Daily Members Post: 26/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/22,9p, +21.6, +38 BFSP)

#1 – 2.25 Donc – Serenading – 1 point EW – 7/1 (1/5, 4p gen) UP, -2

#2 – 6.45 Curr – David Garrick – 1 point EW – 8/1 (1/5, 5p gen) 4th, +0.6

that’s all for today, as of 9am, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

12.15 Donc – Kick On Kick On (9/1<) 12/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

12.45 Donc – Mokaatil (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’ UP (needs 6f I think, will be interested when stepped back up, running into form there, close 4th)

3.55 Donc – Kaloor – (16/1<) H4 13/2 UP

4.50 Newm – Shauyra (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H2 5/2 UP (too keen)

4.50 Newm – Heart Of Soul (9/1<)  12/1 ‘DNQ’

5.05 Donc – Monjeni (9/1<) H2 4/1 2nd 15/2

5.05 Donc – Oi The Clubb Ois (9/1<) 10/1 ‘DNQ’ 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

7.15 Curr – Salsa 8/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catcher

2.25 Donc – Serenading (1st run since entering notebook) H2 7/1 UP

Hot-Form

1.30 Tipp – Turnpike Trip (1st run) 10/1 UP

6.45 Curr – David Garrick (1st run) 10/1 4th 

Losing Tips

7.15 Curr – Salsa (2nd run since tipped) 8/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write ups…

Serenading – entered my ‘notebook’ after her last start, based on sectional analysis which also flagged the winner, Ginger Max, who’d bolt up on his next start and was clearly very well handicapped – that was an impressive performance as the race was run evenly before the winner found a turn of pace – Serenading just lacked that turn of gear and may well have wanted a stronger pace to aim at. It was also her first start of the season and I suspect she’ll come on for it. The two who finished at the back that day have both since won also – so for the grade there were a few well handicapped horses lining up.  I thought this bigger field may help and there’s 2 or 3 who may get on with it. She’s now running at a track where Fanshawe does well (16/82, 32p, +51 5 years all runners, 4/16, 6p in the last year) and the booking of Joe Fanning looked significant given he rode her at Beverley (when chasing home Montatham – who bolted up on his return this season off 87, and was a close 2nd to Dark Vision off 97 at Royal Ascot) and he does ride Donny well. On just her 3rd turf start there should be plenty more to come from this mark. They’ve been patient with her and with any luck she’ll build on that reappearance here. I thought 7s was overpriced in this line up. Two rare EW bets for me, but, as per some recent articles on Geegeez, when the maths are in your favour with EW terms that should be the way forward – and with an extra place here, in a 14 runner race, it looks the right move given my assessment of the oppo/depth of race. The runs of my selections at Ascot on the final day suggests that should have been the play then also, alas. That doesn’t mean i’ll go EW every time when such terms and something for me to ponder- including whether I bite the bullet and go 1/2 EW, but I always want 1 point on the win side esp on biggies.  IF she runs her race, i’ll be disappointed if she’s not in the mix against this lot. She’s been dropped 1lb for running well, and should be better than this mark at some point given her overall form/profile.

The opposition… I thought it did concern the top 4 from what I could see, however they’ve all got minor questions also -Double Martini and Bertog shape as if 7f is a bare minimum. Maybe they’ll get away with it and they arrive fit and in form, and they should be doing their best work late. IF Florenza is A1 she will go very close. She loves it here and is now very well handicapped again. The fact she makes her seasonal return here would suggest she may be primed for a big effort and i do fear her given her course form (and at a higher class) and her mark. She will be going very close in a Donny handicap in the coming weeks, maybe today, but hopefully not! I suppose Dream World is entitled to run a big race also, but fitness is the unknown there really.

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David Garrick – 5 places to play with here and I really will be shocked IF he runs his race and he’s not knocking on the door. He comes out of what is turning into a very hot race for the grade LTO. He ‘won’ his race, pulling away from the rest, but alas bumped into one. The winner would go up to 80 and win on his next start. The 5th has since bolted up off 68 also. The 7th and 12th have also won. His breeding and how he ran there suggests this stiff 8f may bring about more improvement also, and that was his first run of the season. He’s got experience of the track and shouldn’t be held up. He should be in a no excuses position and I thought 8s was fair. If he runs his race and there’s 5 better treated horses in this than him, i’ll be eyeing up my whisky collection again, although at least it will be late enough for a Friday! 🙂 In the end I’ve trusted my eyes, the form and the horse – if you were to go on various trainer stats, and that of the jockey, you’d probably avoid. In general they don’t make for pleasant reading but then in Ireland, when looking outside of the top 4-8 yards, esp on the flat, it’s generally slim pickings for the rest. The horse is fit, in form and the jockey knows him well. He also steps from a competitive 3YO Only handicap into a 3YO+, with the weight allowance.

Elsewhere…

I’ll mention Turnpike Trip who’s just been tipped by Andy Holding – I’ve had a small nibble at 10s for my ‘hot form eyes’ – it looks a very competitive G3 hurdle but he has to have a decent pot in him one day from this mark. Connections like a gamble and it may be when they feel he’s fully primed and in a less competitive race – they may have him A1 (has won fresh) and be going for it today. That Royal Bond form (the hottest G1 Novice hurdle run last season), and how he travelled at Ascot (in heavy, moved like a well handicapped one but didn’t pick up – the race hasn’t worked out well either) suggests to me he should be well handicapped from this mark, when returning to a handicap – his RPRs may suggest not though. We shall see, it wasn’t a race I wanted to dive in tipping wise, with even rustier jumps eyes, but he’ll probably bolt up now. He is unexposed and is one to keep an eye on. If its not today, it shouldn’t be long.

Salsa – i’ve had one last go at 8s for change, to get back my previous losses – but her time for winning was in 1st blinkers at 12s, when just finding a stable mate too good two starts back, the rider dropping his whip. However some niggles over her resolution and the horse that beat her there went 2nd in the G3 LTO- in theory she should have been closer. Maybe the effect of the blinkers have worn off. She now runs in a handicap for the first time and drops in trip. I expect an aggressive ride and she could try and make all. But she could fall in a hole again and isn’t one to trust or go mad over.

I did want to mention her so that I could flag AOB’s 1st time handicap stats, (courtesy of Geegeez) to note down for those of you who care for such things… At the Curragh he’s 8/24, 12p, +31 SP with 1st run in a handicap runners in last 5 years, and in the last 2 years ALL 1st handicap starters are 18/72, 36p, +40 SP.  Oddly for me the market underestimates them, especially as they’ll all be very well bred and while not future stars, enough are clearly well handicapped having no doubt been highly tried or bumping into good’uns in maidens, often their stablemates no doubt. I would be mildly surprised if Salsa added to those stats, in what looks a competitive race, but you never know. I suspect she may be retired or sold soon.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • No joy for me at Haydock on Thursday – my figures tell me it is not my type of track.

    I like Newmarket better, so on Friday I have two:

    1.10, Grisons 1 point each way at 15/2 BOG as I post. May be improving, good draw, prominent runner which should suit.
    2.45, Caspian Queen 1.5 points win at 7/2 BOG as I post. Blew the start last time out but ran on over this distance to just fail.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 25/06/20 9:32 PM Reply


    • Grisons in drifting like a barge, 14/1 and still going. Those who can get BOG are OK but anyone who goes in the night before can get stuffed on price. Another nail in the coffin of betting the night before if it needed more!
      bets to stick with BFSP in my opinion.

      Martin Colwell 26/06/20 10:45 AM Reply


  • Congratulations Josh. 30 years is a long wait but well deserved this year.
    Looking at Tipp 1.30 and this race wouldn’t be out of place at Cheltenham.
    Small Ew on Razoul after flat spin -2nd to turnpike trip last season. Good luck all.
    Pat

    Patrick Anthony Reilly 26/06/20 7:56 AM Reply


    • Thanks Pat, I doubt it will be that long until the next one! 🙂 And they’ve done it in the right way which is as pleasing – respectable net spend, player development, local lads in the team/squad, and its entertaining. And to do it at a time when one of leagues best ever teams is around. It is some operation from top to bottom, and more exciting times ahead.

      Hopefully I don’t regret not tipping Turnpike, but agree that looks a cracker of a hurdle – one to get the jumps juices flowing. Best of luck.

      Josh 26/06/20 11:14 AM Reply


  • I think there’s a good chance that racing at Donny will be over before any potential storms hit so iv’e come up with an ew L15 based on that.
    12-15. Free Love 20-1
    12-45. Canford Bay 14-1
    2-25. Dream World 12-1 4 places
    3-55. Big Country 25-1
    all bog, 4 x £1 ew singles and 10p ew L15
    also had 50p ew @40-1 on Brighton specialist Roy Rocket .
    I’ll go through the other cards later buts that’s it for now.

    Congrats to Liverpool on title win well deserved have been stand out team this season, i think your benefactors from last night will be back bigger and better next season so watch out.

    martin whittle 26/06/20 8:29 AM Reply


    • Gl Martin,
      oh for sure – but the competition is what makes it more worthwhile and enjoyable – City have been slightly off the pace this year, and we have been relentless – but keeping that up will be tough – if we drop off slight, City will be thereabouts again – as will Chelsea, maybe not next season but the one after I suspect, and United are slowly getting there. And there are others. We have to strengthen now, when on top. Anyway, on we go.

      Josh 26/06/20 11:21 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    12.15 Doncaster National Anthem
    5.05 Doncaster Monjeni
    1.10 Newmarket Han Solo Berger
    Colin

    cleafe 26/06/20 10:14 AM Reply


    • nice start thanks colin and nick 🙂 …… colin was right health and safety have shut down my bakery for the foreeable 🙂 …i am still looking and learning 🙂
      keep up the good work !! 🙂
      lgbster 🙂

      GEORGE B 26/06/20 12:25 PM Reply


      • What?!

        Mark Curtis 26/06/20 12:58 PM Reply


      • Seriously!!!??…..gonna miss the smell of freshly baked bread…..see you back on the sand?? ..all the best

        silver 26/06/20 4:30 PM Reply


  • Not put any speed figures on for a few days, still doing them just tied up with work:)

    12:15 Doncaster National Anthem
    13:10 Newmarket Line Of Reason
    13:40 Newmarket Adaay Dream
    14:25 Doncaster Kentuckyconnection
    14:45 Newmarket Wedding Date
    14:55 Doncaster Winter Thorn
    16:20 Newmarket Bodyline
    16:25 Lingfield Park Elhafei
    16:30 Doncaster Our Charlie Brown
    16:50 Newmarket Natty Night
    17:00 Lingfield Park Capla Spirit
    17:30 Lingfield Park Locket
    19:00 Lingfield Park Additional
    20:00 Lingfield Park In The Red

    Nick Willis 26/06/20 12:20 PM Reply


    • Good day on the speed today, some of the bigger priced ones ran well too giving some EW money for me. I even had a bonus win, had the 730 at Lingfield on the TV and my Mrs asked what I thought would win. I said Rodin had the best speed figures but over a different trip and at 10/1 it looked value. He appeared to outclass the others and my figures confirm a better rating over 6f and he came 4th in that race.

      There was a lot of poor racing on the turf at Lingfield tonight, horses winning by a country mile and not running that quickly so those in opposition with form figures next time of a place are worth opposing.

      I did think the opening stayers race will throw up plenty of winners at that grade soon. Blue Beirut off a mark of 46 could throw up a sequence in class 6 staying handicaps. The others will probably move up a grade very soon after winning races of this class and probably will be good enough in class 5.

      One thing I have noticed is there appears to be a lot of decent 3yos in class 6 this year and when the weight for age handicaps start appearing soon there may be a lot that are far superior to their exposed older rivals. I think there are quite a lot of class 5 and 6 4yo+ handicaps being won at below par times.

      Nick Willis 26/06/20 9:39 PM Reply


  • slow out the stalls today Ascot list runners:
    13.40 Nmkt Power On…no bet.

    Will have to be above average to beat the Dascombe runner and will have to stay over further…the Yarmouth Race the horse ran in is a hot race with The Lir Jet winning a group 2 at Ascot…Power on was 8 lengths behind The Lir Jet at Yarmouth…if the horse stays the 6f then he will beat Adaay Dream comfortably but have my doubts so no bet race…playing catch up today so back later as the other Ascot list runner is Gems Jewel in 1730. Lingfield so hope to check that out. Good lck with whatever you are backing today.

    silver 26/06/20 12:54 PM Reply


  • Serenading was not ridden as ‘expected’ to my eye.

    Chris 26/06/20 2:54 PM Reply


    • Hmm, maybe, but Joe Fanning looks like that most of the time to my eyes! – she had a think before going in the stalls, and if she’s got a bit of Blessed To Empress about her she probably needs to know who’s boss – and if that’s the case a stronger/more aggressive rider may be required. It was a naff run really – odd she ended up this side also. But yep price didn’t really move, she looked a picture pre race. Alas. I’d get her in a fillies handicap and try more aggressive tactics/ride, poss over 6, – maybe she holds something back but disappointing really given the quality of the oppo.

      Josh 26/06/20 3:08 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runner 17.30 Gems Jewel is a non runner. One of those days….bit like walking through mud today…back tomorrow.

    silver 26/06/20 4:26 PM Reply


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