2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
#1 – 1.15 Ascot – Hortzadar – 1 point EW– 33/1 (1/5, 5p, gen…6 places with some) UP -2
#2 – 2.25 Ascot – Arthurian Fable – 1 point win– 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) (exchanges an option) 5th, -1
#3 – 3.35 Ascot – Afaak – 1 point EW– 12/1 (gen) (1/5,5p gen, 6/7 places with some, take if you can) UP, 7th
that’s all for today, as of 09.41, write ups/notes at bottom of post…
2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
2.25 Ascot – Bright Melody (7/1< guide) H1 11/2 UP
2.25 Ascot – Convict (12/1< guide) H2 8/1 UP
2.25 Ascot – Hukum (any odds, 9/2< best) 12/1 WON 12/1, 16.5 BFSP
3.35 Ascot – Beatboxer (any odds, 20/1< best) 33/1 UP
4.40 Ascot – Dubai Horizon (10/1<) 20/1 ‘DNQ’
3.Other Micro Angles
4.Horses to Follow
2.25 Ascot – Glenties (2nd run)
6.20 Chelm – Martineo (1st run) 5/2
4.40 Ascot – Ranch Hand (1st run) 4/1
7.20 Chelm- Stone Mason (2nd run) 3/1
ROYAL ASCOT QUALIFIERS: DAY 2
2.25 – Arthurian Fable 5th / Bright Melody H1 UP
3.00 – Bangkok UP / Lord North W 7s>5s
4.40 – Collide H3 UP/ Deal A Dollar UP
1.15 – Maydanny UP
3.00 – Lord North W 7s>5s / Mehdaayih UP
1.15 – Hortzadar (25/1< guide) UP
1.50 – First Receiver 2nd / King Carney UP(25/1< guide)
2.25 – Bright Melody H1 UP
3.00 – Mehdaayih UP
3.35 – Baltic Baron (25/1< guide) 5th 33/1
4.10 – Sunshine City UP /
Steadman (25/1< guide)
4.40 – Alright Sunshine (25/1< guide) H2 UP
Royal Ascot Trainer Pointers
Handicaps Only…those to have won race in prev 12 renewals, with runners…
- Bright Melody (trainer 1/8,3p) H1
- Win O Clock (1/3,1p)
- Kings Caper/ Glenties/ Turmpet Man/ Subjectivist (2/38,5p)
- Lord Tennyson H1/ Alrajaa H2/ Beatboxer (1/11,3p)
- Raising Sand (1/8, 4p)
- Afaak / Pogo (1/4,2p)
- Wargrave (1/8,1p)
Hortzadar – i’ve stuck limpet like to the blog content with all three tips mentioned above within the various Ascot pointers this time, and not a single figure priced tip in sight! – of course the handicaps will all be won by shorties today, such is Ascot punting life. When looking at this race I thought it was open enough – Ouzo (ties in with Bell Rock later on card who may shorten further if he bolts up) and Maydanny are the sexy profiles, esp the latter although up 10lb, two classes. They’re race fit and in form, which may count for plenty. But they do look short, esp as the fav can be held up and will need luck, on his first start here. Maybe Maydanny will laugh at them all but 9/2 in a race like this… which may tell its own story, anyway, ive gone EW and at least he’s my side, and if he goes close, I won’t have had any excuse.
The selection looked big I thought, esp based on his first 4 starts of last season, inc a win on seasonal return. A cavalry charge over 8f on good ground looks right up his street to my eyes – he’s a strong traveller who finds for pressure. That York run was good, possibly on fast enough ground but beaten 3 1/4 off 4lb higher, and not knocked about. Epsom was fine, drawn in the car park, they went no pace, he was running on at the end, hands and heels, plenty left in the tank. Some ok runs after that before his busy season caught up with him. Aged 5, he could have a decent season and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go close in a big handicap- hopefully this one. Omeara/DT had two biggies go very well yesterday which I couldn’t get out of my head and i think he will be primed.
I won’t get hung up on the draw – I don’t know if a track bias or not, or whether a pace bias, but the 3rd in the first race yesterday challenged up the middle, and all those 12< may decide to form one large group, which would help. There is pace that side. I thought he looked interesting at 33s, but we shall see.
Arthurian Fable... ah yes, a 3YO only handicap, the race types I can’t decide whether to leave at all times or take a more measured approach with – in any case, one for the Sea The Stars Royal Ascot sire angle here. I do like this horse and thought he ran a cracker on his return LTO. I rate the winner of that and some of his form, and while this early season form is tricky to weigh up, the front two were clear. He hasn’t run a bad race on his last 3, including in two Newmarket maidens/novices. He looks as if he will relish this trip and I liked his attitude LTO. Dwyer wasn’t exactly ultra aggressive late on there, losing in a head bob. This horse definitely has handicaps in him and I thought 12s was more than fair. Typically over this CD, and this race, you do not want to be drawn in single figures. 16 is more than fine but of course you always need some luck as they turn for home and fan out. It can be lost at the start. He’s tactically versatile and tries.
Of course it’s open enough and not the sort of race i’d want a short price in – Bright Melody hits plenty of stats above, and I won’t begrudge him winning if mine doesn’t turn up (always possible 10 days on from last run, but his trainer confirms him to have come out of it well). 11/2 seemed short enough for tipping purposes in a race like this. Bodyline has races in him also and could put up a bold show for Sir Mark. I’ve my eyes on that Yarmouth race as to weather it will turn out to be hot or not. Celestran didn’t exactly boost the form yesterday. If the tip falters obviously I won’t begrudge Convict winning for the Trainer Profiles either. Hopefully it is genuinely good ground, as that should be fine for the selection – any faster would be unknown.
Afaak – he’s nailed on to finish outside the Top 5 places given i’ve gone each way and I think he’s bombproof to place, at worst! Poor sod. I just don’t know how he doesn’t go very very close in this line up, from this mark and with Fallon’s excellent 3lb claim – that suggests to me he’s here to run his race and they want to give him every chance – he won this race last season off 103 (no claim, same as today with claim) on his first run of the season and rarely runs a bad race in these handicaps – well a close 2nd and a win from his last two runs in this race. He was lightly raced last season and with 15 handicap runs, possibly not your typical 6YO. IF he repeats either of those two runs in this, he goes close. As simple as that. Conditions look ideal and he’s the best C2 8f handicapping form in the race for me, and certainly here.
Obviously he’s open to attack from less exposed legs, in part that’s why i’ve gone EW with 5 places up for grabs – but it does look a 7/8 runner race to me. The sea of blue on odds-checker does look correct to my eyes. However, Lord Tennyson is very inexperienced, too inexperienced given his price- of course he could hack up. Bell Rock is interesting and looks solid, but will need luck in running – I can see him bursting through but again he has some learning to do still. I’d probably fancy him of the two at the top.
Dane’s mount is interesting but up 8lb, up in class in a much deeper race. I assume Jim could have ridden him (and also assume connections wanted to use Fallon’s 3lb on mine) – his looks interesting in what feels like a conditions race given the ratings spread of the top 12 or so – but he does have 9-10, 109 – having gone up 9lb for beating the 9YO So Beloved on the AW LTO. He has questions to answer but is unexposed, 12s. Owner/retained jockey can do little wrong at the moment. Fox Premier and Dark Vision – a case could be made they’re better over further, but extra stamina no bad thing here if a scorching gallop. I
The rest have plenty more questions – although typically O’Meara/Tudhope’s mount will now go well at a monster price! He needs the headgear to have a dramatic effect, which it could do I suppose. Beatboxer has too many questions for me but a monster price again and bits and pieces of form, if he’s ready.
However, I did think the winner would come from the top 7 in the market as it stands and as an EW proposition, the selection does look the most solid of those. Hopefully he hits the front in the final furlong, and can just cling on!
So, that’s day 2. I’ll be licking my wounds if they all fall out the back of the tv.
Elsewhere, I don’t really have any other fancies at the prices. The Horses to Follow selections look a bit short for tipping purposes to my eyes, but hopefully they’ll go well.
In the 4.10 Ascot – I’ll most likely put interest change on the two Wesley Ward horses for entertainment – maybe a neg they’re not much shorter given his record here/he knows what’s needed. But they’re likely to be twice the size of everything else in the race. They usually look like 3/4 year olds! Of course Ballydoyle/Coolmore can rate theirs on homework, so significant Moore’s mount is being well backed.
Best of luck with any pokes today.