Daily Members Post: 09/06/20 (complete)

Upd1 inc stats update

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

Flat Tips

(0/3,0p, -3)

None.

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.45 Hayd – Kaloor (16/1<) 8/1 UP

4.15 Hayd – Beautiful Illusion (12/1< guide) H2ย 2/1 2nd

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

4.30 Leop – Aisteior (25/1<) 9/1 UP

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

A quick stats update… in the first week this new research has started well, highlighting winners which was the first priority… but some positives they may work as a systematic portfolio and repeat just some of their historical ‘paper’ results … just looking at those that ‘qualified’ on morning odds (not a DNQ next to name) and using said morning odds (not BOG) and BFSP (before commission)…

Trainer Profiles: 2/10,5p, +4.25, +4.05 BFSP

Other Micro Angles: 5/14, 7p, +9.33, +13.4 BFSP

Horses to follow: 0/2,0p, -2

So… 7/26, 12p, +11.58, +15.45 BFSP

Any qualifier that was also Top 4 in Horse Race Base Ratings (H1/2/3/4)… 3/9, 6p, +7, +11.96 BFSP

Obviously I’d be delighted if those results repeated every 26 bets. We can dream! Time will tell, but i’m pleased they’re highlighting overpriced winners and given the logic, and mix of methods/ideas, there’s every hope they might.ย  ‘Week 2’ started well, with a 28/1 & 2/1 (H1) BFSP winners. And for now, i’ll ignore my flat tipping – not much to shout about there as yet.

‘DNQ’ – Should we ignore the market completely this season?? ‘DNQ’ย  is for results purposes for the angles as researched – maybe this season the market doesn’t mean as much as the past, certainly early season – for using as a ‘way in’ any price cap should be some sort of guide, but you can see in the Trainer Profiles Report (HERE>>>) the record of the angles when horses are sent off above X. For example Ian Williams’ runners sent off 10/1+ within his angle were 2/89, -53 before Shady McCoy won at 12s. That’s how it goes ๐Ÿ™‚ But Beckett had one go in 25s>16s (14s odds ‘cap’), Copper Knight nearly won at 12s>28s… and for example Robert Cowell’s sire angle winner… well before that he was 1/288 with all horses sent off 22/1+ since start of 2015! (the sire angle has no odds cap, and that one isn’t trainer based, well done if you had a nibble!) Maybe some connections don’t know where their horses are at and the market isn’t much of a guide at all in the early part of this season, of which there’s some logic to that – esp with no ‘paddock watchers’ and on course betting etc. Any ‘market’ thoughts welcome. I am tracking the performance of ‘DNQ’ horses but given some of those that have won/gone close, maybe even more caution and not using them as strict guide than would otherwise be the case. If indeed you were.

 

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Trainers/ Sires Report

I’ve had a couple of requests for the research behind the ‘Trainer/Sires’ and ‘Sire/Breeding’ angles…

You can find that HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. A decent day on Monday with 2 winners at 3/1 & 4/1 from 5 selections and so more profit added.

    Trainers in form – well…on Monday Johnston was 0/14, Gosden 0/3 and Balding 0/3. Other trainers to follow – Richard Hughes; Ralph Beckett; Archie Watson; C & M Appleby; Roger Varian; Micj Channon.

    Tuesdays picks:
    2.45 HP, The Daley Express 16/1;
    5.20 HP, Albaflora 7/2;
    5.30 WO, Shine That Light 7/1;
    6.45 CH, Declared Interest 4/1;
    7.15 CH, Calling The Wind 14/1.

    Good luck Martin

  2. I had been tracking Shady McCoy for 18 months and was trying to get 20s in the middle of the night to no avail! I ended up doubling my stake for the first time since resumption but this is not to boast (really) but to make the point that 12/1 max was not long enough imo for the horse today, because of its poor win rate. Other backers were out there in numbers for the horse, dropped in class and having ideal conditions.
    No criticism, Josh, rather that an informed collective mindset yields the best decisions in these events – at least, sometimes!
    I’m aiming to be around again over the coming days having been occupied with re-establishing my bank, though my confidence is hardly brimming, my trackers have helped me return to profit with only low stakes.

    1. Was he just kept in a tracker then Chris??
      itโ€™s some going that I donโ€™t follow any horses in that way waiting, what where the ideal conditions you were waiting for if you donโ€™t mind me asking iv just been looking back through his record
      Well done tho

    2. Well done. Well I’ve never had a problem with criticism, as long as it’s done with a smile. Yep I’ve been pondering the wisdom of the crowds theory… I should do some polls really for some of the content… See if the daily ‘most votes’ horse ends up doing any good, ensure the poll closes early enough etc. I’ll dabble in that at some point this week.

      As with any winner from the stats I’ve left, they get a long stare again afterwards. In fairness I’m not sure I’d have ever been close enough at 12s, (outside of say just backing them all blind)… The positives… Well on Instant Expert you could see he was proven and others were not. Did have some good runs last summer in fairness. Obv his mark had dropped through the floor and the whole premise of the Williams angle is homing in on horses like that, although not always so old.
      Kingscote booking also a positive… Obv it’s haydock but he had a good record on horse and IW doesnt use him that often. A great record when he does.
      The negs… Well yard form was a Q, as was horses record fresh in last 3/4 seasons although in fairness most of those stuck on high marks.
      In general I’m trying to stick to more lightly raced. That was like backing a 15 yo chaser haha.
      Still, I can see the case but that’s the game. Given me wanting to focus on my content I should prob simplify more and not over think, and I’ll be pondering that further.
      Some could rightly argue backing Shady in that sort of handicap is a better move than these 3YO only handicaps!
      Glad you landed on him. As long as someone reading lands on the winners I’m happy enough!

      1. Sorry Josh Iโ€™m trying to read back through things, do you have anywhere explaining the sire/breeding micro I canโ€™t find a link to it anywhere??
        Trying to set time aside now each night to look through things and looking back through all your new angles looks like youโ€™v been busy thereโ€™s some work gone into the trainer profiles!!!

        1. Well it is easy to miss things on here haha. I try and keep repeating various points… Do need to write a brief ‘user guide’.
          Anyway… The link to sires report is above, right at the bottom of the post!
          Ha, yea that took a while… More so in thinking as deep as I could about what and why etc, with a solid foundation that said trainers are just bloody good trainers of handicappers full stop.

          1. Sorry Josh bad one from me that iv gone looking back trying to find it in the new start bits and itโ€™s right on this fecking page

    3. Perhaps Shady is maturing with age? The break did him good. Won with a bit in hand.

      The sort of horse you would want to back at double figure odds, not one to trust at a short price.

      Following trainers in form and horses with form in the race class has worked out well since racing returned. We need to make the most of it whilst it lasts. There is always opportunity if you look for it.

      Happy punting.

  3. My venture with T/J combos yesterday proved reasonably successful. 3 places (2 had run before I could get them on here), 2 winners and 1 loser.
    Treble
    1.45 H Arctic Vega 15/8
    3.45 H Be more 9/4
    4.50 H Fiesta de Vega 11/4
    Singles
    7.30 W Mitrosonfire 6/1
    2.15 H Beauty Choice 7/1

    Yesterday I followed R Kingscote / T Dascombe combo just because it was Haydock so will continue with his 3 for tomorrow
    12.45 Devious Company
    2.15 Broadside Banner
    2.45 She Can Boogie

    Mike

      1. Hi Martin
        Probert/Harris is not on my list of T/J list min 30% SR but will be added for future.
        What are their SR over the last 12 months?

        Mike

          1. Yep, if there’s a TJC to not over think it’s probably that one…
            some big priced winners for all their rides and those sent off 16s+ are 10/158, 22p, +297 BFSP (does inc a 128/1 winner)
            Since start 2017, aged 3-7… 165 / 28 wins / 65p/ 17% / +77 SP/ +127 BFSP
            They do seem to just pop up, max losing runs of 17, 16, 14 all x1. C5/6 best but no doubt the odd biggie will keep falling in. Good find,
            GL

  4. Morning Guys,
    Good to see the usual suspects are here and hope all are ok. I thought a total break from racing would do me good but it’s been a bloody struggle over the last week or two to get my head into any semblance of order after sheltering.

    I’m having a go in the H 2.45 Acclaim The Nation , although going against MC may not be wise.
    GL

    1. Morning Mike, and hello! Good to see you back. Hopefully the pause that refreshes! This period was meant to be challenging! Although it prob won’t get any easier haha – a few have been picking winners and thankfully my new stats are ticking along ok for now. Onwards!

  5. ON THE BRIDLE
    2.45 Haydock Astro Jack
    3.45 Brian Epstein
    7.15 Chelmsford Collide
    prices are recorded by Sportsworld who have access to the bets earlier.

    Yesterday by eliminating 3yo only races had a far better day on my advisery service.
    Colin

  6. Hi …..12.45. Haydock Realist e/w..

    .logic is based on prices and pedigree…market suggests this is competitive and the trainers runners at the top of the market have to be respected with March Law a win only selection with SDS in the saddle…of the others, the two longer priced runners in Desert History and Clarendon Cross both deserve a mention as they have very good pedigrees…of the two I would favour Clarendon Cross but would not like to split them, hence the selection of Realist e/w…gd luck with whatever you are backing today…Silver

  7. A winner and 2 places yesterday but still the search for the holy grail known as profit continues!
    On to todays darts
    Ew l31
    L 1:30 willywampus
    L 2:30 tango
    H 2:15 brookside banner
    H 3:15 muscika
    W 8:30 cafe sydney

    Good luck everyone

  8. Very good Sunday
    Yesterday two stupid bets and very nice place 50/1 at Nass Maiden Stakes
    But if horse was second previous run at course with odds 16/1 then why not to try with higher odds.Simple logic thinking gave me award
    Today just two shots 5:45 CHELMSFORD Gallipoli can’t leave him at that price 25/1 is to much for that CD winner against mostly handicap debutants
    Next is 7:15 CHELMSFORD Pianissimo CD winner won here C2 race good speed and high chance to be at least placed
    I will look 2.45 Haydock Acclaim The Nation has good record after lay off but that race is so competitive

  9. Dubawi sire is performing great with 3 yo horses
    4. Best Tracks:
    Ascot, Bath, Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chepstow, Chester
    Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Hamilton, Leicester, Lingfield, Newmarket
    (Rowley)
    Redcar, Ripon, Salisbury, Southwell, Thirsk, Windsor, Wolverhampton
    York, Chelmsford City

    3.Trained by either:
    Charlie Appleby, A, Balding, R, Beckett, M, Bell, M, Botti
    M, Channon, Jane Chapple-Hyam, P, Chapple-Hyam, P, Cole
    S Crisford, Simon Dow, D, Elsworth, J Fanshawe, Charlie Fellowes
    J, Gosden, Paul Green, Richard Hannon, M, Johnston, D, Lanigan, N, Quinlan
    Sir Michael Stoute, Saeed Bin Suroor, N, Tinkler, R, Varian, N J, Vaughan,
    Archie Watson

    2019
    Bets 108
    Wins 33
    Win% 30.56
    Profit / Loss (SP) 15.88 Points
    ROI (SP) 14.7
    Profit / Loss (Betfair SP) 32.28 Points
    ROI ( Betfair) 29.89

    2018
    Bets 104
    Wins 27
    Win% 25.96
    Profit / Loss (SP) 28.53 Points
    ROI (SP) 27.43
    Profit / Loss (Betfair SP) 46.28 Points
    ROI ( Betfair) 44.5

    It has very constant betting stats from 2010

  10. ONLY ME .. JUST TESTING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME SYSTEMS ๐Ÿ˜‰
    FOR SOME EVENING FUN AT LGB TOWERS ๐Ÿ™‚
    NOT BETS OR NUFFINK ! ๐Ÿ™‚ (UNLESS THEY WIN OF COURSE ๐Ÿ™‚ )
    5.30 WOLVERHAMPTON = SHINE THAT LIGHT
    6.45 CHELMSFORD = GYPSY WHISPER E/W
    6.45 CHELMDFORD = DECLARED INTEREST
    7.00 WOLVERHAMPTON AUSTRALIS
    7.15 CHELMSFORD LAND OF OZ
    9.00 WOLVERHAMPTON GLOBAL ROCK E/W

    SOZ ABOUT MY NATURAL CAPITAL LETTERS – have fun !!
    lgb ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. yo mr mc in da house …. long time no squeak my friend ๐Ÿ™‚
        yep still spring cleaning the systems ..done 9 horses today in 10p and 20p doubles and trebles …. 3 winners 6 places …. still rreturned a profit and a great proofing test for me ๐Ÿ™‚

        should be firing on all cylinders soon .. as the race histories begin to take shape once again ๐Ÿ™‚
        speak tomoz
        laters
        mr gb :0
        not a capital in sight ! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  11. Hi Josh and all,

    Amy Murphy having a good bit of success, two big winners today. Anyone able to squirt some data through the sausage machine to shows anything useful ta?

    Cheers,

    1. Hi Nige, I will take another look, iv looked before but nothing too stand out esp given stage of career etc. And knowing a bit about how she trains… Suppose the fact they’re there to run their best, when they find key, is never a bad starting point. Those two today a mild surprise I think, esp given odds. But given profiles/race types/had time off /doing odd thing different, not exactly shock results. Alas I didn’t have a penny on.
      I can tell you the owner of Angels whisper who I know well, is expecting a big run from her in 4.50 Ponte. We shall see!

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