Daily Members Post: 04/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/31,12p, +12.2, +27.5 BFSP)

#1 – 3.00 Epsom – Breath Caught – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen)  2nd, painful

#2 – 4.55 Epsom – Kameko – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP 3/1, mediocre ride

#3 – 5.30 Epsom – Straight Right – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) Up 7/1 , awful

 

That’s all for today, x3 pokes, as of 08.57, notes at bottom of the post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.00 Epsom – Desert Icon (7/1< guide)  H1

4.25 Hayd – Louganini (any) 4/1 WON 4/1 > 5/2 

7.55 Yarm – Harlow (9/1<) 5/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

3.40 Epsom – Love 5/4 WON 5/4 > 11/10 

Jim Crowley 

2.25 Epsom – Daarik 7/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catcher 

3.00 Epsom – Breath Caught (1st run) 14/1 2nd

 

5.Other/Updates

Of possible interest…

Always Back Winners1 month trialmore info HERE>>>

A decent ‘horses to follow’ list, with notes & alerts, from Brett Love (the Betting School gang), MORE HERE>>> 

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PLEASE READ : JUNE RESULTS UPDATE... new post HERE>>>

…worth a read, esp the stats quals with a HRB rating… another winner on Friday, 7s 8am, much bigger from 9am-11am… taking ALL Sections 2 & 3 handicap stats qualifiers, regardless of price, that had a H1/H2/H3/H4 next to their name to… 51 bets / 15 wins / 30 w|p / +42 points (8am odds/not bog) 

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Epsom Stats Pointers/’Quals’

From the report HERE>>>

(HRB ratings for handicaps only, as added info) 

Dubawi (10/1< guide)

3.00 – Ironclad

4.15 – Fooraat / Onassis 

Trainer/Jockey Combos 

3.40 – Gold Wand / Frankly Darling 

4.15 – Love And Thunder 

Trainers

1.50 – Mutazawwed (10/1<) 

Jockeys 

2.25 – Shine So Bright (9/1<) 

3.00 – Johnny Drama (9/1<) 

4.55 – Mythical (12/1< guide) 

5.35 – Straight Right (9/1<) / Markazi (12/1< guide) 

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3.00 Epsom 

‘Trends’ 

(from this post HERE>>>)

If I look at those with 1-6 runs over the distance and not being the youngest horse in the race, in the last 12 renewals (135 runners) that leaves 7/23 runners, 12p, +71 BFSP… obviously it’s likely to miss the winner but still, those two stats leave four…

  • Caradoc H4
  • Johnny Drama
  • Breath Caught
  • Data Protection

5 year-olds do best in this also, and they all tick that box.

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Johnny Drama (trainer race record 1/6,2p)
  • Breath Caught (1/2,2p)

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Tips write ups…

Breath Caught – he hits a few pointers above and caught my eye LTO , running well for a long way but very much as if it was needed. That was his first run back with Beckett having lost his way in the interim, in part I think due to the ground. He’s run plenty on GF but is now 0/9, 2p when it’s fast, 2/5,3p on Good – Good to Soft. He looks to be on a winnable mark and he ticks a few boxes above, as a ‘way in’, inc the limited ‘trends’. Beckett is 1/2,2p in the race and its not impossible this has been a plan. He’s versatile tactics wise, Harry B knows him and he rides the track very well. Being drawn wider over this CD is no bad thing either. Provided he doesn’t get stuck wide I thought 14s looks a few points too big.

The dangers… I won’t be shocked if any of the top 3 win but I didn’t think they were overpriced to do so. Ironclad should be better than 86 this season esp given his G1 breeding, on both sides of his page. This hasn’t been the plan, withdrawn from an earlier engagement due to fast ground, and his trainer has a niggle about whether he’ll handle the track. I get the impression he’s fit though and if he does handle it, could bolt up. 7/2 is short to find out I thought, esp from stall 2 where he could get caught in a pocket up the straight. As is 5s for Caradoc who has to prove he’s progressed, if 5lb above his last win (but decent form) and has race fitness to prove. Johnny Drama would be annoying as he hits a few pointers also, but he was 11/2 gen and that didn’t seem overly big to me.

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Kameko – ah, a tip in The Derby, which i’ll no doubt regret. All of the ‘judges’ seem adamant that he won’t stay and i’m not sure he comes out that great on dosage either – but he’s the best horse in the race, has the best form, a significant class edge and I think i’m taking 5s to find out. As if he does stay (a big IF i know) he’d win this for me, based on the existing evidence. There’s also not loads of pace on paper – maybe he needs a stronger pace to settle, but it may not be a searching gallop. AOB may ensure it is though. He stayed 8f well at Newcastle as a 2 year old which takes some doing and was doing all his best work late in the Guineas. I thought he was worth chancing but it is an educated guessers race, and maybe more guessing than in many.

Of the rest… plenty think Mohican Heights could run a big race at 16s and I suppose Russian Emperor shapes like a stayer in the making. Throwing change at AObs biggies in this race can work out ok, over time, but he does seem to be throwing more hopeful darts this year. We shall see, but you may not need to ‘truly’ stay this year, as without the 2000G winner this could be a Group 2 or 3.

 

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Straight Right – 12s looked worth chancing in this 0-95 and given most of the form on show it does look like a class 3. He’s yet to win on turf but I think there’s plenty of excuses, mainly softer going, but he’s some solid form to his name, inc at Glorious Goodwood was back in 2017 over 7f, in a better handicap than this – he finished 3rd there, running on, off 103 (95 today) on Good, drawn wide, held up – decent. A run to suggest Good ground/turf is no problem. Esp in the context of his price. 3 starts back in Feb he may well have won at Newcastle off 98 had he a clear run. He returned at Ascot in a much deeper handicap than this and ran well enough up the middle, again on ground that was too soft for him. SDS rides the 7f here pretty well, 16/50, 25p +24 SP since the start of 2009, 11/33, 16p in the last 5 years. I’ll trust in him to get this right. Hopefully he starts well and can race mid division. There’s some pace on paper. He can then pull out up the straight and make his challenge.

Of the rest… Hateya may well have been laid out for this given his close 2nd in this last year off 1lb lower. I didn’t think that was a great C2 for the money but he does well at this CD and may not be too far away. The rest have plenty of questions to answer also.

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So, that’s all for today. GL with any bets.

Josh

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

40 Comments

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  • Josh, I posted this here so it didn’t get lost in all the comments for Friday.
    Following on from your note concerning HRB ratings possibly updating in the morning I can confirm they do.
    I rounded the figures down to integers as decimals in the ratings are pointless and from the list of 430 runners 66 of them changed by 1, 2 runners changed by 2 and 1 runner changed by 115 which was an unraced 2yo in an auction maiden race.
    So I would say overall it probably doesn’t make any difference really but I guess you could check if the figures between 4th and 5th rated were very close.
    This is based on one day only but I can’t see that there would be any significant difference over time.
    If there was an over night going change that may swing it slightly more. I don’t think there are many overnight jockey changes to make a difference either but I could be wrong.
    I mean what else can have a significant affect on the ratings over night? There clearly needs to be that cut off time when you need to put the qualifiers on the blog right? Waiting for all the results feeds to update trainer form and what ever else isn’t really worth the effort is it?

    Chris Albin 03/07/20 5:34 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris,

      Thanks for posting… I was pondering because I’ve assumed that the research i’ve done on how successful they are , generally in all handicaps using the ‘ratings test’ in V4 building, is based on when they’ve settled etc but i suppose some of them may keep changing up to race time depending on the factors…. I doubt long term it makes much difference, but certainly Mon-Friday it doesn’t hurt me to check around the time I add the prices, 8am or so. I won’t be ‘removing’ any Hs, just a case of whether any creep into top 4 etc. Obviously it isn’t practical or desirable to be updating after that – but i’d just noted a few changes so thought i’d mention it.
      Josh

      Josh 03/07/20 5:44 PM Reply


  • Looks like I’m first up.

    Derby selections

    Russian emperor
    Emissary e/w

    warren Bottomley 03/07/20 9:34 PM Reply


  • I made the mistake of tipping at Haydock on Thursday!!! Another poor effort there, 0/3. I will definitely be tipping at that course again. A 6/4 winner in Ireland reduced the loss.
    On to Saturday – Three each way picks at Epsom:
    3.00, Tinandale;
    4.55, Pyledriver;
    5.35, Corazon Espinado. I think that if he stays OK in The Derby, Kameko wins.

    Two win bets:
    6.05 Bel, Tullybeg;
    7.25 Yar, Tsar.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 03/07/20 9:35 PM Reply


    • Martin
      agree do not enjoy Hadock always over watering, Chepstow and Yarmouth what a dreadful days racing today from Yarmouth along with Stratford which like Haydock always over waters and this as gone on for years.
      Millwall had a good win last night
      Colin

      cleafe 04/07/20 8:40 AM Reply


      • Any win is a good win in Millwall’s world Colin.

        Derby in a derby this lunchtime! Flakey Forest – they still live on winning the European Cup.

        Martin Colwell 04/07/20 9:45 AM Reply


  • Had a placed horse at 25/1 which went out to 33/1 but Betfair sports book only paid at 25s saying they only pay BOG on winners? I know Betway pay BOG on EW bets, did anybody else know Betfair had this ruling?

    Danny Binks 03/07/20 10:12 PM Reply


  • 3.00 Epsom Johnny Drama 8/1 e/w – unlucky a few times, I think this race will suit him well GL

    James Barker 03/07/20 10:46 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners:
    13.30. Haydock Golden Melody
    13.50. Epsom Modern News/Mutazawwed/Inhaler
    16.55. Yarm. Ventura Tormenta.
    17.10. Chelm. Al Watan/Steely Queen

    I posted a list of what I considered to be good races at Ascot, having run below RP median i.e faster than average so here are those runners so you can judge for yourselves if they are worth backing.

    14.25 Epsom Daarik/Jacks Point ran in the Buckingham Palace Hdcp which I had as run in 1.61 secs below RP median. Also running is Vale Of Kent which ran in the the Royal Hunt Hdcp which was 1.88 below RP median but ran “flat” next time out at Newmkt.

    14.40. Haydock Shelir which was 5th in Buck. Palace (1.61 secs below RP,median). The market suggests this has a chance.

    15.00. Epsom Wargrave ran in the Royal Hunt (1.88 secs below RP median)

    17.35. Epsom Straight Right ran in Buck Palace (1.61 below RP median).

    Non of these are selections as I have not put them up as such but hopefully will help in your deliberations. The figures are mine I use to assess the quality of a race and are part of the speed figure approach I use to assess horses. Hope the info is of use. All the best.

    silver 03/07/20 11:56 PM Reply


    • Time correction Yarmouth, should read 18.55 NOT 16.55

      silver 04/07/20 10:21 AM Reply


      • Selections:
        13.50 Epsom. Mutazawwed
        14.25 Epsom Safe Voyage
        15.00 Epsom Data Protection/ Plantadream e/w.

        I have had a look at the Ascot runner races and the only on I will be backing is the selection above. As expected the 13.50 Ascot is very competitive and Inhaler and Modern News in with a shout. Even Calcutta Cup is in with a shout but have gone for Mutazawwed.

        13.30. Haydock too much guesswork involved and not enough runners for any value.

        17.10. Chelms. Again no bet for me as too much guesswork involved and think that Recovery Run is the likely winner but no bet for me.

        18.55. Yarmouth. Ventura Tormenta I think will win but again cannot back at the price.

        Good luck with whatever you back today.

        silver 04/07/20 11:39 AM Reply


  • with rain forecast at Epsom on and off all night and morning i ran some races through with gd/sft as the going.
    3-00. left with Data Protection, Breath Caught and the rag Dolphin Vista the only horse in the race to have won a C1 and has 2 wins at C2.
    3-40. Frankly Darling came out tops over Love with another longshot Bharani Star coming out quite well despite being upped in class.
    4-15. Rose Of Kildare would be tops if handling the longer trip.
    4-55. Pyledriver came out quite a way in front with a Max Vega given a slight hope if handling the trip.
    5-35. with Buridan a n/r Muntadab looks good with Corazon Espinado and Dirty Rascal the next best.
    maybe a pointless exercise but if the going is gd/sft might be a few pointers in there.

    martin whittle 04/07/20 2:49 AM Reply


    • Onassis won on G/S H2 8f race at Ascot .Tomorrow at 4.15 sire Dubawi
      Very much overpriced currently 18s on exchange

      Pab 04/07/20 3:13 AM Reply


  • 20-1 with Bet365 Pab.

    Pat Reilly 04/07/20 7:33 AM Reply


  • Had a look at all horses in SECTION 1 above and used my dodgy home made speed ratings on them. Results below.

    Only one hit the top spot foorat 4:15 Epsom.

    Of the others

    Epsom
    2:25 daarik
    3:40 love
    4:15 love and thunder

    Yarmouth
    7:55 harlow
    All hit second top rated.

    And

    Epsom
    1:50 mutazawwed

    Haydock
    4:25 louganini
    Hit 3rd top rated.

    These are not tips just my personal opinion on the horses in section one.
    Good luck everyone.

    warren Bottomley 04/07/20 8:07 AM Reply


  • Love and Thunder Epsom 16:15
    Kameko Epsom 16:55
    Viola Yarmouth 17:55

    NickM 04/07/20 9:38 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE
    No bet

    NO NAME METHOD
    Please do not back them for i am not backing them yet, just paper trade and record them
    7.10 Chelmsford Sepahi
    8.25 Yarmouth Herringswell

    What a dreadful days racing Haydock normal SOFT probably heavy by the time clerk of the course waters
    Yarmouth where are the runners well supported by Newmarket trainers tonight! let the sunshine lets have proper flat racing ground.
    Colin

    cleafe 04/07/20 9:39 AM Reply


    • Yep…have given Haydock the swerve precisely for your reasons…also getting close again to too many cards on Saturdays. Al the best today Colin

      silver 04/07/20 11:43 AM Reply


    • All with chances i will give a try to Sepahi nice price

      Pab 04/07/20 3:53 PM Reply


  • Write ups maybe later

    15:00 Epsom
    JOHNNY DRAMA 1pt win 11/2 gen
    TINANDALI 1pt win 11/1 gen

    16:55 Epsom
    RUSSIAN EMPEROR 1pt win 5/1 gen
    MOGUL 1pt win 6/1 gen

    17:35 Epsom
    MARKAZI 1pt win 12/1 gen
    REPUTATION 1pt win 11/1 gen

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.
    What did I miss in the chat btw, just started reading over last few days and Nick is back, but, what the heck went on with Colin and Josh?? Anyways, good luck comrades!!

    Stewart 04/07/20 9:40 AM Reply


  • Haha!

    Dunno if I’m just learning from the maestro or if it’s coincidence but my only bets today are:

    15.00 epsom: Breathe caught 25/1, 5 places (R4 to follow), Johnny Drama 14/1, 5 places (R4)

    have done Max Stakes x 25% ew (50% total) and 10% ew (20% total) respectively

    For Sunday I have a VERY rare Maximum WIN bet on Subjectivist for Mark Johnston. He’s the proverbial Group horse in a handicap, got 7/1

    Richard 04/07/20 10:31 AM Reply


    • I’m not sure who this maestro is you talk of!!
      Fingers crossed those two run well. I have put some change on Johnny given the trends/trainer boxes he ticks and SDS, can see why lured in at 14s, if he were 8s/10s when I got to him I may have gone for two in it. Although I also thought something may be better treated but he hasn’t had much racing.
      I’ll take Breath Caught dotting up but if not you can have Johnny!
      GL Josh

      Josh 04/07/20 10:44 AM Reply


      • Maestro

        I want BREATH CAUGHT that’s got 2.5 the stake as Johnny Drama.

        I really had to give myself a talking to in order to bet Johnny for today.

        Richard 04/07/20 10:49 AM Reply


  • my bets today

    The Derby
    Russian emperor
    Emissary e/w

    The oaks
    Ennistymon

    Everything else
    Speed rated horse
    4:15 Epsom foorat

    2:25 Epson daarik

    E/w
    2:40 haydock mustarrid
    5:40 Chelmsford Mayson mount

    Good luck everyone today.

    warren Bottomley 04/07/20 11:37 AM Reply


  • Having taken a look at the Derby for a bit of fun this is not a tip, Mogul is the one for me even though i will not back it.
    Mogul should improve rapidly and the press said its last run at Royal Ascot was disappointing, however Aidan had not done enough work with him, doubt that will be the case today should see a different horse today. Kameko will not stay in my view but am wrong on many occassions.

    Why is Aidan O’Brian the only Irish trainer to have runners in the UK, did he have all his horses stabled over here before lockdown?
    Colin

    cleafe 04/07/20 11:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin
      Jessica Harrington has had runners also.

      Jim 04/07/20 12:12 PM Reply


    • He flies them in colin.

      Paul Tomkinson 04/07/20 3:26 PM Reply


  • Iv give up with trying to find a winner of the Derby
    iv watched Kamekos guineas win and it’s too much of a niggle that even tho he’s ran very well in that travelling though a bit of trouble but when he is at the front he doesn’t seem to look like he’s got loads left hitting the line
    And I don’t think English King will win as I’d think Frankie would always want to be sat handy, but to do so he’s gun have to use up a lot and then fade in the last F. Never know tho with some luck he could get out easily
    Find it so hard this it’s a completely different test to Ascot where a lot of the field is coming from
    iv backed Max Vega ew as liked the win at Newmarket end of last season where travelled really strong and quickened away at 1m2f
    Had a prep early in June so hopefully gets up there

    Ryan Mercer 04/07/20 1:05 PM Reply


  • There is Luna Wish 7.40 chelm 14/1 5 runs two places two wins at Chelm
    On winning mark together with jock 5 off
    Hateya for me Epsom and Johny Drama

    Pab 04/07/20 2:08 PM Reply


    • I will give a chance to Rose Of Kildare cause of speed

      Pab 04/07/20 2:17 PM Reply


  • UGH!!!

    Puking, 25/1 beaten by a rag. $!£$%)&^

    Richard 04/07/20 3:10 PM Reply


    • The great game. That was so painful but no excuse. He bustled him out, got a good possy, got after him as soon as straightened up/he could,,. Sadly one that just kept goin. A shame he didn’t fold. A good bet but alas. That’s racing. Fine margins.

      Josh 04/07/20 3:18 PM Reply


  • 4.55 Epsom Mohican Heights 20/1

    Gina Collins 04/07/20 3:42 PM Reply


  • So who got that tricast !!!

    warren Bottomley 04/07/20 5:04 PM Reply


    • Even if they did, too stunned to comment!!! Just checked the time and Racing Post have it run 0.07 seconds fast so no fluke…just makes a mockery of looking at form books to try and find winners….will need to get a better pin!

      silver 04/07/20 5:52 PM Reply


      • You are not having mine!
        Colin

        cleafe 04/07/20 6:08 PM Reply


        • Can I??? 🙂 🙂

          Josh 04/07/20 6:25 PM Reply


        • Ha!Ha!

          silver 04/07/20 6:29 PM Reply


  • Terrible judgements from the jocks in behind.

    Mark Curtis 04/07/20 7:40 PM Reply


    • morning mc
      just another superb training performance by a trainer that just covers every scenario of every race .. as long as he wins he doesn’t mind by which horse or with which jockey … just as long as he wins ! 🙂
      Master tactician ….. the butter wouldn’t melt assasin ! Just incredible set up ! 🙂
      Yours Lord GB
      But yes .. surely Ryan new that Serpentine stayed all day and would grind it out given a soft lead !! ?? i think he was just worrying about frankie and forgot about the rest ! ..seeree EERIOT !!!
      LATERZ FROM LGB

      GEORGE B 05/07/20 9:19 AM Reply


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