Daily Members Post: 23/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/19,8p, +24.6, +41 BFSP)

None today 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot Form

7.10 Chep – Campari – (1st run) 5/2

 

5.Other/Updates

 

New Report/Post: A look at Jim Crowley…. READ HERE>>>

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Results Update

As of the end of week 3 since Flat racing resumed, and the stats content (section 2 + 3) looks as follows…

Trainer Profiles: 50 bets / 12 wins / 23 places (inc wins) / 24% win SR/ 46% w|p SR/ +22.12 (morn/non bog) / +18.15 BFSP

Other Micro Angles: 30 bets / 6 wins / 11 places (inc wins) / 20% sr/ 36% w|p SR/ +19.33 (morn/non bog) / +25.8 BFSP

So, the stats content is ticking along, as well as could have been hoped for I think.

The ‘Horses to Follow’ section has work to do – although primarily to provide more info/a way in etc and not relying on any stats research… 23 bets / 3 wins / 10 places (inc wins) / -11.25  . Plenty have placed/gone close though.

The ‘Do Not Qualify’ ‘DNQ’ horses…

Those stats above do not include the ‘DNQ’ horses, which indicate on morning odds the qualifier is bigger than the historic odds caps, evidenced in the Stats reports.

The ‘DNQ’ horses are… 3/13, 6p, +43, +43.5 BFSP

I’ve had the odd email asking/suggesting I should just remove any odds guide – whether this season is a strange one given the lack of on course bookmakers, no owners track side, changes to how SP is calculated etc I’ve no idea. Or connections having less of a grip on how ready their horses are, lacking confidence given the nature of races and how most of the oppo were making seasonal returns etc.  None of those 3 winners were backed into ‘qualifying range’ from their morning odds – which I have to use when recording results, as no method can be expected to be tracked through to the off time, as that’s not practical for any future systematic bettors.

As some context… there are 12 angles within the Trainer Profiles report that have an ‘odds cap’. In the research period (last 5 seasons) the total for those sent off above odds X…  645 bets / 13 wins /  108 places / -471 SP.

Obviously were there no odds caps on some of the angles, they wouldn’t have been included in the report and thus they wouldn’t have been posted anyway.

I share that info to use as you please, especially if backing any stats qualifiers systematically. Maybe the market is less of a guide for some trainers than it’s previously been, or they’ve just had a lucky run and the DNQs will have a big losing run now, or not. Who knows.

Given the historical research for some trainers, i’ll keep putting a ‘DNQ’ next to their name when appropriate but clearly they’re there for you to judge – I look at them all for potential ‘tipping’ purposes, but alas wasn’t close enough to the three big winners so far.

The three winners so far have been trained by Ralph Beckett, Ian Williams and George Scott. (who was 0/40,3p with those sent off bigger than 8s, before Sunday’s 18/1 winner)

Again, do with that info as you please.

Josh

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25 Comments

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  • Ascot Festival Races. Have gone back over the week to check the times of races to focus on those that ran in a time close to the Racing Post Median Times for the distances at the course. I do my own going figures and the races I have mentioned reflect this. I have left out some of the more problematical races that were described as soft going but when I did the figures for soft and gd to soft, the ground was nearer to good to soft in some of them. I have found that going descriptions are the most contentious and sometimes can be unreliable so have stuck to the more obvious that I consider to accurate.

    Hope the information helps in the coming season when following horses that ran well in those identified races. I have NOT included a list of horses to follow, just those races from Ascot that I consider horses should be noted.

    Tuesday 16th. June .
    13.15. Buckingham Palace Hdcp. 1.61 secs below RP median time
    13.50. Queen Anne G1 4yo+ 0.95 ”
    15.35. Kings Stand G1 3yo+ 1.86 ”

    Two other races to note 15.00 King Edward V11 G2 3yo +0.125 and 16.10 Duke of Cambridge 4yo plus +0.37 above median time.

    Wednesday 17th.
    13.15. Royal Hunt Cup Hdcp C2 3yo+ 0.66 secs below RP median time
    13.50 Hampton Court stakesG3 3yo 0.13 ”
    15.00 Prince of Wales G1 4 yo+ 0.36 ”
    15.35 Royal Hunt Cup C2hdcp 3yo+ 1.88 ”
    16.10 Windsor Castle Listed 2yo 0.04 ”

    Thursday 18th.
    14.25 Jersey Stakes G3 3yo 1.31 secs below RP median time
    Two races to note are the 13.15 Golden Gates Hdcp +0.726 above RP median and 15.00 Chesham Listed + 0.37 above RP median.

    Friday 19th.
    13.15. Palace of Holyroodhouse C2 Hdcp 3yo + 0.07 above RP median
    15.35 Commonwealth Cup G1 3yo +0.36 ”

    This was the day the ground was changing and soft and good to soft were in the going description therefore problematical.

    Saturday 20th.
    15.35. Diamond Jubilee Stakes G1 4yo+ 0.18 secs below RP median
    16.10 Wokingham C2 Hdcp 3yo + 0.11 ”

    12.40 Silver Wokingham C2 3to plus was .31 secs above RP median
    13.15 Queen Mary Stakes G2 Fillies 2yo was .18 secs above Rp median.

    The problem races were on Friday in 16.10 Queens Vase …if the going description is accurate then this was run 1.02 BELOW median and the 14.40 Duke of Edinburgh was 0.87 BELOW median.

    On Thursday 16.10 Britannia Stakes was either 2.58 secs BELOW RP median or .22 secs ABOVE RP median and 16.40 Sandringham was either 0.91 BELOW RP median or 1.89 secs ABOVE RP median….the truth may lay somewhere between the two sets of figures.

    The stand out figures are:
    Tuesday 13.15 Buckingham 1.61 below RP median so fast races
    Tuesday 15.35 Kings Stand 1.86 ”
    Wednes. 15.35 Royal Hunt 1.88 ”
    Thurs. 14.25 Jersey Stakes 1.31 ”

    Hopefully, this will prove useful over the coming season.

    silver 22/06/20 7:32 PM Reply


  • An 8/1 winner and two losers on Monday.

    Four for Tuesday:

    3.15 Beverley, Lightness;
    3.45 Beverley, Colony Queen;
    4.30 Navan, Aasleagh Fawn;
    8.55 Kempton, Camouflaged.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 22/06/20 8:18 PM Reply


    • The lesser race king reaches once more for his crown haha (that’s meant as compliment!) after I noted the result I went back to the geegeez cards with hindsight eyes… And looking at the heat map can see why you homed in on him, esp with record fresh and some of his form. Top work.

      Josh 22/06/20 8:23 PM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    5.55 Kempton Sepahi
    Colin

    cleafe 23/06/20 10:11 AM Reply


  • Just to clarify from yesterday as Elite was mentioned originally not by myself.

    Starting with a bank of £1000 = £10 per bet level stakes, from 1st January to 22nd June it is losing 22 points and June is proving to be a testing month, so there are 78 bets left out of the original starting bank 0f 100, and plenty of time for it to be in the black by 31st December.
    Surprised if after this disrupted season it will make 190 points profit which it did last year, but one never knows it may make even more.
    This is what I work on not drawdown or whatever, a starting bank of 100 and see what the profit is on 31st December.
    Tip Top in June is 30 points in profit, and from 1st Jan to 22nd June it is 67.5 in profit so the 2 methods are 45.5 points up in this trying year then add on ON THE BRIDLE June +26.9 from 1st Jan to 22nd June
    + 90.483 so total 3 methods that I use are + 135.983 up this year and they are all independantly recorded and proven.
    Had to clarify this Josh for that 48 drawdown on Elite is in my eyes not a true reflection of my service.
    All I have ever wanted to do over the past 3 years is help your members win against the bookmaker, and over that period of time they should have.
    All the best
    Colin.

    cleafe 23/06/20 10:53 AM Reply


    • Colin, what’s the link for Tip Top? Tried and failed to find it earlier. TIA.

      Chris 23/06/20 11:29 AM Reply


      • They’re all in one service now Chris, as can be found here… http://bit.ly/37johbH

        Josh

        Josh 23/06/20 11:40 AM Reply


        • Thanks, Josh.

          Chris 23/06/20 1:45 PM Reply


    • Do your figures include the subscription costs Colin?

      Chris Albin 23/06/20 1:06 PM Reply


      • Hi Chris,
        no they are not inclued in the figures, no tipster does this that i know of, and again the ones i checked out years ago would not send their results Henry Rix ex Pricewise did offer to send me a list of his winners,but not a list of his losers after a fit of laughing i did put the phone down, and my thoughts rymed with banker!!!
        2 proven winning services £60 for 3 month trial, I cannot be fairer than that for over the next 2 years wish to be known for totally honesty and having a large membership to beat the bookmakers, they should not have closed me down.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 23/06/20 2:16 PM Reply


        • I know you’re an honest man Colin, I wasn’t questioning that at all. Your tipping service is one of the best I’ve ever used.
          I’m not using it at the moment because I have a poor internet connection where I work and can’t always place the bets or read your emails but that’ll change later in the year when I move to another job.

          Chris Albin 23/06/20 5:28 PM Reply


          • Cheers Chris for that endorsement, know that you have been a member and have recieved your email from Sportsworld in the past regarding my honesty and not manipulating the prices for which thank you, no i was just spelling out my own aim of what i wish to achieve, have my old mojo and selling head back on and the negative of being closed down, have turned into a positive, fantasy world a 1000 members all hiting the bookies, they would have been better off letting me win my £30,000 a year.
            Let me know when you rejoin for have nothing to do with admin.
            Cheers
            Colin

            cleafe 23/06/20 6:14 PM Reply


  • My darts today

    1.oo Navan
    Elysium – 20/1 / Boasting – 20/1

    1.15 Beverley
    Dancinginthesand 10/1 / Not On Your Nellie 14/1

    2.15 Beverley
    Ralphy Boy Two 13/2 / Shoot To Win 10/1

    3.oo Navan
    Sable Camp 14/1 / Village Rock 20/1

    small e/w punts all

    Gina Collins 23/06/20 11:14 AM Reply


  • THESE ARE THE BAKERY FIGURES FOR JUNE 2020 COLIN 🙂
    ********************************************************************************
    OVEN 1 = 794 BETS 145 WINS 18.26% P/L SP = + £ 97.10 P/L BFSP = + £ 557.34
    ********************************************************************************
    OVEN 2 = 107 BETS 21 WINS 19.63 % P/L SP = + £ 21.51 P/L BFSP = + £ 38.45
    ********************************************************************************
    OVEN 3 = 235 BETS 38 WINS 16.17 % P/L SP = – £ 62.24 P/L BFSP = – £ 40.66
    ********************************************************************************
    Will sports world / direct … whoever take me on do you think ..lol 🙂
    keep having fun outdare …p.s. where are you mc ???? are you waiting for the autim sand to arrive old chap ?? ………… summer sand is suspect as per Oven 3 lol
    lgbster

    George B 23/06/20 12:14 PM Reply


    • Lots of ingredients there Georgie Boy, but plenty of sugar on top,
      well played sir

      maybe Greggs will take you on 🙂

      Sid 23/06/20 1:20 PM Reply


      • lol 😉 .. more like mothers pride ! 🙂

        George B 23/06/20 4:14 PM Reply


    • Let us know when you fire up Oven nos 1..!! All the best.

      silver 23/06/20 1:35 PM Reply


      • Impressive figures from Oven 1 GB 🙂 Yes, I won’t be posting AW bets on here until September, as happened last summer my results on the AW are poor. I’m still checking what you lot are up to and will post turf selections when I am confident they will not lead readers down the garden path 🙂

        Mark Curtis 23/06/20 4:03 PM Reply


      • don’t encourage me you will get your knuckles wrapped by the powwers to be !! 😉

        George B 23/06/20 4:14 PM Reply


    • Hi George,
      Very good figures and will have to take a closer look at George’s bakery, is oven 1 normally the most profitable, pleased that you have put your figures up, even though there are a lot of bets could well be worth a dabble, must admit because the ammount of bets not paid much attention in the past so this is the reason i ask for results and figures to be shown, it gives everyone an insight how profitable someone’s bets are.
      So the rumour is not true that you had a visit from enviromental health inspectors and they closed the bakery down.
      Good luck George keep your methods going, i used to be a master baker, True but the impression have now i am a charlatan master of nothing!!!
      All the best
      Colin.

      cleafe 23/06/20 4:48 PM Reply


      • thanks colin 🙂 .. i shall carry on regardless 😉
        keep up the good work yourself 🙂
        mr muscle at the ready and off we go again for another fun packed day ! 🙂
        cheers
        lgb 🙂

        George B 23/06/20 10:18 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners.
    16.55. Kempton Angels Will Rise
    17.10. Chepstow Weymouth Bay/Katie’s Kitten.

    16.55 Kempton is the interesting race as, on pedigree, there are some very nice horses. The two Varian runners need to be respected, both in terms of trainer and on pedigree, and as there are now only 7 runners each way not an option (not getting into the current debate regarding the validity, viability etc!).

    Angels Will Rise will have a decent chance as is above average and has run well against and has form with Ascot winners Happy Defence, Time scale and has form with Sacred who was 3/4 a length behind Companelle so cannot fault the form lines.
    The outsider is Emulate Rose and has a decent pedigree and may out run her odds.
    A race to watch rather than bet.

    The two runners at Chepstow I don’t think will be winning or placing. Gd lck with whatever you back today.

    silver 23/06/20 1:28 PM Reply


    • Well horses consistently make fools of you with both Katie’s Kitten and Weymouth Bay both placing and the latter at 80/1 at 5th of the odds equating to a 16/1 win and 2.4 return…not sure what that says about my judgement and not mentioning what it says about the each way debate!

      silver 23/06/20 5:19 PM Reply


  • Ascot list runners.
    16.55. Kempton Angels Will Rise
    17.10. Chepstow Weymouth Bay/Katie’s Kitten.

    16.55 Kempton is the interesting race as, on pedigree, there are some very nice horses. The two Varian runners need to be respected, both in terms of trainer and on pedigree, and as there are now only 7 runners each way not an option (not getting into the current debate regarding the validity, viability etc!).

    Angels Will Rise will have a decent chance as is above average and has run well against and has form with Ascot winners Happy Defence, Time scale and has form with Sacred who was 3/4 a length behind Companelle so cannot fault the form lines.
    The outsider is Emulate Rose and has a decent pedigree and may out run her odds.
    A race to watch rather than bet.

    The two runners at Chepstow I don’t think will be winning or placing. Gd lck with whatever you back today.

    silver 23/06/20 1:28 PM Reply


    • Double post…what’s going on..my computer on the lash!

      silver 23/06/20 1:30 PM Reply


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