Daily Members Post: 08/06/20 (complete)

tipx1/write up, Blessed, , stats quals

1.Tips

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

3.Other Micro Angles

4.Horses to Follow

5.Other/Updates

*

1.Tips

Flat Tips

(0/3,0p, -3)

1.15 Hayd – Galadriel – 1 point win – 5/1 (WH/BV/UniB/Coral/BetF) UP 3/1

as of 08.55, write up at bottom of post… + a mention for an old favourite…

 

2.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

2.15 Hayd – Moon King (14/1<) H1 9/4  WON 9/4>2/1 , 3.15 BFSP 

3.50 Hayd -Shady Mccoy (9/1<) 12/1 DNQ WON 12/1

4.25 Hayd – Dusty Dream (7/1< guide) 4/1 UP 7/1

 

3.Other Micro Angles

Trainer/Sires

2.55 Naas – Allagar (25/1<) 10/1 UP (related to stayers, and didn’t have the pace to my eye, but did travel well I thought, not knocked about – one for 7f+ I suspect at this stage of career – Manning didn’t move for most of race)  

2.55 Naas – Verbal Fencing (25/1<) 50/1 DNQ UP

 

Sire/Breeding Angles

1.15 Hayd – Galadriel (any odds) H1 5/1  UP

1.45 Hayd – Ishvara (any) 25/1 WON 25/1 (40/1 SP) 28.4 BFSP 

 

4.Horses to Follow

None.

 

5.Other/Updates

/

Tip write up…

One for the Dutch Art filly angle (5-5.5f, good>soft) which is 24/83, 36p, +108 BFSP since start of 2015.

Firstly, the trainer… well Kevin Ryan is in ok form, plenty of his running well. His only winner to date was Oakenshield, also for this owner (and AA riding as retainer) and also in a 3YO only handicap. He bolted up in that race and with any luck this filly will do the same. Kevin R is also 6/25,11p here in the last year and he’s stated that he’ll be chasing black type with her this season. If she is a listed+ filly she should be going close against these.

The horse… well she’s unexposed but with a decent level of form to her name already. She ran an incredible race on debut at York, pitched into a listed contest – she didn’t know what to do, was out the back for most of the race but then it clicked, and she sliced through the field, finishing 4th. Coincidentally she easily beat Lady Quickstep in that (who came into it fit, on the back of a debut success). She was then pitched into the Albany (G3) at Royal Ascot, and ran well up the nearside until fading 1.5f from home. That was over a stiff 6f but she showed early/sustained pace to be up there, before fading. The fact they pitched her into those races is some indication of what they thought of her. They then ran her over 7f, before dropping right back to 5f, with some cut, where she hacked up at Beverley, never far off the pace. She finished her season in a deep C2 handicap at Donny over 7f, where again she didn’t seem to really get home, but was up there for a long way. She was only beaten 1l in 5th, the 1-2 from that would go onto place in group company. This race isn’t as deep as that, dropping down from that C2 into this C4.

I’d be disappointed if she wasn’t ready here, and i expect her to jump out and race up there. Conditions look ideal and she should prove herself to be much better than 80 this season, provided she’s trained on. Her form generally has a solid feel to it and I thought she was the one to beat here, her chance much better than 5/1 suggested. But, the market may well guide.

The dangers… well if she’s ready (which given her first run last season/who the owner is-Ryan will want to keep/increase his patronage / how their Oakensfield ran/how many of Ryan’s are running well) which I’ve assumed she will be at the price, I thought she’s much better than Sir Oliver, who looked short enough on what he’s done. But, he ran in Feb and Hughes is in fine form.

She has Lady Quickstep beat although the form of her last two runs has been franked. She should prove better than 80 and the market may guide as to her readiness… Kellaway is 1/50, 14p with her 60+ day returners in the last couple of years… 2/104, 22p with all her handicappers in the last 5. Predicting fitness with them is tricky! If she wins/goes well, she’s clearly one to follow, which she is anyway I think. Likewise Mick Easterby’s are hard to predict when making a return, 4/73, 12p with his flat handicappers, 60+ days, in the last 2 years. (although that improves to 3/16, 5p with 3 year olds) Still, he’s yet to get going, 0/8,1p since the action resumed.  He may want further also, but his last run was solid and something to build on.

Those 3 looked the most interesting/biggest dangers to my eyes, but I was happy to side with Kevin Ryan’s filly at 5s, who I think could be a class above these.

*

Blessed To Empress… 

(UP, ah, well, another one i’ve cursed there-  That’s her, although i’m not sure inside on the rail was place to be as it played out and then door shut/no chance with horse who finished 2nd. She travelled well for a long way but didn’t pick up. She’s one to follow in those moderate C6 hncps, as she will pop up, prob when least expected!) 

Elsewhere, an old favourite returns to Chelmsford in the 3.40. As many of you know I used to have a share in her – due to finances I suppose, I had to pick between her and Super, and given my jumps heart, I stuck with Super – the previous ownership was unable to re-sell shares in her. Amy owned a chunk anyway and kept her in the yard until one of her former owners (now a good friend, who also has shares in Super) who’s in love with Blessed, set up a new syndicate to keep her racing. (Empress Racing) A few of her previous owners are still involved. I suppose she’s a perfect syndicate horse (esp in ‘normal times’) as she takes plenty of racing, likes winning, likes competing and gives you a thrill more often than not. Anyway…

I recorded a short video preview for their owners and she does look to have a solid chance – she’s fit and ready to go – as always with her it can depend what mood she’s in – if she’s in competition mode, I think she’ll be bang there come the line. You can tell if she is by her pre race behaviour – if a bit too recalcitrant, possibly problems ahead – within the race, if she’s at it she usually looks as if she’s over-racing, enthusiastic. That’s a good sign with her. SDS has been booked, he knows her, has won on her, and will let her know who’s boss. He’s the perfect jockey for her and he should have her handy, in a no excuses position. (she has been slow away a few times mind) She looked at EW bet to nothing at 6s (now 5s), and i’ve had an ‘interest’ nibble EW. On known form, I think she’d be entitled to be fav and is hopefully sharper than a few of those around her in the market. She’s tough, likes winning/competing when in the mood and will be winning more C6 AW handicaps this winter. Do with that what you please! 🙂

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. A decent Sunday with a 4/1 winner and 2 losers and having backed Balding’s 4 runners.

    Trainers in form – well….Gosden and Johnston are having winners but they have lots of runners as well.
    Those with fewer runners but in form are – Beckett; Archie Watson; Haggas 2YO’s; Richard Hughes; Balding; Sir Mark Prescott selectively.

    Today’s picks:
    12.15 HP, Currency Exchange;
    1.00 CH, Kath’s Lustre;
    1.45 HP, Birkenhead;
    2.15 HP, Moon King;
    3.05 Chm, Striding Edge.

    Good luck Martin

    1. Another solid enough day there Martin, well done – started the season in fine form. Keep it going 🙂

  2. Bit late and 1 has already won but I want to put my ew lucky up each day I place them to keep me honest!

    H 12:15 fast start
    H 12:45 powertrain
    H 4:55 duke of condicote
    N 4:30 inflection point
    L 4:45 key look

    2 places yesterday. The search for profit/ hope continues!

    Good luck everyone

    1. quite, I couldn’t have asked for much better from the stats… you never know how they’ll perform in real life but first 8 days have been solid, they were 7/26, 12p, +11.58 on morning odds, +15 BFSP. Early days but something to build on.
      Those with a H1/2/3/4… 3/9,6p, +7, +12 BFSP.
      I should learn my lesson and stop ‘tipping’ in 3YO only handicaps, too much guesswork, even more so this stage of season – trust in the stats and just have some fun with those! Alas, I didn’t have a penny on her sadyly, hope you and some others did.

      1. Have made the same error by tipping 3yo’s, afraid a race of 3yo’s you do not know which one as trained on from a 2yo, and definetly not worth the risk after a lengthy delay from its last run.
        Kicked myself up the bum this morning to stop backing 3yo’s especially in 3yo only races.
        Colin

        1. It’s so tricky isn’t it – yep you really don’t know how much they’ve trained on and clearly 2YO form only tells you so much. At least today mine ran better than the other two, which isn’t saying much. But yep, caution in early weeks anyway but 4yo+ may be best route for now, which I know anyway – but for some reason it hasn’t stopped me. Still, not much damage done, and given how the stats are ticking along I shouldn’t be greedy. Best to be disciplined and use the races for educational purposes/ building up a picture etc.
          Nice to see Robert Cowel improved on his 1/288 record with horses sent off at 22/1+ SP in recent years!

  3. I have been following some T/J combos from stats over the last 12 months.
    There have been 2 3rd places so far today at shortish prices so here are the remaining selections.

    4.25 H Win o clock 6/1 J Watson/ R Charlton
    4.55 H Selecto 8/1 As above// Bharani Star A Artzeni/ P Chapple Hyam 5/2 the latter was withdrawn yesterday.
    4.45 L Min Choix 9/4 Oisin Murphy/ A Balding
    7.20 L Sneaky Peek 4/1 as above

    Good Luck
    Mike

  4. Hi Josh, well what can I say, lockdown and a change of tactics/ direction has certainly worked well for you…..well done to you!! I’ve been backing everything to small stakes and showing a really nice profit. Some really nice prices Josh, pot building nicely, thankyou. Keep up the great work,
    Kind regards, Tom.

    1. Thanks Tom, yep that time to switch off, then to ponder, and read, and ponder further how I could improve the stats content, which has always been the foundation here really, has so far been worthwhile. It is early days but particulaly pleased with the sire angles. An exciting area to explore further, and when improvement/performance can come from ‘blood’ and not ‘form’ you will get some nice prices. Still. I won’t get ahead of myself but the first 8 days couldn’t have gone any better with the stats. Obv the odd winner above ‘odds caps’ which is something to think about. It could be they’re best ignored for first half of season as a min.
      And also it’s not an overwhelming number of qualifiers as yet which I’m always conscious of. Once some ‘horses to follow’ start appearing it should be a solid portfolio.
      Starting small and building is the way to do it, with whatever approach but even more so unproven systems in real live. Although that’s the most confident I’ve been on ‘logic’/quality of research. But it is only one week.
      And I need to start backing some more haha. Think id best follow your approach!
      Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.