Daily Members Post: 03/07/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(2/28,11p, +15.2, +30.5 BFSP)

6.20 Ham – Euro Implosion – 1 point win – 13/2 (WH/BV) 6/1 (gen) UP 7/2, aptly named!!

that’s all for today, as of 09.03, write up…

One from the ‘Battle of Marengo’ sire angle below as my ‘way in’ – I thought there could be more to come from him this season, aged 4. It clicked for him last year over 12f or so, with cut in the ground, including a running on effort in a C4 here (that race worked out ok also). He is 3lb above his last winning mark but I can’t say as yet that he hasn’t stopped improving, especially over this sort of trip/ground, and in a class 5. He arrives here fit, and in form – having run well on his seasonal return at Thirsk. They all bumped into one there, the winner dotting up again since. Joe Fanning gets the ride and knows the horse well, 1/3,3p and the horse can race prominently – Joe likes to have them up there if he can and if he’s here to run his race he really shouldn’t be far off the pace here. Generally here you need to be up there. The horse won’t mind if the ground gets even softer and he does just gallop. There’s a chance he bumps into a better handicapped horse but he’s that perfect mix I think – some solid form in the book already but with the chance there’s more to come. This is probably a better profile than some of those very lightly raced horses i’ve been tipping, some of whom had yet to win etc. I think this one ticks every box you want really, and i’d be surprised if he wasn’t thereabouts in this race. I thought he was a couple of points too big here.

Of the rest… if Jardine gets former Ebor winner/Melbourne Cup 5th Nakeeta back to anything like former glories he could dot up but he’s enough questions for me at 6s, but the fact some money is coming is interesting. Haslam’s could be open to further improvement but has a ground question, and I fancy mine to have a shade more class- and he has course experience also. But he’s a LTO winner, aged 4, and there could be more to come. The rest had plenty of questions but there could be the odd lurker, Ventura Dragon lining up for his inform trainer/jockey, first start for them and 1st blinkers – which makes me think he could be here to run his race/won’t need it.

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2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

12.00 Hayd – Mephisto (16/1<) 3/1 UP

3.20 Chep – Tribal Commander (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

4.00 Hayd – Dacing Approach (any) H2 7/1 WON 7/1> 6/1 (she hit 14s at 11am…)

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot Form 

5.20 Ham – Makthecat (1st run) 7/1 UP

Losing Tips

5.20 Ham – Hortzadar (1st run) H4 3/1 WON 3/1 > 10/3 SP  DQ, weighed in light! 

 

5.Other/Updates

NOTE…. Horse Race Base Ratings… I think they do a morning update for these, i’m not sure – but I am double checking any horse listed in the above sections to see if they’re H1-4 … as they either do update them or i’ve missed a couple on my evening run through. So if you do use said ratings at all, do check back in the morning also. I look again when I add the prices, usually around 8am Mon-Fri

 

Stats Pointers

Marengo Sally was a non-runner, but that same sire stat…

Battle Of Marengo progeny / 1m3.5f+ / Flat Turf… 9/24, 13p, +19 BFSP

.. has two ‘qualifiers’ on Friday to ponder as you please…

  • 4.00 Hayd – Red Missile UP
  • 6.20 Ham- Euro Implosion H3 UP

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In case you missed it…

Epsom Stats Pointers: Read HERE>>> 

Trends Thursday: pointers for x3 big weekend handicaps, READ HERE>>> 

Always Back Winners1 month trialmore info HERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

49 Comments

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  • A 9/2 winner and a non runner on Thursday.

    Friday tips:

    12.00 HP, Anfield Girl;
    1.00 HP, Esprit Rose;
    4.00 HP, Nashy;
    8.15 Nav, Felix Desjy.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 02/07/20 8:27 PM Reply


  • Ascot runners today.
    12.45. Chep. Mashmoom
    13.45. Chep. Bowland Park
    14.00. Hayd. William Bligh
    17.30. Wolvs. Mehmo

    silver 03/07/20 12:49 AM Reply


    • 1st 3 are on my list .. happy days thanks for bolstering my opinon 🙂 wd silver !!

      GEORGE B 03/07/20 1:50 PM Reply


      • Hi George…the Ascot list runners do a lot better when I don’t talk about them…..hidden message there !!!! Bowland Park drifted like a barge before the off and ended up 19.5 BSP…but cannot claim credit for making them selections as just put the Ascot list for folk to make their own minds up but, obviously glad that the first two have done well…when are you getting things oven ready??? All the best.

        silver 03/07/20 1:58 PM Reply


      • well treble me !!!!! the ovens seem to be working now .. especially if the recipe is bolstered by other peoples suggestions … just waiting for health and safety to say i can open to the unsuspecting public once again 🙂 … good here innit 🙂

        GEORGE B 03/07/20 2:05 PM Reply


        • Nothing wrong with other input…really helps in bring things into focus…that is what RTP is all about…hope the oven is ready to fire up in the near future.

          silver 03/07/20 2:14 PM Reply


          • What’s going on here then? I go out and get soaked with the dog and come back to you two smashing t! Well done.

            Mark Curtis 03/07/20 2:37 PM Reply


            • Thanks MC but as I said earlier cannot take credit as they were not put up as selections…just pleased that putting up Ascot list runners have proved useful and to get 3 up is as much as a surprise to me as it was to you!! Too much to hope that the last one pops in, but I suppose anything is possible!!

              silver 03/07/20 2:49 PM Reply


            • you know its your lucky day when you prefusely back Redarna 5.20H singles and lots of doubles treble … leave your station seeing it finish 2nd … only to find out an hour later that the result was amended and he was awarded the race … .. i was long over due one of them i can tell ya !! 🙂 oh happy days !!! 🙂

              it drifted like a barge as well .. don’t know why ?? had conditions going for it ???

              cheers
              Lord GB
              on y va !

              GEORGE B 03/07/20 6:46 PM Reply


        • Lord George
          get on with it man for let a message with the butler last week, passed the inspection.
          Colin

          cleafe 03/07/20 2:30 PM Reply


  • JOSH
    Please accept my sincerest appologies for I was so wrong and out of order.
    Enjoyed our lengthy chat last night and i honestly believed in my mind that you had turned against me, now i know it is totally the opposite, and i look forward to checking out one of my old methods on that dreaded machine Ha Ha, will be interesting to see what it reveals.
    Cheers
    Colin

    cleafe 03/07/20 8:28 AM Reply


    • Nice one Colin, shows a lot of class
      Mike

      Titus 03/07/20 8:46 AM Reply


    • Good work Colin. Takes a lot to do that. Full respect to you, our esteemed leader and this whole wonderful group of people…

      dougandnicky 03/07/20 10:18 AM Reply


    • Good man Colin,appreciate all your work on here.

      Gerald Finnegan 03/07/20 10:24 AM Reply


    • No problem Colin and the apology is much appreciated. Glad we could talk on the phone and clear the air.
      Just remember this is meant to be one happy ship floating in the same direction where everyone wants everyone else to do well 🙂 But racing families are meant to squabble every now and then it seems!
      Josh

      Josh 03/07/20 10:46 AM Reply


    • Great news. Takes a lot of guts to apologise Colin. Shows true class. All the best.

      silver 03/07/20 11:53 AM Reply


  • Told you, we all hug it out in the end. Well done Colin and Josh, long may you both prosper 🙂

    Mark Curtis 03/07/20 8:30 AM Reply


  • Nelson’s River Chepstow 15:20
    Venura Dragon Hamilton 18:20

    NickM 03/07/20 9:04 AM Reply


    • Look who’s back tipping again!

      I guess the new Sake supply has not been delivered yet this week? Does it work with a lemonade top, like Fosters!

      Martin Colwell 03/07/20 10:02 AM Reply


      • What a horrible thought! Couldn’t think of anything worse. Does go well with fizz but I tend to lave that for the poor quality stuff which I don’t enjoy on its own.

        NickM 03/07/20 10:38 AM Reply


  • Colin, if all Members of Parliament could aplogise when they are wrong, as you have done then this country would be a better place. Great to have you back in a better place. Look forward to your selections with great anticipation.

    Gordonfr 03/07/20 9:51 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE
    Hamilton
    2.10 Astrophysics
    4.15 Dark Defender

    Please do not back the bet below for i am not it is the old method with no name, cue for a song.
    4.15 Hamilton Dandys Gold

    Victory
    only potential bet was 3.20 Chepstow Le Musee backed down to 7/4 which is a negative, too short for me, and the last time it won it was a CAREER high the weight it carried, now anyone believe that there is anymore improvement in a 7 yo, there maybe and it may win but i certainly would not risk my money!
    So there you have it a part of how i sift through the potential bets there are far more negatives i look for than that one in my dark mind.
    Colin.

    cleafe 03/07/20 10:22 AM Reply


  • What a day – first Colin & Josh have a virtual hug and all is right in the world again. Well done shows the integrity and honour that runs thru this site. Then lo and behold the cherry on the cake Nick comes back today as well !!

    Final Flight 03/07/20 10:30 AM Reply


  • Man,
    we’re getting the band back together!!

    Sid 03/07/20 11:25 AM Reply


  • One speed horse today.

    2:30 haydock zenenia

    Couple of each ways
    3:00 haydock chairmanic
    3:20 Chepstow tribal commander.

    Good luck everyone.
    Nice to see everyone getting along again.
    P.s sorry Colin for endorsing your selection last name and dooming it I promise it won’t happen again lol.

    warren Bottomley 03/07/20 11:41 AM Reply


    • my my ….why do i bother trying to bake cakes ..when this village has so many cordon bleu chefs cooking up winner after winner .. thanks warren b and silver .. only backed them singuarlllerllllyy ! 🙁 but that gives me more money to waste on my burnt buns !! ..keep upda good work in the rtp village
      best rgds
      The RTP village idiot baker 🙂

      GEORGE B 03/07/20 2:52 PM Reply


  • My apologies chairmanic is in the 13:00 at haydock

    warren Bottomley 03/07/20 12:29 PM Reply


    • INDEED IT WAS .. thanks n wd 🙂

      GEORGE B 03/07/20 1:09 PM Reply


      • Glad you spotted it. George B

        warren Bottomley 03/07/20 2:41 PM Reply


    • Nice shout on both runners…Cordon bleu indeed!!

      silver 03/07/20 3:28 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the kind messages. It’s nice to get a couple of winners especially after not having a bet for over 6 months. It’s good to see the RTP family still going well. I did get a nice suprise when I got my debit card out to pay for subs only to find I didnt need too. Felt like a early Christmas present lol.

      warren Bottomley 03/07/20 4:27 PM Reply


  • NEW POST…

    I’ve just pulled together a Results post for June, inc a link to the spreadsheets etc…

    that’s here… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/07/03/resultsjune/

    Some interesting reading, esp the stats qualifiers that are top 4 in HRB ratings…

    Josh

    Josh 03/07/20 1:17 PM Reply


    • Hi Josh….great result in steering the ship earlier, truly great….interested to know regarding breeding…do you just focus on sires or dams or both and if there is an age component ie. 2 yo 3yo or if older horses….be interested to see if you find any difference….regarding the latter is form of the horse more important than sires etc……Personally, I find the sires/dams more important in 2yo and 3 yo and form lines more to the fore, even in the younger age group….obviously in unraced horses the only clue is in the breeding, sire and dam lines…..would be interested to hear your thoughts…all the best

      silver 03/07/20 2:22 PM Reply


      • Hi John,
        Cheers…

        Oh, there’s no right way of course – but in general there isn’t much point with exposed horses I suppose, as a rule – I suppose, from a systematic point of view, the less info in the form book/on paper, the better – and more likely to find value approaches not built into odds, and that the general punting public wouldn’t cotton onto as quick.

        The Newcastle angle – well that is all about the surface, and horses improving for it.

        The others have a trainer element – which I like, esp on the Flat – they will be creatures of habit in what they buy, family knowledge, training etc. Obv with the owner/breeders of even more interest, and why Coolmoore’s Pivotal Dams is interesting.
        Some of the others are sire based, in relation to certain conditions – a few of them are based on fillies.

        From a stats/angle point of view I look at sires, and dam sires – not much point in looking at dams as the stats pool too small – that’s different from what you’d look at with an interest in 2YO say, and a horse by horse punting perspective. The dam sire stuff is fascinating and another area that could easily go under the radar.

        They’re angles hard to find though. But in general I suppose they’re useful esp for horses doing something new/unexposed – they’re hard to get a grip on with ‘form’ analysis etc but ripe for that sort of approach maybe. I have only scratched the surface and will do more pondering on it next week I think –
        Another idea I had is gelding ops/1st run/sires etc.

        The sires research, but without commentary, is here…

        https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Sire-Angles-March-2020.pdf

        Josh 03/07/20 3:01 PM Reply


        • Interesting stuff, the post by another member putting up Equineline.com has proved very good for assessing the dam input, especially if the dam has had winners…as stated previously I use Pedigreequery.com for dosage and blood line info in relation to large hearted bloodlines….dosage is something that I have only recently started to explore and found it useful for identifying stamina and speed potential…I more work to do on interpreting the data but have found this a good guide to identifying horses that may have a preference for speed/stamina…..as a quick guide I use HRB, like yourself, and if pushed for time find the % distance and going columns for stallions category a good guide to potential winners in the daily cards….very useful, so that may be a quick way forwards…..Agree trainers an ideal way ….the only downside for me in using trainers is that prices tend to be short…Meehan used to be a trainer that 2nd time out to back his runners was a way in but recently his FTO runners have been very good so may be he has changed his approach or has better horses this time around….not looked a those gelded but can see the logic….lots of food for thought, many thanks ….all the best

          silver 03/07/20 3:45 PM Reply


  • I have 4.15 Hamilton Dandys Gold Dark Defender has tough drawn 11
    3.20 CH Blazon was close second here lto with first run on turf with odds 18/1 La Musee is to short
    3.50 CH Ascot Day on winning mark can be close
    5.20 Ham Storm Ahead on winning mark
    And Bombastic 18 .00 Wolves won lto at Newcastle today 2lb higher but his career winning mark is much higher

    Pab 03/07/20 2:08 PM Reply


    • Pab
      Dark Defender as the worst draw which is a negative, decided to go for it because of the price 11/2 and as the assistance of Joe Fanning who has won on it before and only been in the plate 4/5 times out of its 51 races so we shall see if Joe can do his magic.
      Colin

      cleafe 03/07/20 2:23 PM Reply


      • Dandys Gold running after break second run for Roger Fell

        Pab 03/07/20 3:06 PM Reply


    • Blazon never bet on Timeform number 1 pick didn’t see that before

      Pab 03/07/20 3:58 PM Reply


  • Dancing Approach… hopefully any ‘followers’, esp of those with ratings pointers… may have had a nibble and got bigger than the 8am 7s, she drifted right out to 12s/14s in the hour+ that followed, annoyingly…

    As per results update post… the stats quals with a HRB rating… … taking ALL Sections 2 & 3 stats qualifiers, regardless of price, that had a H1/H2/H3/H4 next to their name to… 51 bets / 15 wins / 30 w|p / +42 points (8am odds/not bog)

    Worth noting – I obviously looked at her tipping wise… but 3YO only, up in class, didn’t know what she beat LTO, Soft (and Haydock Soft) a complete unknown, and I couldn’t work out why Jason Watson wasn’t on! But she did have a H2 next to her name, in form etc – so not too bad 🙂

    Josh 03/07/20 4:18 PM Reply


    • Nice call on dancing approach Josh.
      Did it e/w.
      Was second on my dubious speed rating formula I’ve concocted myself but thought it was for a place.
      Well done.

      warren Bottomley 03/07/20 4:39 PM Reply


      • Cheers Warren, well done with your winners, top work.

        Yep, that’s where such a stats (with some ratings pointers) help, as my tipping eyes happy to leave at 7s – as was I, until she walked in the market and she did hit a price that just felt too big, shame she wasn’t that price early in the morning but alas – thankfully the ratings pointers ‘qualifiers’ are now looking a solid approach and ‘strategy’ of sorts, and with any luck will keep ticking over, although +40 points every 50 bets is a bit silly and will level off at some point.

        Josh

        Josh 03/07/20 5:05 PM Reply


    • Nice winner for the profiles stats…seems contributors have hit a purple patch today, who would have thunk it!

      silver 03/07/20 4:57 PM Reply


  • Just need euro implosion to do it’s stuff to keep Josh’s tips ticking along.
    I can’t couldn’t split multellie,nakeeta and euro implosion so went with Josh.

    warren Bottomley 03/07/20 5:03 PM Reply


  • That’s another for Josh
    Well done.
    Looks like Everyone is having a good day day.

    warren Bottomley 03/07/20 5:27 PM Reply


    • Ha, shame he wasn’t 33s, but that was no Royal Ascot handicap! I suspect my losing tips may do ok on their next start or two, and possibly backed blind but we shall see. I didn’t think 3s was overpriced there today for tipping purposes but he won like it was a good price, alas.
      Sadly, we know how this day will now end!!

      Josh 03/07/20 5:30 PM Reply


      • Yes I’ve mentioned your horse before it’s ran in my comment so I’ve now doomed it like Colin’s last night
        Sorry……..

        warren Bottomley 03/07/20 5:34 PM Reply


  • got 13.5 on Dancing Approach 🙂
    wondered what had happened with Hortzader money was in my account for a couple of minutes then gone.

    martin whittle 03/07/20 6:34 PM Reply


    • Seems 365 don’t pay first past the post. Mine disappeared too.
      Horse was disqualified.

      warren Bottomley 03/07/20 9:08 PM Reply


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