Daily Members Post: 25/06/20 (complete)

Tips x2, Quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/21,8p, +22.6, +39 BFSP)

#1 – 1.45 Hayd – Staxton – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/WH) 17/2 (others) 

#2 – 4.50 Hayd – Dancing Poet – 1 point win – 6/1 (betfS/PP)  11/2 (bet365/WH) 2nd

that’s all for today, as of 08.54, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.45 Hayd – Staxton – (9/1<) 8/1

5.20 Hayd – Heart Of Soul (9/1<) H4 7/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catcher

4.35 Bath – Shoot To Kill (2nd run since entering notebook) 5/2 WON 4/1 SP

4.50 Hayd – The Dancing Poet (1st run) H3 5/1 2nd

Hot-Form

12.45 Hayd- Ned Pepper (2nd run) 13/2 UP 8/1

 

 

5.Other/Updates

Tips write up…

Staxton – he’s very well handicapped now having hit the high 90s/100 a few starts back and has raced in much deeper waters than this for most of his recent sprinting life. His return race had a median OR of 98, 91 today. I thought he ran well enough there, especially given nearly all of Tim’s seem to have needed the run. He raced with enthusiasm, and was probably a shade too keen, fading in the final furlong. The stalls are in the centre today and i’m not sure how far he’ll be from this nearside rail, but that’s an option. He should race prominently. Off a mark of 90 now i’m sure he’ll be going close in a lesser C2 at some point this season. It could be they’re preparing him for a return to Newcastle where he won last season, off 95.  But I thought it was interesting he was running at a course where he’s 2/2, from his Novice days. That could well be deliberate. The ground is drying out which is a slight niggle although yesterday’s times suggested there was some ease in the ground come the latter races – if it is proper Good to Firm all over come his race, I may be in trouble. But 9s just seemed big to my eyes. This is an easier C2 than many he’s raced in and on C2 6f sprinting form, arguably he sets the bar. He’s finished ahead of many in here at numerous times, as is the case with sprint handicaps.

Of the rest… well maybe i’ll regret getting involved in a race where you could make cases for a few. Early season form is always tricky to get a handle on in the sense many won’t be race fit, and winning distances ‘can’ be accentuated. Aljady has been best fresh in recent seasons and does have to prove he can build on his comfortable win LTO, now 5lb higher. Motgally does look progressive and that race LTO is working out well, the 3rd winning a race here yesterday in the quickest time (against standard) on the card. (Mountain Peak, maybe one to note – prob too short next time, but will add some context to any race he pitches up in). He is up in class and on a career high mark, but if the blinkers continue to work he could have more to come this season. A return to 6f looks ideal. I thought the market had those two about right. Celsius is in form but has to prove he stays 6f – he has shaped as if worth a return to this trip, but he still has to prove it, for a 5s shot – of course it may bring about more improvement. Kimifive is best over 7f but ran LTO as if a horse in form, stuck behind a wall of horses for the whole race. He will want them to go fast here, and i’m not sure they will. At Newmarke in 2018, Staxton beat him a neck, giving him 9lb. He receives 2 today. Barbill is interesting – he could have a decent season ahead in races like this – he is up against plenty of race fit rivals and I thought that may count against him today, but if he’s A1 he may not be far away.

I suppose the point is you could run this race 7 times and may get 7 different winners, as is the nature of races/horses like this. In that context I thought 9s was worth a go.

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Dancing Poet – this unexposed flat handicapper definitely has a pot or two in him on the level for Ellison, and this trip could be the key to unlocking it. He ran well on return LTO and I found it interesting they return here. He travelled well but got outpaced in the final 2f, responding to pressure and staying on. I’m convinced he will leave behind a mark of 71 at some point for his superb trainer. No doubt he will go back over hurdles at some point also. Proper fast would be a question for him and it could be that come this race, but it’s an unknown really. I’d rather pay to find out but maybe that’s something I need to improve on. Trainer/jockey are 5/26, 14p when teaming up in Flat handicaps over 12f to date. Ben is very good on/near the front end and hopefully he gets out, across and is ridden like he stays. SDS may take them along, but he should be in a no excuses postion.

The oppo… well GF would be a question for the fav also. There’s a few very well fancied ones in this card today, and he’s one – I wanted to take him on as it’s his first run here, and his Newmarket win may have been more impressive because the time of year, and many in behind may have needed it and/or didn’t get home. He also raced on the front end, which given the tailwinds at that meeting and the rails bias, was a big advantage. He’s up 5lb. Maybe it was just impressive but I thought Ellison’s could give him a fight and was a couple of points too big in this line up. The rest have a few questions to answer also.

Hopefully they run better than yesterday’s pair, who were both tailed off last and clearly didn’t give their running. I’m not sure i’ll trust Fellowe’s one again, (maybe 8f around Chelm, no pace on, weak race) but Roger’s just didn’t perform – niggled off the bend 4f, found little from 3f. He did race wide which didn’t help but wasn’t the reason for cutting out as he did. Whether he got upset/hot pre race I don’t know. The market suggested he’d need the run anyway, but still, abject. Maybe he has his own ideas on the game, but on paper, if ever confirming/building on his 2YO form, he should be very well handicapped. Another cliff edge looms into view…

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Looking ahead to the weekend – I’m not sure any real trends races of interest, although i’ll have a look at the big one from Newcastle, and whether any common themes since switched to the AW. I’ll post some trainer race pointers/runners at some point on Friday.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Grand National Liam Tredwell dies age 34
    Racing post website scroll down to find will now be 2 days ago.
    Claire Balding part of her tweet.
    I know how much IJF has supported him in recent years.
    IJF statement on behalf of his parents
    Liam was open about his mental health in the press and he also did his own ‘ Jockey Matters ‘ films.
    Well worth reading all the statement for it appears he had tremendous support let alone all the Doctors and medical staff, sadly do not know what more could have been done for Liam RIP Lad.
    Sadly Pat Eddery took his own life a few years ago depression, mental health issues and alcohol, at the time it was said he was at a loss over not race riding.
    Thoughts at this sad time to all our forces on the front line who sadly suffer mental health issues, and there are so many.
    Colin.

    1. Mental health is a cruel disease indeed, and while there is much support and its hard to know what more can be done, I suspect the industry will be pondering plenty, especially on the back of James Banks also.
      I did post a tribute of sorts on yesterday’s post, at the bottom, including a video of his greatest win in The Grand National, which is worth watching.
      I remember him fondly on many a Venetia chaser, racing them prominently, getting them jumping and strong in a finish. RIP.

      1. Yes saw it Josh and the comments from Stewart and Silver, and this prompted me to put up part of the IJF statement for Liam was open about his problems talking to the press,videos and all the racing world was behind him Venetia included cannot find the article but sure it was her who they thought he was on top of it for he was happy to be back in racing.
        Afraid the brain is very complex.
        Colin.

        1. Could not agree more that the brain is complex. I do not know what his particular circumstances are. I can only refer back to personal circumstances that I have encountered, from mis- diagnosis resulting in wrong medication ending with psychosis, hospitalisation and 10 wks to get a diagnosis, experimental medication…trust me the lack of help is real, the lack of resources are real, the lack of support mechanisms in society as a whole are real, the lack of appropriate social housing are real, the lack of financial support is real.
          Support mechanisms are so important and family and friends support is essential for recovery. What determines who recovers, or who is able to manage a mental welfare condition is ultimately unknown
          ………what is without question is there can never be enough support for those who felt as he did and such a tragedy for him, his family and friends.

    1. Hi Chris
      very good read and anything is worth a try, most ex jockeys and ex trainers can go racing any time and the racing world is a small family and they would know many people on course.
      Pat Eddery after retiring became a trainer so he had his stables horses and plenty of racing people around him, he missed that part race riding, and what a jockey he was.
      Colin

      1. Yes, I think the camaraderie of the weighing room is a huge factor that brings daily status, friendship and banter, re-inforced feelings of self worth together with doing a job that is widely valued (you’re in the papers every day).
        Most employees never get such bountiful and regular approval.

  2. What we can all do is make the effort to talk to those who may be vulnerable, despite not always showing any signs of depression. It is tough for young people these days, with the pressures of social media, high property prices and unemployment rearing its ugly head. I have four children in the vulnerable age groups and so need to be aware of such issues all the time. So let’s all be on our toes to help out.

    Onto horse racing. No joy on Wednesday, just one second.

    I am having a go at Haydock on Thursday:

    12.45, Ned Pepper; 1.45, Celcius; 2.15, Critical Time; 3.15, Jovial.

    Good luck Martin

    1. It is about to lesson.There is nobody who is able to lesson.Go doctor but doctor will not lesson doctor judge and create diagnosis .People are terribly lonely

  3. I see John Stimpson is back training and has his first runners at Leic.
    555 My Town Chicago
    655 Peruvian Summer
    The latter may be of interest with J Quinn aboard.

  4. Ascot list runners today are:
    13.15. Haydock Vedute
    17.40 Bath Wholelotafun/Velocistar.

    No bet races for me.

    13.15. Haydock. Verdute sets the std. Will the horse stay the extra furlong as clocked 57.56 secs behind Eye of Heaven at Nmkt? Eye of Heaven went down by 11 lengths behind The Lir Jet in a G2 at Ascot so has good form lines. I think Verdute will beat Fountain Cross on my projected figures but the extra furlong is a question mark. The Dascombe runner, Kodiac Brown Bear is interesting and the price ok..just a pity there is no e/w option with only 7 runners. No Bet.

    17.40 Bath. Do not like this race so again, no bet. Of the two Ascot list runners I do not rate them to place…familiar words!! My notes on Velocistar is that this horse will struggle to win, and of the two Wholelotafun may place but would want a bigger price than currently on offer as beaten 32 lengths over 6f at Wolvs on debut…the prices at the top end of the market offer no value, hence no bet for me.

    All the best with whatever you are betting today.

  5. ********************************************************************************
    THE RTP BAKERY (very) LTD.
    THE LGB OVEN READY DELIGHTS TODAY 😉
    ********************************************************************************
    12.45 H SINGING SHERIFF ( the non baked NED PEPPER is a bit hot as well 🙂 )
    2.00 F LUKE SHORT / PROTAGONIST ( both baked well 😉 )
    2.15 H CRITICAL TIME / KASER ( both baked well 😉 ) (TWO BLONDES e/w?)
    2.45 H MARTINS BRIG / NAT LOVE ( both baked well 😉 )
    4.50 H RIVER ICON ( has come out of the oven nicely 😉 )
    6.10 B THE NIGHT WATCH / WAR WHISPER ( both baked well 😉 )
    *******************************************************************************
    Never instructed / just oven proofed fancies / always e/w and /or bftbp ,kt 😉
    you know it makes sense 🙂
    Happy punting chaps n chappettes
    Every life matters !!!
    laterz
    mr lgb
    just off for a pizza the action !!
    big up to mc and his redundant aw posse !!! 🙂

    1. just for info purposes here the exact ovens they were in 🙂
      12.45 H SINGING SHERIFF = oven 2
      2.00 F LUKE SHORT = oven 2
      PROTAGONIST = oven 1 and 2
      2.15 H CRITICAL TIME = oven 2
      KASER = oven 1 and 2
      2.45 H MARTINS BRIG = oven 1 and 2
      NAT LOVE = oven 2
      4.50 H RIVER ICON = oven 2
      6.10 B THE NIGHT WATCH = oven 1
      WAR WHISPER = oven 1

      just saying lol .. i know silver thinks there is a funny taste from ovens 2 & 3 ? 🙂
      Oven 1 has been performing well lately 🙂

      afternoon …………..
      lgbster

  6. See Haydock have been up to there usual…either under, or, over watering the track. It used to be a big back in the early 90’s forever having meetings called off with the slightest bit of rain, they then put a really good draining system in and it is a little too good, which results in loads of non runners, they had it down as Good, good to soft last night…. 34 non runners at last count… shocking, for us punters, bookies will be rubbing there hands together, loads of R4..

      1. I think mathematically speaking at least Rule 4s are in the punters favour!
        Obv not from an assessment perspective etc. The times last night suggested it wasn’t quick, some races 2/3 seconds below standard.
        Tricky, I suppose in hindsight given the weather/heat they should have watered.
        I haven’t looked at todays times yet but good to firm is what it should be it safe.
        I suspect many declared on going with soft in and as soon as that went, they were entitled to pull out. I’m glad they did with Staxton, that saved me 1 point!

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