Daily Members Post: 18/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(1/12,4p, -8)

Nothing today.  

The main stats are doing ‘ok’ – a 12/1 (16.5/1 BFSP) winner for Trainer Profiles on Wed taking ‘official qualifiers’ based on the ‘odds caps’  to 39 bets / 10 wins / 18p / +27.12 (morning/non bog) / +23.26 BFSP – a decent start for that approach and hopefully they keep going. They’re slowly proving themselves in live play. A busy day on Thursday though, but fingers crossed another winner or two below somewhere…

As an aside, Owen Burrows clearly knows what he’s doing with horses making handicap debut.. after that Ascot winner in the last two years now… 14/39, 18p, +30 SP

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2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.15 Ascot – Global Storm (12/1< guide, x3 angles)  H2 9/2 3rd

1.15 Ascot – Ya Hayati (7/1< guide, x2 angles) 25/1 UP

1.15 Ascot – Grand Rock (7/1< guide) H4 14/1 UP

2.05 Newm – Boy In The Bar (9/1<) 11/1 ‘DNQ’ (market may guide)

4.10 Ascot – Path Of Thunder (7/1< guide) 20/1 UP

4.40 Ascot – Wejdan (7/1< guide) 25/1

7.30 Red – Nkosikazi (13/2<) H1 2/1  WON 2/1 > 11/8 

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Sire/Breeding Angles

3.35 Ascot – Withhold (14/1<, guide) 50/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers

6.30 Red – Ginger Max (1st run) H1 11/4 WON 11/4>6/4 

8.00 Red – Make It Rain (1st run) H2 5/2 UP

Hot Form

1.15 Ascot – Yoshimi (1st run) 25/1 UP

 

5.Other/Updates

ROYAL ASCOT QUALIFIERS: DAY 3

(From my report HERE>>>

 

Sire Angles

1.15 – Tom Collins UP/ Ya Hayati UP

1.50 – Fox Tal Up / Prince Eiji UP

3.35 – Stradivarius WON 4/5

Trainers/Sires

3.35 – Stradivarius WON 4/5

Jockeys

1.50 – Crossed Baton UP

2.25 – King Leonidas UP

3.00 – Golden Flame UP

3.35 – Stradivarius WON 4/5

4.10 – Shared Belief (25/1< guide) UP

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Royal Ascot Trainer Pointers 

Handicaps Only…those to have won race in prev 12 renewals, with runners…

4.10 –

  • Starcat (trainer, 1/3,1p in race, 12 years) H1
  • Finest Sound (1/1)
  • Johan (1/15,5p) H2
  • Grove Ferry / All You wish (1/14,1p)
  • Great Ambassador (1/5,2p)

4.40 –

  • African Dream (1/16,4p)
  • Huboor (1/5,1p) H3
  • Separate (1/8,1p)
  • Onassis (1/1)

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Ascot Day 3

‘placepot pokes’ 

A bit of fun for change with one horse in each of the first six races – it looks a minefield of day to my rusty Ascot eyes, esp with the rain around, although a few strongly fancied near the top of the market. I’ve spent 15 minutes or so flicking through these, using the info above/trainers/jockeys ‘in form’ so far this week etc. 3 places in each race for placepot purposes due to international pooling, which makes it even harder than usual, esp the 4.10… hopefully my £2 isn’t down the drain after race 1… 

1.15 – Global Storm 9/2 3rd

1.50 – Fox Tal 3/1 UP

2.25 – King Leonidas 9/4 UP

3.00 – Modern News 10/3 UP

3.35 – Technician 7/2 UP

4.10 – Khaloosy 8/1 WON 8/1>9/2 

*

Best of luck, Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Ascot list runners:
    13.30. Nmkt. William Bligh
    15.00. Ascot. Modern News/Bright Devil
    16.50. Redcar. Isle of Lismore
    17.25. Redcar. London Palladium.

    Notes on Ascot list. Out of the 160 2 yo horses there are some that you may not be able to find on search engines:
    Light Refrain Haggas
    Fanciful Tale Charlie Appleby
    Fabrizio Charlie Appleby
    Bulls Aye Iain Jardine
    Peely Wally Keith Dalgleish
    Molhim Marcus Tregoning
    General Lee Paul Cole
    Wind Rider Paul George
    Pure Dreamer Richard Hannon

    Those that have been difficult to find and have entries:

    Peerless Ed Walker entered 18/7 Newbury
    Naamoos Mark Johnston entered 21/6 Wolvs and 22/6 Ayr.

    Hopefully be back with some analysis later.

    silver 17/06/20 7:45 PM Reply


  • Not so bad Wednesday – a 7/2 winner and places at 40/1 and 25/1, but 4 losers.

    Ascot picks for Thursday:

    1.15, Global Storm;
    1.50, Sir Dragonet;
    2.25, Monarch Of Egypt;
    4.40, Verboten.

    I don’t like much at 10/1 +.

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 17/06/20 8:12 PM Reply


    • Verboten in the 4.10 and not 4.40.

      Martin Colwell 17/06/20 8:21 PM Reply


      • They ran well, a biggie isn’t far away.

        As someone who’s never destined to get an EW stake, what approach do you have with yours Martin? Do you play EW, and if so any set price/place/no. Runner rules or do you go horse by horse? Or place bet exchanges, or just win only? Anyone else can chip in with their approach also! As I’m buggered if I’ll ever get an EW bet right.

        Josh 17/06/20 8:37 PM Reply


        • Well did not manage any analysis but couldn’t leave you hanging regarding e/w betting…personally not much for win only as I always look for horses that are 5/1 or more, away from the top of the market as you have to have a really good strike rate to play at short odds consistently …around 33% strike rate needed I reckon and I am just not that good…..between 10% and 15% is what I aim for and that is on a good day , hence the play at bigger prices so 5/1 plus prices where bookies pay 5th of the odds equals break even in 8 runner races or more up to a maximum of twelve runners or more runners if paying more places.

          If 1/4 of the odds slight profit gained….most bookies know this, that is why you get two or three fancied horses in a race below 5/1….they are not their to give you a chance to break even or let you make a small profit….they know that the top three in the market win around 75% of all races so the odds are definitely in their favour so finding value for each way bets is the way to go….I have bet each way as low as 9/4 on very few instances but they are rare…again if you are a professional you have to do this consistently to make money at those kind of prices and I do not have the financial resources or the strike rate that allows me to do that in a consistent manner.

          7 runner races, with only two places on offer are, as a general rule not for e/w plays unless you are pretty sure you know what is going to come second to a short priced fav….usually a weight for age race maiden where the fav is 8/11 with the second fav 8/1 or more…they do crop up as shorties get beat all the time and sometimes the 2nd or third fav have a good chance of coming second in 7 runner races at decent prices…at worst you lose but you get get a small return for the place and a bigger pay out if the horse you choose goes on to win…the best results I have had are in races where the 2nd fav is say 10/1 and beats the odds on fav…if you bet them win only and they lose then you miss out…but the trick is to calculate what will come second an third…..you can play forecasts this way as well….more an attitude of mind to ignore what is the conventional way of looking at races where the shorter prices reflect the better chance of winning.

          If you like, it is counter intuitive as we all get into the habit of equating shorter prices with an increased chance of winning …we see a horse at 33/1 or bigger and automatically think it has no chance, I try not to think about price but assess what chance I think the horse has of winning or placing in a race so bigger prices do not matter but they do put a lot of people off betting them because a lot of them are indeed donkeys and should be 1000/1 and not 33/1…so if you can consistently find bigger priced horses that you think have a chance of placing, even in 7 runner races or less, they are worth betting e/w for a small return rather win only and outright loss.

          That is why I like 2yo maidens, though a professional punter would probably think I am mad or stupid or both to bet on them, let alone think about punting e/w and they are probably right…whatever floats your boat and what you feel comfortable doing.

          Even if I had £10,000 to bet on 1.01 in running horse that was a “cert” to cross the line in front I would not place that bet as there is no such thing as a certainty and it would take you an awful long time( if ever) to recoup the losses if it got beat..and they think I am mad! I remember horses getting beaten by falling on the flat when there was no danger of another horse beating this front runner, or a horse in front jinking and unseating the jockey just before crossing the winning line in front and trading 1.01 with thousands being lost. In comparison, an e/w punt is relatively safe providing you can get on the right horse at a price you think is value…..happy punting

          silver 18/06/20 1:22 AM Reply


        • Josh, geegeez produced an interesting piece on ew betting, written by Russell Clarke, just the other day

          Sid 18/06/20 10:37 AM Reply


        • I bet win at Betfair SP and if I want to go each way I go to the bookies now that they are open again and get BOG. There are 7 bookies in Maidstone and so you can spread bets around and so it is worth the 3 mile drive in, as I know where to park for free. Otherwise i would go place Betfair SP.

          I can still get on with multiples and Bet365 and Coral. I am limited but they will let me win £100K on such bets, which I am happy with (biggest win so far £12K though).

          Martin Colwell 18/06/20 11:00 AM Reply


        • Case in point looking for value in each way races…in the Stradivarius race Mekong was 28/1 …and Betfair Sportsbook were paying 5 places and Withold was 40/1 at 5th the odds ….Mekong for 5 places returned at 9.5 i.e 8 and 1/2 to 1 so for value that was worth an e/w punt as was Withold returned at higher…given the quality of Strad and discounting the horse the offer represented value as they were going 5 places in an 8 runner race. William hill were offering 3 places so 2 extra places represents value if you thought both of these bigger priced horses would come 4th or 5th….at only three places on offer not value so have to shop around to find those extra places.

          silver 18/06/20 4:09 PM Reply


  • il back 2 horses 2moz I think
    Fox Tal in the 1.50, few points. Think he’s got the best form in the book with that group1 in open company end of last season, a repeat of that surely wins this race. And Balding has his horses fairly forward it seems with a good start to season. Not sure how good Sir Dragonet is Gina be this season. Maybe this is a fact finding mission for O’Brien.
    Think Dubai warrior could look a big price at 12s but think Fox Tal will win

    And I’m going to chance Nayef road ew in the Gold Cup. Seen Technician tipped by a few but don’t think Nayef rd should be 14/1. Think they both travelled very strong in the Leger
    Have just checked weather and I would leave Nayef rd if the ground went bad as I thought this the reason for disappointing at end of last season when not performing in group1 at Longchamp was heavy going
    Checking forecast now and it is for rain fairly constant

    Ryan Mercer 17/06/20 11:20 PM Reply


  • Final Song 2.25 A best speed
    Maybe Global Storm
    And Boy In The Bar N
    Could be more soft than good at A but ground will dry during the day probably

    Pab 18/06/20 2:21 AM Reply


    • Withhold and Odyssey Girl my longs hots
      Odyssey Girl first run on turf but had very successful AW campaign
      Most experienced horse in that company

      Pab 18/06/20 8:14 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE
    No bet
    Good winner yesterday Sir Busker and 2 losers
    June profit + 26.9
    Colin

    cleafe 18/06/20 9:33 AM Reply


    • Well done again Colin think i might give July a try with On the Bridle

      Ryan 18/06/20 10:23 AM Reply


    • Well done Colin, I have been following you in since the resumption.

      As a gift do you want me to ask Millwall to take it easy on Derby on Saturday? I can ask the Lions to stop when they have scored five?

      Martin Colwell 18/06/20 11:03 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin,
        have you tried stand up comedy for on this dire weather wise day you certainly have given me a good laugh!!!
        Bonus for Millwall, Bennett cannot play the prolific goal scorer which he is not, great shame for he his a local Deryshire lad, what Rowett sees in him god knows his level is non league.
        Are you able to see the match if not Derby have their own tv channel and i believe you can subscribe for one game, look out for the acadamy players who are outstanding and learning their trade off Rooney who says Max Bird reminds him of himself when aged 19, Sibley and Knight also have bright futures.
        Come on Ewe Rams
        Colin

        cleafe 18/06/20 11:41 AM Reply


        • I can see matches on ifollow Colin.

          No crowd at home games will be a disadvantage to Millwall. Rooney would have got some stick.

          Bennett got fit in March and he was being played on the left wing and doing well. He made two goals when we beat Forest 3-0 at their place.

          Millwall are two points off the play offs and so have to go for it.

          Martin Colwell 18/06/20 11:47 AM Reply


  • Big prices again today:
    150 Walkinthesand has a soft going set of genes and stays this trip well; ignoring run 11/9 as 2nd outing within 4 days
    225 Ventura Lightning will love today’s conditions and expected to stay.
    335 Mekong has an ideal race before him and rates a strong EW bet as fav v. poor value.
    410 Glasvegas, down from Scotland, loves soft and needs the trip on my reading of his pedigree. One to play late.
    440 Dubai Love was heavily backed from late afternoon against the fav. on the prospect of rain. Sorry about the short price.
    Scraped a 1.25pt profit thanks to a 33/1 fifth and a NR, so -7.36 this week

    Chris 18/06/20 11:25 AM Reply


    • Just to confirm these are all EW bets as I didn’t explicitly state that.

      Chris 18/06/20 12:39 PM Reply


  • ********************************************************************************
    THE RTP CHATTY VILLAGE BAKERY = OFFERINGS OF THE DAY
    ********************************************************************************
    4.25 Newm TRINITY GIRL ( fav / class system)
    6.00 Redcar TRUE HERO ( trainer / form system) e/w bakers nap oda day
    6.00 Redcar MR ORANGE (sneaky feeling this fella will be running on late)
    8.00 Redcar CAPLA CUBISTE ( trainer / sire / track system) e/w
    ********************************************************************************
    To say Ascot has blown my ovens up is an understatement 🙁 tricky tricky day!)
    Could be a trappy day all round !

    B.RGDS
    lgb/head baker 🙂

    George B 18/06/20 11:43 AM Reply


  • A day to watch rather than punt…..looked at Ascot and Nmkt but do not like the cards so watching brief today…thanks Sid for the shout about betting article on geegeez..very interesting…that is what is great about this blog, peo[le willing to share info…all the best if playing today

    silver 18/06/20 12:25 PM Reply


  • the big e/w doughnuts that first came out of the systens oven that eventually crashed and burned after many hours deliberation .. but worth a look just for admiration purposes anyway 😉
    1.15 ascot = cepheus / ya havati
    1.50 ascot = king ottokar / forest ranger / prince eiji
    3.35 ascot = mekong

    have fun merry people
    shout out to the fellow baker boys !!
    you know it makes sense 😉
    keep on winning and sharing 🙂

    the lgbster 🙂

    George B 18/06/20 12:48 PM Reply


    • Good luck GB
      Enjoy reading your stuff and comments haha

      Ryan 18/06/20 1:14 PM Reply


  • iv just had a small bet on Crossed Baton in the 1.50
    Very similar to Dubai Warrior, but has Frankie chose to ride CB? im thinking so which is interesting as its a year older, both similar last races on the AW, thinking if any CB might go on the ground slightly better if its soft
    Want to take on Sir D, altho he did perform well on softer ground last year but he’s obviously not turned into the top top horse they first thought. Hope the softer ground doesn’t bring him back to his best
    Wud of liked to of backed Fox Tal but not on this ground at a short price

    Ryan 18/06/20 1:23 PM Reply


    • thanks ryan and gl today .. frankie does like to ride for the abdullahs ! 😉

      George B 18/06/20 1:36 PM Reply


      • He didn’t enjoy that one bit !!!!

        Ryan 18/06/20 1:58 PM Reply


        • LOL 😉 another day ….we hope ? 🙂

          George B 18/06/20 2:01 PM Reply


  • Apologies for being so late, would you believe me if I said I picked Global storm and Highland cheif in first… 😉

    13:50
    Regal Reality
    Walkinthesand

    Stewart Mcmillan 18/06/20 1:48 PM Reply


    • I’ll put them up because I’m late and rest to follow.

      14:25
      Monarch of Egypt
      Final Song
      16:10
      Verboten
      Path of Thunder
      16:40
      Declined Interest
      Al Rasmah

      As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound, good luck with whatever you select today!

      Stewart Mcmillan 18/06/20 1:51 PM Reply


  • Asc
    3.35 nayef road
    4.10 glassvagas/ Eshaasy/ all you wish
    4.35 separate / huboor / kalsara
    New
    3.15 lady dauphine
    Red
    7.00 isobella may
    8.00 St just

    Jarrod Holmes 18/06/20 2:35 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh!! The 1/1 stat put me onto Onassis, ending the day on a big high after five 2nds!

    James Barker 18/06/20 5:06 PM Reply


    • That’s what they’re there for James, well done! Can’t say I had a penny on, alas. I did have an interest nibble at the 8s shot in the placepot list but didn’t really get as far as the last! That will teach me.

      Josh 18/06/20 5:38 PM Reply


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