Daily Members Post: 19/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(1/12,4p, -8)

4.40 Ascot 

#1 – Dubai Future – 1 point EW – 25/1 (WH) 20/1 (gen, 1/5, 5p)

#2 – Scarlet Dragon – 1 point EW – 33/1 (gen, 1/5, 5p)

that’s all for today, as of 09.01, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.15 Ascot – Art Power (9/1<) H3 2/1 WON 2/1 >7/4 

4.40 Ascot – Al Muffrih (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) 12/1

4.40 Ascout – Dal Horrisgle (12/1< guide) (x2 angles)

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

3.35 Ascot – Mums Tipple (10/1< guide) 16/1

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

ROYAL ASCOT QUALIFIERS: DAY 4

(From my report HERE>>>

Sire Angles

3.00  – Eagles By Day / Fanny Logan

4.40 – Al Muffrih / Dubai Future

Trainers/Sires

3.00 – Fanny Logan / Elarqam

Jockeys

1.15 – Band Practice (25/1< guide)

1.50 – Willabell / Bonne Vitesse (25/1< guide)

2.25 – Eye Of Heaven

3.00 – Fanny Logan / Eagles By Day (25/1< guide)

3.35 – Kimari / Royal Crusade / Pistoletto (25/1< guide)

4.10 – Nobel Prize

4.40 – West End Charmer H4

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Royal Ascot Trainer Pointers 

Handicaps Only…those to have won race in prev 12 renewals, with runners..

4.40 

  • West End Charmer (trainer race record… 3/20,5p) H4
  • El Misk (1/6,2p) H2
  • Le Don De Vie (2/5, 3p)

 

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Tips Write ups… 4.40…

I couldn’t resist a couple of EW stabs in this given the number of runners/5 places, but we are now down to 16 and if there’s one more non-runner i’m not sure what happens then – each bookie has different terms for such things, esp when having offered enhanced places – some will drop to standard 1/4 3 places, some to 4, some will stick. Anyway, hopefully that isn’t an issue but we all know there’s going to be 15 runners now!

Dubai Future – one for the Dubawi angle over 1m4 here, as the ‘way in’. I found it hard to leave him at his price, especially as Saeed is 0/6, 3 places (inc a 9-10 top weight going close) in the last 12 years in the race and with the non-runners his wide draw isn’t so bad. Those drawn ‘widest’ do just fine over this CD, although of course the start/first couple of furlongs are crucial. Hopefully he gets out and across in time, settled. He’s still unexposed and bar one duff run in Meydan, when he supposedly bled, he hasn’t run a bad race in his life as yet. He stays well and likes a scrap. He should keep going, if here to run his race. The ground is an unknown, as it is for many in here, but his sire’s stats would give you hope. Hopefully they don’t get much more rain and it’s dried out by this race but at the price I was happy to roll the dice. I suspect there’s more to come this season and he could have a nice pot in him, whether today or listed/G3, we shall see.

Scarlet Dragon – he wouldn’t be your standard profile for this race but then it isn’t a normal year and there are a few questions for those at the top of the market, to my eyes anyway. I couldn’t work out why he was 33s, but maybe i’ll find out soon enough. Alan King’s two Ascot runners this week have come 1st and 2nd. When teaming up with Hollie he’s 4/13,5p, +33 SP in the last year. And she’s 1/3,2p on this horse in handicaps. He will surely have been primed for this and he’s gone well fresh before, including in the Wolfreton of 2017 for his previous trainer, staying on into 6th over 10f, off 109. Clearly he’s not as good now but the course is no issue. It was only last August that he ran a cracker off 101 in a deep Glorious Goodwood C2 handicap, with horses rated 100-108 in and around him. More recently, in Jan at Wolvs, he didn’t run great but he was keen and I don’t think he stays 17f on the flat, but his penultimate start at Lingfield was ok – a decent run off 3lb higher, caught in a pocket and then running on, in a C2 that’s produced 4 winners since.  He may well get outpaced at some stage, but he should keep going – I just thought 33s was far too big in this line up, and IF he runs his race, i’ll be slightly disappointed if he’s not knocking on the places in this, and as others fold, he could take it with just 9-2 on his back. Good to soft is fine, a proper bog would be a niggle. But he’s 33s.

Of the rest…

Well Durston is the talking horse of the race – Jim being on has probably shortened his odds by a couple of points – two starts back he finished 2nd in a handicap off 88, and now races off 100, thanks to his 3rd LTO in a decent race. It’s also his first run in 307 days and Simcock is 0/20,4p since racing returned – some green shoots in recent days mind. The distance and ground are fine, and he’s only 4 – so I can see the case, but 9/2 seems short to me.

However, the others at the top have even more questions for me, at their prices. West End Charmer and Good Birthday both have stamina questions, and in this ground. They could improve for it, but i’m not so sure. Deja is obviously brittle but I suspect he’s A1 here and he will be fine on the ground/distance. But he’s 7lb above his last hncp win, in a C3. Medal Winner is interesting, thoroughly unexposed but stamina to prove and Archie is ‘only’ 11/138 in staying trips on the flat. El Misk is unexposed, the ground a question, but more an unknown. Le Don De Vie is another with stamina to prove, on his seasonal return.

I should mention Indianapolis who’s seemingly been tipped up everywhere, (inc pricewise and Andy Holding) – he does look solid – he’s fit, CD form and will relish conditions. He has some solid handicap form to his name and should run a decent race at 10s or so. Maybe he’s the answer.

I could go on – my point is it felt open to me and as if there could be an upset. A few in here may not get home, which shouldn’t be the excuse for mine.

Pace wise… West End Charmer should go forward, and it would help his supporters if he could go his own pace. Dolphin Vista usually gets on with it so with any luck they both go too hard! Frankie and Ryan Moore will track the pace I suspect. IF Duabi Future gets out, he could get across, with any luck after 2f is tucked in, 2 off rail in 5th/6th, but that may be asking too much! Scarlet will be further back but Hollie is rarely in the wrong place. I don’t think you will want to be near the back in this though.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

44 Comments

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  • Three seconds and a loser on Thursday. I did not fancy them much on a hard day.

    I like Fridays picks more:

    1.15 Ascot, Maystar 16/1;
    2.25 Ascot, The Lir Jet 6/1;
    3.00 Ascot, Anthony Van Dyck 3/1;
    3.35 Ascot, Mum’s Tipple 14/1;
    4.40 Ascot, Indianapolis 12/1.

    It’s a hard job finding winners at this meeting.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 18/06/20 9:03 PM Reply


  • looks a tough day tomorrow,
    my dart is
    3.oo – communique – 4o/1
    think I could do with more than the 3 places though!

    Gina Collins 18/06/20 11:01 PM Reply


    • 50/1 available Gina, either way I thought that was a big price ew. Fanning uncomplicated and think will have him up there and could try and steal it from the front possibly

      Ryan Mercer 18/06/20 11:58 PM Reply


      • Hi Ry, I’m very limited with bookmakers these day’s so no hope for the bigger price for me, agree Fanning is a positive for the bet, horse does have a lot to prove but for that price I’ll take a chance. Looking at the race again this morning I can’t rule out Fanny Logan, so I’ve had a nibble. I do like a few of Frankie’s other rides today too, Nobel Prize, El Misk, Kimari, so it’d be rude to not stick a small Heinz on them!

        Gina Collins 19/06/20 11:27 AM Reply


        • Frankie at Ascott !!
          Good luck

          Ryan 19/06/20 12:16 PM Reply


        • Hi Gina,
          If you are limited with bookmakers and you are going for the bigger prices, then for me you should back on Betfair exchange at SP, benefit you can place you bet early morning and on many occassions there can be a 10 point plus advantage by using Betfair exchange depending on the biggie.
          Colin

          cleafe 19/06/20 1:12 PM Reply


          • Thanks for advice Colin,
            My betfair account was one of the first to go so therefore can’t get an exchange account, all I’m left with is a skybet and BetVictor, think I’m on my last days with both too unfortunately.

            Gina Collins 19/06/20 2:58 PM Reply


            • Phew, glad I had another look this morning!

              Gina Collins 19/06/20 3:03 PM Reply


            • Hi Gina,
              Have you tried Betdaq or Smarkets?
              Just a thought
              Andy

              Andy Ness 19/06/20 3:49 PM Reply


  • Some thoughts for 2moz
    1.15 Band Practice a few lbs clear could this be an On the Bridle pick??
    Think Anthony v dyke will come out on top, with a run under belt to come on a bit and distance at this track should suit
    Commonwealth Cup think Lope Y the best horse in race, have backed Royal Lytham ew tho like the form with Shiskin last season coming well at the end on softer ground.
    And in the lucky last backed West end Charmer after impressing 2 weeks ago and only a penalty, at least know he’s come back in good form hopefully comes on a bit for run

    Ryan Mercer 19/06/20 12:06 AM Reply


  • I’m not a big fan of so called “plot” horses but it does seem that a substantial amount of money has been placed on Indianapolis in the 4-40, 33-1>12-1 and it doesn’t seem like stopping yet, not sure i would want to get involved unless it drifts back out when money starts to come for others in the morning , worth keeping an eye on.

    martin whittle 19/06/20 2:34 AM Reply


    • It’s a pricewise selection Martin.

      Jim Gilbert 19/06/20 6:48 AM Reply


    • I did get told about Indianapolis on Wednesday but forgot all about it until I saw it running today. I understand it to be considered to be a horse with potential, but he does need to show it this season.

      Martin Colwell 19/06/20 7:51 AM Reply


    • Intresting afraid my take on Indianapolis would not touch it with a barge pole, first of all only time it as run on ground worse than good was once at Leiceter where it won a 4 runner race on heavy, the 4th horse which was fav was 39 lengths behind it no doubt eased because probably did not handle the conditions.
      Pricewise another negative for me and this punt could be for the benefit of the bookies, who also know how to dish out benefits, and the bookmakers have brainwashed the punters over the years that Pricewise is to be feared, yet i recorded him for 2 years for which he lost both years, and if he was so good Racing Post would publish his results for which i have asked them to do in the past.
      It may win, but certainly i would not have a penny on it!!!
      Colin.

      cleafe 19/06/20 1:06 PM Reply


  • A loss of 5pts y’day, making -12.36 on the week. I agree with Martin.
    A sole bet today – to be a bookie’s bodice rippa (Denise Coates?)
    115 Flippa The Strippa takes a drop in class and these may be optimal conditions1 pt EW

    Chris 19/06/20 9:07 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Been a tough few days, workwise and picking winners at Royal Ascot, it`s a funny old game, but, watching Stradivarius trounce his field (albeit everyone said it was a less than average field, but, you can only beat what is in front of you and horses are not machines).
    Onto todays, unfortunately time means i cannot give the waffle, apologies.
    13:15
    NEVER DARK 1pt win 14/1 gen
    MIGHTY SPIRIT 1pt win 16/1 gen

    15:00
    MORANDO 1pt win 6/1
    DEFOE 1pt win 7/1

    15:35
    MUMS TIPPLE 1pt win 14/1 gen
    KIMARI 1pt win 7/1 365

    16:40
    GOOD BIRTHDAY 1pt win 10/1 365
    EL MISK 1pt win 11/1 365

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    Stewart 19/06/20 9:48 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    No bet

    Colin

    cleafe 19/06/20 10:08 AM Reply


  • I was really impressed with The Lir Jet, so take this at 5/1 against the fav 2.25, best win would be Hollie Doyle on Scarlet Dragon 28/1 in the lucky last 4.40 GL

    James Barker 19/06/20 11:08 AM Reply


    • You’ve talked me into another Hollie patent! 🙂

      Gina Collins 19/06/20 11:29 AM Reply


      • Trust in Hollie, what a ride weaving through the field, 33/1 BOOM!!

        James Barker 19/06/20 4:52 PM Reply


  • Ascot 1.50…first the horses on the Ascot list for this race:
    Willabell/Golden Melody/Mahale/Setarhe/Ventura Vision/Bonne Vitesse/Valpolicelle/Dandalla…a total of 8 so what will win the race?

    Selections: Dandalla/Mahale both e/w…

    Ventura Vision may well sneak a place but will need to improve after beaten at odds on at Chelmsford as is matched with Setarhe for the Varian stable which won this race with Daahyeh in 2019 after a prep run at Nmkt. Setarhe is following the same prep and was actually faster than this year’s entry so has to have a chance. As I have said previously those Nmkt maidens run this year on June 4 are quality and it is worth noting any 2yo horse that ran in them and runners have to be respected.

    When looking at this race last night the going was soft and Mahale was 14/1. The horse is now 17/2 and I did consider this at that price as, on my figures, is closely matched with Setarhe. At the current prices I do not consider this value, but at 14’s was worth an each way shot but not now, especially as the going has changed from soft to good to soft and may well change again to ride more on the good side if no rain….the vagaries of going changes!!

    Anyway, with the going changing is one of the reasons for opting for the selections above, the other re the prices and the expectation they will get the extra furlong…no guarantees on either reason…the deciding factor was the projected speed they may well run over the extra furlong which is faster, hypothetically speaking than any of the others…8/1 and 9/1 represent, for me, value against the shorter prices at the top of the market and Venura Vision is just too big to ignore but if extra places available, other than the 3, then worth a small e/w in my opinion…

    No doubt, may end up with egg on my face but trying to predict the outcome of a future event is never easy in any sphere…back with Ascot list runners a bit later as there are a few more running today..all the best

    silver 19/06/20 11:13 AM Reply


  • Ascot list horses:
    14.25 Ascot. Eye of Heaven/Andronicus Beau/Ventura Tormenta/Macho Pride/Nelson Gay.
    17.00. Ling. Mutazawwed
    18.05. Ling. Balavad.

    Re 14.25. Ascot. Difficult to oppose Eye of Heaven as I think this broke the track record at Nmkt..the ground may be a question mark if this becomes soft but a race to watch and take notes of future runners. All the best with whatever you are backing today.

    silver 19/06/20 11:54 AM Reply


  • On board with your tips Josh iv decided you’r guna hit the frame today done both ew
    i was looking at Dubai future myself last night
    Here’s hoping

    Ryan 19/06/20 12:26 PM Reply


    • cheers. you brave soul, Dubai appears to have lost a leg, relatively – Saeed’s RP quote was positive enough, to suggest he is here to run his race – we shall see. Could be the final nail in the EW coffin. What with 15 runners, they’ll obv both come 5th and 6th! (although some still paying 5p) Stamina won’t do for either whereas i’m sure a few won’t get this far. Fingers crossed.

      Josh 19/06/20 12:33 PM Reply


  • my 1/2 million bet, ITV7 plus accum 🙂
    Flying Aletha Race 1 – 13:50 Royal Ascot
    Productive Race 2 – 14:00 Newmarket
    The Lir Jet Race 3 – 14:25 Royal Ascot
    Morando Race 4 – 15:00 Royal Ascot
    Millisle Race 5 – 15:35 Royal Ascot
    Berkshire Rocco Race 6 – 16:10 Royal Ascot
    Indianapolis Race 7 – 16:40 Royal Ascot
    if they all come in i’ll be to rich to associate with the likes of you lot 🙂

    martin whittle 19/06/20 1:20 PM Reply


  • Just saw you’r last stat Josh
    Dont want to sound like a know it all because im far from it but that underlines SDS for me
    Seems when he has to ride a race to perfection for the horse to be at his best he struggles and like you’v said that normally comes in Grd1s
    But a straightforward from the front job he does get horses motoring
    Helps being on the good horses mind

    Ryan 19/06/20 1:36 PM Reply


    • Yep, tricky one – he is one of best from on or near the front, esp if smaller field, and on a turning track etc – his Class 1 record at Epsom for example, is more than fine. But yep, at Royal Ascot its woeful in C1s 1/102, which for a former Champion jockey is low- he wont bet getting on the horses that the other big name jockeys will be, but still, room for improvement. Whether he struggles to settle in bigger fields there, and/or goes for home too soon, esp longer distances, I don’t know. Or tactically not as astute when in a big big field. Who knows, but fascinating none the less. Still, pleased he got the job done for Trainer profiles, prob too short for many but they all count in the P/L column!

      Josh 19/06/20 1:44 PM Reply


  • Hollie deserves her %age :).
    And thank you too, Josh.

    Chris 19/06/20 4:44 PM Reply


  • Great pick Josh, well done to you. Holly gave it a brilliant ride, happy days!!

    Tom Murgatroyd 19/06/20 4:51 PM Reply


  • What a peach of a ride! And great tipping Josh, Jim and Silver (for the 2yo race). Team RTP seems very much to be back 🙂

    Mark Curtis 19/06/20 4:53 PM Reply


    • Thanks Mark…appreciate the comments and yes…RTP seems to be the place to be regarding contributions from everyone ……thanks to all who take the time and effort to post…makes a huge difference when trying to sift through the cards..

      silver 19/06/20 5:03 PM Reply


    • WELL SAID MR MC 🙂
      watching from a far today .. but brilliant work by all as is normal in rtp land ..silver on the pulse as well .. and my …that’s my Hollie by the way 😉 ….. i don’t vcare what mr marquand says !! 🙂 …… i mananged to back the “fanny” today as well .. dettori still slick in the saddle …really pleased for Josh … it is so hard sifting through everything to finalsie selections each day ..bravo josh .. much appreciated and well done 🙂
      cheers
      lgb 🙂

      George B 19/06/20 5:55 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    You clearly put a lot of research in to the last race at Ascot and it’s fantastic to see you come back after some tough times – persistence is omnipotent!! 🙂

    Neil Burton 19/06/20 4:54 PM Reply


  • What a pick Josh…many congrats…all the best!

    silver 19/06/20 4:59 PM Reply


  • Team RTP rule ok!!!

    Where’s my wheelbarrow?

    Cheers,

    Nige C 19/06/20 5:00 PM Reply


  • If anyone deserves a biggie it’s that Josh Wright character 🙂
    Well done sir, well done indeed. Wasn’t on it myself but managed to get Golden Horde with my only bet of the day which isn’t a patch on yours.

    Chris Albin 19/06/20 5:02 PM Reply


    • I’m reading that in a Brendan Rogers accent haha. Cheers pal. Much needed.

      Josh 19/06/20 5:28 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh, great pick. What a brilliant ride by Hollie. RTP back with a bang.

    Patrick Reilly 19/06/20 5:08 PM Reply


  • Reading your reasons persuaded me to have £5ew on. Only return I had on the day, cheers Josh

    Paul

    PAUL DUNKERLEY 19/06/20 5:08 PM Reply


  • Thanks gang, we needed that. I won’t get ahead of myself, he and hollie paid fit Cheltenham, the flat season to date and some change left over. Some way to go but my head is in a much better place than it has been at times in last 14 months. Those winners give you a buzz and boost the confidence. But we must build. Happy with the stats etc. Onwards

    Josh 19/06/20 5:24 PM Reply


    • Well done Josh

      Kevin 19/06/20 8:12 PM Reply


  • Brilliant Josh very much deserved !!!!

    Ryan Mercer 19/06/20 7:08 PM Reply


  • Many thanks for a juicy priced winner josh.

    william 19/06/20 7:18 PM Reply


  • Yes Josh brilliant pick today. Well done and thanks a lot.

    Hilary Roberts 19/06/20 10:24 PM Reply


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