Daily Members Post: 27/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/26,11p, +17.2, +32.5 BFSP)

#1 – 2.40 Newm – Turjoman – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH/Coral) 10/1 (gen) 3rd

#2 – 3.35 Newc – Just Hubert – 1 point EW – 14/1 (1/5, 5p, gen) UP, i’ve no idea what that effort was, over after the first 1/2 furlong. Moving on. 

As of 17.30, 26/06. Write ups at bottom of post. 

 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Newcastle Sires

12.15 – Thomas Percy (20/1<) 25/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

 

Jim Crowley 

2.40 Newm – Turjoman 10/1 3rd

4.25 Newm – Turaath 25/1 UP 11/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

3.50 Newm – Glenties (2nd run since entering notebook) H4 (4 runners!) 4/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

Big race pointers…

3.35 Newcastle: Northumberland Plate Handicap 

Trainer Records

Those to have won race in last 12 renewals, with runners… 

  • Rainbow Dreamer (trainer 1/4,1p in race last 12) 5th
  • Magic Circle (1/15,3p) UP

Those who ‘could do better’ in last 12 renewals…

  • B Ellison: 0/14,1p
  • Mark Johnston: 0/22, 2p

‘Trends’ 

Nothing much to shout about here as yet, especially given this is just the 5th renewal since the flat track changed to AW.

However, in the last 4 years…  4/4 had never run at the track and 4/4 had been ridden by their jockey at least once (0/29, 4p had not) – that makes some logic given the tests over an extreme trip like this – knowing the horse is no bad thing. Small samples though and it is a unique season… however, just those two ‘trends’ leave…

  • Australis 2nd 
  • Caravan of Hope 1st 
  • Collide 3rd
  • Just Hubert UP!

3/4 had 2 or 3 career wins, which from that list is a positive for Australis. 3/4 had run over 16-18f maximum in their career, and that’s a positive for Just Hubert.

20 of the last 21 renewals won by horses that had run over 16f+ at least once in their career. Just Herbert is the only one of those four to have done so.

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Tips write ups…

Turjoman – one for the Jim Crowley angle here (from the research post earlier in the week – in the Free Reports & Systems tab). I thought he was worth chancing at 10s/11s in what looks an open G3 to my eyes. Maybe the old timer Limato will win it again but he has been better for the run in the past, although maybe fully tuned up this time. In any case, the selection is unexposed, the yard are in form as is Jim- i’ve assumed he had the choice of the two in this, which I found interesting enough. He drops from a G1 LTO to a G3 here and may well come on for the run. He also gets a 1st time visor – Roger is 5/24,7p when using those, and he’s successfully reached for 1st headgear on horses before in group races. The horse ran his best race in 1st blinkers last August, narrowly beaten in a G3 by Duke of Hazard, who’d go on to win a G2 after that. Bar his return at Ascot he’s yet to run a bad race. Given the headgear swap I think he’ll be here to run his race and he’s doesn’t have to find too much. He’s unexposed for his age. The visor may have a negative effect but the 1st blinkers gives me hope, as does Roger’s record, especially at the price. There’s a chance they race him up on the pace over this trip. You won’t want to be too far back at this track, but i’ll trust in Jim. He seemed overpriced and I thought he could cause a mild surprise, in what did seem an open G3 on paper. I should also add that Roger & Jim are 13/31, 20p, +7 when teaming up in the last year – i suspect most/nearly all are for Jim’s boss, but still solid enough.

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Just Hubert – I have used the ‘trends’ as some sort of guide and ‘way in’ to a race that maybe i’d usually just watch. The more I looked the more I couldn’t resist this one at his price. Based on the strength of his form last year he must have a 16f+ handicap in him this year off 89. Whether this will be too deep, we shall see. But he stays well and has run at Kempton so AW generally is fine, although of course he’s got to prove it at the course/on tapeta. But I get a price to find out. He ran ok on his return to turf but it was possibly soft enough for him and in any case I expect him to come on for it. This must have been pencilled in as an early target, and no afterthought. His form last season is solid – he ran an ok 5th in The Melrose at York which is a ‘hot race’ and as I write Fox Vardy has just franked it again. After that he stepped up to 16f at Musselburgh, in a C3. They went hard enough there, he was strong at the line and won it a shade cosily to my eyes. That was off 3lb lower. His soft ground run at Ascot can be ignored and he was outpaced around Chelmsford. I’ve no doubt he’s better handicapped than 89 over this trip+, just a case of when he shows it. The trainer’s son-in-law has been booked to ride and I suspect they’re all still on a high after Ascot. Martin rides Newcastle well and with any luck will have him in the right place. On all evidence I thought he looked a big price here.

Others of interest, at a price –  I will mention two… Rainbow Dreamer for the King/Hollie dream team (now 5/14,6p in the last year) – he stays and may go close at 9s or so – he is running off 107 and 10lb above the last time he ran/won a handicap, four starts back. He did run well on his return in a G3 and should run his race. I thought something may be better treated, at the weights, esp as he’s now 7. His progression has generally been in small fields but very well campaigned given the prize money. Rajinksy also shaped LTO as if worth a go over this far and I thought that Newbury handicap ‘could’ turn into a hot race. He’s the first to run from it and could be another interesting outsider at 14s. The selection has achieved more on paper to date though.

Obviously it’s competitive stuff but a few looked high in the weights and plenty do have stamina to prove, inc the fav. Many running over the trip for the first time. Some may well improve for it but i’ll stick with the selection, and keep everything crossed.

That’s all for Saturday.

GL with your fancies, Josh

 

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31 Comments

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  • Flat racing for Saturday looks pathetic Newcastle aside, mostly low class small field drivel you’d expect for a Monday. I guess trainers don’t want to run horses on the hard ground and hot and humid conditions. Can’t be much fun for those that like to hone their betting skills on a Saturday afternoon. Last Saturday was entertaining but I can’t see that being repeated this week.
    I find it slightly baffling considering all the time off but hey what do I know, nearer nothing than most in truth. System betting doesn’t discriminate though and always allows for other ways to pass the time of day rather than fretting over your equine investments. A perfect Saturday for systems I think or nothing at all!

    Chris Albin 26/06/20 6:38 PM Reply


  • No joy on Friday – both selections ran poorly.

    Not the greatest saturday I would agree. Some dutching doubles:

    2.40 Nkt, Mubtasim 9/2 and Vale Of Kent 9/2.
    3.35 Nc, Cosmelli 16/1 and Financial Conduct 66/1.

    bet 365 prices 9.30 PM Friday .

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 26/06/20 9:43 PM Reply


  • I like Cosmelli 16/1 e/w in the Northumberland Plate 3.35 – well weighted compared with 5th last year, has to go well GL

    James Barker 26/06/20 10:20 PM Reply


    • One place better this year, 4th

      James Barker 27/06/20 4:26 PM Reply


      • yep a decent run James – wasn’t much pace at all through that race I don’t think so could mark it up even further. Still, at least you had something to cheer!! I was tempted to change channel after 1/2 a furlong haha

        Josh 27/06/20 4:32 PM Reply


  • Got right into the racing 2moz, wasn’t expecting to

    Newcastle 1.50, want to take on the fav. Know you maybe should side with the unexposed as a rule but this young fav has quite a bit to find. if Brando runs his race then surely he’s to good for these being a good few pounds clear of the field and usually in better company. The AW a bit of a question.
    However it isn’t for Judicial and that is who iv backed at 13/2
    Thought he would come shorter than that, my old fav Major Jumbo won’t reverse form I don’t think, just think Judicial will come late and win

    2.25 put me off the fav seeing Megan Nicholls on. Claimer and not ridden the horse before I don’t like that
    Not gone through the race poss as much as I shud but a bit of a glance and most in there seem on a steady mark sort of levelled out maybe apart from Lahore. But the much more tempting ones for me were the big prices of Ornate, Encore D’or and even Caspian Prince. Ornate on last winning mark, Encore dor is ridiculously well Hcpd if you go of win here last year C+D. With Ornate in 2nd ( crazily I have just done a 1 pound reverse forecast as you never know!!)

    Ryan Mercer 27/06/20 12:25 AM Reply


    • You were spot on there Ryan… I do hope you had some small singles/EW on those two biggie old timers. Cracking afternoon for the older brigade.

      Josh 27/06/20 3:17 PM Reply


      • Yes only small bets 4 quid on Ornate and Encore and only 2 pound on Caspian but all on the exchange so got 38/1 which was nice!!!

        Ryan Mercer 27/06/20 6:16 PM Reply


  • A bit of speed, some competitive racing today I suppose (competitive might not be high quality!)

    12:15 Newcastle Tilsit
    13:30 Newmarket Breath Of Air
    14:05 Newmarket Ayr Harbour
    14:25 Newcastle Lahore
    14:25 Newcastle Magical Spirit
    14:40 Newmarket Happy Power
    14:50 Redcar Dawaaleeb
    15:15 Newmarket Volkan Star
    15:35 Newcastle Just Hubert
    15:50 Newmarket Glenties
    16:20 Lingfield Park Bungledupinblue
    16:20 Lingfield Park Emirati Dirham
    16:35 Redcar Van Gerwen
    17:00 Newmarket Al Qaqaa
    17:25 Lingfield Park Griggy
    19:30 Lingfield Park Subliminal
    20:00 Lingfield Park Noble Fox
    20:00 Lingfield Park Shifting Gold

    Nick Willis 27/06/20 7:39 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    No bet

    Remember a 5/1 winner pays the same at Newcastle AW as a 5/1 winner at Newmarket
    Colin

    cleafe 27/06/20 8:43 AM Reply


    • Not if you bet on course depending on where you live 🙂

      Chris Albin 27/06/20 8:52 AM Reply


    • My grandfather used to say that but he used 8/1. And it is true if you are taking a price or betting SP.

      Martin Colwell 27/06/20 10:23 AM Reply


  • Todays quickly, write ups later as prices on a few are going, one way or the other.

    14:40 Newmarket
    HAPPY POWER 1pt win 7/1 gen
    ON THE WARPATH 1pt win 7/1 gen

    13:50 Newcastle
    MAJOR JUMBO 1pt win 11/2 gen
    HARRYS BAR 1pt win 12/1 gen

    15:35 Newcastle
    CAERNWENNAN 1pt win 8/1 gen
    SMART CHAMPION 1pt win 8/1 gen

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    Stewart 27/06/20 9:05 AM Reply


    • I was just coming on here to write about the Plate, iv backed Josh’s just Hubert but those were the 2 I thought had the best chance of winning the race Stewart so il back both of those now defiantly

      Ryan Mercer 27/06/20 10:00 AM Reply


      • I do not like those at the top of the market in the Plate, but appreciate that there could be a group horse lurking as usual.

        Martin Colwell 27/06/20 10:26 AM Reply


        • Hmm, i do agree with you on that front – surely Caravan / Australis, running in C5>4>3 AW handicaps, are not group horses lurking! Not exactly been dossing up on the bridle. They’re progressive handicaps and open to more improvement this year, but do have stamina to prove. I thought they were worth taking on at the price but if they stay, they should be thereabouts – not too many in here with an unexposed profile.
          Anyway, a wide range of opinion outside of those two and with any luck someone on this page is right!
          Josh

          Josh 27/06/20 12:03 PM Reply


    • Think it’s one of those weird races this year, in that you could make a case for nearly everything in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised if the outsider of the lot, an ex group 3 horse wasn’t the one “lurking” with intent.

      Stewart Mcmillan 27/06/20 11:43 AM Reply


    • ON THE WARPATH
      His racing post rating, the speed figure he has, William Buick on board and the price has steered me onto this one, in my opinion I think he rides Newmarket better than anywhere else, again that`s open to debate and he will now no doubt have as I like to say a “Stinker!”. He is riding as good as ever and taking nothing away from Jim Crowley, he is in quite good form himself. So, there you have it, there to be shot down, but that is my reasoning.
      HAPPY POWER
      This one is really because he has started to drift, although it has started to come back in now and that is because this horse is trained by man of the moment Andrew Balding, after his two winners yesterday he is definitely on form and the fact this one has form on softish ground, if it comes up the soft side of good i think he`ll romp in here….we shall see how the weather is..
      MAJOR JUMBO
      Purely for the fact that this fella is ultra consistent and i can see his jockey save some and kick on is the main reason I have put this one up, the course is renowned in my view for horses that constantly do that, in any type of race, Withhold, doing it in the Northumberland plate the other year to name but one race where those tactics come into play.
      HARRYS BAR
      Thought he was interesting as speed figures and rating are favourable from my viewpoint, the price also I thought was a tad too big, jockey booking Tom Marqaund is an interesting booking and lets hope he can be as consistent as my other pinch MJ, we shall see again?
      CAERNWENNAN
      Now, he has been creeping up the ratings and I do think this may be his ceiling, but, also know that this was the race they the owners have aimed for after winning the runner up race last year, 2nd to my other selection and the reasoning is I think these having gotten used to the track will know what is expected of them.
      SMART CHAMPION
      So, Caernwennans conqueror has not really been raced that many times and to me looks like the previous winners Withhold and Who Dares wins in that he has been lightly raced and with not many miles on the clock, could be the one to be on, looking at that alone got me interested and the fact that the price drifted also peaked my interest, like a few on here i think there are holes galore in the front three in the betting, but, after that as I said it looks a free for all and if the outsider of the lot Sevenna Star goes in it wouldn`t surprise me, as he is an ex group 3 horse, shrapnel to follow…

      Stewart 27/06/20 1:39 PM Reply


  • 3.35 Newcastle – Collide 20/1 6 places
    5.55 Lingfield – Busby 12/1
    small e/w fancies

    Gina Collins 27/06/20 9:32 AM Reply


    • Well done with Collide Gina, ran a cracker and looked very very exciting at one stage. I appear to have focused on the wrong one from my ‘trends’ shortlist of 4, which included the first 3!! This game 🙂

      Josh 27/06/20 4:11 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners.
    12.45 Newcastle Inhaler
    16.20. Lingfield Bungledupinblue/Porfin/Trixie Mitskie/Identified

    Selections. 12.45 Newcastle Inhaler win only
    16.20 Lingfield Different Face win only / e/w saver Cliffcake

    12.45 Newcastle have not gone for any of the Ascot runners as I think Inhaler will win even though the horse ‘s run so far is below average on my figures. There is no each way option. Toussarok and Fayathaan
    should run well given their respective pedigrees, and of the two prefer Toussarok.

    16.20 Lingfield. Have gone for Inhaler even though the run was below average and carries a penalty…the quality of this race is poor and Cliffcake may well improve enough to give the selection most to do as Hannon does well here.

    Good lck with whatever you are backing today.

    fay

    16.20. Lingfield. Have not gone for any on the Ascot list runners as frankly do not think they are good enough…cue egg on face!…….I like the Yazaman form line which is better than anything that have had a run in my opinion…the challenge may come from Cliffcake as Hannon does ok with his 2yo here and though I have the horse behind in terms of speed with the selection do expect the horse to run into a place and at 7/1 represents a bit of value in my opinion.

    silver 27/06/20 10:22 AM Reply


    • Apologies for the double entry…..thick finger syndrome!

      silver 27/06/20 10:24 AM Reply


      • And obviously in the 12.45 Newcastle HAVE gone for the Ascot list runner!!

        silver 27/06/20 10:28 AM Reply


  • I used to love Plate Day and landed some tasty punts on the card over many years. Sadly, my methods do not work on AW racing so I have to leave it alone

    I have had one bet today which was a 50% of max bet each way on:

    14.40 Vale Of Kent at 7/1

    That has been smashed of the boards. However my enthusiasm has been “dampened” by the knowledge that the CoC put 18mm on the track since Tuesday then they’ve had rain overnight (around 6 to 8 mm).

    Rain on watered going creates false ground and I will be delighted just to get my cash back now.

    I hate watering in the summer. Rain is always likely, specially after dry spells and what is wrong with quick ground anyway? I know, I know… but what about us punters?

    I feel like I’ve had my pants pulled down.

    Richard 27/06/20 11:35 AM Reply


    • It is a tricky one Richard – I think plenty of ‘horsemen’ think they over-water these days, and get the balance wrong.
      I’d be surprised if Newmarket wasn’t quick – that 18mm would have maintained GF through the week – it has been baking down here and last nights rain will have only taken any sting out, if its had an impact at all. A drying wind no doubt also. When its very hot 10mm or so only maintains over a 24h period I think and stops it being jarring ground. Tricky, but agree they seem to be scared of proper GF which many are bred for and you have to trust the trainers on that score.
      We shall see what the times/jockeys report, you may well be spot on, but I suspect fast ground horses won’t have an excuse – unless it pours down again of course.
      Josh

      Josh 27/06/20 11:41 AM Reply


      • Rain on top of watered ground is different to ground that received the same amount of water through rain alone. False ground is difficult to race on, jockeys have told me (when I was an owner for 20+ years) that it’s like having a rug on a polished wooden floor

        I may get away with it today but I’ve been caught up before and will be again. what gets me is they know the weather is changeable, and storms are likely, but they still water. Pees me off.

        Richard 27/06/20 11:51 AM Reply


        • Yeah the weather and watering is pain but that’s the way it’s going to be from now on. Climate change is here and the weather will gradually become warmer and wetter in the years to come and more unpredictable. Sorry to all the climate change non -believers out there but you are just plain ignorant and stupid.

          Chris Albin 27/06/20 5:08 PM Reply


    • I think you have to take a balanced viewpoint, yes, the courses do sometimes over water and have heard that jockeys phrase of false ground, sometimes it`s the drainage etc, like i was saying the other day, they changed the drainage at Haydock years back, now, by that I mean they put a special type of sand in the ground that helps with the water drain, the only problem with it is that when the ground dries, it can go like a dustbowl and then like you say you get a different type of fast/ false ground, like wise when there is too much rain and it pools, it`s an odd one and unless you have a groundsman who keeps you informed and up to date with what he/she is doing with it and also the british weather doesn`t help, its a real awkward one, but, 50 plus non runners the other day for punters is a tough pill to swallow.

      Stewart 27/06/20 1:51 PM Reply


  • First race at HQ 2.79s slower than standard, loose top and nearer good than good to firm

    Pfft, will be like this all summer I bet

    CoC worries going will be too hard, waters early in the week, rain arrives friday / saturday, meetings run on good or slower. Ugh

    Richard 27/06/20 1:44 PM Reply


  • How about Chiricahua in the Irish Derby this evening to upset the O’Brien family’s monopoly of runners? Only horse not to have been out this season so could have any amount of improvement, hehehe…or not.

    Chris Albin 27/06/20 5:35 PM Reply


    • iv just watched the last race with Tiger Moth but did think out of the 2 I’d fancy Dawn Patrol so just had a 5er at 14s

      Ryan Mercer 27/06/20 6:19 PM Reply


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