Daily Members Post: 21/06/20 (complete)

Stats quals.

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/19,8p, +24.6, +41 BFSP)

None on Sunday. 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.45 Red – Harlow (9/1<)  18/1 ‘DNQ’ 3rd

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainers/Sires

5.15 Leop- Salsa (20/1< guide) 15/2 UP

Breeding/Sire Angles

5.15 Leop- Salsa (20/1< guide) 15/2 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

3.15 Red – True Blue Moon (1st run) 20/1 UP

Losing Tips 

5.15 Leop – Salsa (1st run) 15/2 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

*

 

[poll id=”30″]

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Martin the lion sleeps tonight, mind you thought they were asleep this afternoon!!!
    Sibley what a prospect from our acadamy 2nd full match hat trick and he also scored on his debut and only 18 years old.
    Derby should be in the Championship next season so if they are a decent price next season could well be worth a EW bet, for they have an abundance of young talent coming through, for myself this is what football should be about, and they have a proven manager in Cocu for devoloping young players, and the manager was the reason Rooney joined the club to learn coaching off him, he had plenty of offers from home and abroad.
    Colin.

    1. I did watch the game on ifollow. Derby were OK but no more and shaded the game. Sibley looked good but Millwall struggled badly to pick up his runs. Millwall lacked intensity and struggled to get going without the crowd pushing them on for more effort. A definite disadvantage for the home team.

      The home advantage seems to be a disadvantage for those teams who normally have an aggressive crowd behind them. I guess it may flip on its head and so be an advantage when your team plays away at such grounds.

      There is always next week.

  2. Well Ascot done and dusted but the Ascot list still going for those two year old nominations though the quality will probably drop off in the main…they did find Nando Parrado, along with many others…and if you had backed that one at 150/1, with 160 on the Ascot list you would not have been doing too bad!!…..anyway moving on, tomorrows list runners below:

    12.00. Wolvs Plum Run/Velocistar/Rooster
    12.30. Wolvs Snash
    13.15. Red. Baileys Breathless/Signora Princess/Rumaythah
    13.25. Kemp. Dream Chaser/Enduring
    13.45. Red. Ventura Mutiny/Saint Lawrence

    No analysis at the moment, will have a look later to see if there is anything worth posting.

      1. One more for the list is in 12.00 Wolvs. Gussy Mac…This ran 6th behind Eye of Heaven and behind Get It and Tactical on 4/6/20 in Nmkt Maiden that I mentioned re quality and looking at what Eye of Heaven, Tactical and Get It achieved at Ascot then there is no doubt the horse has a major chance and the current price of 5/6 reflects this but will probably go off shorter… I am NOT an odds on better, no matter the horse, especially at Wolvs and lower grade races, but if you are then 5/6 is a good price…would I advise backing this, personally no…but it is entirely your choice if you want to play…..unlike Stewart am not as fresh as a daisy!! Morning Stew, glad someone is on the ball this morning, obviously I am not as missed Gussy Mac off the list yesterday!.All the best

        1. 12.30 Wolvs. Holwah win only and Portelet Boy e/w (bookies offering 3 places)

          Amazing what you unearth when you dig into a race..take the 12.30 Wolvs for example….class 5 6f 20yds maiden stakes…you have Snash on the Ascot list which ran behind Saeiqa and Dark Lion at Nmkt 4/6 and those two ran behind the now famous or infamous Nando Perrado at Ascot so would be in with a shout…looking at the pedigrees,however, prefer Holwah and and Portelet Boy…..just a shame there are only seven runners. (Given the restrictions on entries and the number of horses in training, logically there should be no shortage of entries so 5, 6 and 7 runners in any race at the moment is beyond my comprehension…am I missing something?) Anyway if you can find a bookmaker that is offering 3 places then Holwah , and Portelet Boy worth a play against the fav.

          1. 13.25 Kempton. Looks on paper that Enduring will win with Dream Chaser contesting the places with Shine that light but no bet for me as there is no juice in the prices for what, I believe, are the likely winners and place prospects in this race even though there are 8 runners. Will pass on this for betting purposes as I do not like the race.

          2. Redcar 13.15 and 13.45 Redcar….former race now down to 7runners and 13.45 no betting races for me…just usual mediocre stuff with no value whatever though something has to win…in process of looking at the 14.40 at Leopardstown as that will be the final race I will look at

          3. Well got the 12.30 completely wrong…apologies if anyone followed me in….best ignore anything else I say today on that performance…..certainly not daisy fresh…

          4. Those runners on the Ascot list at the top of the market have done well to day with all these winning…the one exception was Baby Sham which went off fav but I did not include as I had on my notes that the” horse dwelt on debut at odds of 50/1 and may struggle to win” hence the exclusion if anyone was wondering.

            12.00 wolvs gussy mac
            12.30 wolvs Snash
            13.15. Red. Rumaythah
            13.25. Kemp Enduring
            13.45.Red St Lawrence

            Probably best to follow Ascot form for the 2 year olds as well as those that ran at Newmarket on 4th June for the rest of the season and combine these with the Ascot list, though the prices will probably be short, still promising though.

  3. Morning,

    Fresh as a daisy today….so, managed to get some extra studying in and wondered if that Charlatan of all charlatans Tom Segal had picked anything today and he has, so, always like a good battle and thought I`d take him on.
    To be fair, he gets that watered down these days due to pressures put on him from above to near enough tip in every race there is, which over the years I think have taken there toll on his ability to see the wood for the trees, shame really, because I know when he took over from Mel Collier, he did quite well at the Post, as he stuck to the guns of just picking in races that he felt “comfortable” in, something that I know people, myself included now, chant on here at a regular basis.
    15:15 Redcar
    TRUE MASON 1pt win 15/2 gen
    Has been running in some classier races than the one today, without any aplomb I will grant you, but, the sharpen up at Newcastle the other day will have woken this one up and drop down in class along with 1st time cheek-pieces to sharpen up even more, for me is value at 15/2.I always think the transition from 3-4 years old is as interesting as the “trained on” question from 2-3, horses are not machines and i think you only really see how good a horse is at 4 years old onward, just my opinion, so, there you go.
    CITRON MAJOR 1pt win 14/1 365 10/1 gen
    If you can grab some of the 14/1 with 365 for this one then snatch their hands off and I wouldn`t put you off backing each way, sure to make the frame, has handy form and the run lto should have blown the cobwebs away, dropped down a little in the ratings and this race I believe may have been set up for him and at 14/1 I was tempted in.

    As always, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  4. I wonder if results are going to go a bit strange soon like they did in the heatwave of 2018 if the forecast heatwave decides to stay for a while. Lots of small fields with horses running in less than ideal conditions if I remember correctly. The forecast suggests 30 degrees by the end of the week. I remember having a pretty fruitless betting couple of months back then along with many others, lets hope it doesn’t repeat this year eh.

    1. I don’t think that it will but I take your point. The horses will not like temperatures that hot.

      It will be important that they get the horses off quickly at the start and no messing around loading. tricky for two year old’s though. Perhaps look for upsets in those races?

  5. 2.25 Kempton 3 small darts thrown
    Twittering 25/1 / Jim n Tomic 28/1 / Trigger Happy 50/1

  6. ON THE BRIDLE

    12.15 Redcar Hello Girl
    2.35 Wolverhampton Mr Strutter
    3.35 Wolverhampton Gold Arch
    Colin

  7. I am glad to see the end of Royal Ascot and get back to the average stuff that I do better in.

    No tips today, day off.

    Handicaps – Whilst dog walking this morning I was contemplating any bets going into the final round of the golf in the U.S. . There are 21 players within three shots of the lead and it seemed like a big field handicap over seven furlongs! I could not work it out but I then thought about such a race and the impact of weight carried and horses that are rising in the weights.
    Horses are big and weigh a lot and so surely a few pounds extra makes no difference?? OK there may be a tipping point, but not so much for improving/younger horses? I think that you need to look at the horse’s ability to run in that class of race and whether it is suited to the course and what impact the draw has in big fields. So not that much focus on weight carried.

    What do you think?

    1. Martin
      a few lbs can make all the difference for that is the reason the handicapper gives them extra weight, to stop them winning and also the handicapper wishes them to dead heat in a race.
      Improving 3 yo’s and 4 yo’s can surprise the handicapper by keep improving even with the added weight and some improve by 2 stone.
      The older seasoned handicapper having reached its peak growing wise does have a limit what weight it can carry and win, that is why trainers try to bring the weight down by running the horse knowing it cannot win off the high mark, and once the handicapper drops it a few lbs to a weight it has won off before then it will have a chance to win again and the cycle will continue for the handicapper will put it up a few lbs for which it can not win off.
      Colin

    2. It’s a tricky one to weigh up Martin (pun intended)
      I bet purely to systems these days, well 99% of the time anyway so I don’t worry about weight or the other overthought quandary the draw. I do remember marking a horse down if it had consistently run poorly carrying a weight but it stopped there. I do believe it affects horses differently and not necessarily distance or going related so I think it’s something that is generally not worth spending too much time on. Two horses A & B rated the same could have different weight carrying thresholds so horse A could carry an extra 10lb but horse B could struggle with an extra 5lb. This is why it seems futile to overthink weight. As for draw, well a speedy starter and a smart jockey can overcome a bad draw. I never bet in fields over 20 anyway. System betting is so much easier to manage emotionally, I can watch a race with my selections in and not get excited or disappointed if they win or lose. I couldn’t do that if I spent a long time researching races and making a case for a bet on what I determined to be the winner. How am I going to know if my racing/betting brain is functioning properly? How am I going to know if a string of losers or winners is blurring my judgement? None of that is for me any more I’m afraid. Play the numbers. It’s a numbers game. I’ll have a bit of fun with some festivals or the odd Saturday if time or interest allows so I’m not 100% dull yet.

      1. I am just not sold on weight making that much difference in a handicap on decent ground. I do agree that some horses are more suited to carrying weight than others. It does split opinion and I cannot prove my thinking with evidence.

        1. Stay away from the rabbit holes Martin! So many factors affect each other on the day, some over looked and some over thought which could be why you’ll struggle to back up your thinking with evidence. I lay bricks, blocks and stone everyday, some days the same bricks, blocks and stone feel heavier than other days, some days they feel lighter.

  8. ON THE BRIDLE

    + 27.9 after todays winner unlike most charlatans i have the courage to have my results independentaly recorded so are proven.

    Said it before if you do not publish your results then you are losing, Pricewise does not win along with past Pricewise Henry Rix who will not send his results when requested.

    If i am classed as a charlatan then i wish to be honest and above board and as always wish to see everyone win and beat the bookmakers by proving the results.

    Victory racing may come back on 1st July or it may have to wait till August, when started putting them up from 14th February till 14th March + 36.66

    All the best

    Colin.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.