Daily Members Post: 02/06/20 (complete)

Newc Quals x4! , inc Super notes/video…

1.Tips

2.Monthly Trainers

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

4.Other Micro Angles

5.Horses to Follow

6.Other/Updates

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1.Tips

None today.

 

2.Monthly Trainers

None, they’ll return in September.

 

3.Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

None, no turf racing.

 

4.Other Micro Angles

Newcastle Sires (20/1< SP)

(1/7,3p, -0.5)

Note: updated as of 8.28, x4 totalΒ Β 

1.20 N – Comin Through 40/1 DNQ

2.30 N – True Mason 11/1 UP

5.25 N – Swift Wing 9/1 2nd 14/1

6.00 N – Cape Cavali 7/2 3rd

 

 

5.Horses to Follow

Hot Form

5.05 K – Ned Pepper (1st run) 15/2 UP (awful run really, even if needing it a tad)

 

6.Other/Updates

You can read the ‘My Plan’ Post HERE>>> (which gives info on all the above/content plans moving forwards, inc a video overview)

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Really Super H1 – (5.05 K) –

She’s worth a small EW nibble at 6/1 or so… what’s my assessment…

  • I think she will be fit enough to win. She was being wound up for a target at Haydock in April when lockdown arrived, and has been kept ticking over since really. She will sharpen up for the run, as they all will I suspect, but she could be 90% fit, which may be good enough. She went close enough on her last Flat start, at Nottingham last April, off 186 days. And that was in a slightly better race than this. I think she will be fitter than that Notts run. That form is solid enough, the two in front of her low 80s animals…
  • I think she’s well handicapped/got something in hand – 5-10lbs maybe on the level. And she does have a touch of class for a C5 AW contest like this. The questions…
  • The track/surface is an unknown…her sires win/placed stats in race conditions, inc standard/slow, are solid, and she’s related to a few AW performers, inc her dam who won ‘on the sand’. So, there’s hope there. Maybe it’s what she’s always wanted!
  • The biggest question is probably over the trip – it is on the sharp side. Maybe the surface will slow it all down and bring stamina/fitness to the fore. There’s also a chance Tom Marquand can dictate, or in any case if she breaks well he’ll have the option to roust her along and be aggressive on the front end. As yet I don’t know what the instructions will be, but if I were giving them i’d want her to try and make all, wind it up and kick off the bend – but, she may not be quick enough around there to do that. Only one way to find out.
  • So, a few questions, but she’s also unexposed in conditions and i’m hopeful of a big run. She could win this, and she now knows how to win. When in the mood she’s a trier and likes a scrap. She could get outpace and run into a place. Or she could hate the surface/it happens too quickly in final 1/2 mile, and she runs respectfully in mid div.
  • Of the oppo- well they all have some questions in conditions. I like Ned Pepper for the future, but he either needs further or a more aggressive ride – i’m sure he’s got races in him, but hopefully they have him too far back, and/or this is a proper prep for a hurdle campaign. We shall see, the market may guide as to readiness. I think he’s much better than his mark. Secratario knows how to win, and around here. LTO winner, may be fitter than some although 60+ day record for previous trainers not great. But he’s had a more recent run than most. Does need to step forward again though up 3lb, and open to attack from something with a shade more class. There’s a few other interesting ones, and a few who also have better form over further. Super could have more pace than a few of them in here, even over this trip which is probably the bare minimum. But she has a turn of foot off a slow pace, so fingers crossed. It’s a winnable race. If she’s leading by 3-4L at any stage, winding it up, i’ll get excited as I don’t think she will stop. Given the niggles its hard to be bullish, but i’ll be having a small EW interest. If using a scale of confidence – if her Worcester hurdle wins were a 5/5, this would be a 2-3 i think. I was a 2/3 for Kempton though when she hacked up over fences! Her last start can be ignored, hated every minute of that heavy ground.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. After a good day one back, I will keep to the basis of good course form for horses and trainers and good class form for the horse. However I do like Ned Pepper and so have put him in, although I take on board Josh’s comments above.

    12.45 Nc, Tough Remedy 8/1;
    1.55 Nc, Bravo Faisal 20/1;
    3.20 KP, Meraas 15/2;
    5.05 KP, Ned Pepper 10/1.

    All good practice ahead of the better racing to come.

    1. GL Martin… well i’m not going to put you off him, and he’s being very well backed- i’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped, and he handles conditions… was just a question of fitness unknown, and more so his style – I suspect he’s grown more since when last seen, and if they could race him handier, they’d give him a better chance. Maybe last season was about educating him etc. If Super doesn’t go close, i hope he does bolt up for my ‘hot form’ eyes, and if I could guarantee that he’d have raced ‘up in the van’ i may have had a dilemma at that price. But hold up types around there can struggle over CD. He’ll probably now make all!!
      Anyway, the market suggests you’re onto one.

  2. Hi….The only micro qualifier is Swift Wing in the 5.25 at Newcastle as Josh points out. The other sires on Josh’s list do have progeny running even though they do NOT qualify may be of interest so here they are:
    12.45….Jack Star by Dark Angel
    Scottish Summit by Shamardal

    1,20. Fifth Position Dark Angel
    Firmanent Cape Cross
    Raydiance Mayson
    Comin ‘Through Fastnet Rock

    1.55. Jean Baptiste Invincible Spirit
    Borsdane Wood Invincible Spirit

    2.30. Glen Shiel Pivotal
    True Mason Mayson

    2.05. Strike Red Dark Angel
    Tatsthewaytodoit Mayson

    4.50. Country Carnival Mayson

    5.25. Swift Wing Pivotal…..Josh’s micro Qualifier

    6.00. Cape Cavalli Cape Cross
    Cockalorum Cape Cross.

    Those on the list are NOT bets but for information based on the previous post that gave added background details of sires acting on tapeta at Newcastle as researched by Josh, so just hope they are helpful for tomorrows card…all the best. Silver

  3. Hello,
    Regarding Newcastle sires,I have TRUE MASON and CAPE CAVALLI as qualifiers in section two of Josh’s research.
    Can anybody explain why they are not qualifiers?
    As far as I can see,the information I put into HRB is correct.
    Cheers
    Andy Ness

    1. Hi both, often in this situation, and with an angle that, rules wise, is simple enough, it’s best to assume I just haven’t saved it correctly!! Which would appear to be the case. For some reason I appear to have missed out 4/5 sires from angle 2. Not sure how that happened, maybe didn’t save it properly and resorted to an earlier version. Anyway, thanks for your eagle eyes. Always assume i’ve made an error, and always post a comment if you think i’ve missed something!
      Josh

      1. Josh,
        One last thing. I believe the qualifiers were 20/1 or below which would rule out COMIN THROUGH.
        Asking for a friend.
        Andy Ness

        1. Yep, the stats are sufficient enough to my eyes to leave those, but i’ll still post them. When it comes to recording results etc I think the fairest thing to do (for those with an odds cap) is to take the price I post, and if it’s bigger its DNQ, even if backed in etc as you can’t really be monitoring prices all day, but may be worth a check at lunchtime for some of them. Many will be comfortably within 20s.
          Josh

  4. ON THE BRIDLE

    1.55 Newcastle Overwrite 9/1
    5.05 Kempton Teaser 10/1
    5.05 Kempton Paddy The Chef 20/1
    Thats all for today
    Colin

  5. Hi Ladies and Gentlemen
    I am off after long time taking care of my 90 years old father so now racing is giving me some needed adrenaline
    So today racing my lets say Nap is 5.05 SECRATARIO 11/1 5.05 Kempton .He is also NB of AtTheraces speed ratings creator
    Lawmaking, 12.45 Newcastle 12/1 can be at
    least placed i hope.CD winner AW specialist .Good e/w bet at that price
    I can-t leave Arcanada 25/1 Kingscote/Dascombe .Good AW score never run on course
    my NB can be 1.55 N AYR HARBOUR 11/1 Cd winner at winning mark
    My best and best luck

    1. Hey Pab,
      Firstly, hope your dad is well and in good spirits.
      Well done on today’s tips. Keep up the good work.
      Have you any tips for tomorrow?
      Ash

      1. Hi Ash
        I have been browsing cards.There is nice horse at 16.15 Yar Balgair 14/1
        Looks like course specialist won here one year ago after lay off .Only one CD winner in that race
        There are good cards at Kempton very competitive .Maybe i will bet on Topology 17.05 20/1 Has to look how horse perform after break.There are two gosden horses 15.55 i think that with higher odds will win

  6. Thanks for the expanation Colin, that was what thought it was. Well done yesterday. Looking foreward to today. How is Tiptop going, is it as profitable as ever. Gordon

    1. Hi Gordon
      Yes Tip Top proving good Jan to 15 March + 37.5 and it had 4 bets yesterday 1 winner Queen of Kalahari so April has started well, however busy day today 7 bets.
      Colin.

      1. Colin,
        Can anyone sign up somewhere to receive Tip Top selections,or is it a closed syndicate?
        Cheers
        Andy Ness

        1. hi Andy, I do have a special RTP link for Colin’s services etc inc a discounted trial… however at the moment there’s a slight technical problem with the company that hosts Colin’s service etc, where the site isn’t working for now. The owner knows of the issue and hopefully fixed asap.
          But yet, Tip Top is packaged with Elite as one service, and On The Bridle being testing/posted on here etc.
          Josh

          1. Thanks for that Josh.
            Without realising it I can access Elite selections through a guest tipster website.
            Obviously I will be willing to pay for the selections once things are sorted.
            I believe Colin is from Sheffield,me too,so I’m more than happy to sign up.
            Cheers
            Andy Ness

          2. Hi clear,
            Can you please send me the link as and when.
            I am willing to subscribe as long as it’s not extortionate.
            Thanks.
            Ash

  7. Good Morning the GBster and fellow sandy fans. I’m not sure my AW methods will work in these strange days so I am sure we will all be treading carefully (except Martin and Colin who are obviously bang in form). Anyhow. I couldn’t resist War Cross (3.55 Kempton) EW, Trainer has excellent record with this jock and the price is too big for a 12 runner race.

    My other tentative EW play is Where’s Jeff (6.00 Newcastle). Comes out well on Geegeez Instant Expert, the attention on Medal Winner and Cape Caroli might make Jeff a decent EW price.

    Nowhere near confident just sharing thoughts πŸ™‚ good luck with all your bets.

    1. thanks MC war cross on my longer list ..lol πŸ˜‰
      keep warming up those pins my friend πŸ™‚
      lgb

  8. REST-O-RANT AFTERNOON DELIGHTS
    NOT TIPS – JUST TOP TABLE TIP-BITS OF DELIGHT FROM THE OVENS OF LGB TOWERS.
    *******************************************************************************
    1.20 Newcastle 1 Fifth Position (IRE)
    month / race type / trainer
    new system for trainers with 1 runner at course
    1.20 Newcastle 5 Firmament
    sire system
    1.20 Newcastle 12 Irreverent
    month / race type / trainer
    1.55 Newcastle 10 Ayr Harbour
    month / race type / trainer
    1.55 Newcastle 6 Custodian (IRE)
    month / race type / trainer / weight move system
    1.55 Newcastle 1 Yorkshire Gold
    month / race type / trainer
    4.30 Kempton 1 Hatcher (IRE)
    persoanl thought = can just see this making all and grinding the others down ?
    4.50 Newcastle 12 Winter Power (IRE)
    month / race type / trainer
    5.05 Kempton 1 Paddy The Chef (IRE)
    sire system
    5.25 Newcastle 5 Multellie
    month / race type / trainer

    and that’s the shortened list !! πŸ™‚
    Let’s not go mad today again πŸ™‚
    have fun as always πŸ™‚
    come on let’s all have a “REALLY SUPER” Day !!!! ( in a f/c with paddy the chef of course !! πŸ™‚ )

    LGB πŸ˜‰

  9. Well it’s safe to say the break has done me no good at all!
    Ew lucky 15
    N 1:55 ayr harbour
    N 6:00 big country
    K 5:05 secratario
    K 5:40 rocketeer

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