Daily Members Post: 07/07/20 (complete)

Tips x3 + notes, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/35,12p, +7.2, +22.5 BFSP)

#1 – 1.15 Pont – Music Therapist – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365) 11/2 (WH) 5/1 (SB/Uni) UP 9/4

#2 – 2.20 Ponte – Billy Roberts – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) UP

#3 – 3.55 Ponte – Golden Apollo – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365/WH) 7/2 (gen) UP 5/1

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.15 Pont – Music Therapist (8/1<) H1 5/1 UP 9/4

3.55 Pont – Golden Apollo H2 4/1 UP 5/1

7.45 Leic – A Star Above (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H2 5/4

7.45 Leic – Au Clair De Lune (8/1<)  H1 9/4

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot-Form

2.20 Ponte – Billy Roberts  (1st run) H4 4/1 UP

Losing Tips 

6.00 Kilarney – Paloma Blue (1st run) H2 11/2 / Robin Des Foret H1  3/1 (1st run)

 

5.Other/Updates

Micro Monday... new post with a possible ‘under the radar’ pilot, worth a read, especially if you like betting on the All-Weather! Read HERE>>> 

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Tips Write Ups…

Music Therapist – he looked worth a go here given his recent form and overall profile – two starts back he ran as if needing the race over 6f here, but was up there for a long way having raced wide enough. The yard had a quiet start to the season also, so it could be marked up. The horse just behind him has since gone in off 79 and the winner placed in a C4. He ran 8 days ago at Windsor over 6f, in 1st CP. They seemed to wake him up at bit as he led deep into that race, showing plenty of early zip. The CP remain, they drop him back to a stiff 5f and he drops in class. His nursery win came in a C5 and this is a lesser race than the last two – a median OR today of 71, 76/78 the two before that. Scott has booked Curtis again and they’re 4/11, 7p +23 when teaming up in the last year. Pace – well all three today tick the box of leading/racing prominently and he should be booted out and in a ‘no excuses’ position around here. I’ll trust in Curtis not to go silly but if he’s leading with 1f to go he should take some passing, given his assured stamina.

It is a 3YO handicap so most open to some improvement still but I did think it looked between the top two and the current fav has no course experience.  I thought the selection could easily be 3s in this line up.

Billy Roberts – a more ‘exposed/been there and done it’ sort, in a race where there are not too many lightly raced sorts. I thought he should be fav, 3s or so in this also, and I just couldn’t ignore his ‘hot form’ LTO when 4th. That was a C4 (median OR 76, 70 today) and he drops into a C5 here – but its working out very well for the grade. The winner, Frankelio, is Fav in the next race today. But the 2nd won NTO off 83, the 3rd off 76. The 7th won NTO off 80. The 5th/6th have both placed of 72/79. On paper this race is nowhere near as deep, and Billy ran well for a long way – suggesting he may come on for it. Although a simple repeat of that run could be enough in this. He’s well drawn to attack and if breaking should get the insider rail. There’s some afternoon rain forecast but it should only take any sting out and he won’t mind what it does really. If he does get to the front at any point I don’t think anything in here will get past him, provided he hasn’t done too much. He will keep going.

The rest had enough questions for me, Dancin Boy is only 4 but 1/14 in his career, 1st run here. Although he’s down in class and arrives in form, but I preferred Billy at similar prices. Of the bigger priced ones Casement may go ok but he’s a few questions now – a CD winner though.

Golden Apollo – I eventually got off the fence with him as it would be typical for me to leave him and to be the only Ponte winner from the content. I concluded that there shouldn’t be such a price disparity between him and the Fav. In a ‘normal’ season I wondered whether they’d be aiming him for Ayr again, and getting his mark down. But he has won off higher and this is still a 9k pot to the winner- and there may not be many less competitive this season. He ran really well on his return in The Wokingham and only two of those in front have run since – Gabrial The Wire winning off 93 NTO. As well as his form, and a CD winner also, I was lured in by the fact he should have track position on the fav. Whether he leads i’m not sure – maybe he’ll track Declan Carroll’s horse, and Watchable may blast out for a time – he can leave those two at it, then make his move and get first run on Summerghand, in theory. It may make no difference but the fav has been raised another 4lb ( i despise that for an older handicapper when they’ve not won, and do feel for connections) and could prefer a stronger pace to aim at. 11/10 seemed short but clearly I won’t be shocked if he won, given his last two runs. On known form/current form it looks to be between the top two in the market, if they repeat/build on recent efforts and I thought G A should be closer in price, maybe the 5/2 mark or so.

George Bowen is a lurker given his mark/past form, but the wheels seem to have come off in recent runs and he needs more – but the sort who could pop up at some point this season.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Ponte overnight lurkers. I was too windy to back them and prices have shortened in some cases.
    115 Araifjan
    220 Casement
    250 Royal Big Night
    320 Iconic Choice
    355 George Bowen (inspired me to post, Josh)
    430 Mutanaaseq

    1. No winners but Araifjan was a bit unlucky in 3rd 9/1.
      Then in time order: L, L, 2nd 11/2, 2nd 17/2, 3rd 28/1.
      What might have been, eh?

  2. Just the one winner yesterday.

    On to today
    4:30 Pontefract sheepscar lad
    4:40 Leicester Benin
    7:45 Leicester a star above

    E/w punts
    2:10 Newton abbot for luck
    5:40 Leicester Millicent

    Good luck eveyone

  3. Hey Josh

    I would be very interested in any useful stats or whatever you have for The Bunbury Cup

    Things like whether the winners were off marks higher than they won from before
    had they won in C2
    Ever run in a Pattern race
    Male v Female

    There is chance of a big bet here. Any help much appreciated

    1. Hi Richard,

      Yep I usually dig out some pointers for that one and will do again, mostly likely on ‘Trends Thursday’ which is when I usually look ahead to the weekend action, and that’s arguably the biggest handicap on Sat. Just a shame I can’t be there, beer in hand, to watch it live!
      Those kind of factors get a good going over, but I do only mention pointers that look significant to my eyes. But we shall see what the machine churns out

      Josh

      1. Thanks

        I agree only things with decent level of significance worth using pretty much any time

        Brother lives in East anglia, says there’s loads of rain

        1. Oh yep it’s been damp and Newmarket are forecast bucket loads I think so we shall see what materialises or not. And whether enough to turn it soft.

  4. Adam Wedge has had 8 runners in 7 days with only 1 place, until today when he had 3 firsts and a 2nd out of 5 runners. He does well with handicap chasers (mentioned on RTP I believe) and has 3 tomorrow at Stratford, 2.20pm Court Royale 10/1, 2.50 Peterborough 10/1 & 3.50 Vendredi Trois (FR), same trainers as today. He also has two other rides at Stratford in hurdles.
    GL all

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