr/ +30 SP / +41 BFSP / BFAE 1.45
  • Wolvs: 9-9.5f: 30 bets / 10 wins / 18p / 33% sr / +23 SP / +29 BFSP / BFAE 2.16
  • Wolvs: 12-12.5f: 22 bets / 9 wins / 14p / 41% sr / +24 SP / +33 BFSP / BFAE 2.16
  • Kempton/7-7.5f: 38 bets / 8 wins / 13p / 21% sr / +26 SP / +40 BFSP / BFAE 1.41

*

 

So, a few pointers there for you to absorb and use as you please, including for those of you who like ‘the sand’ 🙂

Happy Punting,

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Thanks for this, useful.
    Kevin Stott is being well used since the resumption, currently 18% in 2020.
    Any insights you can unearth, in a spare moment or two?

    1. Hi Chris, i’ll take a look at him when I get a moment – his AE/IV stats not as good as Jack above, and he’s more so a stable jockey now to Kevin Ryan I think ,or is certainly riding more and more for him since his relocation back up north – so, their fate/future performance could be tied together more, but there’s no doubt certain circumstances where he excels – he is very good, strong in a finish – and is clearly decent on the pace also.

      1. My thoughts are impressionistic, but optimistic, he’s ridden for abt 15 different trainers other than Ryan, in the last 2 weeks, and had four winners for them, so I was hoping that some tally of those external rides would produce a micro, maybe. The data could be skimpy though, so use your time wisely?

    1. Thanks Tom. Indeed it’s ticking along, always pleasing when the early signs in live play are good. I do post any qualifiers in the daily posts to save yourself the work of finding them. Thankfully I managed to tip one of them. Hopefully he can build on it. Onwards. Josh

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