2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
The Flat 2020
(2/22,9p, +21.6, +38 BFSP)
#1 – 2.25 Donc – Serenading – 1 point EW – 7/1 (1/5, 4p gen) UP, -2
#2 – 6.45 Curr – David Garrick – 1 point EW – 8/1 (1/5, 5p gen) 4th, +0.6
that’s all for today, as of 9am, write up at bottom of post…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
12.15 Donc – Kick On Kick On (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP
12.45 Donc – Mokaatil (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’ UP (needs 6f I think, will be interested when stepped back up, running into form there, close 4th)
3.55 Donc – Kaloor – (16/1<) H4 13/2 UP
4.50 Newm – Shauyra (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H2 5/2 UP (too keen)
4.50 Newm – Heart Of Soul (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’
5.05 Donc – Monjeni (9/1<) H2 4/1 2nd 15/2
5.05 Donc – Oi The Clubb Ois (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’
3.Other Micro Angles
7.15 Curr – Salsa 8/1
4.Horses to Follow
2.25 Donc – Serenading (1st run since entering notebook) H2 7/1 UP
1.30 Tipp – Turnpike Trip (1st run) 10/1 UP
6.45 Curr – David Garrick (1st run) 10/1 4th
7.15 Curr – Salsa (2nd run since tipped) 8/1
Tips write ups…
Serenading – entered my ‘notebook’ after her last start, based on sectional analysis which also flagged the winner, Ginger Max, who’d bolt up on his next start and was clearly very well handicapped – that was an impressive performance as the race was run evenly before the winner found a turn of pace – Serenading just lacked that turn of gear and may well have wanted a stronger pace to aim at. It was also her first start of the season and I suspect she’ll come on for it. The two who finished at the back that day have both since won also – so for the grade there were a few well handicapped horses lining up. I thought this bigger field may help and there’s 2 or 3 who may get on with it. She’s now running at a track where Fanshawe does well (16/82, 32p, +51 5 years all runners, 4/16, 6p in the last year) and the booking of Joe Fanning looked significant given he rode her at Beverley (when chasing home Montatham – who bolted up on his return this season off 87, and was a close 2nd to Dark Vision off 97 at Royal Ascot) and he does ride Donny well. On just her 3rd turf start there should be plenty more to come from this mark. They’ve been patient with her and with any luck she’ll build on that reappearance here. I thought 7s was overpriced in this line up. Two rare EW bets for me, but, as per some recent articles on Geegeez, when the maths are in your favour with EW terms that should be the way forward – and with an extra place here, in a 14 runner race, it looks the right move given my assessment of the oppo/depth of race. The runs of my selections at Ascot on the final day suggests that should have been the play then also, alas. That doesn’t mean i’ll go EW every time when such terms and something for me to ponder- including whether I bite the bullet and go 1/2 EW, but I always want 1 point on the win side esp on biggies. IF she runs her race, i’ll be disappointed if she’s not in the mix against this lot. She’s been dropped 1lb for running well, and should be better than this mark at some point given her overall form/profile.
The opposition… I thought it did concern the top 4 from what I could see, however they’ve all got minor questions also -Double Martini and Bertog shape as if 7f is a bare minimum. Maybe they’ll get away with it and they arrive fit and in form, and they should be doing their best work late. IF Florenza is A1 she will go very close. She loves it here and is now very well handicapped again. The fact she makes her seasonal return here would suggest she may be primed for a big effort and i do fear her given her course form (and at a higher class) and her mark. She will be going very close in a Donny handicap in the coming weeks, maybe today, but hopefully not! I suppose Dream World is entitled to run a big race also, but fitness is the unknown there really.
David Garrick – 5 places to play with here and I really will be shocked IF he runs his race and he’s not knocking on the door. He comes out of what is turning into a very hot race for the grade LTO. He ‘won’ his race, pulling away from the rest, but alas bumped into one. The winner would go up to 80 and win on his next start. The 5th has since bolted up off 68 also. The 7th and 12th have also won. His breeding and how he ran there suggests this stiff 8f may bring about more improvement also, and that was his first run of the season. He’s got experience of the track and shouldn’t be held up. He should be in a no excuses position and I thought 8s was fair. If he runs his race and there’s 5 better treated horses in this than him, i’ll be eyeing up my whisky collection again, although at least it will be late enough for a Friday! 🙂 In the end I’ve trusted my eyes, the form and the horse – if you were to go on various trainer stats, and that of the jockey, you’d probably avoid. In general they don’t make for pleasant reading but then in Ireland, when looking outside of the top 4-8 yards, esp on the flat, it’s generally slim pickings for the rest. The horse is fit, in form and the jockey knows him well. He also steps from a competitive 3YO Only handicap into a 3YO+, with the weight allowance.
I’ll mention Turnpike Trip who’s just been tipped by Andy Holding – I’ve had a small nibble at 10s for my ‘hot form eyes’ – it looks a very competitive G3 hurdle but he has to have a decent pot in him one day from this mark. Connections like a gamble and it may be when they feel he’s fully primed and in a less competitive race – they may have him A1 (has won fresh) and be going for it today. That Royal Bond form (the hottest G1 Novice hurdle run last season), and how he travelled at Ascot (in heavy, moved like a well handicapped one but didn’t pick up – the race hasn’t worked out well either) suggests to me he should be well handicapped from this mark, when returning to a handicap – his RPRs may suggest not though. We shall see, it wasn’t a race I wanted to dive in tipping wise, with even rustier jumps eyes, but he’ll probably bolt up now. He is unexposed and is one to keep an eye on. If its not today, it shouldn’t be long.
Salsa – i’ve had one last go at 8s for change, to get back my previous losses – but her time for winning was in 1st blinkers at 12s, when just finding a stable mate too good two starts back, the rider dropping his whip. However some niggles over her resolution and the horse that beat her there went 2nd in the G3 LTO- in theory she should have been closer. Maybe the effect of the blinkers have worn off. She now runs in a handicap for the first time and drops in trip. I expect an aggressive ride and she could try and make all. But she could fall in a hole again and isn’t one to trust or go mad over.
I did want to mention her so that I could flag AOB’s 1st time handicap stats, (courtesy of Geegeez) to note down for those of you who care for such things… At the Curragh he’s 8/24, 12p, +31 SP with 1st run in a handicap runners in last 5 years, and in the last 2 years ALL 1st handicap starters are 18/72, 36p, +40 SP. Oddly for me the market underestimates them, especially as they’ll all be very well bred and while not future stars, enough are clearly well handicapped having no doubt been highly tried or bumping into good’uns in maidens, often their stablemates no doubt. I would be mildly surprised if Salsa added to those stats, in what looks a competitive race, but you never know. I suspect she may be retired or sold soon.