Daily Members Post: 13/06/20 (complete)

complete – All tips x2 + write up,

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

(Blog Content Explained: Read HERE>>>)

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1.Tips

Flat Tips

(1/6,3p, 0)

#1 4.20 Sand – Nuits St Georges – 1 point win – 11/2 (WH/BV) 5/1 (gen) WON 5/1>5//2 

#2 5.10 Curr – Salsa 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) 2nd, 9/2 

that’s all for today, as of 9am. Notes/write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

A busy day…

1.15 Newb – Edmond Dantes (16/1<) 4/1  WON 4/1>10/3 

2.05 Sand – Surf Dancer (13/2<) H2 6/1  UP

2.05 Sand – Well Of Wisdom (7/1< guide) 7/2 WON 7/2>9/2 SP

2.50 Donc – Danyah (any odds, 9/2< best)  8/1  WON 8/1>11/2 

3.55 Donc – Campari (any odds) 

3.55 Donc – Fruition (7/1< guide) H4 3/1 3rd 

3.55 Donc – Zeimaam (any odds, 9/2< best) 8/1 UP

4.20 Sand – Nuits St George (16/1<) H4 11/2 WON 11/2>5/2 

4.30 Donc – Favorite Moon (12/1< guide) (x2 angles) H3 11/10 2nd 

4.30 Donc – Grain of Sense (16/1<) H1 3/1 UP

4.45 Newb – Blue Cup (16/1<) 7/1 UP

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainers/Sires

5.10 Curragh – Salsa (20/1< guide) H4 12/1 2nd 

6.15 Curragh – Mother Vincent (25/1<) 9/1 UP

Breeding/Sire Angles

3.00 Newb – Onassis (any odds) H3 40/1 

 

4.Horses to Follow

Hot-Form 

1.15 Newb – Edmond Dantes (1st run) 4/1 WON 4/1>10/3 

3.45 Sand – Mambo Nights (1st run) H1 2/1 WON 2/1 , 11/4 SP

3.55 Donc – Campari (1st run) 

4.45 Newb – Rhythmic Intent (1st run) H1 4/1 2nd 

 

5.Other/Updates

ITV Racing (Saturday) Trainer Pointers 

Trainer’s to have won said race in previous 12 renewals, with runners. Stats from HorseRaceBase (HRB), if no ITV races listed, it does not exist in HRB as a ‘trends race’. 

2.40 Sandown

  • Sunday Sovereign (trainer 1/2,1p in race) UP
  • Dream Shot (1/2,1p) H1 3rd 

3.00 Newb

  • Domino Darling (1/4,3p) UP
  • Franconia (3/11, 5p) H2 WON 7/4 
  • Chamade (1/3,1p) 3rd

3.35 Newb

  • King Of Comedy (1/3,1p) 2nd
  • Zaaki (1/4,2p) H4 3rd 
  • Century Dream (1/2,1p) H3 WON 5/1 
  • Look Around (2/5,2p) UP

**

Tips write ups…

It was a relief to land on a horse that ran well yesterday, (6s>3s) no complaints there, the right horses were in and around him, and he’s bumped into a Stoute 4YO improver who was ready to go (well done Stewart for finding him) – he’d been gelded and i’ve noted down to have a dive into HRB soon, to see if I can find any angles on that front, for horses having 1st start after being Gelded etc) I suspect that race may throw up a few winners moving forward. If some more could run like that, the winners won’t be long in coming…

Nuits St Georges – he stays well, he races prominently (may try and make all if it’s game day) in a race lacking loads of pace on paper, he has the class (C3 winner, and his recent RPRs consistently above this mark), course form, will like the slight cut in the ground (he’d like it softer, but shouldn’t be an excuse) and he looked a progressive horse last year – he could just keep improving over 1m6f+ this season, and this race is a tad easier than the Cesarewitch Lto! (he went well enough there until 2f from home).

The dilemma, as with many in the first few weeks, is making an educated guess as to fitness/readiness… the fact DM runs him at a track where he does well, and where the horse has placed is a positive. However it was the jockey booking which lured me in- he’s 2/3,3p on the horse and given that I thought his booking was significant. The horse was fit enough to win on his seasonal return as a 3YO (sent off 20s last year on return), staying on at Donny over an inadequate trip in 3rd. Putting all that into the mix made me think he was worth chancing here at 5s – on flat handicapping form I thought he should be shorter, 7/2, 3s in this line up. It will be typical for Meneuisier’s other two to now win but for various reasons I was happy to leave at the prices. But all three are interesting to some degree. The market may speak for Blue Cup, and could suggest connections know what they have, first run in UK – I found him hard to weigh up.

The oppo – i’d like to think there’s a few here prepping for a return to jumps. The market suggests Pipe’s isn’t, and on his jumps mark he’s thrown in, but he hasn’t raced on the flat for years, he’s making his seasonal return and left Newland’s for Pipe’s (think the owners may have fallen out with the good Doctor). In any case, I can see him going well but 7/2 didn’t seem overpriced to my eyes, and given his profile I was happy to take him on. Pipe is only 2/29 in recent years with flat horses over staying trips also. Seaborn is interesting but he is 15lb above his last Flat turf win, that C5 at Goodwood (5lb claimer on) and he’s up in class from that run. Some questions for a 4s shot, having his first start of the campaign and first start for the yard. His AW form when last seen was ok, but he does need more.

The rest had too many questions for me, esp trainer form for a few.. Qawamees may be of mild interest as he’s the only one to have had a run, but does have a stamina question and is 1/20 in his career.

Pace/running style… the selection, along with Berrahri, are the confirmed pace in this, on paper. He should have no problem getting out and across from his stall. A few will track the pace, but hopefully Sean hits the front at some point and winds it up. He will just keep going if he’s fit enough

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Salsa…

Yes yes, i’m playing in a 3YO fillies maiden but when I looked at AOB’s stats with 1st time blinkers, I just couldn’t help myself at the price – not when combined with the fact she could make all/will be up there, and is stepping up in trip from last season. I suspect she’s been a slow maturer and they will want wins with her/to progress, for potential breeding purposes (she’s out of Galileo, a pivotal Dam, and a full sister to x3 G1 winners) She really should be better than what she’s shown so far. So, a summer at grass, the ground and the trip may spark improvement…but it was the 1st blinkers that caught the eye…

In maidens, with 1st blinkers, AOB is…

  • 93 bets/ 27 wins / 50p / 29% win SR/ +75 BFSP
  • within these stats…
    • 8/19, 12p, +13 at The Curragh (7/12,11p at Dundalk, for reference)
    • 7/18,11p, +45 over 10-10.5f
    • 9/31, 16p with Galileos
    • 8/18, 13p, +9 with those stepping up 2f+ in trip from last start.

I won’t over-think jockey bookings with this operation, not with a 12s shot… and esp since Donnacha now trains and Ryan can’t ride over there as yet, due to Covid restrictions etc.

She may well do too much, not take to the headgear, or not stay – but she was relatively fancied for her first two starts last season, inc on debut in a C2 at Glorious Goodwood, so fingers crossed it now clicks into gear. This looks a weak/open enough race on paper to my eyes and given all of the above, I couldn’t help myself at 12s.  The Ger Lyon’s newcomer may be a big danger, being well supported. Dermot Weld has yet to get going and his looked short in that context. Anyway, hopefully she bounces out and gallops them into submission.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. been taking a close look at Donny and with more rain forecast and light winds i would guess the going will be nearer soft than good, a couple of older types with a proven record in the ground caught the eye of course they might be past their sell by date and will never repeat past glories but still might be worth a go at a price.
    2-15. Muntadab currently 14-1 4 places would hope for 20’s (and a saver on Star Shield 10-1)
    3-25. Kings Pavillion would hope for 25’s +
    that would be a nice ew double 🙂

    1. 13lb’s below last winning mark think he will give a good run for the money, I’ve taken 4 places skybet 🙂

  2. No joy on Thursday – end of the two week experiment on Saturday re trainer form. has been going well but not past two days.

    trainers in form – Joseph O’Brien; Michael Stoute; Tom Clover; John Gosden.

    Three for Saturday but maybe more later:

    2.05 Sandown, Tomfre 7/1;
    2.15 Doncaster, Muntadab 14/1;
    4.50 Sandown, Young Merlin 6/1.

    Good luck Martin

  3. Longlist for consideration.
    Sandown
    2-05. Tomfre
    2-40. Orlaith
    4-20. Berrahri
    4-50. Young Merlin
    Curragh
    6-15. Kasperenko, Aurthurian Flame
    6-45. Smash Williams
    Leicester
    6-00. Winning Streak
    8-00. Power Player
    8-30. Ambushmah, Sans Souci Bay
    Newbury
    12-45. Sea Fox
    2-25. Foxtrot Lady
    3-35. Tabarrak, Century Dream
    Doncaster as above.

  4. I have started to compile my own speed figures again after a long time off so will try and post the horses that have achieved the speed good enough to win today’s race. This was profitable for me once upon a time but with starting my own business and having a young family I could never really find the time to do them properly! This is more for my enjoyment than anything else and I just thought I would share the information. Whether those selections are worth looking at you can decide. Another proviso is that I class AW and turf as 2 different figures, I may change my mind on that after studying the results. I will show those horses that have achieved the relevant figure but on an alternative surface in italics.
    As you will know some winners achieve speed figures below the class they ran in and others that fall behind in other races achieve something that normally would have been good enough to win, the latter normally represents value when they reappear under similar conditions.
    As an example, in the 1200 @ Doncaster, Rebel at Dawn achieved the speed required to win a race of this type but that was over 6f and he has been dropped back to 5f today. I will only mention horses that have achieved the speed figure this season at the relevant distance so there will be limited choice early on. They will most likely be obvious to the market with limited runners initially but that should improve over time. I am also aware that speed is just one of the factors you should consider but I find it a good way in to a race. Prices are as per Geegeez Gold at the time of writing this up.

    1305 Donc – Publicist 13/8
    1450 Donc – Abstemious 18/1 (DNQ as AW figure and on turf today) – Blackcastle Storm 5/1 similarly falls under this criteria.
    1245 Newb – Fortune and Glory 10/3 (AW figure)
    1700 Leic – Tribute to Jade 7/1
    2000 Leic – Al Ozzdi 3/1 (AW figure)

    1. Thanks for taking the time to post Nick, much appreciated – I look forward to seeing how they perform. I’m yet to incorporate any speed figures as such into my deliberations and it’s something for me to ponder! Although I browse at TS. It is a specialism in itself I think, esp if you can compile your own! GL

    2. Thanks for posting your ratings, very interesting. You do need time for such things and children do take up lots of time, especially at present. I know that I was able to look deeper into things once my children were grown up and doing their own thing.
      As you are a Geegeez user how do you incorporate the heat maps for races, where a race can be run slowly mid race and then speeds up at the end? I personally think races up to a mile are OK for speed ratings but I worry that races over further can throw up rogue figures.
      Also I think that horses go faster in higher class races anyway, so, as an example, a time clocked in a class 1 race may not be so applicable to a class 2 races etc, as the pace may not be as strong naturally as it would be at the higher level.
      Just my thoughts.

      Good luck Martin

      1. Races over further can throw up rogue figures and they speed does tend to be more reliable over shorter. However horses that win over longer distances in a messy race can be over bet next time. I try and stick to horses that have proved they can do it. This leaves you susceptible to improving horses, for instance in the 1450 at Doncaster today the 2 I mentioned ran well but came up against a horse that I presume is better than that class, the speed figure I give later may be interesting.

        Josh tipped it up with his angles though:) I don’t just use speed but thought I would just publish 1 angle I use and once I get more figures in hopefully we will have a better idea.

  5. 510 Curr. Salsa ….. I couldn’t help but notice Salsa’s form figures read 666. The number 666 is used to signify the devil, the antichrist, or evil in general. Now you might think, that’s it I’m not backing that cursed piece of horse flesh, BUT 666 is also used by Chinese gamers to commend skilful play. So lets hope the Chinese can give us something we like this time! Oh and i can’t get The Number of the Beast by Iron Maiden out of my head this morning! Look it up if you’re too young haha Good luck everybody

  6. Ascot list .
    12.55 Sand. Bungledupinblue/Happy Romance/Just a Jeroboam
    13.05 Donc. Sparkling Perry
    17.00 Leic. Virginia Plane

  7. 2 RUNS AND IN A HANDICAP QUALIFIERS LIST
    JUST FOR INFO / INTEREST
    12.30 Doncaster 6 Gossip
    12.30 Doncaster 12 Shadow Leader
    3.55 Doncaster 2 Macho Boy (IRE)
    3.55 Doncaster 1 Nugget
    6.00 Leicester 12 Little Red Socks (IRE)
    6.00 Leicester 3 Tommy de Vito

    GL
    LGB
    🙂

      1. Good shout with Nuggett…need to tighten the nuts on other selections so far!!! All the best Mr HRB!

  8. i can’t see why Well of Wisdom is a qualifier in 205 Sand. Oh well i guess this post is too late anyway

    1. I think this Sandown meeting, which is normally a 2 day meeting, is down as a ‘Festival’ meeting in HorseRacebase, which is why he’s qualified against that. Josh

      1. Festival? hmmmm seems a bit dubious to me, but hey it won! Your trainer profiles are going along just great, well done you

        1. Yep, in HRB there are loads of them – ‘Festival’ meetings, or ‘big meetings’ if you will – there’s the obvious ones on Flat, but also lots of 2/3 day meetings that have been around for years, same time every season etc – usually with the odd decent race in the mix – makes logical sense in my head I think that trainers would target/or prep horses for such meetings, esp if had previous success – of course plenty of them will have C2+/decent prize money for some races, and the stats suggest Appleby targets plenty of them.

          Thanks, yep the content and the TPs are doing ok, but still early days, system wise! Just pleased all the content is highlighting winners for now, which is part of the battle! But yep if parts/or all stats/horses to follow sections could work ‘systematically, that would be ideal.

  9. 1 winner and 1 place yesterday.

    Ew l15
    N 4:10 tremor
    L 6:00 love powerful
    C 7:15 valeria messalina
    L 8:00 power play

    Good luck!

    1. Size of fields and no on course bookmakers, mean the bookies have a free for all with the over rounds, that is what has happened…Or` did you mean big price winners on here?

  10. Trainer profiles going well Josh….Surf Dancer nearly put through the rail by Buick…no ban???…work that one out!!! Stewards are blind??..but your approach paying dividends so all good, great to see..thanks for posting.

    1. Hmm, well our rules mean he was never going to be thrown out or result reversed – i’ve no idea what jockey was meant to do differently there – did everything he could to my eyes, it’s split second stuff at speed, as soon as he dived to his right he pulled him off/switched stick – I don’t think it was Buick’s fault – whether that should be irrelevant given the interference is a different matter!! The horse would have been thrown out in France/USA. Buick would have had a hefty ban.
      Thanks – still early days, won’t get ahead of myself- but yep, they are doing well… I know how the tips will do now haha – sodding C5/6s i’m wanting to leave, and now another 3YO only winner!

      1. Good start so hope it continues but looks promising going forwards…Buick gave his horse a smack on the left side which meant the horse veered to the right and Buick must have known surf dancer was to his right so clear to me he knew what he was doing but matter of opinion but as say in other countries France /would have been disqualified but under our rules he did nothing wrong!!

        1. Hmm, he was in a left hand drive over most of straight and horse didn’t lug in. Buick said he saw two people to the right and hed gone past other horse and that’s what caused him to lug violently. He didn’t do it all up straight when he used left hand drive. But a matter of opinion. I seem to be in minority.

          1. Nothing wrong with being in the minority…doesn’t make you more right or wrong, just a matter of opinion at the end of the day and stewards just following our rules of racing but not a good look for racing…no doubt there will be more contentious decisions in the future…just good to see that in the better class of races that class comes to the fore…agree that C5 and below are really problematical…the 4.10 at Newbury case in point with the 250/1 Intercessor popping up!!

          2. That Intercessor race was poor. No better than a class 6 3yo hcp IMO. Some big yard horses worth opposing in the future. No doubt many of them will step up in trip and become different beasts!

  11. New
    3.35 looking around
    San
    3.15 elegant light
    4.20 red royalist
    4.50 vorashann
    Leicester
    5.30 able grace
    6.00 winning streak
    6.30 look at him
    7.30 menina atrevida
    Curr
    4.00 kaatskill nap
    4.35 inner beauty
    5.10 evening promise
    5.45 sundance star
    6.15 shamed

  12. Hollie Doyle is on some good form, I’ve had a nibble at her last 3 for today at fair prices
    3.oo Royal Nation 4o/1
    3.35 Chatez 14/1
    4.1o Seadance 18/1

  13. Sorry, know these are late, will try best for write ups.

    Curragh 18:15

    ARTHURIAN FLAME 1pt win 20/1 gen
    SHAMAD 1pt win 14/1 gen
    LATOYAH OF NORTH 1pt win 20/1 gen

    Curragh 19:15

    PEACEFUL 1pt win 4/1 Coral 10/3 gen
    NEW YORK GIRL 1pt win 11/1 gen

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    ARTHURIAN FLAME
    Consistent early on last year, ran well in races at Ascot and the Galway festival, should be up with the pace and although may not have the speed for a finish it could be worth siding with at the double figure price and from the O`Brien yard, who knows what we will get, here`s hoping with three darts one sticks.
    SHAMAD
    This one only just does enough, but, progressed by up to 12lbs last year and that is some going, back fresh and should be thereabouts at the finish, another dart thrown, but, these three were the ones I narrowed down to in regards of ability.
    LATOYAH OF NORTH
    Collateral form lines with all of these, but, has course form, so, knows what she`s doing in that respect, the odds are far too OTT, considering that.

    PEACEFUL
    In my opinion this one should be favourite, from the yard that know how to progress fillies from 2-3, take a look at LOVE winning our fillies equivalent last week and this one allegedly beat LOVE in a racecourse gallop, so, is the cream of the crop as far as I`m concerned. 4/1 value for me
    NEW YORK GIRL
    This one is preferred because the other O`Brien is flying at the moment also, so, if the others falter I thought at the price this one is value, won a group 3 at this course albeit on heavy ground, but, should pick up if the others falter like i said! Value at the price.

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