Daily Members Post: 05/06/20 (complete)

upd3, + trainer form table

1.Tips

2.Monthly Trainers

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.Other Micro Angles

5.Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

Flat Tip

(0/1,0p, -1)

None on Friday.

 

2.Monthly Trainers

None, they’ll return in September. (i’ll post this message for the rest of the week and then just remove this section until Sept) 

 

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

1.50 Newm – Staxton – (9/1<) 16/1 DNQ UP, 9/1  (line of blue on odds-checker though, be interesting to see if he continues to come in) How i’m recording ‘result’s for these micros is explained below… if using as a ‘starting point’ the ‘DNQ’ is less relevant!) 

 

4.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

5.Horses to Follow

None.

 

6.Other/Updates

 

Colin’s Elite Service – the site which hosts his Elite/Tip Top picks is back up and running, and can be found HERE>>>

*

Micro musing…

Sunset Breeze… a solid start for the ‘Newcastle Sires’ report, now 2/9,4p, +2.5 . If it could repeat those figures every 9 bets, as a minimum, i’d be pleased. Obviously I had a look at him but 3YO only handicaps, esp C5/6 and first run of season – well, a bit too far from my punting comfort zone – and I thought he may want further! I’d be surprised if they didn’t step him up to 7f+ next time, and I suspect he’s well ahead of his mark. However, something useful for the future would be good, looking back only gets you so far…

For more regular All-Weather players, his win did add to the following micro angle you may wish to note, and which took 30 seconds to find in Geegeez

Newcastle AW / Sir Mark Prescott / Luke Morris / Horse Aged 3  >>>

36 bets / 12 wins / 22p (inc wins) / 33% sr / +43 SP 

Solid.

When it comes to results, I will be using prices that I record next to the horse in the morning, between 8-9am to guide the ‘official’ results for the micro angles, and if a horse doesn’t qualify on ‘morning odds’ it will get a DNQ next to their name (Does Not Qualify). Of course, there’s nothing stopping you monitoring prices through the day if you can – some will drift out, some will be backed in, but recording results based on monitoring prices up to the off isn’t that practical or a fair reflection of their utility. I try and find as many as possible without odds caps, or ‘guide’ prices, but the reality is that the market/price is important for plenty of them. Something for me to keep an eye on.

I’m also not going to bother with BOG anymore – results will be recorded at the gen available price I add next to them, and also BFSP. Such is the disparity/difference in bookie terms (esp when you can access BOG) and various restrictions, doing so in today’s climate would be disingenuous I think. That will be the same for my tips also. We shall see how that goes.

 

Finally…

H1/H2/H3/H4 

I explained these ratings in the ‘My Plan’ Video/Post (HERE>>>) but they’re the only ones i’m using next to the daily content for now. 

Horse Race Base Top Rated (H1) win 20% of all flat handicaps.  The Top 4, win 62% of all flat handicaps, 56% in 12 runner flat handicaps.

So, some sort of guide. I’ll be tracking how qualifiers perform when they have those ratings next to them. (1/3,2p, +2.5 so far) They may prove to be a useful ‘strategy’ but certainly should help shortlisting and they help add more context to deliberations, without making the content too confusing! 🙂

**

Trainer form.. i’ve taken the below from Simon Rowlands, who tweeted it (and I assume compiled it) – for interest, and some small samples, but interesting nonetheless… looking at % of rivals beaten…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. The Horse Race Base Top Rated (H1) rings true for AW Hcaps too which generally fare much better to BFSP than the Flat. You could back the AW cappers blind up to around a mile or just over for a 3% ROI. These stats are from 1/1/19 to lockdown covering 3134 races pretty much an equal split between the two codes. Field size makes no diference regarding AW and class is difficult to pin down with no clear bias.

    1. Just to add that if following AW top rated (H1) using conditions as above, horses rated between around 10 and 20 above 2nd highest rating are best.

      1. Royal Dynasty in the 5:00 @ Lingfield is a snug fit to my waffle, maybe Corvair in the 2:05 as well but that’s 3yo only.

  2. One winner from four on Thursday at 11/2, so another profit.

    I am still sticking to trainer and horse course form and winning form in the class of the race.

    1.50 Nkt, Flavius Titus 8/1;
    2.05 LP, Grove Ferry 10/1;
    3.00 Nkt, Daween 14/1;
    5.35 LP, Caspian Queen 20/1.

    Trainers in form whose runners need a closer look – Balding, Johnston, Gosden, Prescott.

    Good luck Martin

  3. a couple of win bets placed today,
    L2-05. Huboor @6.6
    N6-30. Spirit Of May @7.6
    only time will tell if iv’e guessed the market right or not.
    Everything else i’m looking at today are at ew prices and i’ll wait for bog unless i see something massively overpriced.
    I do like the other Martin’s pick in the 1-50 Flavius Titus, also looking at 3-00 Mythical Magic and a favourite of mine Intisaab in the 5-55.
    everything else iv’e noted down is highly speculative.
    On a general note i have found myself thinking deeply about whether i want to carry on betting at such a high level or tone down to fun bet stakes only, with subscription services starting back up do i really want to go back to paying out for tipping and geegeez gold with the added pressure of making enough profit to cover those costs, perhaps it’s just this health crisis that has made me focus on what’s really important and the realization that beating the bookie isn’t the be all and end all of everything.
    Sorry for the seriousness but sometimes it’s good to get your thought’s written down.

    1. Now I only bet on sports I can make a profit on through my hard work over the years – they are golf, horse racing, League 1 & 2 football and the NFL. But it is a full time thing for me. I can only make bigger profit from the first two these days. I do enjoy it but know I would no longer enjoy the fun stakes stuff. Perhaps that is an age thing?

      Geegeez is very good value at circa £200 per year. I would only drop it if you wanted to not put the time in to study. It is an excellent product.

      The important thing though is betting is not compulsory and so if you do not enjoy it the answer is simple. Or maybe just take a break? The guys on RTP seem to enjoy it enough to ramble on with the thoughts that their brains churns out, which is always good stuff.

      Good luck Martin.

    2. Yep, always a tricky area.

      I think for anyone you need to assess what you enjoy, and why – and then you behave accordingly. Martin is more at the pro income end and on here you have all the way through to the hobbyists – that is, those that are happy to set a budget per year – (inc on tools, whatever they may be, buying a paper, RP online etc) and if it goes, it goes – there’s nothing wrong with that.
      I spent plenty of time in lockdown pondering ‘why’ , what drives me in horse racing, why I enjoy it, what I want to achieve etc.
      There are many factors which feed into my experience- but ultimately if I didn’t enjoy it, and it didn’t make me smile, or give me experiences/moments to remember etc, I wouldn’t bother. Outside of any betting element – winning in long term, whatever the stakes, is just a result of meeting the challenge, and being good at it etc.
      You need to work out what gives you the buzz , answering ‘why’ or thinking about it, and go from there.
      If you just want to have fun, and for you that’s X amount on a small accumulator a few days a week, with a budget of X that you’re happy to lose, then crack on – you may not need tool X to do that.

      I always think you need to be content to lose X, financially, not happy to do so of course, but as soon as you think about losses in monetary terms, or amount you’re ‘investing’, I think that suggests it may be too high.
      It is an intense game also, and taking odd day away from it is important, and something i’ll be doing more off in months ahead.

      Josh

      p.s – oh and you can still take it seriously with smaller /fun stakes, if you get a buzz from solving the puzzle etc

      1. I only bet to fun stakes but would not be without Gee Geez Gold. Also saves buying RP as spotlight form comments, the only RP element I value, are included on Gee Geez race cards

  4. andrew baldings horse on fire at the moment. runs 3 at newmarket. oisin murphy goes to lingfield to ride berkshire rocco. value may have gone now though

    1. Unlucky there. Berkshire Rocco only beaten by a potentially very good horse, with the pair miles clear of the rest

  5. 2 places in the unlucky 31 yesterday. I did say it was a bad thing I had a good feeling! Today I’m feeling numb from how poor they’ve been!
    Todays little beauties
    N 1:15 thanielle
    N 2:25 keystroke
    N 1:50 open wide
    N 6:30 ice lord
    L 5:35 dark regard

    Good luck everyone!

  6. Today started off enthusiastically as I am in the non professional category and enjoy the challenge of solving a problem but gradually, as this morning progressed, my enthusiasm waned and could have spent a more productive morning hoovering or literally doing something else as I selected a race to analyse ( in what are overall, tricky cards today)….Foolishly went for the 12.55 Lingfield class 5 to check if there was any value in opposing the short odds on Fav Mighty Ghurhka from the Archie Watson stable….I say foolishly, as this took me far longer than I anticipated and am non the wiser.

    If you are a professional, and your livelihood depends on the income, you have no choice but to persevere and power through the bad times…no doubt we have all had jobs that we hated but needed to do in order to pay the bills, support families etc.. but had to keep going for the sake of meeting financial commitments. No choice.

    However, if you are in a position to choose, from a financial perspective, but finding the process researching form etc, to try and predict winners but not enjoying the process then it is time to rethink your motivation. Time to take a break, or ease back on the time spent analysing form etc…..there is nothing worse than the realisation that something you once loved doing holds no attraction anymore and the enjoyment factor has completely disappeared. You just have to come to terms with that process and reflect upon why this has happened.

    I took a break after the flat season ended last year as I realised that jumps racing is less of an interest for me. The AW racing is generally low grade and gets repetitive and boring when there is no quality. Researching races etc., when your enthusiasm wanes or is completely non existent is soul destroying and does affect mental welfare in a negative manner so best not to continue.

    If you take a break for a period of time then you will know if this is temporary or not…if you start to miss the buzz and find yourself drifting back into it then go with the flow again and you may well rediscover the joy you felt at the outset and want to continue to be involved…if not, and you discover new things then that is the way to go….all the best

  7. Lucky 15 plus an ew acc

    4.25L Silver Dust
    5.00 L Royal Dynasty
    4.10 N Grandee
    3.35 N Anthony van Dyke

    Singles
    1.15 N Some Picture ew
    Wolfet ew
    3.35 N Broome ew

    Mike

    1. Occasionally – he’s taking it easy the first few weeks of the season, he may or may not post more frequently in future – he still reads/visits etc.

  8. Today may be the day to catch Gunmetal 5.55 Newmarket 10/3 – well handicapped, goes well fresh and this time of year

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