Daily Members Post: 05/07/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Quals, trends races

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(2/31,12p, +12.2, +27.5 BFSP)

3.15 Hayd – Palavacino – 1 point EW 12/1 (1/5, 5p gen)

that’s all for today, as of 10am, write up at bottom of post, including  a mention for Bollin Joan, who’s price for tipping purposes has been ruined by Mr Taylor! 

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.30 Hayd – Nuit St Georges (16/1<) H1 5/2 UP

1.30 Hayd – Oi The Clubb Ois (9/1<) 22/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

2.05 Hayd – Favourite Moon (12/1< guide) 9/4 WON 9/4>7/4 

2.05 Hayd – Jellystone (16/1<) H2 10/1 UP

3.00 Sand – Montatham (10/1< guide) H2 9/4 WON 9/4>6/5 

3.15 Hayd – Babbos Boy (16/1<) 13/2 UP

3.15 Hayd – Dal Horrisgle (12/1< guide) (x3 angles) 

3.15 Hayd – Glencadam Glory (9/1<) 50/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

5.10 Sand – Campari (any) (x2 angles) 9/2 2nd

5.35 Donc – Edmond Dantes (16/1<) H2 9/2 UP

5.35 Donc – Heart Of Soul (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ 2nd 15/2

5.35 Donc – Lord Halifax (14/1< guide) 16/1 UP

5.35 Donc – Mankayan (14/1< guide) 7/1 WON 7/1>13/2 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sire

5.15 Cork – Salsa 33/1 UP

Jim Crowley (any odds)

3.00 Sand – Montatham H2 9/4 WON 9/4>6/5 

4.35 Sand – Alemagna 12/1 UP

5.10 Sand – Eshaasy H3 7/2 WON 7/2> 9/4 

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot Form 

12.30 Hayd – Never In Paris (1st run) 2/1 UP

3.15 Hayd – Ranch Hand (2nd run) 9/2 5th

5.35 Donc – Bollin Joan (1st run) H1 18/1 UP

Losing Tips

4.00 Donc – Count Dorsay (1st run) H1 7/2 UP

5.15 Cork – Salsa (2nd run) 33/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

A reminder to have a flick through the results update if you haven’t already… esp if any interest in how the sections above have been performing… that’s HERE>>> 

Of Note: The ‘section 2& 3 stats qualifiers with a ratings pointer’ (H1/2/3/4) is looking like a great place to start/focus if you were searching for a systematic approach. It may be due a correction to those stats now but plenty of logic for why it may continue, and does help when on days like today when a silly number of qualifiers as per above.

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Trends Races

3.15 Haydock

No real trends of note…

Trainers (to have won race in last 12 years/with runners)

  • The Trader / Hochfeld (trainer race record, 3/29,3p)
  • Palavecino (1/1) H1
  • Frankus (1/7,1p)

3.00 Sand 

Those that ran in a C2 LTO and had 13< career runs… 9/12 winners (9/58 runners, 19p), leaving…

  • Montatham H2
  • Shelir
  • Acquitted

Trainers (to have won race in last 12 years/with runners)

  • Dark Vision (1/23, 4p) H1
  • Montatham (1/6,2p) H2
  • Qaysar (1/4,1p) H3
  • Zwayyan (1/11, 2p)

 

*

Write ups…

Palavecino – one from the trainer race records above, Meehan 1/1 in this race in the last 12 years, his yard are also in cracking form, as is this horse. He’s going for the 4 timer this year and there still looks to be plenty more to come to my eyes. LTO was a career best ‘on the figures’ (RPR/TS) and I suspect the handicapper doesn’t have him just yet. All of his career form to date has a strong look to it, and he’s lightly raced for his age having had a year off. His 6 races to date have produced 32 subsequent winners since, excluding his four wins. Those first two runs, and his breeding, would give hope that some cut is fine, although I wouldn’t mind it drying out a bit for him. Still, he’s 12s here, races prominently and gallops. He is a bit of a character I gather but if he runs his race (and can get a possy from that draw) i’d be disappointed if he isn’t in there pitching. Hopefully he doesn’t have to lead – that’s a niggle, as there’s enough pace on paper, but if he could get out and track any pace, then pounce, that would be perfect.

He looked overpriced here and should be 8s or so to my eyes based on his profile. He’s also clear top rated on HRB by some way, which is always a positive.

I’ve decided to have a run at just sticking to those with a H next to their name as a way in /more generally, for tipping purposes and we shall see how that goes. Although no doubt the odd exception, esp big races/silly prices.

I had a good look through everything else above and for tipping purposes with a H, but nothing else at the prices stood out, although with 6 ‘qualifiers’ for that emerging strategy from sections 2/3, hopefully a few go in.

Bollin Joan… I was very close to tipping her at 18s/20s each-way , 1/4, 4p… and then Hugh Taylor got there first and removed all value – she’s now 10s or so generally, which on her profile/form is probably around what she should be – she is open to attack from something with more in hand/progressive legs but she’s consistent, is on an ‘ok’ mark with the claim, 2/2 at the track, stays well, and that last race is working out well. She’ll have needed the run also. This felt an open race (Edmond Dantes now out to 5s and he should run well). It will pleasing for my ‘hot form’ eyes and that section of the daily content if she goes in (I added her and a few others to my tracker last week, and will mention some of them in a post this week) but also bloody frustrating tipping wise. I know how this will end. 🙂 Although the last time Hugh agreed with me they ran a shocker. I’d expected her to be knocking on the door of the top four and her attitude may well see her home in front. 

GL

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. ON THE BRIDLE

    No bet July – 4

    No name paper trade only I am not betting them, all my methods are for the long term once proven.
    3.00 Sandown Mutasaamy 2nd string runner different trainers, going up 2 grades so needs to improve, a 4yo and that is possible we shall see, must stress i am not backing it.
    Colin

  2. Doncaster 15:25 Spirit in the Sky
    Doncaster 17:35 Motivate Me
    Haydock 13:30 Contrebasse
    Haydock 15:15 Frankuus
    Sandown 13:15 Macho Pride

  3. My system portfolio usually throws up around 5 or 6 selections a day and usually fewer on a Sunday, today it’s gone nuts and thrown up 18, this is gonna be some ride today. I’m not gonna bottle it and reduce the stakes though, hold on tight 🙂

  4. in notes from yesterday iv just been thinking is it ever a credible point to look at a front runner winning a race
    And I think when you’ve spent quite a lot of time on a race and still can’t nail down a confident selection then maybe it does, along with a few other things
    it’s people who are able to think outside the box that will of possibly landed on yesterday’s winner and it doesn’t come naturally to me I don’t think

    1. Hi Ryan
      after yestedays race had a look its previous win 7 days earlier made all and won by 9 lengths, very easily big jump in class, my view of the jockeys in the Derby was that non of them were confident that their horse would stay in a true run race, and in the end non of them made much ground on the winner who should have been tireing so for me non of them stayed the distance on the day.
      Colin

      1. yep – i mean pace should always be an important factor and from various pace maps etc it was obvious that he would be one of the ones up there (Oisin predicted pre race he may get a freebie, so they’d all have known that was possible) – maybe hard to predict he would get quite a freebie on the front end, but it’s a fascinating race to ponder, tactics wise.

        The winner got a cracking ride, he’s a Galileo, trained by a genius, ridden by a regular homework rider – and all of AOBs will have great clocks in their head, they have to to work there and he’ll train with sectionals etc – and the horse’s dam was 2nd in an Oaks. So, no shock in hindsight, and as Colin says that win LTO was impressive, the CP/positive ride transforming him.

        It did feel a weak/open renewal pre race and a few judges did land on the winner – indeed two days ago I said to Martin in the comments I probably won’t have a strong view (should have stuck with that!!) and that it may pay to throw some change at AOBs outsiders. Doh. That’s never a bad ‘strategy’ in a Derby, for entertainment.

        On reflection and chatting with a few on the tweet machine, I now dont think that result could have been changed, given the horses involved/conditons and what transpired.

        Colin is spot on that plenty in behind were riding their horse to get home/they had niggles. The winning jockey rode even fractions and got it spot on – after a few furlongs it was game over given the position of everyone else, would have been impossible to get that distance back.

        It needed the horses in 2nd and 3rd (Tom/William) to chase him hard, and maybe duff him up – BUT, that would have compromised both their horses and they’d have then fallen out the back of the TV I suspect, rather than cling onto a place as they did. English King dived to his left, poor draw, and was stuck in a pocket. Kameko didn’t stay, alas. Silly boy.

        It’s not as if anything pounced out of the back, finished fast and thus got a shocking ride. Although the energy they’d have had to use to close would have impacted late.

        But, given how it transpired, when you think about each horse, a jockey chasing that leader may have impacted their chance – I think they must have all been conscious of that – and then sadly by halfway it’s game over, and you can only hope the leader stops/isn’t good enough to keep going.
        Maybe, just maybe, he is the best 1m4f horse in that race! As simple as that.

        Much to ponder, but fascinating stuff to me. Trying to work out whether that result, once that horse led, cold have ever been different – and i’m not sure it could have been. And thus, more of us should have predicted it!! Next time. 🙂

        1. Josh
          Serpentine could well prove a worthy winner, if by any chance it had an interupted training schedule which it may have for it ran on 12th June and the 27th June one week before the Derby which is very rare, then my feeling it could well have been close to favourite on the day, Aidan must think highly of it for he was pushing it with 2 runs in 22 days prior to the Derby not the norm.
          May get a decent price for its next run for many will believe it was a fluke and bad riding by Dettori and Moore etc, lets hope so.
          Colin.

          1. The winner could be decent but a few of those he beat will beat him next time I think.

            jockeys of this calibre should be able to judge pace much better. I appreciate the comments re nursing them to get the distance of the race but it was never going to be a slowly run race. Therefore you need to be sitting off the pace, marking time as you go round to see where things are at. A poor effort by all apart from the jockey on the winner.

            PS. Forget about Mogul being a top horse. PPS. English King will beat this lot when they next meet. Staying on well.

          2. Racing and opinions, Oisen Murphy stated on camera that Kameko did not stay, yet he finished in front of English King who had won a race of 1 mile 4 furlongs so EK not good enough, Serpentine will be a good winner of the Derby and by the end of the season will prove it provided he stays fit and healthy.
            Jason Weaver summed it up Serpentime lot of improvement to come after seeing him in the parade ring looked raw, and his review of the race outstanding well worth listening to on itv.
            Colin

          3. English King was finishing too late. The result and placings counts for little in my opinion. He would have passed Kameko in another 25 yards. Poor ride from Frankie. I will eat my sombrero if English King does not beat this lot over one mile four furlongs when they next meet.

            I would also not get too excited about the Eclipse at Sandown. A bit of a bunch finish and that seldom works out well.

        2. To be fair Josh I did see your tweet before the race saying if AOB doesn’t send something forward the race could be a crawl so you were thereabouts with saying it was open to that kind of a race

          I think it can happen easier than we think a horse stealing a lead like that especially round a bend, he seems to increase his lead loads round the bend then into the home straight you realise how big the gap actually is!!

          One thing il never do again is write off other O’Brien runners. I think if he doesn’t have an absolute stand out single horse then they’re all there to have a go. That interview with Mcnamara was brilliant yesterday you get some decent interviews but that one he explained how Aidan had said to him he could possibly win the race or at least have a right good go
          I passed over the horse wen going through the card especially with it having run less than a week before

  5. Funny old day yester day bit onwards and upwards

    My speed horses for Sunday
    12:30 haydock magical journey
    2:50 Doncaster society lion
    3:00 sandown montatham
    3:35 sandown Enable

    Others.
    2:40 haydock cabaletta behind Manuela du Vega the favourite on speed but I think he will do better on the ground plus trainer in good form

    3:15 haydock ranch hand again ground swaying my selection although this did come out top speed not as confident on this one.

    E/w punts
    1:15 tangfantic
    1:30 haydock contrebasse (sorry nick) !
    5:35 Doncaster heart and soul

    Good luck everyone

  6. Ascot list runners:

    12.00. Hayd. Andronicus Beau
    13.15 Sand. Gussy Mac/International Dream/Macho Pride/Significantly.

    Gd lck today.

      1. Thanks ….pity they were not selections! always the way, just like paper trading…..they go in when you don’t pick or back ’em! but good for the Ascot list notion…

  7. Big priced madness. some sillier than others 🙂
    H3-15. Scarlet Dragon 16-1
    S1-50. Lady In France 66-1
    S3-35. Bangkok 100-1
    D2-50. Mischief Star 18-1, Bravo Faisal 40-1
    D4-00. Broken Spear 14-1, Powerallied 40-1
    D4-30. Newmarket Warrior 33-1
    D5-35. Bollin Joan 10-1, Sashenka 16-1

  8. Thanks to Vindolanda I now have £25 going on to Scarlet dragon and Indianapolis in the 3:15 🙂
    Not bad for a £1 e/w double.

    1. Just thought I’d play around with change on big priced heavy ground winners at Haydock today after reading the about going kerfuffle there.
      I backed Archers Dream for £1 e/w too but sadly didn’t confirm the bet hahaha.

  9. still dreaming 🙂
    Flying Pursuit @ 7/1 – 13.40 Ayr
    Three Coins @ 14/1 14.45 Ayr
    Lydiate Lady @ 16/1 15.15 Ayr
    Dell’ Arca @ 9/1 15.00 Uttoxeter
    Black Buble @ 11/2 16.00 Uttoxeter
    Still Believing @ 10/1 16.30 Uttoxeter
    17p ew accum for 1/4 million

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