Jockey In Focus
I’m not really sure why I homed on Jack as a ‘jockey in focus’ but I noted he’d been riding a few decent priced winners lately, topped off with a good ride on Gussy Mac at 10s in that Listed contest from Sandown on Saturday. He rides for some decent trainers, including Roger Varian, and I thought there was a chance he’s improved in the last year. And/or is getting to ride better horses. In 2019 he was riding at a 17% win SR on all rides having averaged around the 12-14% in previous years. In 2020 to date he’s operating at a 20% win SR on all rides.
When trying to assess a jockey’s ‘skill’ you can use something called Impact Value as a guide.
(Matt B over at Geegeez explains metrics – AE / IV/ PRB – better than I do, in an article you can read HERE>>>)
When looking at all Flat/AW jockeys to have had 50+ rides in the last 365 days he is the 4th best in the UK when it comes to ‘impact value’, riding winners nearly twice as often as the average of all jockeys in the period. It could be said then that him being up in the plate has a positive impact, more so than many other jockeys. Certainly in the last year. (just using that skills based metric)
On that particular benchmark there’s only three ahead of him in that time… Frankie Dettori, Jim Crowley and William Buick.
So, all in all a solid basis for further interrogation.
Jack appears to be very good when leading or racing prominently… in the last year with all rides on the Flat/AW, when getting the lead or sitting just off it…
234 rides/ 65 wins / 120p / 28% sr / +64 SP / AE 1.24 / IV 2.77
If you think he may lead, or race prominently, his mount could be worth a much closer look.
My thanks to Geegeez Gold Query tool for those snippets.
Now, jumping over to Horse Race Base…
I’ll just focus on rides since the start of 2018, when he had 483 rides, his most ever at the time. Last year it was 521. It appears he’s now getting the leg up more often, although he’s been riding for years.
It’s apparent that he rides a few tracks particularly well and below is a micro of sorts… again, all since the start of 2018…
- Jockey: Jack Mitchell
- Class 4/5/6
- Tracks: Chester / Kempton/ Wolverhampton / Yarmouth/ Chelsmford
- Any odds (10/1< best)
256 rides/ 64 wins / 119p / 25% sr / +133 SP / +200 BFSP / BF AE 1.72
Of Note, within this micro:-
- 10/1<SP: 194 rides/ 59 wins/ 106p/ 30% sr / +167 BFSP
- 11/1-20/1 SP: 5/47, 12p, +49 BFSP
- 25/1+ : 0/15, 1p
Trainer Pointers (2018>)
Roger Teal (all rides)
40 bets / 9 wins / 14p / 23% sr / +29 SP / +41 BFSP / BF AE 1.76
All rides/ any odds…
- R Varian/ Wolvs: 38 rides/ 15 wins / 27p / 39% sr / +32 SP / +45 BFSP / BFAE 1.67
- Simon Crisford/Lingfield: 12 bets / 6 wins / 7p / 50% sr / +6 SP / +8 BFSP / BFAE 1.73
- Hugo Palmer/Wolvs: 17 bets / 5 wins / 10p/ 29% sr / +19 SP / +25 BFSP / BFAE 1.92
- Roger Varian/Bath: 7 bets / 5 wins / 6p / 71% sr / +6 SP / +7 BFSP / BFAE 1.64
Course & Distance
All rides/race types/any odds…
- Wolvs/7-7.5f: 43 bets / 12 wins / 28% sr/ +30 SP / +41 BFSP / BFAE 1.45
- Wolvs: 9-9.5f: 30 bets / 10 wins / 18p / 33% sr / +23 SP / +29 BFSP / BFAE 2.16
- Wolvs: 12-12.5f: 22 bets / 9 wins / 14p / 41% sr / +24 SP / +33 BFSP / BFAE 2.16
- Kempton/7-7.5f: 38 bets / 8 wins / 13p / 21% sr / +26 SP / +40 BFSP / BFAE 1.41
So, a few pointers there for you to absorb and use as you please, including for those of you who like ‘the sand’ 🙂