Daily Members Post: 03/06/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + notes/video preview

1.Tips

2.Monthly Trainers

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.Other Micro Angles

5.Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

Flat Tip

(0/1,0p, -1)

#1 4.15 Y – Rum Baba – 1 point win– 9/2 (WH/BV) 4/1 (gen) UP, -1

that’s all for tips today…

My ‘way in’ was obv the qualifiers below…he’s well related, unexposed, proven in conditions (ground/distance… first run track), has hot form galore suggesting he’s much better than 79 and is better than C4, tactically versatile/has speed but should be up there either trying to make all or tracking pace if others go on, some other supporting stats inc TJC and Fellowe’s does well enough at the track, and with horses after lengthy breaks- he can ready them. The obvious Q is fitness, but he’s not the biggest (according to trainer in Mark Howard’s book) which makes me think he shouldn’t take much work to get fit. I didn’t like the two above him at the prices, thought they had plenty of questions in context of price, and the selection has achieved more so far imo. The interesting ‘been there and done it’ horse, who’s a good record fresh and on his last winning mark, course form, etc is Balgair, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver there at 8s. Maybe a 1-2! Who knows. But he is open to attack from an unexposed, well handicapped sort, and the selection looks the best of those. I’d be surprised if he’s not winning on his next 3 starts, and hopefully today is the day. The market will guide I suspect, as to fitness/expectations.  A 13 minute preview, as short as I could make it… 🙂 

 

(as always, you can try the superb Geegeez Gold HERE>>> ) 

 

2.Monthly Trainers

None, they’ll return in September. (i’ll post this message for the rest of the week and then just remove this section until Sept) 

 

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.15 Y – Rum Baba (14/1< guide) UP

6.00 Y – Golden Force (14/1< guide) H3 3rd

 

4.Other Micro Angles

None.

 

5.Horses to Follow

None.

 

6.Other/Updates

A Super run yesterday from our girl – she likes running well at Kempton when sent off at 16s. On reflection she ran as well as could be hoped for really – she was in her comfort zone early, without over racing or using up too much energy – and that pace had her handy enough. At the time I was wondering if she could have gone further forward, but that use of energy may have led to a lesser effort later on. I’ll trust in Tom, I mean he’s pretty good. As expected, she then got outpaced on the turn for home as it quickened. But she stayed on right to the line and the winner did it cosily enough. An extra 2f would have helped. Still, a cracking run. A big gap back to the rest but I think most of those may have needed it/wanted much further. She’s clearly well handicapped on the flat also, to my eyes anyway. I suspect she will run on the level again, over 2m+ somewhere. I’ve always wanted to run her at Pontefract in one of their long distance handicaps, SDS dictating matters on or near the front. She’s got a C5/4 long distance flat/AW handicap in her. I doubt i’ll ever have a share in such a versatile horse again, so i’d best enjoy it! I know a few of you watched the video and also had a saver on the winner, given the Instant Expert etc. All in all, a decent afternoon and much to look forward to. 

There she is…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. R Varian.
    In the last three years. Roger has sent 14 first time handicappers to Yarmouth.
    7 have won, three came 2nd two came 3rd.
    Tomorrow he has three runners
    12:45 Union. and Naizagai 10/1 & 13/2
    5:25 Ikebana 9/2

    1. Useful stats there Ian, thanks for posting and GL. That 12.45 looks so so hot to the eye, could be a race worth following whatever the result.

    1. I think the trouble with horses to follow lists is that so many people have them therefore the value can easily be eroded or they could just be rubbish lists that throw up very few winners. I’d say that the more accessible the list to the public it’s even less likely there’ll be any value in following them.

      1. I would agree re horses to follow lists – they are usually not of much use for successful betting. My caveat would be finding unexposed three year old’s going into handicaps.

        Only one winner from four on Tuesday but at 15/2 it covers the losers. I will continue to go with course form for horse and trainer and class form for the horse as a guide. I agree re the Varian angle above and have one of his runners in my picks for Wednesday.

        12.45 Yar, Union 10/1;
        1.00 KP, Newyorkstateofmind 5/1;
        3.20 KP, Sea Fox 20/1;
        3.55 KP, Billesdon Brook 9/2.

        Smaller stakes this first week back. A few trainers in form I see. Gosden, Stoute and Johnston amongst the big boys having winners.

        Good luck Martin

        1. yep, it depends how you use them I suppose… I mean the ‘we like him, think he’s well handicapped’ sort of comment only gets you so far, and you have to judge that for yourself to a point also – but depends on the comments – those where connections explain a poor run, or muse as to a change in tactics or why they ran as they did, any niggles/excuses they had, whether they’ve grown over winter etc – some comments can provide useful context, but again, as with everything you can get too much information – not doubt plenty of 2/3 YO from the big yards are in a ‘horses to follow’ list somewhere! There are some interesting snippets in that Sporting Life column though, an interesting read if nothing else.

  2. Kempton Billesdon Brook 3.55
    Kempton 15:20 Oloroso 4/1
    Yarmouth 16 .15 Three horses can compete.City Wanderer prominent very impressive with best speed however 4lb higher from his last win.He still can manage.14/1 Balgair stayer won at course after break and Wind In My Sails prominent around 30s .Can be placed

    1. GL Pab and good to see you back – nice picking yesterday in Super’s race. Winner was fairly well on top come the line, an exciting last couple of furlongs. And thanks for adding a sentence with reasoning etc, always useful and appreciated.

  3. welcome back everyone hope you have all kept well, this is my lottery number system 🙂 with about as much chance of winning.
    Madeleine Bond @11/1 4:30 Kempton 0.50 EW @ 1/5 1-4 SP To return £7.60
    Catch My Breath @12/1 5:05 Kempton 0.50 EW @ 1/5 1-4 SP To return £8.20
    Lady Lynetta @28/1 12:45 Yarmouth 0.50 EW @ 1/5 1-4 SP To return £17.80
    Wind In My Sails @25/1 4:15 Yarmouth 0.50 EW @ 1/5 1-3 SP To return £16.00
    0.1 ew lucky 15
    total stake £7

  4. OF POSSIBLE INTEREST…

    You can access Colin’s Elite & Tip Top for free this month, via the free On Course Profits Magazine, which i occasionally write in (was the Betting School/insiders club etc, but now all under OCP magazine)

    Anyway, you can sign up for free here>>> https://bit.ly/3eJE9Yn

    Josh

  5. One winner and a place in the l15 yesterday so going in the right direction!
    Going for an ew lucky 31 today but at half the lucky 15 stakes so near enough the same stake.
    K 4:30 purgatory
    K3:55 billesdon brook
    K 2:10 lightness
    Y 1:20 hope is high
    Y 6:00 casina di notte

    Good luck everyone

    1. yep wd lc .. your secretario helped along with the super duper really REALLY SUPER 🙂 yesterday to go against my 2nd’s or 5th’s ….grrrrrrr …… i seemed to have too many recipes for my ovens at the mo 🙁
      where’s mc when u need him ?? em ..em ..emmm ?????
      keep having fun ..your on the brink of a L31 pay out 😉 !!!
      keep on smiling 🙂
      lgb

      1. You don’t need me GB! As I said months ago my AW methods don’t work as well in the summer. This is being borne out by the first few days of racing!

        I’m working on a few turf methodologies but will only inflict them on you after a few weeks trialling. Get those ovens fired up 🙂

      2. Haha hope so george but not to be today. When you and mc get your heads together you’re an unstoppable force but you’re both pretty good individually!

  6. An experiment, the starting point being class droppers.
    320 K Oloroso & sea fox
    600 Y Lady Dauphin & martineo

    Good luck all

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