Daily Members Post: 16/06/20 (complete)

Tip x3 + write ups, Stats quals inc Royal Ascot Day 1

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

 

1.Tips

The Flat 

(1/6,3p, 0)

#1 – 2.25 Ascot – Miss Yoda – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP

#2 – 4.10 Ascot – Wasmya – 1 point win – 8.6/1 (BetfX) 15/2 (bet365) , 7/1 (SkyB) (declared to BetfX price, being monitored) UP

#3 – 4.40 Ascot – Moon King – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365 / 888 / Coral /SportingB) UP 5/1

that’s all for today, as of 08.58, notes/write ups below, including a few ‘dangers /savers /interest wagers’, as it’s Royal Ascot, and the game is to be enjoyed!) 

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.15 Ascot – First Contact (7/1< guide) 20/1 UP

4.40 Ascot – Cliffs of Dooneen (16/1<) 66/1 ‘DNQ’ UP

4.40 Ascot – Moon King (16/1<) H1 7/1 UP

7.00 Wind – Junius Brutus (16/1<) H3 11/2 UP 7/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

ROYAL ASCOT QUALIFIERS: DAY 1

(From my report HERE>>>

Sire Angles

1.50 – Bless Him

2.25 – Anastarsia UP/ Miss Yoda H1 UP

4.10 – Lavenders Blue H4 up

Trainers/Sires

1.50 – Terebellum 2nd

2.25 – Anastarsia UP/ Frankly Darling WON 11/8 / Miss Yoda H1 UP

Jockeys

1.15 – Shelir (25/1< guide) 5th 22/1 (best of those drawn low, not many miles on clock, and not for DOM, one to keep an eye on, could have nice hncp pot in him over 7/8f. Big run from Ebury also…)

1.50 – Terebellum 2nd / Space Traveller H4 (25/1< guide) UP

2.25 – Frankly Darling WON

3.00 – Arthurs Kingdom 2nd

4.10 – Wasmya UP / Agincourt (25/1< guide) 2nd 28/1

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Royal Ascot Trainer Pointers 

Handicaps Only…those to have won race in prev 12 renewals, with runners…

4.40 Ascot 

  • Verdana Blue (trainer race record: 1/15, 3p) H2
  • Blue Laureate / Mancini (1/8, 2p)
  • Yaa Salaam (1/10,3p)

**

Ascot Pokes

So, to summarise… my ‘interests’ for the day are below, to use/ignore as you please… write ups/notes follow… at Royal Ascot I’m pro having a ‘sofa change budget’, for interest wagers – this sport, and weeks like this, are to be enjoyed – they’re much smaller than my tipping stake, but obviously we know what happens now… 🙂 

1.15 – First Contact UP / Glen Spiel UP

1.50 – pass

2.25 – Miss Yoda (TIP) UP

3.00 – Arthurs Kingdom 2nd

3.35 pass (i’d like to see Battaash bolt up for the spectacle – but the brother of Liberty Beach’s owner/breeder reads these pages, so i’d like her to go close) 

4.10 – Wasmya (TIP) UP

4.40 – Moon King (TIP) UP/ Land of Oz UP (saver)

 

TIPS write ups/notes…

2.25 Miss Yoda – She hits my sires angles (Sea The Stars) above which was the ‘way in’ to her and this race – bar Bharani Star she’s the only one proven over the distance and runs as if she’ll stay further. Of course that means plenty may improve for it, but I thought 6s was a shade overpriced. She won LTO having done everything wrong – fell out the stalls, held up, i’m not sure she was in love with the track, or ground, but still came out on top and won cosily. Her form has a solid enough feel in the context of this race and I thought she was the yardstick they all had to beat. She won’t mind the rain based on that Newmarket run, where she was ahead of Berkshire Rocco, who chased home English King on the same Lingfield card. The latter did bolt up and is now hotly fancied for The Derby, but still, a sort of boost. As with all of these she’s open to improvement but she’s consistent and has more experience than most in here, four of whom she beat LTO.

Frankly Darling is being backed as if defeat is out of the question, which is may be. She did bolt up at Newcastle and JG did introduce Enable there. He does like sending a good one to the track, and she could be next. However she’s lacking experience and has stamina to prove. Ground looks like it will be fine. Maybe the two Gosden fillies will be fighting it out! If mine is to lose, hopefully this one does something special, but at 6s i’m happy to side with Miss Yoda. If she settles/runs her race, i’d be disappointed if she was not thereabouts.

4.10 – Wasmya – one for Frankie here – i doubt it’s too significant that he’s been booked – he wouldn’t have had a choice on anything else in here I don’t think and of course he used to be retained by the owners I think. Her trainer knows the time of day especially when sending one to Royal Ascot (1/9, 4p, his last 3 runners, 2,1,2 inc a winner last year) and the French have a decent record in this. She’s arguably the only one in here to have had a proper prep – a return run with enough time to recover and to peak. She wouldn’t be here if her trainer didn’t think she could go well and her form looks solid. She runs as if she will relish the 8f here and cut won’t be a problem. She was arguably unlucky LTO and the winner there has some solid group form.  What you do with the price is up to you, but i’ll declare to 9.6 on Betfair. She may well drift and BOG is an option if you have it. She does need to step up but Frankie is worth a few lbs around here, and she looked worth chancing at the odds to my eyes.

4.40 – Moon King – one from the Trainer Profiles quals here and I found it hard to leave him at 7s – he’s so tough and likeable, and shapes as if he is well worth a go at this trip – i thought he did it a shade cosily LTO over 2m at Haydock and he could relish 20f, and take another step forward. He normally keeps responding to pressure and just gallops. His form has a very strong look and ties in with plenty of early season ‘hot form’ lines carried over from last year (Trueshan and Laafy from that Haydock race, the latter behind him, First In Line further back, Holy Kingdom/ Future Investment from that York race). He just looks solid, and while he has to prove stamina on the flat, 7s just allowed the chance, esp given his form and that of the yard. Of course there’s a slight niggle about the 8 day return – he is 2/2 returning within 10 days, so hopefully no problem there. And he didn’t have a hard race to the naked eye LTO.

the dangers…. I wouldn’t put anyone off having a saver on Land Of Oz – i have had some change to make myself feel better if he does come out on top – I can’t see him having an issue at the trip and could arguably be the strongest stayer on paper in this, on what they’ve done on the flat (the jumpers always harder to weigh up, but nothing from Mullins this year!) He can have a look around though and has stopped in front before, although minor niggles for his more confident backers. I wouldn’t be shocked if he and the selection slogged this out, but I may fancy mine to beat him in a scrap. We shall see.  Given I’ve tipped Moon King, I should mention Blue Laureate who he beat LTO, not by far. I’ve a slight stamina niggle (based on the 3rd to Land of Oz in the Ces trial last September) and think the selection, and Prescott’s, will outstay him, and the former will confirm the form. I could be wrong on that, but I can’t back them all! I also think he probably wears CP for a reason. Ian Williams has won the race previously.

Verdana Blue was shorter when I was looking and following the rain is now on the drift. She does have a stamina question on the flat – 20f on the level takes far more getting than over jumps imo, and even more so after the rain. I thought 4s was short but on ratings, she’s obviously chucked in off this flat mark. Still, I was happy to leave her at the prices but she ‘could’ bolt up. Good to Soft on the flat is ‘firmer’ than the jumps equivalent.

*

Elsewhere... I had a good look at the 1.15 – I stared at First Contact for a while but in the end decided this would be some task off 9-10/ 105 but I do think the CD and slight drop of rain will be up his street. And it’s Appleby/Buick. Problem is i’m not sure he’s a 110 horse which he may need to be, but, with no Meydan this year, maybe he’ll be a happier horse this season. A chance that trip/the races/length of time out there messed up the rest of his year/took time to re-acclimatise. Anyway, joint top weights do win Ascot handicaps and while as yet I don’t back all my stats quals systematically, he may get the ‘system stake’ on the machine, just in case – I suspect something is better weighted but if he jumps on terms this time, and races up there, he should keep going. I think he’ll be fit enough given who it is. I thought Glen Shiel 20s looked big also in that, and maybe both of those will give me a good spin for ‘interest wagers’ – Daarik is short, but the sort of profile that could bolt up, and Kaeso is 6 and on a career high mark. Anyway, pin out, and best of luck.

Finally… Arthurs Kingdom is being backed for Frankie in the 3.00- the fav isn’t exactly weak but I remember his mount in the 2000G was well punted also, and Moore seemingly picked the wrong one. I’d be surprised if AOBs are not fighting it out but plenty of educated guesswork at the prices.

 

Best of luck with any fancies, as always

*

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Ascot list…ironically non are running at Ascot today!
    13.00. Thirsk. High Peak
    17.00 Winds. Furlong Factor/Porfin/Trixie Mitskie
    17.50. Winds. Golden Bear/Zamaani

  2. Royal Ascot day one picks:

    1.15, Flaming Spear 25/1;
    1.50, Nustashry 14/1;
    2.25, Passion 6/1:
    3.35, Shades Of Blue 25/1,
    4.10, Posted 50/1,
    4.40, Land Of Oz 9/1.

    Good luck Martin

  3. 1.5o Ascot – Billesdon Brook – 22/1 4 places e/w
    5.1o Chelmsford – Mansfield – 12/1 e/w

    1. i also like Billesdon Brook together with Space Traveller,
      And Dubawi Fifty
      also Agincourt at that crazy price and Magic Lily
      Windsor Double Lethal Missile and Elzaam’s Dream,

  4. Looking forwards to Ascot
    Shud get some decent time to have a look
    1.50 Space Traveller looks big odds 25s

          1. Yes but the police have spoken to you about that haven’t they, and you promised to behave 🙂

          2. WHO WOKE YOU UP MR MAIN MAN MC .. WELCOME BACK TO OUR WORLD 😉
            THE CAPS HAVE IT !! 🙂

  5. In the Kings Stand 3.35
    This Liberty Beach ran close to Bataash’s time if you go off both their 5F runs at Ascot last year. LB run also was on softer ground and carries 9lbs less
    Did have a run 11days before Ascott last year
    Would be opposing Battaash at the odds wud even chance Shades of Blue

    1. GL Ryan, she should give you a run for your money…

      I am no time expert but the two times of those two races … Liberty Beache’s race was run 3 seconds (18 lengths) slower – slightly easier ground but Bat carried 4lb actual weight more on back also.
      My reading of those two races is that he was in a different county come the line, but maybe i’ve got that wrong. And there’s no Blue Point today, or crowd to wind him up- he won’t have a better chance to win here, although I can fully see why many want to take him on with solid EW wagers etc, as he isn’t bombproof.

      Josh

      1. Yes Josh iv noted down that iv tried these quick timings before and it hasn’t worked out well for me
        it was mainly to see if the times were miles away incase showed had no chance at all
        But going from 2Yrs-3 so possibly getting faster and a bit more extra weight in favour along with performing well on the course thought i wud side with her.iv not actually had any bets yet and still may not do but those were my thoughts
        Alot can go wrong with Battaash and i dont think he can improve now at the top level, at the same time as you point out though he could run that same race as last year and be slowing to the line but could of already be a few lengths clear anyways and win easily

  6. Ascot 115 Lethal Lunch EW 150 Mohaather EW 225 Frankly Darling Win 335 Liberty Beach EW 440 Summer Moon EW
    Other meetings to follow.

  7. Thirsk all EW: 130 My Sister Jo 240 Smeaton 315 William Alexander 450 Mr Waygu 520 Van Gerwen 550 Noble Gift
    Windsor 600 Bonus 630 Englishman EW 700 Luxor EW 730 Mythical Madness
    Chelmsford 540 Lacan 645 Compass Point 715 Island Flame EW
    Loss: 4.8pts y’day

    1. More speed info, good laying bets at the moment:) Thankfully my bets are horses under my old race conditions format, speed will get better as the data grows, he said hopefully!

      1620 Thir – Seas of Elzaam 9/2 (rating on AW)
      1315 Asco – Daarik 3/1 (rating on AW)
      1710 Chlm – Who Told Jo Jo (rating on turf)
      1945 Chlm – Beat The Breeze 15/8
      1800 Wind – Bonus 7/4
      1930 Wind – Mythical Madness 9/4 (Lethal Weapon has a better rating achieved on AW)

  8. Ascot Day 1 Pokes – more for fun today

    1:15 Kaeso looks a solid e/w but am going to go with Mutamaasik at the prices

    1:50 Space Traveller – many of us seem to have hit on this one

    3:35 A real shock with Shades of Blue running into a place

    4:10 Lavenders Blue

    Good luck all

  9. Away from Ascot I took a look at the 13.00 Thirsk because it is a 2 yo even though it is a class 5 with all that implies in terms of consistent performances…Stats first from racing post..
    Kevin Ryan with 2yo 6-47 13% +25.75 overall 20-165 12% -5.00
    Keith Dalgleish with 2yo 3-17 18% +2.00 Overall 10-57 18% + 35.56
    Charlie Fellowes overall 4-14 29% with 0-0 2yo.

    So stats wise preference is for the Dalgleish runner Chilli Leaves.

    Those that have had a run usually have the advantage of experience and the Johnston runner has to be respected…against my own figures the Newcastle race over 6f in a c5 on 4th June was ok for the grade but nothing special run in q time 2.35 seconds below course median ..my own figures for the median is 72.77 secs over the course and distance so very close to the racing post figure…the horse was running on so the step up to 7f may well see the horse win but at the price no thanks as there may be a newcomer that is slightly better even first time up.

    Deputy from the Fellowes stable may well be good enough and given the overall strike rate of the trainer would have an obvious chance the pedigree is good., and the trainer had a recent 2yo winner.

    In terms of pedigree I like Infant Hercules, Chilli Leaves and Topper Bill.

    Jockeys who ride the track well are Donohue, Stott, Rodriguez.

    Selections at the prices would be win only Deputy as a saver and two e/w bets on Infant Hercules and Chillie leaves.. Topper Bill is intertesting on pedigree and may well may run well , especially if it rains and the ground softens. Now watch anyone of the others not mentioned hack up! Good lck if playing

  10. *********************************************************
    THE BAKERY OF WINNERS FOR TODAY
    *********************************************************
    These little beauties have managed to survive the burn to cinder setting on my ovens :
    1.30 T KILIG / BIG CITY
    2.05 T RED POPPY
    3.15 T SUSIE JAVES ( jockey / course = e/w 4tbp)
    3.50 T BAY FILLY ROLA / SENDACARD / CONTINENTAL
    4.20 T EXCEED AND SUCCEED / ELECTRIC MISTRESS
    4.50 T ALMURR
    ********************************************************************************
    Not designed for human or betting consumption just for admiration purposes only .
    Keep having fun outdare !! 🙂

    lgb
    in the back kitchen 🙂

    1. JEEBS .. I appear to have the oven set on “plain cup cakes” but not quite getting the icing on top at the moment .. will change the recipe fo tomoz 😉

      good game good game ! 🙂

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