The Flat 2020: June

Intro

What follows is a results update for the first month of the new Flat season. I spent plenty of lock-down pondering the blog, my approach and some of the content, conscious that plenty needed to change/improve. I’ve taken a different approach to some of my stats work/research and, as per below, the early signs are promising. My hope is that various elements of the daily output will be profitable as ‘systems’ or ‘strategies’, but as always I want to create content and an environment that is useful, enjoyable and helps you find more of your own winners. And indeed helps me tip some more! (more on that below also) 

A reminder that you can find an explanation to the daily blog content HERE>>>

(that link can also be found in each daily post)

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1st Month Results (June)

You can find a full spreadsheet HERE>>>

(Click the green link, RTP June 2020, and it should download)

You can click through the tabs along the bottom to look at various results.

Of note…

I’m happy enough with those, especially the stats content (Trainer Profiles/Other Micro Angles)

In terms of the ‘Horses To Follow’ – while I may hope that they work as a ‘strategy’ (ie backing for 3 runs/stop at a winner) their primary role is as a ‘way in’ and ‘context’. I may well focus plenty more on ‘Hot Form’, with any ‘eye-catchers’ stemming just from looking at sectional times on Geegeez. I’ve another idea, which is to use Stewards Reports to help identify any that maybe could have finished closer/had an excuse. But i’ve yet to dabble in those, all accessible the next day from the BHA site.

As I keep trying to remind myself, less can be more! Quality over quantity.

Horse Race Base Ratings

These results are detailed in the spreadsheets also but of most excitement currently, are how the Horse Race Base Top Rated (H1) and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th rated (H2/H3/H4) are performing. Remember, from ‘all’ flat handicaps, H1 horses win 20% of races and the top 4 win 62% of races.

So, looking at the stats qualifiers…

Trainer Profiles & Other Micro Angles 

• H1: 4/10, 6p, +5.87, +8.19 BFSP
• H2/3/4: 9/36, 20p, +16.25, +14.83 BFSP

For a total of… 46 bets / 13 wins / 26p / +22.12 (8am odds/non bog) / +23 BFSP

IF they could repeat that every 50 ‘qualifiers’ or so, that would be very welcome! There’s logic for why they might, given they use HRB ratings which are a ‘constant’ that provide some info for how good the horse/connections may be in the context of today’s race/opposition – but we are talking small numbers for now.

But, if you wanted to focus in on the stats content even more, just looking at those with a H1, H2, H3 , H4 next to their name may be a good idea.

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Did Not Qualify 

Those stats above only include those that ‘qualified’ on morning prices – you’ll know that some of my stats angles have ‘odds caps’, due to the historical research.

Well, those that were above said odds caps have had a solid enough June, as you can see from the spreadsheet…

16 ‘non qualifiers on price’ / 3 wins / 7 w|p / +40 / +40.53 BFSP

Those that had a H next to their name … 1/4, 3p, +13, +18.74 BFSP

So, while I think long term the DNQs may be a bumpy ride, as the historical research would suggest, time will tell. Certainly it could make sense to focus more on those that have a Horse Race Base top 4 rating.

Which means that any stats horse with a H1/2/3/4 next to their name, any odds, in June…

50 bets / 14 wins / 29 w|p / +35 (8am odds/non bog) / +41.74 BFSP 

We can all dream of results such as that repeating. Fingers crossed.

So, that’s that, to absorb and ponder as you please. Maybe its a season where the market isn’t a useful guide, or wasn’t in the early weeks of the season.

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My Tipping

Not much to say on this as yet. Again all results recorded in the spreadsheet to advised price (non bog) and BFSP. I’m also recording them all to 1 point EW so I can see how that approach does.

Obviously the profit/ROI is looking good but the 33/1 win of Scarlet Dragon is papering over a few cracks and I need to improve.

There is a chance one day I draft in a ‘tipster’ in for any tipping content, leaving me to focus on everything else. That’s been on my mind for 2 years and continues to be so – or I just try and focus on the big races/Festivals etc. Some pondering on that front.  But I’m happy with how the core stats content is working, for now, and hopefully it can continue.

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Josh