1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/31,12p, +12.2, +27.5 BFSP)

#1 – 3.00 Epsom – Breath Caught – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen)  2nd, painful

#2 – 4.55 Epsom – Kameko – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP 3/1, mediocre ride

#3 – 5.30 Epsom – Straight Right – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) Up 7/1 , awful

 

That’s all for today, x3 pokes, as of 08.57, notes at bottom of the post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.00 Epsom – Desert Icon (7/1< guide)  H1

4.25 Hayd – Louganini (any) 4/1 WON 4/1 > 5/2 

7.55 Yarm – Harlow (9/1<) 5/2

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

3.40 Epsom – Love 5/4 WON 5/4 > 11/10 

Jim Crowley 

2.25 Epsom – Daarik 7/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catcher 

3.00 Epsom – Breath Caught (1st run) 14/1 2nd

 

5.Other/Updates

Of possible interest…

Always Back Winners – 1 month trial– more info HERE>>>

A decent ‘horses to follow’ list, with notes & alerts, from Brett Love (the Betting School gang), MORE HERE>>> 

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PLEASE READ : JUNE RESULTS UPDATE... new post HERE>>>

…worth a read, esp the stats quals with a HRB rating… another winner on Friday, 7s 8am, much bigger from 9am-11am… taking ALL Sections 2 & 3 handicap stats qualifiers, regardless of price, that had a H1/H2/H3/H4 next to their name to… 51 bets / 15 wins / 30 w|p / +42 points (8am odds/not bog) 

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Epsom Stats Pointers/’Quals’

From the report HERE>>>

(HRB ratings for handicaps only, as added info) 

Dubawi (10/1< guide)

3.00 – Ironclad

4.15 – Fooraat / Onassis 

Trainer/Jockey Combos 

3.40 – Gold Wand / Frankly Darling 

4.15 – Love And Thunder 

Trainers

1.50 – Mutazawwed (10/1<) 

Jockeys 

2.25 – Shine So Bright (9/1<) 

3.00 – Johnny Drama (9/1<) 

4.55 – Mythical (12/1< guide) 

5.35 – Straight Right (9/1<) / Markazi (12/1< guide) 

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3.00 Epsom 

‘Trends’ 

(from this post HERE>>>)

If I look at those with 1-6 runs over the distance and not being the youngest horse in the race, in the last 12 renewals (135 runners) that leaves 7/23 runners, 12p, +71 BFSP… obviously it’s likely to miss the winner but still, those two stats leave four…

• Caradoc H4
• Johnny Drama
• Breath Caught
• Data Protection

5 year-olds do best in this also, and they all tick that box.

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

• Johnny Drama (trainer race record 1/6,2p)
• Breath Caught (1/2,2p)

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Tips write ups…

Breath Caught – he hits a few pointers above and caught my eye LTO , running well for a long way but very much as if it was needed. That was his first run back with Beckett having lost his way in the interim, in part I think due to the ground. He’s run plenty on GF but is now 0/9, 2p when it’s fast, 2/5,3p on Good – Good to Soft. He looks to be on a winnable mark and he ticks a few boxes above, as a ‘way in’, inc the limited ‘trends’. Beckett is 1/2,2p in the race and its not impossible this has been a plan. He’s versatile tactics wise, Harry B knows him and he rides the track very well. Being drawn wider over this CD is no bad thing either. Provided he doesn’t get stuck wide I thought 14s looks a few points too big.

The dangers… I won’t be shocked if any of the top 3 win but I didn’t think they were overpriced to do so. Ironclad should be better than 86 this season esp given his G1 breeding, on both sides of his page. This hasn’t been the plan, withdrawn from an earlier engagement due to fast ground, and his trainer has a niggle about whether he’ll handle the track. I get the impression he’s fit though and if he does handle it, could bolt up. 7/2 is short to find out I thought, esp from stall 2 where he could get caught in a pocket up the straight. As is 5s for Caradoc who has to prove he’s progressed, if 5lb above his last win (but decent form) and has race fitness to prove. Johnny Drama would be annoying as he hits a few pointers also, but he was 11/2 gen and that didn’t seem overly big to me.

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Kameko – ah, a tip in The Derby, which i’ll no doubt regret. All of the ‘judges’ seem adamant that he won’t stay and i’m not sure he comes out that great on dosage either – but he’s the best horse in the race, has the best form, a significant class edge and I think i’m taking 5s to find out. As if he does stay (a big IF i know) he’d win this for me, based on the existing evidence. There’s also not loads of pace on paper – maybe he needs a stronger pace to settle, but it may not be a searching gallop. AOB may ensure it is though. He stayed 8f well at Newcastle as a 2 year old which takes some doing and was doing all his best work late in the Guineas. I thought he was worth chancing but it is an educated guessers race, and maybe more guessing than in many.

Of the rest… plenty think Mohican Heights could run a big race at 16s and I suppose Russian Emperor shapes like a stayer in the making. Throwing change at AObs biggies in this race can work out ok, over time, but he does seem to be throwing more hopeful darts this year. We shall see, but you may not need to ‘truly’ stay this year, as without the 2000G winner this could be a Group 2 or 3.

 

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Straight Right – 12s looked worth chancing in this 0-95 and given most of the form on show it does look like a class 3. He’s yet to win on turf but I think there’s plenty of excuses, mainly softer going, but he’s some solid form to his name, inc at Glorious Goodwood was back in 2017 over 7f, in a better handicap than this – he finished 3rd there, running on, off 103 (95 today) on Good, drawn wide, held up – decent. A run to suggest Good ground/turf is no problem. Esp in the context of his price. 3 starts back in Feb he may well have won at Newcastle off 98 had he a clear run. He returned at Ascot in a much deeper handicap than this and ran well enough up the middle, again on ground that was too soft for him. SDS rides the 7f here pretty well, 16/50, 25p +24 SP since the start of 2009, 11/33, 16p in the last 5 years. I’ll trust in him to get this right. Hopefully he starts well and can race mid division. There’s some pace on paper. He can then pull out up the straight and make his challenge.

Of the rest… Hateya may well have been laid out for this given his close 2nd in this last year off 1lb lower. I didn’t think that was a great C2 for the money but he does well at this CD and may not be too far away. The rest have plenty of questions to answer also.

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So, that’s all for today. GL with any bets.

Josh