Daily Members Post: 22/06/20 (complete)

Ascot ‘review’, Stats quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/19,8p, +24.6, +41 BFSP)

No tips today.

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.15 Thirsk – Gracious John (9/1<) 13/2 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None. 

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

4.50 Ayr – Bonds Boy – (1st run) H1 4/1 2nd, 7/1

 

5.Other/Updates

Royal Ascot results ‘review’ 

Sire Angles

All combined: 3/18, 3p, +1.3 BFSP

Trainers/Sires

John Gosden: 4/9, 5p, +12.6 BFSP

Mark Johnston: 0/2,0p, -2

Jockeys

Frankie Dettori: 6/21, 11p, +16.4 BFSP

Will Buick: 0/5,2p, -5

Danny Tudhope: All – 0/14,2p, -14 (x9, 28/1+, x5 50/1+)

Ryan Moore: 0/0

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As always with these big meeting reports/angles, the idea is to provide some interesting starting points, that hopefully help you and I land on a few winners. They did their job in the sense of highlighting winners with notable stars of the show… the Gosden Sires angle and that man Frankie. Anyway, if they helped you land on a winner and gave you something to cheer, they did their job and have given me more food for thought moving forwards on the flat (esp Festivals/Sires/Trainers).

It was a notable meeting for…

  • Roger Varian: 4/19, 10p, +9.6 BFSP
  • Alan King: 3/5, 4p, +76
  • Charlie Fellowes: 2/6, 2p, +47

 

I suspect when you have a year like they have, in the races they have, they’ll be trying to find similar horses/profiles/preps when next year rolls around. Their ability to prep one for a big target race, esp a handicap, should be absorbed, if it hasn’t been already. Given their flat strings, that’s quite a performance from the latter two. Charlie is clearly a trainer going places, esp when you throw in how he’s campaigned some horses abroad.

 

Big Race Trainer Pointers

Again, another set of ‘starting points’ and from the 7 handicaps highlighted they found 2 of the winners, at 32.45 and 19.99 BFSP.

In total they were 2/37, 5p, +17 BFSP – the idea isn’t to just back them all obviously, but again, any runners from trainers who’ve won said race previously are worth some attention. I’ll try to keep a better track of how these do through a season from now on. They helped at least one of you back Onassis which is what it’s all about. And indeed I think some of you had fun with the Gosden Sire qualifiers.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Ascot list runners:

    12.15. Thirsk. Imperial Butterfly…(Zoetic declared but now a non runner)
    13.40. Ayr .Internationaldream (only 4 runners in the race))

    Uninspiring stuff but after Ascot it is to be expected….have had a look at the 12.15 Thirsk and Alghada will be hard to beat and no surprise is currently joint fav with Hala Hala Hala. To put things in context with the Ascot list horse, Imperial Butterfly, the comparative adjusted times are as follows Alghada over 6f = 70.585 secs =38.25 mph. Imperial Butterfly ( what a beautiful name!) ran over 5 f at Newcastle on std/slow clocking 660.29 secs = 37.31 mph…Projected time over 6f I have her running that in 72.29 secs = 37.34 mph so on that basis has 1.705 secs or .91 mph to make up to equal Alghada’s run….my universal std time for 6f is 72.77 over 6f so Alghada is above average and Imperial Butterfly is average.

    Consequently, based on my figures the horses entered have to be above average to beat Alghada.

    Looking at pedigrees of the unraced horses Hala Hala Hala, Miss Nay Never, She’s So Nice and Glitterbox Girl are interesting, so not surprised they are at the top end of the market.

    Maybe a race just to watch…hope the above helps. All the best on a slow or non existent betting day.

  2. 13.40 Ayr..Internationaldream, the Ascot list horse, may well have the beating of the short priced fav Mershakel based on my figures…I have Internationaldream on projected figures for 6f to run this in 71.71 secs . Merhsakel has run the same distance in 73.29 secs which is below my average for the distance of 72.77 secs. In both cases have allowed for the differences in going. The eye catcher, on pedigree, is the unraced Summa Peto. Lovely pedigree and a USA bred horse so the firm ground will not be a problem, nor will the distance. Dalgleish does well with his 2 yo so may well be good enough to beat them both…only 4 runners though which is a pity…again a race to watch rather than bet.

    1. MERCI SILVER .. SUPERB 🙂
      1.40 A WINNER AND F/C ….buoyed by your comments .. keep up the good work 🙂

      1. Really appreciate the comment….have been fine tuning the methodology recently and as they say I love it when a plan comes together! The notes are reminders to myself! Glad it has proved profitable for you. All the best and looking forwards to more from the HRB oven!!!

    2. Notes on the above. 12.15 Thirsk run in a time of 71.75 less 1.2 secs for going adjustment = 70.55 secs so even though Alghada ran an above average race at Leicester this was not good enough for the above average run of the winner…the difference can only be attributed to the superior pedigree quality of the winner as Alghada ran above average again…Imperial Butterfly ran as expected in final time of 72.72 when the course difference is factored into the equation 72.29 was the prediction, the course factor is .5 so the final time should be 72.79 so projected so pretty close to this and confirms the original assessment that the horse is average compared with my std times.

      13.40. Confirmed the analysis with pleasing run from the newcomer Summa Peto. Meshakel is below average as indicated.

      On thing to note in future is include any course differences in the projections but overall a methodology that appears to work.

  3. Quite today so pass on if you do not recieve on course profit emails, they said that everytime they record EW bets they always find that win only is more profitable but it is the long losing runs that worry punters!

    Reason you need a bank!!! and this is the reason i do not back EW on any of my bets, recorded and checked this out years ago.
    Colin.

    1. I agree with you on the whole Colin, and that’s good info.

      Does the same still apply where bookies have extra places? Like last week many races had 6 places instead of 4, making ew more tempting.

      1. Hi Chris,
        My view is all EW betting should be avoided, having a mate over the years who has over 30 race course pitches and I have learn a little about bookmakers.
        Bookmakers do nothing for the punter or the offers etc is in the long term to extract more money out of you, and if you win a little they restrict or close your account, many more mugs coming through the ranks of football with their parents purchasing shirts with bookmakers logo’s on.
        Single bets are the ones that they do not relish, doubles, multiples etc all introduced by the bookmaker, wonder why, and when one pays out, then it is free advertising for them.
        Machines in bookmakers back in 1990 Arthur Whittaker, Derby bookmaker had his first slot machine installed and he said one day that machine makes him more money than the horses in a week!
        Colin.

  4. In terms of all things bookmakers, betting and EW betting, Russel Clarke’s 6 posts over at Geegeez are worth a read and cover everything with informed depth – https://www.geegeez.co.uk/author/russc2/

    I’ve generally been a win only punter for various reasons, but for some, even if they have a sufficient bank, such losing runs are not for them, which is fair enough. You have to take an approach that suits you and your mindset, and many will happily win less money/lower ROI long term, but for comfort of getting a return of sorts more often, and the bank going down less when the losing runs come. There’s no right or wrong on that score. When it comes to 1/5 5/6 places I believe the maths are strongly in the punter’s favour.

    Josh

  5. Josh,
    the past 3 years and yes i am including your good year, how many bets over the 3 years would have been placed remembering each time you are doubling the stake on each bet, whether some of the races went down to 6 places doubt the place part would have made a profit overall.
    Would be interesting to see if you are able to check, on your magic machine Ha Ha.
    Colin.

    1. I’m keeping proper track EW this season, but haven’t done so in the past and don’t have those figures to hand. I did look a couple of years ago and win only was the way forward.

      I don’t think the argument that you win more long term win only (and certainly ROI is higher) is in dispute but that argument is irrelevant if long losing runs have sucked the enjoyment out for you and thus you’re no longer betting etc. Having a decent sized bank isn’t the solution to all those concerns – some just do not like those long, -40-80-90 drawdowns – well no one does, but for many betting EW can make the trough less painful.

      You have to take an approach which is appropriate for you and which ensures you still here in a few years time. Having the right bank isn’t the silver bullet to that problem, for some it is, but not for all.

      Josh

      1. Josh. Bloody hell if i was having 80/90 losers think about packing the game up!!!
        The big prices are fantastic when one pops up, for me 3/1 to 14/1 are far more likely to win, Elite last year longest losing run 33, so my recommendation of 100 x stake for the bank is well in, and after this losing run you still had 67% of the bank left, so for me the bank is the most important part of betting.
        Colin.

        1. It’s not losers as such, it’s drawdown from the highest point to lowest point in any one period – there isn’t a tipping service I know, esp those that focus on big races regularly enough, that at some point in a 5 year period hasn’t had a 50-90 down swing – and you can have one, have a good little run, and then another one strikes. That’s the nature of the beast in certain race types, esp depending what your win % sr is.

          Elite for example is having a bad run isn’t it, from the results I can see on Sportsworld – a drawdown of -48 points from it’s high on 15th Feb through to yesterday, with just one winner. On the flip side Tip Top has been having a great time and as a portfolio it’s doing very well – but that’s the point – some people just won’t be happy with a -48 down swing, however big their bank. For some the solution is to half stakes and go EW etc – each to their own. Any successful long term approach that relies on backing will have some hefty troughs.
          I agree bank is one of most important, if not the most when it comes to betting/following an approach – but it is only one part of the picture when trying to get through down swings.

          Josh

  6. Elite will always have one losing run every year, that is why I included Tip Top bets with it, to conteract the losing runs of one against the other and to look after the subscribers because boy does it hurt me when they are losing their money on losing runs, along with my wallet getting thinner!!! backing them myself.
    No excuses after the break because as you say Tip Top is having a great time, so is On The Bridle, Victory waiting for July but it could be August, on hindsight maybe should have delayed Elite, but hey ho could be two 20/1 winners over the next two days as often happens with Elite.
    Colin.

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