Daily Members Posts: 01/07/20 (complete)

Stats of interest, Quals, Epsom


2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow


(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)




The Flat 

(2/27,11p, +16.2, +31.5 BFSP)

Nothing today, I struggled to get motivated for Musselburgh’s card. My plan with the Jumps is to leave it until ‘Twister time’ in September – trying to have two distinct ‘seasons’ on here as far as possible – well, certainly June/July/August flat focused, bar the odd big jumps race/meeting. A solid if unspectacular start on the tipping front – the P/L / ROI is decent and obviously i’d take that every month, but i’m conscious Scarlet Dragon (ah yes, a jumps trainer!!) is papering over a few cracks on that front, I haven’t been that consistent, and while the places look ok, most haven’t gone that close. And too many ‘back of the tv jobs’ for comfort. So, more pondering there. Anyway, i’ll get a results post up before the week is out, with a recap on the month – the new stats started the month well before a correction of sorts. But i’ll share what I have in due course, inc the spreadsheets. 

At the bottom of the post there’s a couple of stats of interest, having said I won’t talk much about the jumps… 


2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat



3.Other Micro Angles



4.Horses to Follow


8.45 Kemp – Martineo (2nd run) 15/2




Epsom Pointers: HERE>>>


Stats Pointers 

As it’s quiet, I had a flick through the excellent Geegeez ‘Reports Angles Reports’ and a couple of jumps stats caught my eye – I haven’t looked at the races or the horses (i’ll leave that to you today) but the combos that follow may be worth noting down for future reference, for those of you who enjoy such things…

Brian Ellison / Brian Hughes

In the last year they’re 28 bets / 13 wins / 14p / +50 SP / AE 1.95 / IV 4.49

Today they team up with Ballyvic Boru in the 12.35 Southwell.

There’s logic for why his booking is significant, more so than previous years – obviously he’s champion jockey now and has plenty of choice – he wants winners. And he’s also tied to the McCain yard, so ‘outside’ rides may take on more significance. Anyway, a combo to note which the market hasn’t over-bet as yet.

Neil King/Bryony Frost 

At Southwell they’re… 13 bets / 5 wins / 8p / +30 SP

I haven’t looked to see if that’s just a handful of horses, and of course she’s stable jockey to the King yard (if no obligation to Paul) so her booking may be less significant than previous seasons, but as a track micro combo that’s solid enough.

Today they team up in the 1.40 and 3.40.

This return date has been in the diary long enough to make me think if a jumps trainer wants a horse fit, they will be – most may have been making returns in June anyway, so I doubt their training will have been disrupted, and it certainly won’t have for when the winter game returns. But, we shall see.


Special Offer…

Later today i’ll be posting a special offer from an ‘old’ friend of the blog (well, new last winter!) who’s turning into the best daily Flat/AW tipster I’ve seen, who’s pulled in +42 points in June to his 1 point EW bets (from just 26 bets). The 20 or so of you who stayed since those winter highs will be happy with that start. Of course a losing run is now due, alas. But he tips in the morning, and records to advised price. And it’s a relaxing number of bets, which I like.  I’ve convinced him to let you have 80% off for the first month to see for yourselves. I’m going to do a proper post / video, but if you can’t wait until then you can take a look HERE>>>




Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. A decent day on Monday:

    A 7/1 winner, 14/1 place, non runner and a loser.

    Wednesday selections:

    12.45 Mus, Red Stripes;
    1.50 Mus, Eveaaj;
    2.20 Mus, Muntadab;
    4.35 Tip, Mr Jackman.

    Good luck.

  2. S 12.35 – Ontopoftheworld @ 14/16’s some 4plcs for e/w………Peter gets these ready generally
    S 3.10 – Oscar Rose @ 8……….Paddy n Fergal owe us nothing and runs well on harder ground.

  3. Morning all
    Had a look at those stat pointers and flintrock in the 1:40 at southwell for the king/frost angle definetly with a look.

  4. this post should come with a warning as my form is appalling at the moment but on we go.
    Tipperary 2-00. Kilganer Queen 20-1 bog 4 places, 3/19 over hurdles but those wins have been in better company than this, recent stable change 5lb claimer on board and is back to last winning mark.
    over at Southwell
    12-35. Ontopoftheworld 14-1 bog 4 places
    1-40. Zamoyski 7-1 bog
    3-10. Byron Flyer 11-2 bog 4 places
    4-10. Marble Moon 14-1 bog ( tiny ew on Mr Mafia)
    ew singles and a ew L15

  5. My speed rated horses for today.

    1:10 south the greater good
    1:40 South flintrock
    1:50 muss golden zabeel
    3:10 south Byron flyer
    3:50 muss stormin Norman
    5:25 lep sinawann

    Non speed e/w

    12:00 south Zen master
    2:10 south rhosneigr

    Good luck everyone.

  6. Busy Street.Looks like loser but he is course specialist .Will stay on distance and and most of his wins came second run after break.Second run for Tony Carroll after leaving Michael Appleby .Back in trip step down in class
    14/1 now with one NR in the race.Was 33/1 yesterday
    Jersey Wonder looks best to me currently 9/2

    1. Yet another outsider at Kempton .Kings Highway currently 25/1
      Very poor run here after break however Disappointed with cheekpieces added on C&D 11 days ago and the headgear is quickly discarded.
      Small bet on him with that price.Yet another e/w bet at K 19.15
      Just The Man 14/1 just one lb above winning mark good draw CD winner and both Cox/Kirby are in form.Much more reasonable bet that previous ones

  7. i like Cracking Destiny for the 12.35 Southwell today. Thought the Musselburgh Greaneteen form was good, with that horse going on to a 5.5 length 4th in the Grand Annual at cheltenham off 12lbs higher, whilst Cracking Destiny gets in off the same mark today, (Ellison horse well behind). Had a prep round Newcastle on the flat to get ready for this. Would be interested in Bowen horses for summer jumps, had a bad time of things last season, which could mean he has a bunch of well handicapped horses now, a big operation so I’m sure they will turn things round sooner or later. Good luck

    1. unlucky James, we will never know – but Cracking D was travelling strongly and in the perfect spot before capsizing – and given how race played out suspect would have been banging on the door.

      Good point about Peter Bowen – can only assume they’ve had a virus or something up, 10/171 in the last year before today. It could well be they’ve just got a few too many old times now, i’m not sure. But they are worth keeping an eye on, as with Ben Pauling’s who I suspect has a fair few that haven’t run many times illness free.

  8. Ascot list runner:

    16.40 Kemp Sarsaparilla.

    Have had a look at this and undecided so no selection. Tricky race and not enough runners for any of the outsiders. Hope the Ascot list runner wins but no bet. Generally, trappy days racing so back tomorrow. Good luck with whatever you back today.

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