Daily Members Post: 30/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

(2/27,11p, +16.2, +31.5 BFSP)

#1 – 1.30 Donc – Double Up – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365/WH) 9/2 (gen) UP

that’s all for today, as of 07.55, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.30 Donc – Double Up (9/1<) H4 9/2 UP

8.00 Chep – Tomorrow’s Dream (7/1< guide) H4 9/2 WON 9/2>7/2 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

Tip – Double Up –

I thought i’d chance the old boy here as he ran really well LTO to my eyes, in a much deeper race than this. That was a C4 with a median OR of 84, dropping into a C5 here with a median OR of 69. 1f from home he was almost leading, before his earlier efforts caught up with him, fading 1/2f from home as they hit the rise. He was drawn in 1 there, with the stalls against the nearside – he was keen, Cieran tried to settle him further back, and then about 2f out or so he moved him forward, around and across. I can’t think it was the most efficient use of energy but in any case I suspect, like plenty of Ian’s it seems, will come on for the run. This is his 13th start for the trainer and the first time he’s run in a C5 for him. He was rated 103 when he got him, aged 8. However there were plenty of respectable efforts last season, esp on the AW, in races that produced numerous subsequent winners. That run LTO is working out ok – a winner in behind, the 2nd ran another solid race off 80s NTO.

It could be he’s just getting a bit wise now and is hard to win with but I thought he had no excuse today and he arrives on the back of a good run. He’s placed over the CD previously and is drawn on the right side I think – well he has pace from the fav and stall 3 to take him into it – hopefully he settles just behind them and then pounces.

Of the rest – Mr Wagyu is what he is – a sprinter in form who based on previous highs is still well handicapped. He did win by a neck LTO and has gone up 4lb – he should run his race and be thereabouts and is the right fav. But he’s not unexposed as such and I thought worth taking on at his price in the hope Double Up has a shade too much class for him, even in his latter years. Turn To Rock is interesting and is one to fear – as he’s unexposed and 1st run for Jedd, who’s hitting form now. He’s readied a couple for these new owners to the game and the market suggests this one’s fit and working well. It’s his first run on turf though, and he could be away from the pace. I suspect he’s better than 72 though.

The rest had a few too many questions- even if he needed it, I was struggling to work out why Redrosezorro would overturn form with Mr Wayyu, if both running their race again. I suppose Big Lachie, on his 64th career start, has bits and pieces of form, and a CD winner, that would put him in the mix from this mark – I wanted to see more LTO though although he was too free.

Hopefully Double Up runs his race, as in this grade/mark it could now all click.

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Ruth Carr – I thought i’d mention her given she had a winner yesterday, having been 0/37,0p on the return before that. I think she may have ‘turned out’ plenty of hers during lock-down, rather than keep them in full training – and she also does lots of ‘lunging’ and seemingly isn’t too hard on them at home (which may be why plenty are still going aged 8+) in any case, many of hers seem to run into full fitness, more so than other yards, needing a run or three. She can be a ‘streaky’ trainer and they come in bursts – so something to keep an eye on – they can fly in at all sorts of prices, and if you’re a handicap player, any of hers may be worth a second look in the next 2-3 weeks, esp those that have run. It could be the burst isn’t quite yet but I suspect there could be one at some point soon.

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Epsom – i’ll see if I can find ant stats pointers of note for The Derby meeting this weekend – some cracking racing in store to sit back and enjoy. I’ll see if there are any ‘micros’ that may help us.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • No joy Monday.

    Four each way tips for Tuesday:

    1.45 Mus, Gorgeous Gobolina;
    2.45 Mus, Kyllachy Warrior;
    3.00 Don, Indie Angel;
    4.15 Mus, Bea Ryan.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 29/06/20 8:31 PM Reply


  • Prices since the large bookmakers have had control of racing returns in my view stinks, thought for a while what is wrong.
    22nd to 29th sp prices make it 25 meetings and the sp returns 1 at 20/1 and 2 at 33/1
    In this time noticed 2/3 28/1 returns, would these have been 33/1 if the smaller on course bookmakers had their say, who knows.
    Colin.

    cleafe 29/06/20 9:33 PM Reply


    • Betfair SP keeps it simple rather than swanning about on Oddschecker.

      Martin Colwell 29/06/20 9:42 PM Reply


    • Yep there’s much debate about the SP return etc but it is regulated, and for those fascinated by such things there’s much more here>>>

      http://www.thesprc.org/

      The industry as a whole seems to be happy enough I think with how it’s operating, and there was plenty of debate about the ‘old’ method just using on course bookmakers.

      The Horse Racing Bettors Forum have done some preliminary work on it also, and early evidence of ‘over round per horse’ and the profit bookmakers were making per horse/race in their book, has actually been more in the punters favour – they’re taking less out than they were pre lockdown. Although plenty of debate still about the methods used etc.

      And there’s some good stuff on their site etc… https://ukhbf.org/hbf-positional-statements/

      I suppose it only really matters if you’ve BOG, and with odd winner you back that drifts – as if you’re betting to industry SP you’re never going to win long term. And the current method has nothing to do with the exchanges.

      Although on all of these issues there’s far smarter people than me who are on top of the detail. The SP isn’t just pulled out of a hat.

      Josh

      Josh 30/06/20 8:59 AM Reply


      • But who gets BOG online these days? I know oddschecker says you can but bet regularly and see if you still can.

        Even if you wander down to the high street the bookies are only going BOG on certain races and are inconsistent as to when they do and when they do not in my experience.

        Things are simple for me. I can get on to Bet365 online and do multiples and get on the exchanges. I can go into bookies as well. So i do not need to worry about what is happening on Oddschecker.

        Good luck with your bets.

        Martin Colwell 30/06/20 10:10 AM Reply


        • Oh I don’t dispute that – I suppose I was pondering the SP return etc and it’s impact on us! And if we’re generally betting non bog in morning, taking a price, and/or betfair taking a price when liquidity/BFSP, it’s not overly important as such. The over-round etc of more importance maybe.

          Ideally all results for anything would be recorded on gen advised price non bog / BFSP / Bog, so you see a comparison – I think an approach has to work on advised price long term, and that in the morning 8am onwards, but it won’t be as good as BOG, but should still be much better than SP, if the ‘value’ eyes are any good. IF BFSP is the most efficient price, and what a horse should be – over a monstrous sample/time, you shouldn’t win to BFSP either! But of course will be races etc where over time market’s wrong, and maybe that’s on the big races/double figure ones – where the returns can obv be much bigger.

          This topic will be debated forever more, but such are BOG terms now it’s hard to keep up, and unless you’re tipping at 9am/10am i’m not sure using BOG is best – although I suspect a large majority do still have enough bog accounts etc – but as you say if you’ve a successful approach over a few months, where SP is consistently hammered etc, your BOG wont’ last overly long – seems to be the first concession to go.

          Josh

          Josh 30/06/20 10:22 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    No bet

    Jun + 27.733
    Mar + 26.5
    Feb – 0.5
    Jan + 37.583
    Total + 91.316
    Colin.

    cleafe 30/06/20 9:19 AM Reply


    • Great stuff Colin – I suppose those results to date are not too shabby! 🙂

      Bar being top/joint weights that won LTO – i’m stuck! – i’ll keep digging in my HRB account to see if I can unearth anything – i’ve looked at such things a few years back but struggled, there must be something i’m missing but don’t expect your secrets to be revealed, – unless I suspect something in the newspaper you use which helps filter.

      Anyway, keep up the superb work and fingers crossed it keeps ticking over,
      Josh

      Josh 30/06/20 10:08 AM Reply


      • For you Josh the secret is revealed it is a pin !!! and have had it for over 25 years.

        Everything i do on the horses is very basic too many try to compecate racing along with football, Brazil who have won the World Cup most times, had one stratgey attack and score goals, concede one go and get another, simple but worked, this is the same with racing, common sence, knowledge and experience stand to the fore.
        Clive Holt original book taught me so much, which i have mentioned on here before, and once again it is so simple and basic but his theory works alongside knowledge and experience and of coarse work at reading the races, and thankfully the 3 old methods i have revisited have been very productive so far, and more to come.
        Victory racing may start again tomorrow and another new one, thinking of a name for it and this is the one i mentioned some time ago which you tried roasting me over with the stats off your machine, but the machine does not take into account knowledge and with any method you do not bet every potential selection blind.
        All the best
        Colin

        cleafe 30/06/20 11:05 AM Reply


        • What about ‘Ram Man’ for the new tipping stream? Or ‘Rooney Toons’ ?

          Just trying to help !

          Martin Colwell 30/06/20 11:12 AM Reply


        • Yep I don’t disagree with that.

          Although I’d have thought you’d like to know if the foundations of an approach were solid, how likely they are to be repeated (which can be important esp if running a service) and how right you have to be long term (ie how much filtering you have to do from the initial foundation method – ie if said method loses stacks to BFSP over time/AE etc – obviously there’s more pressure on the filtering/experience etc) But each to their own- the dreaded machine can save a lot of time and be quite eye-opening at times!! And be rather useful for boosting your confidence in an approach even more.

          If you’re just using top/joint weights/LTO winners as starting points in handicaps, then I doff my cap even more, as that’s some credit to your filtering/analytical approach (scrabbles around for my Clive Holt book, i’m sure ive one somewhere…) – as I can see from my machine how poorly that ‘system’ does long term. (without any filters /experience etc- but i’m going to look again! – as the foundation SR is solid)

          But whatever you’re doing with Tip Top, based on those results, don’t change it. 🙂

          Josh

          Josh 30/06/20 11:22 AM Reply


    • Consistent stuff Colin…all power to your elbow……congrats on the figures, true professional.

      silver 30/06/20 3:45 PM Reply


  • 12.3o Doncaster
    Scarboroughdebut 28/1

    2.oo Doncaster
    Flavius Titus 22/1
    (got this race down to 4, but chancing this one due to yard doing well, 4lb lighter than last win)
    Flying Pursuit 22/1, Princess Power 20/1, The Cruising Lord 22/1

    3.oo Doncaster
    Angel of Delight 16/1
    (got this race down to 3, again stable and Jockey in form, think this is over priced but plenty unexposed types in this, tough race)
    Intercessor 40/1, La Bayou 28/1

    all small e/w darts
    no strong fancies I’m just punting, some have extra places I’ll be making the most of too 🙂

    Gina Collins 30/06/20 9:21 AM Reply


    • 1230 agreed
      200 Corinthia Knight is worth considering
      300 I like your choice; a race I’d ignored

      Chris 30/06/20 10:46 AM Reply


  • Leicester lockdown?
    An abandonment to come?
    All inessential travel to and from the city has been curtailed on Govt advice.

    Chris 30/06/20 11:06 AM Reply


    • The meeting is ON!

      Chris 30/06/20 11:46 AM Reply


      • Not a good decision. The meeting should have been called off as soon as Lockdown was announced.

        Phil Coverdale 30/06/20 4:49 PM Reply


        • Why? No members of the public are allowed in.

          Mark Curtis 30/06/20 7:12 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners:
    12.30. Donc. Bright Armor
    12.45. Mussel. Ventura Mutiny
    13.00. Donc. Zoetic.
    17.00 Chep. Furlong Factor
    18.00 Chep. Living On A Dream/Proclaimed
    19.00. Chep. Weymouth Bay.

    Had a look at a 12.30 Donc and 13.00 Donc.

    Selections: 12.30 Donc. Bright Armor
    13.00 Donc. Zoetic (e/w if price is 5/1 +)

    12. 30 Doncaster…….Bright Armor sets the standard and have the horse running faster than Digital. The selection is closely matched with Rolfe Rembrandt so would not be surprised if that won. Of the bigger prices of horses that have not run, on pedigree I like McManaman and Scarboroughdebut, the latter has a bloodline to Dandy Man a 5f and 6f sire so would hope one of the runs a good enough race to hit the frame. Ubettabelieveit was 2 lengths behind Rolfe Rembrandt, having dwelt at the start finishing fourth on debut may have enough to turn the form around with Ralph Rembrandt.

    13.00 Doncaster. Zoetic set the standard and is now a backable 15/2 each way price. Not sure why She Do is the fav and is too short to back…I have the time of the debut race the horse ran in as being slow and the run time below average….no doubt find out! Shining Success from the Cox stable is interesting from a pedigree angle so personally will be having a few pennies on at the current price of 20/1. Anghaam , with Frankel as the sire has to be respected and may well be good enough to win on debut. Star of Bahrain is from ~Dandy Man, already mentioned as a good sprinter sire above, and Hollie Doyle in the saddle…what is not to like! Her stats here on two year olds are 0/7 but on pedigree alone and at the price I personally will be having a few pennies on that one.

    Good luck if playing and all the best with whatever you back today.

    silver 30/06/20 11:24 AM Reply


  • Morning all

    Had a look at both trainer profile horses and you can make a case for both I got them second and third on my speed ratings.

    The two that hit the top spot today are
    Gold arch 21:00 Chepstow
    Cider apple 19:00 Chepstow

    Not the best prices but a win is a win.

    Good luck everyone.

    warren Bottomley 30/06/20 11:44 AM Reply


  • well iv’e had to do Scarboroughdebut in the D12-30 but i do like a couple of 5lb claimer Faye Mcmanoman’s rides 2-00. Citron Major 22-1 and 4-30. Archive 22-1 , tiny ew’s and stuck them in a ew L15 with L5-15. Teepee Time 8-1 and C8-30. Watchman 22-1.

    martin whittle 30/06/20 12:07 PM Reply


  • Could not resist looking at the 18.00 Chepstow where Living On A Dream and Proclaimed run for the Ascot List runners….I do no think either of these will be winning…of the two Proclaimed may be in with a chance of placing but would not want to back it to find out. On pedigrees, at bigger prices, I think Rogue Nation would be in with a shout. At the top of the market Et Tu Brute and Merry Secret look the most likely to give the fav a run. Et Tu Brute was beaten 139 lengths as everything that could go wrong went wrong….the horse dwelt, was hampered, then the horse stumbled and the saddle slipped, so that run can be forgiven as the race itself is comparable to the Bodak Yellow race. A race to watch rather than be on but interesting non the less.

    silver 30/06/20 4:01 PM Reply


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