Daily Members Post: 06/06/20 (complete)

1.Tips

2.Monthly Trainers

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.Other Micro Angles

5.Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

Flat Tip

(0/2,0p, -2)

#1 – 5.55 Newm – Calculation – 1 point win – 6/1 (betS/BV/PP) 11/2 (others) UP

That’s all for tips today, write up…

This unexposed Dubawi gelding, son of Estimate, looked worth a go at 6s for the ‘Trainer Profiles’ Stoute angle that is 23/60, 32p +131 BFSP in the last five seasons. Hopefully he can add to those stats. There are no concerns with stable form, Stout 4/12,8p since resumption, 3/4,4p in handicaps. He’s also done well at the Newmarket tracks in the last year.

I’d be surprised if he doesn’t prove himself better than his mark this season, (did post a RPR 97 two starts back also) and while it’s a cliche, Stoutes patient approach can lead to plenty of his improving with age. Some of his races have worked out well enough and he stays well. He does want further than this but he’s tactically versatile and when he was hacking up last June-Aug he showed plenty of gears at times, and suggested there’s plenty more to come. Hopefully Ryan is aggressive enough as if it’s game day, he could draw the sting out of many in here. The fact the visor is on (3/4) suggests he’s here to run his race. His last run of the season at Haydock came quick enough and it was in the softest ground he’s faced – and the premise of my Stoute angle suggests we shouldn’t be deterred by heavy defeats LTO. This 4yo+ C2 isn’t anywhere near as deep as that one (3YO only, 62k) and he had subsequent winners in and around him.  He’s got plenty of untapped potential as a stayer this year and I was excited to see what he could do. 6s looked a couple of points too big in this line up.

The main danger? Well you’d have to say Nate The Great, 7s into 3s, backed as if defeat is out of the question – maybe it is, but the selection should give him something to think about. First start for the red hot Balding yard, handicap debut – you can see the case given his mark, and the drop in class – but he does have a question or two but like many horses, they can fail to fire as 3YOs before returning to progressive ways aged 4+. Still, I didn’t think he was a shoe in here, but I had it as between the two of them  – well, they looked the most interesting/likely to be ready/in-form yards/stamina assured/unexposed. The rest had too many questions for me at the prices.

Pace/position-  over this CD you basically don’t want to be held up, but anywhere else is fine – he can lead, track the pace or sit mid-div, so i’ll trust in Ryan to get it right. It’s been hard to come from behind here this week, and unless the wind direction has flipped, you will want to be handy enough. But his versatility and ability to change gears should be a plus.

GL with any bets, as always.

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2.Monthly Trainers

None, they’ll return in September. (i’ll post this message for the rest of the week and then just remove this section until Sept) 

 

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

All Newmarket…

1.15 – Copper Knight (9/1<) 14/1 DNQ (2nd, SH, 28/1)

1.15 – Count Dorsay (9/1<) H1 5/1 3rd 

4.10 – Montatham (7/1< guide) H3 9/4  WON 9/4  2.25/1 (5/2 SP) 

4.45 – Nahaarr (13/2<) 13/8 UP

5.55 – Calculation (14/1< guide) 6/1 UP

 

4.Other Micro Angles

Newcastle Sires (20/1<)

2.40 – Ispolini 6/1 UP

 

5.Horses to Follow

None.

 

6.Other/Updates

Newmarket Trainer Big Race Records

Trainers to have won race previously, with runners… (HRB ratings for handicaps only) 

1.50 

  • Shades Of Blue
  • Queens Gift

2.25

  • Terebellum
  • Magic Lily
  • Queen Power
  • Ardiente

3.00

  • Punctuation
  • Volkan Star

3.35

  • Arizona / Wichita/ Royal Dornoch
  • New World Tapestry
  • Mums Tipple

5.20

  • Lazuli H3
  • Endowed
  • Jouska H1

5.55

  • Nate The Great
  • The Trader
  • Amazing Red

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Newmarket Front Runners?

I’ve had a look through Geegeez Pace maps for Saturday, and Newmarket in particular given the number of front runners who’ve won to date. There was a strong tailwind on Friday, and they move to the ‘stand-side course’ – what the wind does, and whether it pays to front run again, remains to be seen… the horses listed below are simply using the pace maps, and who’s likely to front run (if adopting usual tactics). That’s it, no assessment of their form or suitability to conditions etc. I’ll leave that to you! 🙂  I’ve left the big one, and the 5.20 which on paper had a few that can go forward. 

1.15 – Copper Knight / Leodis Dream

1.50 – Ornate / Major Jumbo

2.25 – Terebellum

3.00 – The First King / Volkan Star

4.10- Alfred Boucher

4.45- Three Saints Bay

5.55 – The Trader

**

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Just 2 places (including a 20/1 2nd) from 4 runners on Friday.

    I have Arizona at 9/1 and Mums Tipple at 69/1 in the 2,000 Guineas and I will leave those to run against Pinatubo.

    My four for Saturday are:

    1.15 Nkt, Leodis Dream 7/1;
    1.50 Nkt, Ornate 25/1;
    4.30 Nc, Youneverletmedown 12/1;
    5.20 Nkt, Lazuli 3/1.

    Trainers in form – Archie Watson; Appleby; Johnston; Gosden; Roger Teal. Friday was a no winner day for Andrew Balding but may just be a blip?

    Good luck Martin

    Martin Colwell 05/06/20 9:23 PM Reply


    • And for those of you who like to watch U.S. racing in the evening I have done some tipping for an American site at Santa Anita.

      Crystal Water Stakes – Ward N Jerry and Brando The Bartender – both to win and in an exacta against the short priced favourite.

      Cinema Stakes – Hariboux – progressive horse.

      Oaks – Merneith – tight race though.

      Hollywood Cup – Midcourt – his profile fits this race.

      Derby – Honor A.P. to get the better of Authentic.

      Good luck Martin

      Martin Colwell 06/06/20 8:09 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin,
        Just watched your last tip at Santa Anita win.
        Well done my man!
        Ash

        Ash 07/06/20 12:28 AM Reply


  • my 1.50 Newmarket Queens Gift
    maybe 1.15 Newmarket – Stone of Destiny depend on price to short
    5:55 NEWMARKET Byron Flyer 12/1 very much overpriced
    Problem with all of them is that any of them won after break
    2.40 newcastle Withhold 4/1 8 runs 5 wins 1 place on distance best is that won twice after break on course also
    i have Royal Dornoch on 2,000 Guineas .Had impressive run here on 2 yo race.Maybe future star

    Pab 05/06/20 11:05 PM Reply


  • Hope everyone is ok
    iv not had a bet since the virtual National
    Was looking forward to the racing today as seen it’s when the Group1s start
    Thought that Cornation Cup was a strange line up, didn’t know what to make of it pre race and never seen much of that Gayyaith but after watching everything back today you don’t see many horses hit the front and pull like that and stay on to win

    Not felt the urge to have a bet yet and with everything being First time out maybe it’s best to watch these first few weeks

    Tomorrow’s big race just a watch, surely any picks will all be mostly guesswork but looking forward to seeing it unfold

    Ryan Mercer 05/06/20 11:38 PM Reply


    • Good to hear from you Ryan. That sounds like a wise approach! Plenty of educated guesswork required but still, winners to be found and some have been rewarded for their bravery.
      Today should be informative for the future anyway, and it’s always exciting to watch classy horses in operation – Pinatubu bolting up would set up the season well, at the top level. We shall see if he’s trained on or not, could be some monster if he has.

      Josh 06/06/20 10:15 AM Reply


  • some sensible advice yesterday thank you and you were all right about geegeez gold it’s well worth the money just for the amount of time it saves and even if just a “hobby” not that expensive, on to today.
    The big one NM3-35 . take out the favourite and it’s left me 3 biggies for a bit of ew fun, Royal Dornoch, Kenzai Warrior and Mum’s Tipple.
    1-50. Well Done Fox @25-1 looks a bit of ew value as does Cherokee Trail 33-1 in the 3-00.
    I think that’s enough stupidity for today 🙂 good luck all.

    martin whittle 06/06/20 8:26 AM Reply


  • ON THE BRIDLE

    6.05 Lingfield Emraan
    7.15 Lingfield Juanito Chico
    Colin

    cleafe 06/06/20 10:09 AM Reply


  • Three for today.
    Count D’orsay e.w. 1.15 N
    Only time out of the frame was at York in an apprentice h/cap,otherwise solid form and Tim Easterby sending him down to headquarters is a tip in itself.
    Far Above 1.50
    3 wins from 4 and a convincing winner on last start in Deauville,will need to progress again but deserves the chance and seems well supported in the market to do so. Trainer has started the season in form which is a bonus.
    Al Aasy e.w. 3.00
    Stable in form and ran with plenty of promise and the step in trip should bring about more improvement being out of Sea The Stars.

    DAVID DICKINSON 06/06/20 10:52 AM Reply


  • Reminded for what the red symbols indicate, next to any qualifiers… Horse Race Base ratings… Top rated (h1) win 20% all flat handicaps. The top 4 (h1/2/3/4) win 62% of all flat handicaps, 56% 12 runner flat hncps. Can’t back blind obv but just added info to use/ignore as you please.

    Josh 06/06/20 11:04 AM Reply


  • 2 places yesterday. Thinking of putting names on a dartboard but I’d probably miss the board!
    Todays donation to the bookies unl 31.
    Newc 2:05 red bond
    Newc 6:15 gabrials boy
    Newm 3:35 mums tipple
    Ling 4:55 madrinho
    Ling 8:25 single

    Good luck everyone

    Leif Collins 06/06/20 11:31 AM Reply


  • Hi…Newcastle sires progeny running today that are on Josh’s original list:
    1.30. Tadeel…………………………Dark Angel
    2.05. King of Tonga……………….Dark Angel
    Calder Prince……………….Dark Angel
    Lord Oberon……………….. Mayson.
    Rousayan…………………….Invincible Spirit
    Salateen ……………………..Dutch Art.
    2.40. Royal Line……………………Dubawi
    Ispolini……………………….Dubawi.
    Alright Sunshine……………Casamento
    Kings Advice…………………Frankel
    Jeremiah……………………..Kheleyf.
    3.50. Tantastic……………………..Mayson
    4.30 Lara Silvia…………………….Casamento
    Youneverletmedown……….Fottstepsinthesand.
    6.15. Global Art…………………….Dutch Art.

    Have taken a look at the 12.55 Newcastle and would not put anyone off backing any of the top three in the market…Jockeys and trainers plus stallion on going a distance fine but at the prices cannot back them at such short prices so a couple at each way prices may out run their odds to place but they are speculative…Ventura Mutiny and Jigs Princess…gd luck with whatever you are backing today. Silver

    silver 06/06/20 12:12 PM Reply


  • Would love to see a star performance from Pinatubo, but e/w play is Royal Dornoch 40/1 – I can’t understand the price vs Kameko who he beat over C+D last year??

    James Barker 06/06/20 12:32 PM Reply


    • That explains the price difference!! They knew what they had!

      James Barker 06/06/20 4:08 PM Reply


  • Tentative selections today, my have another look tomorrow as everyone knows what my flat record is like, good to have the old crew tipping again though!

    13:50 Newmarket
    SHADES OF BLUE 1pt win 5/1 365
    QUEENS GIFT 1pt win 12/1 gen

    15:35 Newmarket
    WICHITA 1pt win 8/1 gen
    MUMS TIPPLE 1pt win 33/1 gen

    14:40 Newcastle
    PRINCE OF ARRAN 1pt win 10/1 gen
    MILDENBERGER 1pt win 11/2 gen

    hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today. no time for write ups today, but, will have a look later for tomorrow with explanations.

    Stewart 06/06/20 12:35 PM Reply


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