Daily Members Post: 06/07/20 (complete)

tips x2 + write up, + quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/32,12p, +10.2, +25.5 BFSP)

None.

The Jumps 

3.30 Uttoxeter 

#1 – Brian Boranha – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) UP 7/1, awful.

#2 – Pickamix – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/WH/BetV) UP 16s, not much better sadly.

As of 8am, that will be it for Jumps pokes, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sire

4.00 Uttox – Building Bridges (10/1< best)

Trainer/Sire

2.45 Ayr – Lion Tower H2 UP

Jim Crowley (any)

7.00 Thirsk – Khayyaal

7.30 Thirsk – Montather

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups

I’m thankful to the racing gods for the stats content (sections 2/3) continuing to tick along and another good day for it more generally but specifically the ‘H‘ qualifiers, adding another +5 points or so, a bit more if you got to work before 9am. Do read the results update post HERE>>> Maybe this subjective tipping malarkey is over-rated but in any case, i’ll soldier on, and have a crack at one of my favourite big summer chases… The Summer Cup…

My lucky pin has found us the winner of this race twice in the last three years and I could do with another one going in…

My shortlist was the two selections, Padleyourowncanoe and Minellacelebration WON 6/1>7/1..

Brian Boranha – I seemingly struggle to get this horse right and I don’t think much of the trainer, although this is probably the best horse he has in training and he’s booked Hughes to get the job done. Decent ground is vital to him I think and as such a few of his runs last season can be ignored. However five starts back he ran ok over 3m here in an ok C2 (certainly ok in the context of this race, one of the lesser renewals on paper) off 133 and is 4lb lower now. He raced in mid division there and hopefully the champion jockey isn’t too cold on him. He stays further than this and has a decent record fresh – winning on his return in May 18 and running ok last season, when the ground went against him. He should be fit, he’s on a winnable mark, the ground has come right, he has course form, stays, Hughes is on and he’s relatively young compared to some of these. He ticks plenty of boxes here and 12s/11s looked a shade overpriced. The one niggle is his running style – were he a prominent racer I’d be happier but i’ve judged his price just allows the chance. And i’ll trust in Hughes.

Pickamix – a bit of a flyer here but 25s did seem a tad insulting to my eyes – he should be in the right place if here to run his race – at his best, when getting decent ground and he’s up for it, he races on the speed and Gavin will hopefully try to be up there, popping away, no excuses. He’s another who needs good ground I think which he didn’t get very often last year and, by Carlie’s own admission, his horses ‘were not right’ last year. He’s 2/4,3p when returning 121-365 days, stays well enough and his mark is now within winning range again, running off 127 here (2/8,5p OR 121-130, 0/4,1p 131+) He ran well to a point in Dec 19 having had a year off. That was at Cheltenham in a Grade 3, disputing the lead at one point before fading 3 out, again on soft (and maybe he wasn’t right, as per the yards issues). I think I fancied him NTO/LTO at Catterick where the ground went, I expected him to make all and he was always behind. That was a flyer at a price also and didn’t end that well! Maybe the yard form/soft ground isn’t an excuse for those last two runs and he’s just a monkey now/has issues, but his form in 2018 was solid enough, especially in the context of this race. All race conditions are perfect, he should be fit, and Gavin rides the course well. If he could get the lead and pop away we could be in business. I thought he was worth chancing at 25s.

Both of those at their best have the form to get competitive here, they have their conditions and given the questions everything has in this, looked worth a go at their prices.

Of the rest…

Padleyourowncanoe – he may well take this – he’s the most lightly raced of these over fences and it’s the ‘decent hncp chase dream team’ in Tizzard/Cobden, but he is inexperienced – and didn’t jump overly well in that 4 runner beginners chase he won. IF he handles the hustle and bustle here and jumps well, he is the most likely winner. I didn’t think 9/2 or so was overly big to find out, but in terms of being ‘unexposed’ over fences, he’s the most interesting.

Minella Celebration – possibly the ‘obvious’ been there and done it one, well found in the market I think. ‘Value’ judgements around this price point are always tricky in a decent field size like this – 6s looked about right to me, given he is now 10 and ran in a Vets chase LTO. He does have a great record fresh and around here, his mark is ok although a question given his highest winning mark has been 135 – and he does also have to prove he fully stays 26f, esp in a race run at a good clip, which this should be. Katy Price is also only 2/98 in the last 365 days – maybe her name sake has taken over the license! This is her best horse though I think and maybe she’s just had a lot of dross to train. Still, for a 6s shot, some questions there I wasn’t sure he should be 4s or so in this and was thus overpriced enough to take the chance.

The rest I was more than happy to leave really – they all have enough questions for me and if one of the 11/12 year olds beats me, so be it.

Bandsman has stamina to prove still and can be ridden patiently, that made 5s short enough for me, despite the fact he still has some upsides as a chaser

I thought, on this ground/CD it may happen a bit too quickly for Neil Mulholland’s pair, for all that last season suggested they could both find a race or two this season. If The Young Master is fit and can hold a position, he could go close- but that’s a big if for me. The Hobbs horse is interesting to a point but he’s a monkey also I think and i’m not sure will be good enough – he usually is ridden cold, which is question also. He needs to step up on some of his form and I wasn’t sure he would. I don’t really want to wade in with a Peter Bowen horse until seeing some signs of life… 10/172, 29p in the last year, 6% sr or so, when they’d usually operate at a 12/14% clip. Maybe they’ve had illness issues also, or just a yard full of old timers/exposed horses, like their two in this. They both have the odd piece of form to compete but I was happy to leave them. I’d like to think Hepijeu isn’t good enough for this race and if Anteros wins, well.

So that’s that, hopefully a couple of live outsiders to keep us entertained.

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. I confess, I backed Pickamix overnight; was a bit underwhelmed by the price but someone had the same idea before me and I had to work around that lump.
    I’ll be interested to read your perspective, Josh.

  2. A small profit on Saturday – two short priced winners, a 10/1 place and 2 losers.

    Four each way punts for Monday:
    1.25 Utt, Le Grand Rocher;
    3.00 Utt, Dell Arca;
    4.00 Utt, Bold Record;
    5.15 Win, Tropics.

    Good luck Martin.

    1. Better than a small loss! Thanks for the comment on yesterday’s post….though not selections the Ascot list idea from the BHA seems ok in getting trainers to identify good horses in their yards…I hope a similar thing for the jumps season is going to bee implemented if the current restrictions on racing are still in place for the autumn…will be worth looking out for if that happens.

  3. still dreaming 🙂
    Flying Pursuit @ 7/1 – 13.40 Ayr
    Three Coins @ 14/1 14.45 Ayr
    Lydiate Lady @ 16/1 15.15 Ayr
    Dell’ Arca @ 11/1 15.00 Uttoxeter
    Black Buble @ 11/2 16.00 Uttoxeter
    Still Believing @ 11/1 16.30 Uttoxeter
    17p ew accum for 1/4 million

    1. a winner and 2 places , a fair profit as for once a mistake went my way backed Three Coins twice my normal £1 ew and £2 win on BF paid 26.82bsp so for once my stupidity made me money 🙂

  4. ON THE BRIDLE
    No bet

    VICTORY
    3.45 Ayr Colony Queen
    14th Feb to 14th March + 38.32 will put these up from today

    NO NAME Do not back
    3.45 Ayr Secretarial
    6.15 Windsor Ghepardo
    6.30 Thirsk Juniors Dream
    This will be the last day that i will put them up too rushed wil record them myself for the rest of this month, too old worked last night and from 7 am till 10.30 am.
    Colin

  5. my Yankee for the day.

    2.45 A Lion Tower
    3.45 A Colony Queen
    4.40 W Mahale
    5.15 W Blue de Vega

    Single
    3.30U Hepijieu ew

    I am backing all Dr R Newlands runners single and doubles ONLY at Uttoxeter.

    Mike

  6. Here goes.

    12:40 Thirsk silbaaq
    2:45 Ayr lion tower
    4:55 Thirsk Lyons lane
    5:15 windsor amplify

    E/w punts
    1:55 uttox robin gold
    3:30 uttox pickamix ( sorry guys )
    4:00 uttox demon d’ annou

    Good luck everyone.

  7. Unfortunately, or, fortunately I`m with Nick, the yard seems to be getting on, as best as they can with the day to day running of the operation, following on from the untimely passing of Mr T`s daughter, anyways, my friend who works for the yard said that it is what she would have wanted and they are all carrying on with the same spit and polish as always. Back to the horse then, he didn`t seem to take to fences as Josh has claimed, but, this is the first sit Mr Cobden has had on him over fences, he is lightly raced and i think after this will be wrapped up in cotton wool till later in the jumps season, or, depending if he likes the summer ground as i fell that is key to this one, it has to rattle a little and he should appreciate this more good ground…

    1. GL Stewart, as always a simple subjective assessment of price! I didn’t think he was overpriced given my niggles, and you two think he is. Which he may well be.
      He is allowed to get better at his fences which he no doubt will at some point. And while Harry is excellent, Robbie Power is no slouch on a chaser! 🙂
      He did jump well on his first chase start, but 4 runners and little pressure- not so good the next time but that could have been due to the soft etc.
      Anyway, he is the most interesting and if the first 1/3 goes well, esp at his fences, everyone else could be in trouble. GL
      Josh
      p.s yep awful what happened to their daughter and hopefully they can all get through it as best as they can. And she was a massive part of the operation as well.

  8. Ascot list runners:
    16.40. Wind. Mahale
    17.30. Thir. Mamba Wamba
    17.45. Wind. Fools Rush In.

    Taken a look at 12.40 Ayr Selected and Captain Magnum set the standard but fancy Dark Zeas and Sibaaq small e/w at bigger prices given the soft going. Gd lck.

    1. Like all e/w shots finished 4th with Sibaaq…but the winner is out of Slade Power so not a surprise…may be useful.

    2. 16.40. W. think the fav will take all the beating but fancy Thank You Next to run a good race.
      17.30. Th. Mamba Wamba should win
      17.45. W. Think Fools Rush In has a genuine chance and at 5/ represents gd value all the best if playing

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