Daily Members Post: 17/06/20 (complete)

ALL Tip x3, Stat quals inc RA Day 2 (inc trainer race pointers)

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

 

1.Tips

The Flat 

(1/9,3p, -3)

#1 – 1.15 Ascot – Hortzadar – 1 point EW– 33/1 (1/5, 5p, gen…6 places with some) UP -2

#2 – 2.25 Ascot – Arthurian Fable – 1 point win– 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) (exchanges an option) 5th, -1

#3 – 3.35 Ascot – Afaak – 1 point EW– 12/1 (gen) (1/5,5p gen, 6/7 places with some, take if you can) UP, 7th

that’s all for today, as of 09.41, write ups/notes at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.25 Ascot – Bright Melody (7/1< guide) H1 11/2 UP

2.25 Ascot – Convict (12/1< guide) H2 8/1 UP

2.25 Ascot – Hukum (any odds, 9/2< best) 12/1 WON 12/1, 16.5 BFSP

3.35 Ascot – Beatboxer (any odds, 20/1< best) 33/1 UP

4.40 Ascot – Dubai Horizon (10/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

Eye-Catcher

2.25 Ascot – Glenties (2nd run)

6.20 Chelm – Martineo (1st run) 5/2

 

Hot Form 

4.40 Ascot – Ranch Hand (1st run) 4/1

7.20 Chelm- Stone Mason (2nd run) 3/1

 

5.Other/Updates

ROYAL ASCOT QUALIFIERS: DAY 2

(From my report HERE>>>

Sire Angles

2.25 – Arthurian Fable 5th / Bright Melody H1 UP

3.00 – Bangkok UP / Lord North W 7s>5s

4.40 – Collide H3 UP/ Deal A Dollar UP

Trainers/Sires

1.15 – Maydanny UP

3.00 – Lord North W 7s>5s / Mehdaayih UP

Jockeys

1.15 – Hortzadar (25/1< guide) UP

1.50 – First Receiver 2nd / King Carney UP(25/1< guide)

2.25 – Bright Melody H1 UP

3.00 – Mehdaayih UP

3.35 – Baltic Baron (25/1< guide) 5th 33/1

4.10 – Sunshine City UP / Steadman (25/1< guide)

4.40 – Alright Sunshine (25/1< guide) H2 UP

*

Royal Ascot Trainer Pointers 

Handicaps Only…those to have won race in prev 12 renewals, with runners…

2.25  –

  • Bright Melody (trainer 1/8,3p) H1
  • Win O Clock (1/3,1p)
  • Kings Caper/ Glenties/ Turmpet Man/ Subjectivist (2/38,5p)

3.35 –

  • Lord Tennyson H1/ Alrajaa H2/ Beatboxer (1/11,3p)
  • Raising Sand (1/8, 4p)
  • Afaak / Pogo (1/4,2p)
  • Wargrave (1/8,1p)

**

Hortzadar – i’ve stuck limpet like to the blog content with all three tips mentioned above within the various Ascot pointers this time, and not a single figure priced tip in sight! – of course the handicaps will all be won by shorties today, such is Ascot punting life. When looking at this race I thought it was open enough – Ouzo (ties in with Bell Rock later on card who may shorten further if he bolts up) and Maydanny are the sexy profiles, esp the latter although up 10lb, two classes. They’re race fit and in form, which may count for plenty. But they do look short, esp as the fav can be held up and will need luck, on his first start here. Maybe Maydanny will laugh at them all but 9/2 in a race like this… which may tell its own story, anyway, ive gone EW and at least he’s my side, and if he goes close, I won’t have had any excuse.

The selection looked big I thought, esp based on his first 4 starts of last season, inc a win on seasonal return. A cavalry charge over 8f on good ground looks right up his street to my eyes – he’s a strong traveller who finds for pressure. That York run was good, possibly on fast enough ground but beaten 3 1/4 off 4lb higher, and not knocked about. Epsom was fine, drawn in the car park, they went no pace, he was running on at the end, hands and heels, plenty left in the tank. Some ok runs after that before his busy season caught up with him. Aged 5, he could have a decent season and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go close in a big handicap- hopefully this one. Omeara/DT had two biggies go very well yesterday which I couldn’t get out of my head and i think he will be primed.

I won’t get hung up on the draw – I don’t know if a track bias or not, or whether a pace bias, but the 3rd in the first race yesterday challenged up the middle, and all those 12< may decide to form one large group, which would help. There is pace that side. I thought he looked interesting at 33s, but we shall see.

*

Arthurian Fable... ah yes, a 3YO only handicap, the race types I can’t decide whether to leave at all times or take a more measured approach with – in any case, one for the Sea The Stars Royal Ascot sire angle here. I do like this horse and thought he ran a cracker on his return LTO. I rate the winner of that and some of his form, and while this early season form is tricky to weigh up, the front two were clear. He hasn’t run a bad race on his last 3, including in two Newmarket maidens/novices. He looks as if he will relish this trip and I liked his attitude LTO. Dwyer wasn’t exactly ultra aggressive late on there, losing in a head bob. This horse definitely has handicaps in him and I thought 12s was more than fair. Typically over this CD, and this race, you do not want to be drawn in single figures. 16 is more than fine but of course you always need some luck as they turn for home and fan out. It can be lost at the start. He’s tactically versatile and tries.

Of course it’s open enough and not the sort of race i’d want a short price in – Bright Melody hits plenty of stats above, and I won’t begrudge him winning if mine doesn’t turn up (always possible 10 days on from last run, but his trainer confirms him to have come out of it well). 11/2 seemed short enough for tipping purposes in a race like this. Bodyline has races in him also and could put up a bold show for Sir Mark. I’ve my eyes on that Yarmouth race as to weather it will turn out to be hot or not. Celestran didn’t exactly boost the form yesterday. If the tip falters obviously I won’t begrudge Convict winning for the Trainer Profiles either. Hopefully it is genuinely good ground, as that should be fine for the selection – any faster would be unknown.

*

Afaak – he’s nailed on to finish outside the Top 5 places given i’ve gone each way and I think he’s bombproof to place, at worst! Poor sod. I just don’t know how he doesn’t go very very close in this line up, from this mark and with Fallon’s excellent 3lb claim – that suggests to me he’s here to run his race and they want to give him every chance – he won this race last season off 103 (no claim, same as today with claim) on his first run of the season and rarely runs a bad race in these handicaps – well a close 2nd and a win from his last two runs in this race. He was lightly raced last season and with 15 handicap runs, possibly not your typical 6YO. IF he repeats either of those two runs in this, he goes close. As simple as that. Conditions look ideal and he’s the best C2 8f handicapping form in the race for me, and certainly here.

Obviously he’s open to attack from less exposed legs, in part that’s why i’ve gone EW with 5 places up for grabs – but it does look a 7/8 runner race to me. The sea of blue on odds-checker does look correct to my eyes. However, Lord Tennyson is very inexperienced, too inexperienced given his price- of course he could hack up. Bell Rock is interesting and looks solid, but will need luck in running – I can see him bursting through but again he has some learning to do still. I’d probably fancy him of the two at the top.

Dane’s mount is interesting but up 8lb, up in class in a much deeper race. I assume Jim could have ridden him (and also assume connections wanted to use Fallon’s 3lb on mine) – his looks interesting in what feels like a conditions race given the ratings spread of the top 12 or so – but he does have 9-10, 109 – having gone up 9lb for beating the 9YO So Beloved on the AW LTO. He has questions to answer but is unexposed, 12s. Owner/retained jockey can do little wrong at the moment. Fox Premier and Dark Vision – a case could be made they’re better over further, but extra stamina no bad thing here if a scorching gallop. I

The rest have plenty more questions – although typically O’Meara/Tudhope’s mount will now go well at a monster price! He needs the headgear to have a dramatic effect, which it could do I suppose. Beatboxer has too many questions for me but a monster price again and bits and pieces of form, if he’s ready.

However, I did think the winner would come from the top 7 in the market as it stands and as an EW proposition, the selection does look the most solid of those. Hopefully he hits the front in the final furlong, and can just cling on!

*

So, that’s day 2. I’ll be licking my wounds if they all fall out the back of the tv.

Elsewhere, I don’t really have any other fancies at the prices. The Horses to Follow selections look a bit short for tipping purposes to my eyes, but hopefully they’ll go well.

In the 4.10 Ascot –  I’ll most likely put interest change on the two Wesley Ward horses for entertainment – maybe a neg they’re not much shorter given his record here/he knows what’s needed. But they’re likely to be twice the size of everything else in the race. They usually look like 3/4 year olds! Of course Ballydoyle/Coolmore can rate theirs on homework, so significant Moore’s mount is being well backed.

Best of luck with any pokes today.

Josh

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. Lord North my winner. Won in impressive style even Havlin did terrible mistake at beginning of the race

  2. No joy on Tuesday.

    Wednesday’s bets:

    12.20 Bev, Ready Freddie Go 20/1:
    1.50 Asc, Russian Emperor 10/3;
    3.35 Asc, Vale Of Kent 25/1;
    4.10 Asc, Chief Little Hawk 9/2.

    Good luck.

  3. two old timer horses running today
    115 ouzo stan mellors 1000th winner 1971
    410.mighty gurkha 1964 lincoln winner

  4. A day for value?
    115A So Beloved freshness and easy going make the case to take the best price 66/1
    150 Mascat this unexposed contender should relish conditions for a stable in form 28/1
    225 Bodyline faith in Morris required to beat stall 17 for a horse that will relish the test
    335 Love the chance of Baltic Baron in the forecast rain and Tudhope does well at RA
    750C Hoping for an above Parr performance (sorry) from Sir Hamilton returned to CD

      1. GL Chris, thanks for the brief reasoning and the results update etc – always useful esp if regularly post selections etc.
        I do like Bodyline…. and do hope I haven’t picked the wrong Omeara handicapper! A few of you like his other one.

  5. Heartened to see that two of my three value choices that I picked out before I went to bed last night have been tipped/ mentioned by Josh & Chris. Doesn’t prove anything other than I must be using some logic somewhere I guess, but I feel like I’ve been on a losing run since racing restarted and I’m looking for silver linings that I haven’t completely lost the plot lol. I suppose with these at least, I won’t have to lay too much out. For the record they are, 1.15 Hortzadar, 2.25 Subjectivist, 3.35 Baltic Baron. Good luck all.

    1. We can sink or swim together Andrew – hopefully I haven’t picked the wrong O’Meara horse! gulp. Hort does look a more than lively outsider, let’s just hope he doesn’t win his side/up the middle, but they’re miles behind nearside! hard to know, but worth chancing at the prices with the places available.
      best of luck.

  6. 4 for me today at Ascot.
    1-15 Brian Epstein ( small ew on Goring)
    2-25. Convict
    3-35. Raising Sand
    4-40. Eddystone Rock

  7. First off the Ascot list:

    12.20 Bev. Harswell Prince/Tapeten Toni
    16.10. Asc. Astimegoesby/Fast Start/Fools Rush In//Get It/Macho Pride/Mighty Gurkha/Muker/Tactical/Yazaman.
    17.20. Chelm. Baby Sham/Fields of Berries/Julie Johnston/Twentysharesofgrey/You’ve Charmed me.

    Quite a list , especially in the 16.10 Ascot Windsor Castle Stakes, so focus will be on that one higlighting the possible contenders of all runners, including those on the list.

    Obvious contender is Chief Little Hawk for O’brien ..he won this in 2019 with Southern Hills and is quite likely to win this as the pre run at Navan follows the same pattern as in 2019..Racing post comment is that the horse won comfortably in a time of 60.25 secs over 5f which equates to 37.34 mph, suggesting there is more to come. That was a +10 race worth £8k to the winner and of all the runners in this today is the most valuable any of the runners have contested thus far..so major chance

    What of the likely challengers? On my figures the fastest horse thus far is Steadman but is now a non runner…Tactical, Mighty Ghurkha, Astimegoesby, Victory Thoughts, Yazaman and Sheriff Bianco of the Ward runners are in with a shout on my figures…..the latter may find the extra 1/2 furlong too much and would want a better price than 13/2 as price to skinny as you are hoping the horse stays and is good enough to beat Chief. Similarly Tactical is too short a price.

    The two at bigger prices Victory Thoughts and Yazaman at 33/1 and 18/1 respectively with four places on offer are worthy of an each way punt against the fav….but it is a minefield so small stakes if playing..gd lck with whatever you back today.

      1. Hi Nick…Get It beat Tactical but latter horse was hampered…have Mighty Gurkha better than Get It but anything that ran at Nmkt on 4/6 demands respect as these are quality maidens so all the best with the e/w shot

      2. In general the AW runs faster than turf so anything on the AW then running on turf needs to be adjusted accordingly….I do this by comparing median times for distance and track then adjusting the time accordingly…also make a going adjustment (i.e good,soft etc.,) am assuming you do the same??

  8. THE LGB E/W OVENS DELIGHTS TODAY
    ********************************************************************************
    Play du jour
    ———————-
    12.20 BEV READY FREDDIE GO (trainer system) = 4tbp bf
    3.35 ASC BALTIC BARON/DARK VISION/KYNREN = e/w tbp bf
    4.10 ASC CHIEF LITTLE HAWK 🙂 🙂 🙂
    (trainer horse course system) oven ready nap of the day hoping ryan will bounce back today ?)
    4.40 ASC FUJAIRA PRINCE / RANCH HAND (trainer horse course system)
    ********************************************************************************
    Evening Tapas menu (especially for mc 🙂 )
    ————————————————————-
    6.50 CHELMS JUAN LES PINS (aw gelded system)
    ********************************************************************************
    Au revoir
    have good day and thanks for sharing 😉
    lgb
    p.s. can everyone stop private messaging me for cakes ….. these are not real ovens .. honestly 😉 !

    1. Nice work on Ready Freddie and the winner of the Hunt Cup! I’m with you on Chief Little Hawk you’re on fire G 🙂

    2. Still cooking with gas..hot, hot, hot,…Thanks for posting ..all the best…more from the oven tomorrow I hope!

      1. another winning day for the red ovens in la la land .. service with a smile as usual 🙂
        i did and enjoy most ..smashing into the place markets ..i made more money on freddie and baltic than dark vision and fujaira ……….. many ways to bake a cake !!!

        right……… clean down the ovens and start a fresh tomorrow .. ……. i really should get a bakery of bets website going ….lol 🙂
        keep having fun see you tomorrow 🙂
        head baker lgb 🙂

      2. cheers silver always making notes from your interesting posts 😉 keep up the good work 🙂
        lgb

  9. Ascot
    1.15 brains / plantadream
    1.50 king Carney
    2.25 Berkshire savvy
    3.35 what’s the story/ baltic baron/ pogo/ wargrave
    4.10 fools rush in/fast start
    4.40 Dubai horizon

    Bev
    1.25 David’s beauty
    2.35 Bertie’s princess
    3.45 Helmoona
    4.15 inky blinder

  10. Aw, thanks GBster, will have a look, swap your tip for Lezardriux in the 4.45, looks a weak race and would put it in at evens not current 5/2. Won’t get rich on that so maybe a Sandyboys double with yours?

  11. More speed for info

    1250 Beve – Astrozone (rating on AW) 4/1
    1315 Asco – Plantadream (rating on AW) 22/1
    1425 Asco – Summeronsevenhills 50/1
    1435 Beve – Bavardages (rating on AW) 5/2
    1510 Beve – How Bizarre (rating on AW) 7/1
    1535 Asco – Montatham 6/1
    1615 Beve – Sly Minx 6/4
    1645 Chlm – Lezardrieux (rating on turf) 9/4
    1950 Chlm – Three C’s 6/4
    2020 Chlm – Alphabetical (rating on turf) 1/4!

  12. Today’s, Unfortunately don`t have time for write ups, busy with work, which in a way is a good thing.

    13:15
    ALTERNATIVE FACT 1pt win 10/1 gen
    SALAYEL 1pt win 14/1 gen

    14:25
    WINOCLOCK 1pt win 7/1 gen
    BODYLINE 1pt win 11/1 gen

    15:35
    ALRAJAA 1pt win 12/1 gen
    DARK VISION 1pt win 9/1 gen

    16:40
    ALMANIA 11/1 gen 1pt win
    THEMAXWECAN 16/1 gen 1pt win

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Defeat, snatched from the jaws of victory, if I had to be critical, thought he just went a tad too early, but, with Frankie breathing down yer neck……

  13. Hi Nick, hope you do not mind me putting my input in, for this has been on my mind for a couple of days and never been a fan of speed ratings, could be i am clueless and have it totally wrong.
    Speed figures have my doubts for horse wins over Epsoms 5 furlongs which is renouned for fast run race, horse as this speed figure from Epsom, then runs at Pontefract with its uphill finish i would imagine it would not get near that Epsom speed figure, also in that Epsom race there was another couple of speedy horses to make the race a true gallop, the race at Beverley there are no front runners to make it a true gallop, so the Epsom horse could well struggle, also going differences etc.
    Speed ratings in the USA could well be different for all the tracks are circular, flat and sand, over here so many different courses, undalating, uphill, stiff or easy courses, so for me it is a minefield.
    Intresting to know if your AW speed ratings when are only used at AW courses would be more successful, again Southwell ratings would have to be treated with care.
    Cheers
    Colin

  14. iv gone from one extreme to the other today
    Read Westys comments this morning and felt totally the same that I’m picking selections out but not getting performances and not being near the winners
    Wasn’t huge on today’s racing but I did look at the big one 3pm and didn’t fancy the chances of Lord North at all, thought he wudn’t back up after running so recently and anyways no way at all would he be good enough to beat Japan. I didn’t think a horse would go from a Hcp win to Listed and end up winning a grade1, not just winning but hacking up!!
    So after he won after a recent run I saw a comment about some1 backing Sir Busker after Fifth position won at the weekend and form popped in my head last night and Dark Vision was 2nd in the race so backed him only 10mins before the off
    Totally throws my prev thoughts out the window but good to get a winner
    And they are there to be found if you have time to look through form

    Some serious notes to get down though tonight lots to think about
    I would normally side with a horse with a run under its belt over one coming fresh (I know they’re all different like Cyrname for example) but as a general rule, but not 10days before, does anyone have any guidelines they follow for this or Am I way off??

  15. Well played if you’ve picked out Lord North today. iv seen that Elarqam who he beat last time out was only a length behind Crystal Ocean and Japan so that form obviously looks very good but iv just not seen a lot of horses step through the levels to ultimately end up winning a group1 in that style, even if the rest have under performed slightly

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