Daily Members Post: 15/06/20 (complete)

no tips/ stats quals… week 2 results update

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

The Flat 

(1/6,3p, 0)

None today.

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None.

 

3.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

ROYAL ASCOT 2020 : REPORT HERE>>>

Qualifiers will be posted from this report, in section 5. I’ve focused on Sires and Jockeys this year, with 12 angles of interest – most fairly simple and we shall see how they perform. These qualifiers, plus any ‘trainer race pointers’ for the handicaps, are likely to be it for my Royal Ascot content. I’ve decided against doing any ‘big race trends’ this year. 

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Content Results Update:

Week 2 

Trainer Profiles: 7/22, 12p, +16.87 (morning odds/not bog) +10.24 BFSP

Other Micro Angles: 1/9,4p, +17, +19.4 BFSP

Horses To Follow: 2/8, 6p,  +0 , +0

Horse Race Base Ratings… so any qualifier from 3 sections above with a…

H1: 3/7, 5p, +1.87, +2.03 BFSP

H2/3/4: 3/16, 10p, -1.5, -7.5

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Total since start of Flat Turf Season…

Trainer Profiles: 9/32, 17p, +21.12 (morning odds/not bog) +14.29 BFSP

Other Micro Angles: 6/23,11p, +26.33, +32.8 BFSP

Horses To Follow: 2/10, 6p,  -2 , -2

Horse Race Base Ratings... so any qualifier from 3 sections above with a… H1/2/3/4 next to their name…

H1: 4/10, 7p, +5.87, +9.03 BFSP

H2/3/4: 5/22, 14p, +1.5, -2.54 BFSP

Total: H1-4:   32 bets / 9 wins / 21p / +7.37 / +6.49

All ‘Stats Angles’ (Section 2 +3)

55 bets / 15 wins / 28 places (inc wins) / 27% win SR/ 51% win|place sr/  +47.45 (morning odds/not bog) / +47 BFSP (after 2% comm) 

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It’s very early days still but if you’d had told me 15 days ago the content would be performing as it is, I wouldn’t have believed you. I don’t post those stats to shout about ‘winnings’ – I was clear that caution should be advised given the research was untested in the real world, and I haven’t been backing them all ‘systematically’ – i know some of you have, and took the advice to start small – £2-5 … and some nice returns for sensible stakes. Even removing the one biggie that went in for Cowell still leaves a decent total, and those stats don’t include the ‘DNQ’ qualifiers based on morning odds/my price caps for some angles – 25/1>16/1 and 12/1 winners ‘missed’ there. I’m delighted with how the ‘Trainer Profiles’ angles have performed to date.

Of more interest to me is the win and place % which is solid across the board – IF the angles/horses to follow maintain a 50% win/place % long term, they should remain profitable. IF say H1 ‘qualifiers’ could bring in +10 points a month, i’d take that, and will hopefully be a simple ‘strategy’ for those who may want fewer ‘systematic’ bets. Maybe H2/3/4 will be also. 

Anyway, a long way to go and there may (will…) be a correction at some point I suspect – but the content is highlighting good priced winners / horses that are going close, and that was the first aim – it’s a solid foundation and at the moment, a great improvement on the stats content that came before it. The ‘big race’ trainer race records pointers have also thrown up a few winners, which some of you may have landed on also…

If you’ve made some money from my content so far this season, and had something to cheer – superb. If you haven’t as yet – take comfort from those results to date, and they hopefully give you confidence moving forward that the daily content is a great starting point for finding your own bets. Add in the musings that always flow in the comments, and what more could you want! 🙂

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Tomorrow’s post is now up, inc Royal Ascot qualifiers against those stats above. (hit ‘home’ above, and you should see it)

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Just the one winner on Sunday, 4/1 into 5/2.

    Monday picks:
    1.20 Pon, Meraas 6/4;
    2.20 Pon, Edgar Allen Poe 25/1;
    3.15 Goo, Affable 10/1;
    3.55 Pon, Urban Spirit 11/2.

    Trainers in form – Marco Botti; Ger Lyons; Archie Watson; David Menusier; Richard Hannon.

  2. Ascot list: Not sure if this is worth putting up as there are 5 runners in the 4.55 Chepstow that are on the list but at the time of writing (Sunday night) there are a maximum of 14 runners so one or two may hit the frame for a place……..anyway here they are in no particular order of preference:
    Ocean Star/TimeScale/Roseacre/Weymouth Bay/Tempah/

    1. John, could you remind me what the ‘Ascot’ list is again please?? Cheers, and best of luck as always!
      Josh

  3. At the early part of the season its probably best to stick with trainers that have hit the ground running rather than pouring money into the slot machine of those not quite ready to pay out just yet.One of the hot trainers at present is Ralphe Beckett.A profitable trend from 2019 is the use of Rob Hornby which has continued with the resumption of racing.Might just be an anomaly so early, but will go with until I know better.

    3.15 Goodwood-Affable 9-11/1
    3.45 Stagiaire 5/4

    Only Affable is a reasonable risk/reward proposition

  4. 110G Quench Dolly – down in grade, has won fto
    315G Star of Wells – chance to realise potential for a strong TJ combo
    325P Nickolayeva – new trip will suit incipient stamina
    425P Lexington Law – Trainer tries something new; this CD and grade can be ideal
    525C Kinglami – old war horse to sparkle again on his fav. track
    535K Citizen Serg – going for first win as the start of his career progression
    755C Gloweth- trainer’s fto runners here are a winning pattern
    855 Chez Hans – recent winning TJ pairing, to bring them another at new trip
    You can fight over the remaining 23!
    8pts bet, profit 1pt, hopefully 🙂

    1. Hi Martin,
      Paypal is no more – they cancelled my business account, incorrectly as per customer support person, but haven’t changed it – and even if they did now, i’ll never be dealing with them again. The option above is all there is now, via Thrivecart/stripe which is a very secure/massive payment gateway/platform. With any luck Stripe won’t turn around and ‘do a paypal’!
      Josh

    1. thanks Gina if i had missed that and it came in i would have been kicking myself as i was a Chelsea boy many many moons ago 🙂

      1. obviously small stakes, I’d just kick myself if it won and I didn’t tell anybody aha, I’ve been playing the Hollie Doyle multiples for fun too they’ve been doing quite well, there’s a 40/1 shot 7.25 that I almost mentioned too but I have no other reason to back it other than the price!

  5. Hi Josh…Just sen you email info as cannot post…if this gets through on the post it will be a miracle…Ascot list originally put up on GeeGeez blog …BHA ask trainers to nominate their best 2yo Ascot prospects to make nominations as fair as possible due to current restrictions….160 horses in total on the list and some of them are NOT in the Horses In Training 2020 book but are considered to be trainers hopefuls for the coming season….All the best

      1. Ah yes, that makes sense.

        Hmm, no idea – I don’t think it’s an issue my end, as no one else seems to have an issue.
        Very strange, maybe connection / internet security/ browser/ provider or device. Odd, as you hadn’t had issues previously, and nothing’s changed my end.
        And your email hasn’t come through either as yet… maybe a delay for whatever reason! Bloody tech.
        Josh

        1. tech indeed! not surprised about email with bt!! anyway got there in the end…probably my end as connection problems over the last week…no emails on my pc for two weeks but ok on mobile both with bt so work that one out…! anyway got there in the end but hit and miss and frustrating when having to post several times to get one to go in…bit like backing horses!

  6. Not very good yesterday including Swift Verdict that appeared to run like a sports car filled with diesel. Not done my speed figures for Newmarket yet though. The horse that did win had a better speed rating but that was over a different trip. On a personal note I have shares in Motawafeeq who ran in the 350 and came 2nd. Nice to see him back on turf and run well after (as per usual) starting slowly.

    1410 Good – De Bruyne Horse (rating on AW) 5/2
    1515 Good – Punting (rating on AW) 5/1
    1545 Good – Stagiaire (rating on AW) 13/8
    1250 Pont – Airflow (rating on AW) 2/1
    1420 Pont – Directory (rating on AW) 22/1
    1525 Pont – My Girl Maggie (rating on AW) 13/8
    1705 Kemp – Aegeus 9/4

    1. Forgot about Chepstow!

      1655 Chep – Coul Queen 11/2 (rating on AW, Ocean Star has a better rating but that was over 5f)

  7. Hi
    I have three bets what i like
    2.10 G Sir Roderic
    Interesting race at 2:50 P i will bet probably on Fahey Eva Maria
    My best bets are 5:05 K Holiday Magic and The Warrior

  8. ********************************************************************************
    THIS AFTERNOONS HOT DELIGHTS FROM THE RENOWNED BAKERY OF LGB
    ********************************************************************************
    1.40 G BASILICATA (no value / strong on 3 of my bakes 🙂 )
    1.50 P EASY DESIRE ( i know it’s enforced but i like trainers/dslr = 4tbp bf)
    2.20 P RIVER DAWN ( Champion jockey in waiting soon !!! = jockey/course/race)
    2.20 P BILLY ROBERTS (Free horse to follow list)E/W should like todays cond’s)
    2.50 P LA LUNE( jockey/course Head bakers E/W Top Bake of the day 😉 ) 4tbp
    3.25 P BALTIC WOLVE ( jockey/course )
    4.55 C OCEAN STAR ( rider / course = my fave rider out there at the mo 😉 )

    Keep having fun folks !
    Head Baker !
    lgb
    enjoy !

    1. Great stuff GB, I do like a <10 runners list, and the brackets/reasoning add to the bake! GL as always.

  9. I’m late today, so my first horse in the ew l15 has already run!

    P 1:20 troubadour
    P 4:25 majestic stone
    R 4:45 briseuse de couer
    K 6:05 harbour of grace

    2 places yesterday

    Good luck!

    1. never late .. just not always on time 🙂 …….. very honest of you … my first bake just got pipped in photo .. but had the f/c ..so pheww !! 🙂

      have fun with the rest of the afternoons antics 🙂
      lgb
      lost in a bakery somewhere in lgb land 🙂

      1. Even when you lose you win GB lovely stuff! Enjoying your posts as always. Keep up the fine baking.

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