Daily Members Post: 20/06/20 (complete)

ALL tips x5 + write up, upd1 stats quals inc RA

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

*

1.Tips

The Flat 2020

(2/18,7p, +25.6, +42 BFSP)

12.40 Ascot

#1 – Count DOrsay – 1 point win – 23.00 (betfX) UP -over raced I think, but suspect they will drop back to 5f now, seemed to confirm he def doesn’t want 6f, or not stiff 6

#2 – Burmese Waltz 1 point win– 30.00 (betfX) 2nd – no complaints, ran her race, exciting run just bumped into one – who relished that drop back to 6f off a ferocious pace – I wasn’t sure he’d be quick enough but good bit of placement.

 

4.10 Ascot

#3 – Spanish City – 1 point win – 20.00 (betfX) 3rd, 16/1 – ran well, no excuse.

#4 – Angel Alexander – 1 point win – 23.00 (betfX) (20/1 gen bookies) UP, poor

 

7.55 Kempton

#5 – Rum Baba – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 3rd

 

That’s all for today, x5 tips, as of 09.56, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

12.40 Ascot – Nahaarr (13/2< guide) 9/1 3rd

12.40 Ascot – Aplomb (7/1< guide) 4/1 UP

12.40 Ascot – Blue Mist (any) 6/1 UP

2.15 Newm – Amazing News (8/1<) H3 16/1 ‘DNQ’ WON 18/1 

4.25 Newm – Volcanic Sky (10/1<) H4 6/1 2nd 6/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Breeding/Sires

1.15 Ascot – Scarlet Bear (20/1< guide) 100/1 UP

2.25 Ascot – Cloak Of Spirits (20/1< guide) H2 7/1 UP

Trainers/Sires

2.15 Newm – Lion Tower (any) 6/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye -Catchers 

12.40 Ascot – Aplomb (1st run) 4/1 UP

12.40 Ascot – Count Dorsay (1st run) H1 18/1 UP

12.40 Ascot – Nahaarr (1st run) 9/1 3rd

3.55 Newm – Union (1st run) H2 3/1 2nd

Losing Tips

7.55 Kemp – Rum Baba (1st run) 12/1

 

5.Other/Updates

ROYAL ASCOT QUALIFIERS: DAY 5

(From my report HERE>>>

Jockeys

12.40 – Burmese Waltz (25/1< guide)

1.15 – Campanelle W

1.50 – Existent / Creative Force

2.25 – Alpine Star W

3.00 – Palace Pier  W/ Pinatubo

3.35 – Sceptical

4.10 – Arecibo (25/1< guide)

 

Royal Ascot Trainer Pointers 

Handicaps Only…those to have won race in prev 12 renewals, with runners..

4.10 –

  • Bielsa / Hey Jonesy (trainer race record… 1/16,3p) WON 
  • Summerghand / Arecibo / Gulliver (1/18)
  • Spanish City (1/16)
  • Mr Lupton (1/19,4p) H4

*

Tips write ups…

12.40 –

Count DOrsay  – this horse has a decent sprint handicapping pot in him this season, i’ve no doubt about that. He’s got some decent form to his name already and made a pleasing return, probably needing it and possibly finding that ground fast enough. He ran better than plenty of Tim’s have on their seasonal return. The big question of course is the distance – there is a stamina concern, more of an unknown, and in the end I couldn’t resist the price to find out. It could be he’s one for 5f at York but he’s shaped a couple of times as if worth a go again and should be stronger this year. I also think the sustained pace may be middle to high, although working out if there is a bias is tricky, but as it dries out it could well be you need to be high again. Anyway, I thought he looked a lively outsider.

Burmese Waltz – a bit more of a stab here but she arrives fit and in form, having won well enough to my eyes LTO. That was after a long lay off so she may ‘bounce’ but she’s 20s, not 5s. She’s some smart form to her name when trained in Ireland, esp that Leop listed race which was deep enough, a couple of lengths of Iridessa, who’d go on to bag a couple of G1 for Joseph. I certainly think there’s much more to come from her and this stiff 6 could be up her street – she will appreciate the drying ground and a big field holds no fears. Again, she looks to be on the right side to my eyes but such statements can make you look silly. I also thought it was about time Danny T had a winner here this week, and at a price. She has more handicaps in her this season, maybe even a listed contest. Hopefully another lively outsider.

The dangers… well there’s a trio of ‘Trainer Profiles’ qualifiers above, and I have had a saver/nibble on Nahaar at 9s in case i’ve got him wrong. He was just getting too short for tipping purposes and if 12s+ I may have had a dilemma. I do think a strongly run 6f could be what he wants – he can over race, as he did LTO, which leaves him vulnerable near the end. He does need to prove he’s up to this level also- but I can see the case.

The other three look short enough to my eyes – Swindler is chucked in I suspect, but he may need to be from stall 2, and he’s a bit of a monkey – often having to be walked down to the start. He is talented and these connections know the time of day in these handicaps. But, 9/2 is looking short to me. As is 5s for Blue Mist who will be staying on, but hopefully too late in the day. It could be drying out too much for Aplomb, and young Tom is still learning how to ride this track I think, only 3/102 to date. But, it’s always competitive stuff of course and that’s prob more to do with who he rides for. Anyway, for a 5s shot in a race like this, the sort of stats i’ll ponder.

All four of those have better days ahead of them, and I wont be falling off my seat if any win, and win well – but it’s a game of price, and to my eyes they were short enough. Maybe i’m asking too much for the market to have got all 4 wrong, but time will tell.

*

4.10

Spanish City – another easy handicap to solve! This one is 7 but Roger could win with the stable cat this week it seems, and given the horse’s record fresh I can only think this has been his target for a while. He’s got some solid handicapping form to his name and usually runs his race. He’s on the right side, looks well enough handicapped to my eyes, and I thought he was solid. He will want a pace to aim at his side , which he should get, and he will be flying home late. With any luck delivered to perfection- I don’t think he likes being in front too long. He looked a few points too big in this line up.

Angel Alexander – as did Tom Dascombe’s gelding. That Ayr Gold Cup win was impressive enough off 4lb lower and suggested there could be more to come this season. It also suggested a stiff 6 may be right up his street. He should be in the right spot and I can dream of Richard K getting the fractions right up the nearside rail. He shouldn’t be far off the pace and hopefully is primed for today. He went very close in a French G3 at the back end of last season, beating up Tinto in the process. Things didn’t go great in Meydan but Tom thinks the ground may have been too firm for him. While he may want it softer here, it shouldn’t be an excuse. It will dry out but surely not to the firm side of good. Still, excuses at the ready!! But, he’s another who should have a decent race to his name this season.

The rest are a bit ‘meh’ to me – nothing else grabbed me at the prices – I looked long and hard at Arecibo – he’s hard to win with but has solid handicapping form to his name – I concluded he won’t stay in the final 1/2 as they climb to the line – he wants a strong run 5f or a flatter 6f I think. Now, I could have that wrong and he’s the one that would annoy me at the prices.

Bielsa is getting short which may tell it’s own story – but its his first run in 239 days, first run here, and Kevin Ryan is 0/55,17p here in the last 5 years. This is a strange year for trainer track stats, given the limited programme, but still. He’s 9/2. He can beat me at that price and if he’s a stakes horse in a handicap, so be it. He’s drawn low also, which i’ve a niggle over today. They do have Jacks Point to take them into the race, and if he gets loose low, may run another cracker just 4 days after his last. (cue all straight track winners being drawn low!) Summerghan will run his race and it may all drop right, but he often finds one too good. Nothing else was doing it for me at the prices.

*

7.55 Kempton –  Rum Baba – a losing tip from LTO when he may have done too much on the front and could well have needed it – or he hasn’t trained on and he’s got some issues now. Still, he should be able to race prominently even though out wide, is hopefully sharper for LTO and will race more efficiently here. He could improve for switching to the AW and he’s some decent novice form to his name which made me think he was well handicapped. The Fellowe’s team will be on a high and I wanted to have one more go at 8s – as much for the reasoning from LTO remains.  And that race is starting to work out ok.

*

Your first 30 days for just £1

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. Hi

    Loving the posts

    Have you got the qualifiers for Saturday?

    Trainers / Sires / jockeys report quals. been brill

    1. This is Saturdays post Richard 🙂 there are no Ascot sire/trainer sire qualifiers on Sat from what I could see in my HRB accounts.

      1. Yes I know it’s saturdays post

        I was looking for the qualifiers.

        Lord North and fanny logan were brilliant. i just had that feeling… 12s and 11s obtained!

        1. Well done Richard, I do enjoy reading about winners found/backed using the content to help. Yep sadly no Dubawi/Frankel/Sea The Stars progeny for Gosden today.

  2. Gina Collins

    Surprised that you are unable to get a Betfair exchange account for exchanges want winners for they make their money on commission on winning bets.
    When Paddy Power took over Betfair my PP account was already closed and it only took them 7 days to close my Befair Sportsbook account.
    I do back on Betfair exchange and i only pay 2 % rather than the 5 % this is why find it strange that you cannot use Betfair exchange.
    Try clicking on their exchange tag, try putting money into betfair and try placing a bet not going to say this will work if the lowest bet is still £2 then try putting this ammount in first.
    Colin.

    1. I can bet on the Betfair Exchange but not on the sportsbook, but that is because I got restricted on it.

      Who knows what goes on with these companies. I guess if you got restricted on Paddy Power then they may not want you on Betfair sportsbook. They should let someone on Exchange only though?

    2. Hi Colin,
      Yes I lost my betfair and paddy account the same week, they closed my account and I was unable to even log in, spoke to customer services to get the balance withdrawn to my account but they were unable to give me the reason as to why they closed my account. So now I can’t log in at all and if I try to sign up again I just get the generic message
      ‘ According to our records you either already have tried registering unsuccessfully or you already have an account with Betfair. We only allow one account per customer.’
      I guess I could give them a call again now it’s been a few years, I’ve got a bet365 account I can still use if needs be but I have no BOG on it,
      I think it’s the big prices I chase, bookies hate it 🙂

  3. Hope the feel good factor continues…great to see Josh rediscovering the enthusiasm…Ascot list has many runners today so will put them up first and try and assess the two Ascot 2yo races at 13.15 and 13.50 20 runners and 15 runners repectively later tonight and into romorrow.

    Ascot list:

    13.15. Ascot. Happy Romance/Sacred/Pelekai/Sardinia Sunset/Risque/Mamba Wamba/Scarlet Bear/Sparkling Perry/Wings of a Dove.

    13.40. Nmkt. Sky Angel/Star Cactus

    13.50. Ascot. Thunder of Niagara/Painless Potter/Saeiqa/Nando Parrado/Talbot/Existent/Creative Force/Science/Army of India/Igotatext/Dark Lion/Lauded.

    16.30. Ripon Velocistar.
    16.50. Kempton. Sarsaparilla/sense of Romance.

    Back later.

      1. Very kind words, thankyou……normally would put up the selection/s first but this so difficult as there are many variables so here is the analysis for the 13.15 Ascot.

        Very problematical, especially the two Wesley Ward runners as they have run at Gulf Stream in USA and there is no median course time by which to assess their performance so that comparisons with other horses not possible so more guesswork involved and what follows is their raw speed, regardless of going and not compared with any other course and distance which means no adjustments have been made for their speed. With this proviso is the speed, in miles per of the interesting horses has been the only way to try and make valid comparisons.

        Campanelle 40.42 (Raw speed)
        Royal Approval 40.00 (Raw Speed)
        Nurse Florence 39.44
        Sands Of Time 39.11
        More Beautiful 38.96
        Sacred 38.75
        Pelekai 38.28
        Mamba Wamba 38.23
        Risque 38.00

        The interesting horse is Nurse Florence because this horse was 1.75 lengths behind Yazaman at Yarmouth who came second to Tactical earlier this week at Ascot so that Yarmouth race is good, a fact I mentioned in a previous post this week…Nurse Florence dwelt on that occasion but was only beaten by that 1.75 lengths…what is more surprising, given the adjusted speed is the price today of 125/1…to me that is way too big and worth an each way punt based on the above figures, especially if you can get more places. Sands of Time at 20/1 is too big a price as well, given the figures, so a couple of good e/w options.

        As expected More Beautiful has good figures and is a worthy favourite. The raw figures of both the Ward runners were 1st and second in the same race at Gulfstream on turf on firm ground…the question is will they act on softer ground or gd to soft and do you want to pay to find out at the prices? I am not sure I do but would prefer Campanelle and at 5/1 at fifth of the odds may be get your stake back if placed…I would not totally discount, especially with Frankie on board.

        So, suggestions…. Win saver on More Beautiful. Two e/w options with 125/1 and 20/1 shots in the form of Nurse Florence and Sands of Time…and perhaps an e/w saver on Campenelle as it is Frankie at Ascot after all or just sit this one out and enjoy..

        1. 13.50 Ascot.
          Selections: Creative force e/w main selection .

          Talbot, currently at 11/1 e/w for the Meehan yard as his horses are generally better after the first run but this one won on debut over 5f on the AW at Lingfield and was described as keeping on strongly on std to slow…projected to run faster than Creative Force over 6f on my calculations but is unproven over 6f so would want a better price than 11/1 but should run well.

          Saeiqa and Choritzo are interesting , especially the latter at 66/1 and could hit the frame at a good price, especially if there are more places on offer…gd luck with whatever you are backing

          1. One last thought on the Ascot 13.50….Dark Lion may well run better and be a danger to Creative Force.

    1. Hey silver, did you have a bet on nando parrado at 150/1?
      Nonetheless, well done on the selection……..the biggest odds winner at as it ever!

  4. I’m hoping for a Holly Doyle repeat performance in the 4-10 really like the chances of Recon Mission at the weights, a few others at good prices :
    12-40. Embour
    4-40. It’s A Freebie
    New.
    2-15. National League
    4-25. All set to go
    Lovely end to the day today as well as Josh i had Scarlet Dragon from somewhere else so backed it twice 🙂

    1. I don’t know how near the ground is to being soft but it might be near enough to take a chance on Sands Of Mali in the 3-35

  5. I did congratulate Josh on Twitter for the 33/1 last race winner but he was on his sixth pint by then and so it may not have registered????

    The Lir Jet won for me on Friday, 6/1 > 9/2. 4 losers but no damage done.

    On to the final day at Ascot:

    12.40, Embour 16/1;
    1.50, Thunder OF Niagara 28/1;
    2.25, Sharing 13/2;
    3.35, The Tin Man 14/1.

    Good luck Martin.

    1. Ha, thanks Martin yep I did read it – turns out the beer I was drinking was 5.5% – i behaved myself, just about. Bright eyed this morning! 🙂

  6. Right Josh back down from the clouds to normal now
    Do see your points on Moore, I can’t agree with everything which I know you wudn’t want me to anyways, because to me he does constantly have horses too far back in the field, where you think if he’d of had his horse even 2 lengths further forward in a travelling field then that would have a huge impact considering how many he’s beat with 2nd by a nose or head. Remember thinking he constantly did it with Order of St George and was same with Sir Dragonet earlier this meeting. He’s obviously very good I’m sure I heard Hanson say he was the best judge of pace, which don’t agree with surely that’s Dettori with O.Murphy or Doyle’s close behind.

    But do notice and this signalled by your posts aswel- how many times he has a disappointing ride or one where you’d say he’s been unlucky but then the race after or his next ride of the day he replies with a winner. Thought maybe he’s getting a sense of what pace to go during the day with his rides figuring out where best to be travelling
    Wonder if there’s anything in that, something il try and keep an eye on
    Does put me off backing him sometimes when you know that most of the time he’s going to be back in a field and all the problems that can come with that
    That’s what I was saying to myself today anyways bit of a ramble

  7. Not sure how to follow yesterday’s success, try a stab at the Wokingham 4.10 Summerghand 8/1 being well backed, could go off fav GL

    1. Beaten a nose, v unlucky, would have won for sure if there had been any early pace near side, hey ho we move on, it’s been a good week ……..

  8. As with everything there are ups and downs and yesterday proved how good Josh is, as with everything though, you are only as good as your last profitable winner, but, must say because mine was a non runner I had a little each way on the two mentioned by Josh and thanks to that managed to pull myself back in the black, for that I`m grateful Josh, well done!
    Onto to today`s and again because of time I am unable to give the waffle for each will try and see what i can come up with later.
    12:40
    EMBOUR 1pt win 14/1 gen
    GOLDEN APPOLLO 1pt win 22/1 gen
    13:15
    CAMPANELLE 1pt win 7/1 gen
    SANDS OF TIME 1pt win 25/1 gen
    15:35
    HELLO YOUMAZAIN 1pt win 9/2 gen
    KHADEEM 1pt win 8/1 gen
    16:10
    HIGHLAND DRESS 1pt win 10/1 gen
    ARECIBO 1pt win 14/1 gen

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today. Onwards and Upwards.

  9. 300A Threat may have significant improvement to come at a mile, so is my EW choice.
    335A Dream of Dreams can take this after gelding after a narrow defeat last year.
    410 Recon Mission should improve for this stiff test – but all my other projections this week have been wrong 🙁
    440 Nate The Great has changed yards to one twice successful over CD and the oppos are not the best
    215N National League has a chance to show more upped to 7f
    All selections are EW bets
    May return for some evening action

      1. I did have success with Threat last season. I think that he may need a run to get going again first and against this opposition may struggle to win.

        1. My thoughts are that a mile at Ascot should be bang on for him, he’s behind Earthlight and Golden H at Nmkrt last run but they’re not going away from him just looks to me that at 6F he can’t get up to them but that in itself looks top form with how GH won yesterday
          The form is all over the place with some of these tho, trying to make sense of him, Royal Dornoch and Kameko all beating each other.
          But the Doncaster run RD can’t keep up with Threat at 7F and he isn’t stopping there he looks like he’s warming up so you’d be thinking he’s going to improve here
          Out to 14’s now tho so maybe your right it’s been a guessing game all week whether horses are tuned up for there first run

          I’d like to think a group1 here with this kind of pot horses are here ready surely

          1. Forgot aboutPalace Pier aswel. He could be anything
            Defo against Pinatubo anyways

  10. Glad Josh tipped Angel Alexander I thought 20’s big for him
    Really liked that run at Ayr and only 4lbs higher
    Think I’m just tuna have a few small bets today at decent odds
    In same race going to chance Mr Lupton. Seems to go well early season and off this current mark with a claimer on he surely goes close if on his game

  11. I think Nahaarr has a huge chance today and took 14/1 last night

    If you watch his last run he definitely blows up about a furlong out. Dropping back to 6f looks good

    had a recent run – looks a positive
    high draw
    doyle
    hopefully tries to make all which looks favoured

    6 places ew max bet for me

    1. So nearly for Josh with Burmese Waltz, thought he had it! Blast.

      my ew poke was never gonna be out of the frame and was hammered

      2nd and 3rd not too shabby and profit secured for the day as I already recovered more than my lay out

      1. Yep well done, you got a great price also – how annoying for us all! Never mind, that’s how they go. I was the one causing Deja backers pain yesterday with one coming from the clouds – I had a good look at winner but couldn’t see him being quick enough – but another reminder of how hard they can go in those Ascot 6f races, and extra stamina no bad thing – he had some solid form in the book – sadly his run wasn’t blocked haha.
        The Haggas horse must have races in him, I wonder if they will try a stiff 5f – but he has wins somewhere. Probably not quick enough for The Dash, but who knows.
        Blue Mist is chucked in also – blew the start, got no run when starting to motor – thats the game in those races but he will pick up something.

        Some track bias/jockey bias maybe, so need to be careful with the form – but race should work out ok i think.

  12. Hi Josh

    Been a great week at Ascot thanks for all your hard work the break seems to have been good for you I noticed you put 2nd for Volcanic Sky 4-25 Newm is it not classed as a winner as it was 1st passed the post I have been paid as a winner
    Peter

    1. Hi Peter…

      Thanks, yep it certainly did do me good, as well as the love etc. Happy with how the content is performing. I could have used my RA content better but always something to work on and I’ll review how those various starting points performed.

      Yep, most bookies will have paid out but I don’t think I can officially declare that. Those who played on betfair won’t have been paid and he technically lost.
      Annoying. But if he’d have stayed straight I suspect he’d have lost.
      Still, add it to your own private p/L!!
      Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.