Daily Members Post: 24/06/20 (complete)

Tipsx2 + write up, Stats quals…

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/21,8p, +22.6, +39 BFSP)

#1 – 3.40 Hayd – Hexagon – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365) 17/2 (gen) UP 10/1

#2 – 7.25 Wind – Caen Na Coille – 1 point win – 11/1 (betfS/PP/BV) UP 6/1

 

That’s all for today, as of 8am, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.40 Hayd – Hexagon 17/2 UP 10/1

3.40 Hayd – Lucander (16/1<) H1 8/1 3rd 10/1

5.50 Hayd – Heart Reef (16/1<) H3 10/1

7.25 Wind – Caen Na Coille (14/1< guide) 11/1 UP 6/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

 

Tips write ups…

Hexagon – a 3YO Only handicap and on paper potentially a competitive one at that, however at the price I couldn’t get away from the form of the yard with two winners yesterday, now 5/20, 7p in the last 14 days. And I couldn’t get away from this one’s form, especially his 2nd and 3rd career starts. Assessing 2YO form is always tricky, and you never know if a horse has developed further into their 3YO year, but in those races he firstly chased home Positive, who’d get within 5L of Pinatubo at Goodwood before winning a G3. He returned at Ascot (now rated 113) and is one to keep an eye on this season, as the team adore him, esp Adam Kirby – they give the impression they think he’s got a big pot in him. His next start at Salisbury hasn’t worked out too badly either, with 12 subsequent winners to date  – Pyledriver won that, and got on the board at Ascot, rated 103 there. He had Dubai Souq behind him who hacked up on his final start of the season off 85. And behind him was Berlin Tango who this season won a G3 at Kempton and ran credibly at Ascot, rated 106. Following that race Hexagon won comfortably enough at Ffos Las, before a couple of ok efforts on the AW- the first of which was run at a crawl and didn’t suit (stayed on well under tender handling) and the latter he was giving away masses of weight, but still ran ok. They possibly made too much use of him there. He’d had a longs season for a 2YO by then. So, the form is there to suggest that he should leave a mark of 85 behind one day. Throw in natural development and the furthest he’s run over on grass, at a galloping track – and I can be hopeful he’s well handicapped. Trainer/Jockey are 6/16, 6p, +23 with their Flat/AW handicappers, aged 3, returning 60+ days off also. Charlton can ready them if he wants to.

I thought there was a chance he could just be better than this lot. Or certainly have more in hand than some of them today. But he is facing a few in form/fit rivals, and they’re obviously all unexposed to some degree.But 17/2 has lured me in and I didn’t think the fav looked bombproof at 11/4.

If he fails, i’ll obviously be hoping Lucanda wins for the stats below. Which he may do. His final two starts last season suggested he may want further than this 8f now, but if they go hard (i’m not sure they will) and he’s fit, he will stay on. He’s tough and there should be more to come this season, but maybe over 10f. The market may guide and he did run in some decent 2YO C2 handicaps when last seen and went up 5lb from his last start.

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Caen Na Coille – again the foundations are solid with this one and i’ve tried to keep it simple enough – she obviously hits my Fellowes’ handicap angle below,  he’s in form (4/17,8p last 14 days), she’s unexposed, down in class into a weaker race, she’ll likely come on for her last start (poor start, squeezed, keen, some headway 6f), Fellowes does well enough at the course and with horses he moves in trip. It also felt like a rather weak/open race to my eyes, where they all have some sort of question and I didn’t think anything was chucked in. There’s a chance she doesn’t stay but her mother won up to 1m4f and it ‘could’ bring about further improvement. There isn’t a scorching pace on paper either and if she can sit handy, then kick, that would help. She can be buzzy though and Stevie may try and settle her mid division, with cover. We shall see. In any case she’s 11s and there could be more to come this season, albeit at a mediocre level. 

The rest had questions although unsurprisingly the mounts of Murphy and Marquand are being well backed – the latter has an attitude question now and needs the visor to work, which it may do. Still a maiden. With more resolution in a finish she’d have won LTO. I wouldn’t want a short price but she may appreciate returning to 10f here and should be thereabouts. As should Pipes who’s Chepstow form last May was ok – and ok in the context of this race – i’m not sure anything else has achieved much more in this. But it’s her first start for Pipe and first since March. Pipe isn’t prolific enough on the flat (3/27 last 2 years) for me to want to be wading in at 3s personally but they are the right two at the top of the market. Tell William may go ok if settling better but also has stamina to prove. Given my overall thoughts on the race, it could be that an even bigger priced one goes well…

… and at a bigger price Zlatan could be the one -he’s exposed but this isn’t a great race and plenty of his old handicap form would be good enough, for his in form yard.

So, an open race I thought, one where the market may well guide. She looked a shade overpriced at 11s to my eyes.

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Note: a couple of new posts, which can be found in the ‘Free Reports & Systems’ tab above – one looking at Jim Crowley (qualifiers from all 3 micros will be posted in section 3 above) and another with x3 ”Hot Form’ horses – the first of which mentioned comes from a race which produced another winner today. No doubt i’ve picked the wrong one but the evidence suggests his current mark of 68 is very workable – whether he’s missed by the market early on, we shall see. 

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Truly awful news from our racing world on Tuesday, with the heart-breaking death of Liam Treadwell, aged just 34. Thoughts with all his family and friends. He was clearly much loved by his colleagues and as a jockey will be best remembered for winning The 2009 Grand National…

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. An 11/2 winner and 3 losers on Tuesday, but still a profit.

    Four for Wednesday:

    1.40 Haydock, Diamond Dougal;
    5.50 Haydock, Indigo Lake;
    5.55 Windsor, Our Oystercatcher;
    6.25 Windsor, Love Powerful.

    Good luck Martin

        1. Ah, i’d have chosen Neil Warnock! As he’s more likely to be elevated to higher divisions every now and then!!

          1. More comebacks than Frank Sinatra that man! When he does pass (if he is not immortal) they will have to nail the coffin lid down or he will end up back at Palace sometime.

          2. I wish he had gone to Hull instead of Middlesbrough – guaranteed to keep them up. Phil C

  2. ON THE BRIDLE

    1.40 Haydock Benny And The Jets
    4.10 Haydock The Met
    6.55 Windsor Ghepardo

    Fantastic the sun is out drying out the ground, oh no the clerk of the course has his wellies on and is that an hosepipe in his hand, I fear for he is jumping about with glee an a terrific smile on his face, don’t do it!
    Oh they will.
    Colin.

  3. Neil Warnock.
    For 3 seasons took my son to the blades for 3/4 matches very difficult for myself, anyway Warnock was the manager at the time.
    One Christmas went to the kids xmas party which lasted approx 3 hours they had a disco, food and towards the end 12 players sat around a U shape made by tables, anyway had bought a photo of Rob Hulse for him to sign sadly he was not one of the 12, anyway my son whent on for ages and in the end said to him you will have to ask Warnock to get Hulse’s autograph.
    Anyway Warnock was sat at the top of the U with 2 girls to one side of him, my son just 10 approached him and in a powerful voice shouted out WARNOCK, horrified for my son is so polite and well mannered even now at 23, Warnock had a puzzled look on his face so i asked are they your 2 daughters and we chatted about them, then he asked me whats the problem mentioned Hulse not there, so he told me to ring his secretary Donna and ask when the team will be at the training ground because xmas training was not normal routine days, well we went one day and my son met Rob Hulse.
    Warnock is a very nice all round family man, he certainly is a Dr Jekek and Mr Hyde regarding football.
    Colin.

  4. THE RTP BAKERY OF CHOICE
    ******************************************************************************
    OVEN 1 :
    4.10 HAYDOCK GLOBAL SPIRIT E/W BF/4TBP ( placings / jockey system)
    ******************************************************************************
    That’s all today folks .. all other recipes got ruined today !!
    Good luck one n all 🙂
    lgb

    1. I got loads of dough if anyone wants some 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      OVEN 1 …pings again !!!
      until tomoroww …….. possibly ?
      head baker boy lgb

  5. I have Lucander
    Data Protection 4.10 H
    Indigo Lake hope Havlin will not make any mistake
    Indigo Lake and Dawaaween 3.50 H double

  6. Ascot list runners…only one today Lothian 16.55 Windsor.

    Selections: Jazzio’s and Libertine Belle e/w.

    The boring bit follows.

    Quite a tricky little race. Of those that have run Onaraggatip is marginally faster than Lothian and Coco Bear on my figures. Very tight between Onaraggatip and Lothian with Coco Bear third in …the latter slightly below average. The betting reflects this. Of the unraced runners, Tanfantic and No Inquests are interesting along with Libertine Belle and Jazzi’o. Trainers Cox, Houghton and Williams do well with 2 yo here and would not be surprised if one of their runners won this. Personally, I have ruled out Coco Bear for the Houghton yard, even though trainer is 3-22 and + £19.33 for 2yo here.

    Cox runs, Jazzi’o and Williams runs Libertine Belle. Cox is 12 from 38 + £12.34 with his 2yo here and Williams is 4-12 with 2 yo olds here + £30.50 .Meehan runners are traditionally, better for a run though they can have first time out 2yo winners and the pedigree is gd so will omit that one as the trainer is 0-21 with 2 yo here. That leaves Jazzi’o, Libertine Belle and the rank outsider, No Inquests. Non Inquests trainer is 0-22 so that one is excluded. This leaves Jazzi’o and Libertine belle. Marquand’s ride is Ehrmann and he is 16-62 +£13.15 but the trainer is 0-7 with 2yo so will give that a miss.

    This leaves Onarraggatip with the trainer 0-3 so at the prices will give that a miss. Hence the conclusion in selecting Jazzio’s and Libertine Belle e/w.

    Good luck with whatever you bet today.

    1. Meehan’s runner worth following and Jazzio, having missed the break did well to finish 3rd so a bit of e/w but a small loss overall so not too mulch damage don. Disappointing with Libertine Belle but that’s racing

  7. Terrible news about Liam Treadwell, losing James Banks recently also, you never know what is eating away at someone and I believe talking, instead of the stiff upper lip does work, as they say a problem shared etc. We all like a gamble, a pint and a laugh and a joke, but, which one of the lads is suffering the most and not saying anything, there will be one within your group I can guarantee that.
    RIP Liam Treadwell. Sorry for being so sombre fellas, just speaking from experience….all the best and good luck, onwards and upwards!

    1. Its so sad- apparently he was good friends with James. But he’s a young family and everything, and was seemingly much loved. But clearly had his demons, which he’d spoken about previously. The help is there within the sport, but maybe the industry needs to change strategy to reach out etc. A horrible situation, but it is the biggest killer of men by some way I believe, and much work to do on that front. 🙁
      Josh

    2. No need for apologies Stewart have personal experience with those suffering with mental welfare issues and complexity of psychological and clinical issues, coupled with lack of awareness and lack of resources is tragic and Josh is right, much more work needs to be done to prevent untimely tragedies such as this.

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