On Your Marks, Get Set, Go?

 

Hello

On your marks (or mask?), get set, go … hopefully on Monday, provided racing gets the green light from the powers that be. It’s fair to say they’ll be plenty of racing to enjoy in the coming weeks, as it comes thick and fast. Plenty of it top class, especially next next weekend. (what a feast that is!)

Before racing returns I thought I’d take one final opportunity to highlight reports and poststhat you may have missed. There’s a list of them near the bottom of this email.

The excitement really is starting to build. Really Super (pictured, putting them to the sword at Kempton, her 4th win for us) returns on Tuesday for my fellow shareholders and I, provided she gets in. The plan is to start her on the AW at Kempton over 1m4f to blow the cobwebs away, as a prep for a return to jumps sometime in July.  I suspect she will sharpen up for the run and she’ll find that trip plenty short enough on the level. But, maybe she’ll surprise us! Hmm. 

I’d also like to say thank-you to those of you who still open these emails and read the blog from time to time. 1500 of you regularly open my emails and the blog’s had 2500 or so unique visitors in the last 6 weeks or so, which isn’t too bad and something to build on. That spurs me on to try and keep providing useful & informative content. 

In truth i’ve had a lacklustre 12-14 months (mentally if nothing else) where at times I’ve struggled to muster up enthusiasm, energy and focus. There’re a few reasons for that but it’s resulted in some rubbish content including over-complicating my approach. Less can be more. 

I’ve lacked drive and i’ve been drifting, to nowhere in particular. In part that’s because I’ve lacked some purpose, goals and a vision for the future – both on the blog and probably more generally. (shock horror when you lack those things, you drift). I’ve been on the ‘hamster wheel’ of racing, going day to day, and i’ve been thankful for the break – it’s allowed me to stop and just think about what i’m doing and why. 

You’ll pleased to hear I’ve spent ‘lockdown’ deep in thought and have re-lit the internal fire, and doused some petrol on to boot. After 13 wonderful, transformative years in Liverpool i’ve also relocated back down to Suffolk, which i’ve been pondering for 18 months or so, but doing little about. 

Whether this internal/mental re-programming leads to sunnier racing uplands in the months ahead, time will tell. But that’s the aim, and i’m excited to find out. 

On Sunday, i’ll set out the plan for content moving forwards. Everything will be ‘free to air’ for a while (at least 3 months, maybe 4) while I get my blogging house in order. And obviously when the ‘members club’ returns proper, they’ll still be plenty of quality free content to indulge in. I may even spend some of that time re-designing the website (well, paying someone, but it looks a bit tired/dated)

With that said, below i’ve listed various reports/posts you may wish to read…

REPORTS

  • Three ‘Hot Form’ Flat Horses to follow : READ HERE>>>

Note: ‘Qualifiers’ from all those reports will be posted on the blog

BLOG POSTS

(some of the most popular in recent weeks)

  • Nick Mordin ‘Winning Without Thinking’ : My Notes – READ HERE>>>
  • Top 10 Alternative Horses To Follow (Jumps): READ HERE>>>

Those, plus many more, can be found in the ‘Free Reports & Systems’ tab HERE>>

Right, I think that’s enough for one day! But a few things of interest there to muse on over the weekend 🙂

All the best

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Hi Josh…Hope all is well with you…Glad to hear the up beat tone of this prelude to racing beginning again blog…sounds as if the enforced break has rejuvenated you so at least something positive has come out of this current situation, tragic has it has been for thousands of people here and abroad…like a lot of participants on your blog racing research has probably been the prime activity over the past weeks to keep the mind active so will be interesting to hear from racing enthusiasts some aspects of the fruits of their labour if they are willing to share…I am sure, collectively, we will unearth nuggets of punting information that will be helpful to everyone who reads your blog…really glad you have kept this going under difficult circumstances…so many thanks for that….I did try to make a one off contribution for the free reports you have put up recently but was unable to do this via the links so is there any way this can be done now as you mentioned you had problems with pay pal?

    Given the racing industry will be gearing up for the anticipated start on June 1st there are bound to be offers around for those interested in taking them up…I have just been e-mailed by Proform racing…along with thousands of others no doubt …that All proform race guides from Monday 1st June to Friday 5th June will be FREE to access using current Proform login….I DO NOT subscribe as it is way too expensive for me and used to access this info for free via Betdaq (which have now ceased displaying the info) and did find it useful in the past especially the sire course, going and distance info ..so a freebie worth checking out….Mondays guides will be up on Friday 29th May by 4pm but not sure if you have to be a subscriber to access this..Glad you got your mojo back…all the best Silver

    silver 28/05/20 12:43 PM Reply


    • Hi John, yep all good here thanks – yes I mean obviously i’d have hoped for better circumstances in which to take a break/think in what has been an awful time for many, and will continue to be so for a while I suspect. However, that ‘non racing’ time off was much needed, and if i’d have carried on as I was i’d have been accelerating the decline of this blog etc. I’m sure they’ll be plenty of ideas flying around!

      yes I suspect many a decent service will be opening their doors for prolonged periods at discounted rates and plenty to get stuck into/experience, for those that wish to.

      Josh 28/05/20 4:58 PM Reply


      • John…
        I’ve been playing around with some of my new software etc – anyway, above you can see a new green button which you can click to support me/RTP, a pop up should appear with some options – so much more straightforward and user-friendly than paypal. I’ve tested it all with my own real money and all my systems work as they should.
        Josh

        Josh 29/05/20 1:25 PM Reply


        • Cheers Josh…will give it a go…

          silver 30/05/20 1:07 AM Reply


        • Definitely works…thanks!

          silver 30/05/20 1:12 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Some great stuff you have posted during the lockdown and looking forward to some racing on Monday.
    I think one aspect to the first week or 2 or 3 is tread/bet carefully as the long lay off could give surprising results. One that comes to mind is the usual start would have been on soft, good to soft conditions where they are now going to starting on good, good to firm and even firm going so will upset the stats if following stats from day 1.
    I’m not an expert like most posters on this site but it is one aspect of the NEW start to be considered. I’m sure there will be some expert comments to rubbish my theory? I look forward to seeing some if any.

    Good luck everyone on Monday would nice to hear if anyone does make a killing on the first day/weekend.

    Mike

    Michael Dennis 28/05/20 1:32 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,

      Thanks, glad you’ve enjoyed the content – it’s been fairly varied and plenty for people to get stuck into if they wish.

      Yep – i don’t know what will transpire really – I don’t want to make any assertions either way – obviously the 2yo/3yo have had more time to develop with no hard racing/training, so that’s another interesting dynamic. But many could still be mentally immature, race wise.

      Yep, those early season horses that may have wanted softer – well they may not have had it at any point this season anyway, and as long as ground is safe for them, a few trainers may use now to get their marks down for the older handicappers, have a break, then come back in the autumn etc. And/or more unexposed soft ground horses come autumn. There’s those small/agile early season 2 year olds who don’t take much to get fit, but are not open to progress- sadly for them, they may be now bumping into bigger/better horses. A few did get some racing in overseas at Meydan, so may have a fitness/experience edge to a point. I’m not sure that affects many but we shall see. And jockeys will be race rusty. And on and on.

      Still, there’s also a chance of over-thinking!!- but some will have timed their racing progs to perfection – but next week has been pencilled in for a few weeks now, and many will have been trained to a certain level of fitness, then ticked over, and then faster/harder work possibly in the last 2 weeks. Trainers will want to start winning and start getting prize money/pleasing owners / keeping business afloat etc.

      So, we shall see. Best have an open mind I think on all fronts.

      Josh

      Josh 28/05/20 5:08 PM Reply


  • Racing frustration this year the best ground we have had in April/May for many a year, typical no racing hey ho, but the good weather is to continue which is fantastic for the resumption of racing.
    Whilst racing as been suspended the weather has been so kind for the trainers if they train on grass gallops then they have had no disruption through rain, and they also have AW gallops so we all may be surprised at the quality and standard of racing on resumption on Monday, hope that i am right, fingers crossed.
    Colin.

    cleafe 28/05/20 4:07 PM Reply


  • Can`t wait to be honest, change is as good as a rest and the plethora of racing that will follow should be first class, rather than the usual “Just for the bookies!” Handicap that we are all so used to on a Monday. I know the prize money will go down, but, hopefully the quality of the horses won`t, we shall wait and see….all the best and let battle commence.

    Stewart 28/05/20 5:09 PM Reply


  • THE MEANING OF LIFE ( SORRY BETTING)

    Hi pips, long time no post. Hope everyone is fine, especially that stalwart The Hipster. My reason for posting is it would appear from reading several websites like Josh’s, the covid problem has not only given owners time to realise how fragile their subscribed content is worth but also their clientele reassessing their perceived value going forward in what is certain to be a tough time. So a quick fly through from the beginning of time.

    In living memory there’s always been mugs roaming the land in abundance that would make the old Bison herds of North America look sparse. As William Hill said “ there’s one born every minute” and he wasn’t wrong. It’s easy to say that there was a lack of knowledge and information in those days but in reality, mugs are mugs. Those punters not only couldn’t understand the difference between 6/4 and 5/2 but the wherewithal that they had no chance ever beating the books. They not only got mugged by the books but got relieved of any spare change they might have by promises of riches from sharp touts. As the Internet opened, mugs sussed out the touts but still lost their “hard earned” on a regular basis. The mugs are still here but now frequent casino’s and play poker for a quicker hit than “ and they are going down to post” The truth is that racing punters are a lot more clued up nowadays and website services have responded by offering a wealth of data, whittled down advantages, push button percentages and top class ratings. Despite all this information and countless online tuition, people are still losing and scratching their heads.

    One of the problems punters have been falling for recently is an expectation that statistics are a major influence on the outcome of a race. While statistics can be of significant worth in many walks of life, the vast variances in thousands of races can easily misconstrue the overall outlook. Time is at a premium for most who have a hobby of betting on horse races so any advice/ software can be of significant help in cutting through the dross. However, none of these are the silver bullet to rewards, especially if taking the pinpointed results without further thought. This timeout with covid has made people think twice about the content they are paying for in a way that I think will change for the better.

    Firstly let me say that I only use geegeez. It suits my situation in time consumption but at no time does it give me winners, which is important to remember. These websites are information only and Matt would be first to say they’re only statistics for you to collate and get an informed opinion. His website contributors on the other hand are quite honestly freeloaders posting ancient theory, second hand nonsense and obvious statistics that are as useful as a kick in the bollocks but it appears to go down well with the ill informed. We then have websites like Josh’s which are blog form. The reason I stopped my subscription with Josh was it was taking up too much of my time for with little gain, not the price. That’s not to say it wasn’t value, in fact I think it’s a great site for likewise people who enjoy a bit more than just a punt. Josh and others just need to understand time dosen’t stand still and what was cutting edge even a year ago can move on.

    So Chubnut, I hear you say. Lots of chat but where’s your input in the quest for winners. OK let’s mark out a plan without me giving up the holy grail that I have buried in Westminster Abbey. Firstly there is too much racing to cover all and my findings are, the longer the race the more things go out the door. I bet 5fur/ 6fur and occasionally further. Rather than dive into stats, public opinion, websites and anything else available ask yourself two questions. What is the class of the race and how will the pace of the race affect the outcome. Without knowing these parameters the statistics you are using are as good as using dice. Before adding or contemplating any statistics or info check Class. It isn’t just what the race says,some class 2 races are really class 4 and visa versa. You must ascertain not only the class of the actual race but keep a log of each runner so future races can be logged ( and they say covid tracing is hard). Class is dependent on the runners in the race, not the classification, so knowing this shows up the class of the runners. Pace, no pace, its all important. Understanding what happens inside the pace and how it affects individual horses depending on their prefered suitability is the way forward, only then can you add the statistical things like draw ( which is very overrated) No matter how good an off the pace horse is, it’s down to the pace that decides the outcome.

    As is normal for my now Pensionable age, I’m desperate for bed. Hopefully more to come but this is just to show how some things are not what they are

    chubnut 29/05/20 11:13 PM Reply


    • Hi Chubnut….You are only as old as you feel, though this is a variable!!!!!!…..how do you determine what is a quality horse if the classification is not correct?….One way of deciding, I assume, is to have a benchmark, this can be done by following races and tracking the runners for winners but the question remains what horses do you decide to track to see if the form is quality if this cannot be done via the existing classification of races?

      Do you look at the times races are run in against a benchmark median time for a particular race as the Racing Post Form Book uses or does it have to rely on race comments or both…would be interested to know how you sift through the dross to get the quality horses worth following…All the best Silver.

      silver 30/05/20 1:35 AM Reply


      • Silver,
        As I said, I have whittled my betting down to 5/6 Fur 4YO+ h’caps in order to manage the information, otherwise it just becomes a haze. The class of a race is so important as it can show you why results happen, such as a horse that is 0/10 in class 3, 0/4 in class 4 but then wins a class 3. Not all that glitters is gold. A race takes me 10 minutes to rate the class where each runner is given a rating based on a previous win at class, distance and going ( no wins = 5. win at one category =20. 2 categories 35. 4 = 50. adding all the horses numbers up and dividing by the number of runners gives you a total. class 2 = 30, 3 = 25, 4 = 20, 5 = 15, 6 = 10.
        So as an example you can have a class 3 winner (25) won by a horse where the actual rating of the race was 16. In my notes I will put won class 3 ( class 5+). For future races it shows me which races were weak or strong, clearly next time that winner enters a class 3 of better horses (eg race rating 25) you are aware of its easy class 3 win.
        This allows me 2 things. Firstly how strong a race is for its grade and also the history of the runners. From that its possible to eliminate certain runners who have no chance even though they might have won in that class. conversely a race might be so bad that its open to a horse that has never won in that grade.
        When this is put together with the expected race pace conditions ( will try to post about this at some point) you now have a solid base to work from and then start to incorporate things like draw, going, distance etc. None of which is any good to you without knowing the class and pace expectation of a race.

        michael heanue 31/05/20 7:05 PM Reply


        • Just seen the reply which is extremely comprehensive and really appreciate the time you took to share this on here…many thanks….Personally can see the logic of sticking to 5 and 6f races…..my personal preference is for the better quality of races as there is more consistency in the performances…I am a bit of a sucker for unraced 2 and 3yo races no matter what the distances as I find it a challenge to try and unravel the complexities of pedigrees and breeding as an indicator of performance, hence my preference (obsession!!) with these and particular listed and above in terms of “class”…really great information…will try and put your explanation into practice over the coming season…thanks again and all the best …Silver

          silver 31/05/20 8:02 PM Reply


    • Hi Chubnut,
      good to know that you are well, and pleased that you have made a contribution to the site again, the hip is fantastic walked 520 miles in April not bad for an old un.
      Keep posting and your tips were proving good!
      Cheers
      Colin (hipster)

      cleafe 30/05/20 8:09 AM Reply


    • HI CHUB nuts 🙂
      “Albert Einstein Quote: “If you want to know the future, look at the past.”
      You can’t get better than a “HRB” 4 year delving to help you on your way !!
      nothing is an exact science my friends .. everything is upto personal interpretation .. history is never wrong ! ( I am going to patent that by the way 🙂 ) .. we just don’t learn quick enough to make the future right !! I am still waiting for a time machine to built !! 😉 we must all start off at different angles and hope we all finish up with the same horse at the winning post .. good luck with that …lol 🙂

      lgbster 🙂

      George B 30/05/20 1:43 PM Reply


  • Morning chaps n chappettes 🙂
    only meeeeeee…………….
    nice to see that there are immediately a few qualifiers from Josh’s Newcastle sire angle , and these are the ones that have survived my adaptation on that system 🙂
    1.00 Newcastle 8 Heavenly Tale (IRE)
    1.00 Newcastle 9 Stone Mason (IRE)
    ( also on josh’s hot form race angle) (also just been gelded)
    1.35 Newcastle 6 Global Spirit
    4.30 Newcastle 11 Tomshalfbrother
    6.15 Newcastle 9 Zoran

    Good Luck …. just two more sleeps 🙂
    Back to my HRB ..laters 🙂

    George B 30/05/20 7:34 AM Reply


    • Mrs GB needs to take that HRB away from you and send you to bed with no supper 🙂

      Mark Curtis 30/05/20 10:56 AM Reply


      • not sure what i could live without for the longest ???? 🙂 🙂 🙂 .. only joking mrs gb 🙂
        Howz u mc ….. steady on the purse strings monday ..woe there hssssses !!!
        steady as she blows !! 🙂
        we survived the ordeal so far then mc ? 🙂
        gbster
        shipping/sole searcher extraordinaire !! 🙂

        George B 30/05/20 11:08 AM Reply


        • Yes, all good thanks. So we’re on… Come on GB we have money to be made but as you say tread carefully.

          Mark Curtis 30/05/20 6:52 PM Reply


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