And They’re Off: My Plan

My content plan moving forwards…

 

Winning, learning and celebrating together…

When I started blogging in late 2013 my aim was to develop the best racing community around. A friendly family of racing fans, striving to win, learn and celebrate together. To create new experiences that one day we could tell our grandkids, or just boast about to our friends down the pub. A place racing fans could call home.

I’m sure you remember some of your big wins, maybe a small stakes accumulator or that 50/1 shot you picked out. The Grand National winner you told everyone to back. Or that horse you had a soft spot for who you so desperately wanted to win. And the joy that comes from solving the puzzle – the buzz of having read a horse/race to perfection; even more so if it’s a ‘big’ race, on a Saturday or at a Festival. Maybe you remember going racing with your parents or helping close friends have a memorable day out by tipping them a few winners. Or you’ve been lucky to own a share in a winning horse. There’s rarely a better feeling.

And then there’s the amazement of watching a wonder horse… ‘at the bushes, Frankel is 15 lengths clear!’

Horse racing makes life even more enjoyable and my mission is to add to your experience of this great sport, forging new memories. 

Yes, we want to back winners and make money in the long term, even to small stakes, but we want to enjoy the journey also. If we can’t, what’s the point? Racing is fun. 

At times in the last 12-14 months I’ve lost my way, for various reasons. But i’ll be doing my best to produce content, and an environment, that you want to engage with. I’m not sure that’s always been the case in recent months, but i’m nothing if not reflective and honest with myself. I’ve given my head a wobble and i’m once again looking forward with excitement. Hopefully you see a more enthusiastic and energetic me. 

Let’s go…

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Daily Members Posts: The Plan

Below I have detailed my plans for the ‘Daily Members Posts’ moving forwards. The first thing to say is that all my blog content, including these daily posts and all reports, will be ‘free to air’ for the foreseeable future, probably until the end of September at the earliest. So, for now, you’re a Racing to Profit Member – welcome to the club! : )

I thought I’d lay out my content plan for these free ‘Daily Members Posts’ so you know what to expect.

In short, if you have any interest in reading the daily content or engaging with the RTP family in the ‘comments’ section, then head to the blog, as regularly as you please. Just click ‘home’ and the newest post should be at the top. 

They’ll be a blog post every day, posted by 6pm the evening before (bar Monday’s post, which will usually follow on the morning) including ‘qualifiers’ from sections 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 below.  Any of my own ‘tips’ (section 1) will follow on the day of racing.

I try to provide unique content and opinions that puts you in control – you can use/follow my content in any way you please. And engage with the comments/the astute RTP tribe, in any way you please. 

Please NOTE: I’m planning on all content focusing on the Flat/AW until September. I’m not sure if this will be a permanent move in the future (Winter Jumps/ Summer Flat, with odd exception), but it may be. 

More detail on what you can find in these Daily Posts, and my additional posts, now follows…

 

Daily Members Post Structure

  1. Tips
  2. Monthly Trainers
  3. Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat
  4. Other Micro Angles
  5. Horses to Follow
  6. Other/Updates

 

TIPS

Moving forwards there will simply be ‘Flat’ tips, and ‘Jumps’ tips.

I will post any tips at 8am, 9am and 10am, on the day of racing. At least with those three timings you know when to look and you could just wait until after 10am, when you know nothing new will follow.

My ‘starting point’ for my Tips moving forward will be all my daily content and a focus on the 15 trainers detailed in my new report, ‘Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat’. 

 

Monthly Trainers

Since introduction in late 2019, these Monthly Trainer qualifiers have done very well to BFSP, including the 140/1 winner of the Betfair Hurdle in February. Even without that they were looking good, 50+ points or so.

I plan for them to be a regular feature moving forwards when the racing calendar returns to more ‘normal’ times. If there is one set of micro angles to start following with small stakes, I would recommend these. However…

Monthly Trainer angles will return in September, with ‘Twister Season’, which has pulled in 20-40 points for the last 3 seasons or so on the blog. I’ll find some Jumps trainers for November/December, we have Sue Smith for Jan/Feb again which did ok, and Nicholls in Feb which did brilliantly. 

This Flat season is far from ‘normal’ this year and that may affect trainers, and the times of year they would usually target. It may not, but i’ll leave them alone until jumps racing proper gets going. 

 

Trainer Profiles 2020: The Flat

Here I will post qualifiers from the micro angles within this new report (which you can read here>>>).

I’m cautious advising you dive in and back everything, with what I call ‘static’ research such as this.

These angles, results and the ‘logic’ look good on paper, but it is only historical research and must prove itself in real time. I have everything crossed that they will work as a ‘system’ in time. However, I will be using them as a ‘way in/starting point’ to help with my tipping as i’ve no doubt they will throw up plenty of winners. But of course, you’re free to do as you please, as with all of the content.

 

Other Micro Angles

Other assorted micro angles… Trainers / Jockeys / Breeding etc

Those angles added from research posts, (i.e. Micro Monday research) through the course of a season/year. Another ‘way in/starting point’ but again fingers crossed a few of the angles prove themselves in real time.

Those Flat/AW angles I will be posting include my Newcastle (AW) Sires Angles (Report HERE>>> ) and my Breeding Angles, from a previous members’ only report. I will share that in due course.

 

Horses to Follow

Eye-Catchers + Hot Form + Losing Tips  

Those horses from the ‘Tracker Tuesday’ posts that caught my eye from the previous week and/or are from ‘hot form races’.

Such qualifiers will be posted for their next 3 starts/stop at a winner. My hope is that these will be profitable systematically but again, another ‘way in/starting point’ (my jumps approach has highlighted plenty of winners) – I’ll be trying to land on a few with my Tips. I am excited about developing my ‘horses to follow’ eye, especially the ‘hot form’ and ‘hot races’ research, and maybe using sectional analysis to help explain certain performances. 

I will also post my ‘losing tips’ for their next three starts/stop at a winner. In theory, if I am generally focused on unexposed horses, that may have a ‘hot form’ element (suggesting they are well handicapped/have some class) many of them should be getting competitive asap. 

 

Other / Updates

A space for any general updates and any other information, including…

  • Really Super – any thoughts on the apply of my eye when she is entered to race etc. Having won four races for us so far, we hope for an exciting year ahead, for a horse who’s versatile and has wins in her on the flat, hurdles and chases.
  • Saturday/Festival ‘Big Race Trends’ & Trainer Pointers
    • Note: Given the nature of the Flat this season, there won’t be so many ‘big race trends’. On Thursday’s I usually post trends for 1 to 3 big Saturday handicaps, and this will commence in earnest for the main winter Jumps Season in October.
    • Big Race Trainer Pointers: I’ll aim to highlight trainer records for certain big races – they are creatures of habit and many target the same races, season after season- another good ‘way in’.
    • Festival Stats Pointers: In a normal Flat season there’s plenty of ‘Festivals’ in which I like researching various trainer pointers. There won’t be so much of that this Flat season, but I’ll see what I can do/what’s relevant.

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Additional Members Content (in addition to The Daily Members Posts)

Micro Monday Post – the regular research posts looking at trainers / jockeys / breeding and other areas of interest/suggestions. Some of the qualifiers from this research will be posted in the ‘Other Micro Angles’ section above, as is the case now. 

Tracker Tuesday Post – my musings on Horses to Follow from the previous week’s racing – using video and ‘hot form’ analysis, as well as other information.

Trends Thursday Post – my look ahead to the weekend’s ‘big races’, giving you plenty of time to use the stats/trends in your own deliberations. These focus on one or two big (c2+, 14/16+ runner) handicaps but may include other races of interest. They cover my unique stats/trends pointers and the trainer records. In Saturday’s Post (posted Friday evening by 6pm latest) I will provide any relevant trends ‘shortlists’ and detail the runners from trainers who’ve won the race previously. For this Flat season there will likely be fewer ‘trends’.

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Big Meeting/Festival reports – trainer pointers and relevant trends races of interest for various ‘big meetings’ throughout the year. This includes the focus on The Cheltenham Festival but also other Jumps Festivals/Meetings, as well as Flat Festivals (not this Flat season)

Other posts – ad hoc – other racing content & videos that don’t fit into any of those categories above. I can produce ‘how I do X’ videos for every aspect above, including research etc.

 

Nearly there…

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Ratings Pointers : Horse Race Base

I like to use ‘ratings pointers’ against all horses listed in the Daily Members’ Posts – these simply add more information to help solve the punting puzzle.

For the foreseeable future I will just be using Horse Race Base ratings. 

I will be using the Top 4 rated … so H1 (H is for HRB!), H2, H3, H4 

In all Flat handicaps, the top 4 rated in Horse Race Base ratings win approx. 62% of races, Top Rated (H1) win 20% of races.

In Flat handicaps with exactly 12 runners, the top 4 win 56% of races. 

You cannot just back such horses blind, but some sort of guide and of course you may just wish to focus on those with a  H1, H2, H3, H4, helping you to shortlist any of the daily qualifiers.

On further reflection/research I have ditched Geegeez speed ratings and Inform Speed Ratings, and I no longer use the latter – you can have too many numbers/figures in this game, and I think at times they may have been over-complicating my thinking. 

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I think that’s it for now. No doubt i’ve missed something. I’m very conscious of a ‘less is more’ approach within all those sections above, and a focus on quality over quantity. And not burning myself out. Thanks to 48h decs (and 72h for a while) on the flat, I can schedule Sunday’s post on the Friday afternoon. I do plan on taking Sunday’s off, which isn’t something i’ve ever done on here. But the relevant ‘qualifiers’ will still be posted. 

Oh, one final thing… i’m pondering ways to enhance the ‘community’ aspect of our little racing bubble. I’ve no firm ideas as yet, but when things get back to normal (prob latter half of next year…) I will look into RTP Race Days. I’m sure we could could get 20-50 of us descending on a track to cause mayhem. 

Thanks for reading, 

Cheers, Josh

P.S – the button below is for any donations, or if you wish to buy me a pint. I’m in a fortunate position where I don’t ‘need’ any money for the next few months and I won’t pretend I do. I’ve cut my expenses down quite considerably. Everything will be ‘free to air’ for a while, which is a conscious choice given this feels like a ‘post lock-down’ era, both for myself and the blog/content. I’ve got something to prove. Anyway, if you’re ever grateful for a certain report/post, a winner, or a good day on the horses, you’re free to click the green button. Obviously I don’t expect anything and the next few months may be challenging for many. I’ll try and bring some cheer. Thanks to the couple of you who’ve sent me something already, much appreciated. 

CLICK HERE TO SUPPORT JOSH & RTP

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Good stuff fella and great to see that you are back with your head in the right place it seems! Here’s to the next few months starting with a nice couple of winners tomorrow followed by our girl on Tuesday!!

  2. Excellent first post from the new you.
    Head properly screwed on and thinking positively is a good first step.
    Will the review section include a look at sectionals /pace elements culminating in a notebook entry?
    Slowly slowly catches winners lol
    Onwards and upwards Josh.

  3. Hi Josh,wishing you a lot of luck! and looking forward to your future posts.Only hope you have enough time to do it all! Regards Nick

    1. cheers Nick… ah it looks a lot when written out like that, but i’ll be trying to do ‘less is more’ with each bit, quantity over quality etc – but i’m conscious to get the balance right, as at times i’ve burnt myself out and then it just all gets a bit rubbish! But, the readers will judge.

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