Firstly I hope you’re well and keeping safe, which is most important.
In the next couple of days I will be emailing members and posting an update – both the current racing circumstances and an abrupt decision by PayPal to close my business account, have brought forward my plans/decisions RE your subscriptions and the short term future (next 5/6 months) of the blog more generally.
So, do keep an eye out on your inboxes, AND on this blog – I will post either tomorrow or Thursday with an important update.
In the meantime, below you can find my thoughts on the shape of Members’ Content moving forwards, once racing returns.
As always, any thoughts, ideas, opinions are always welcome.
Daily Members Posts: The Plan
Below I’ve detailed my plans for the members’ content moving forwards. Further thoughts on my approach to the week and timing of posts etc follow this.
Summary of Daily Post Structure
- Monthly Trainers
- Trainer Track Profiles
- Other Micro Angles
- Horses To Follow
Self- explanatory – but there will just be ‘tips’ – a tip is a tip and they’ll be much more focus on using my content as a starting point, as mapped out below. While I’m also busy pondering my approach to tipping (simplifying thought process/approach etc) they’ll be a much greater focus on stats and/or hot form, and not such a focus on staying handicap chases.
This section will be more prominent, given its systematic success to date – I think the strength of these ‘monthly’ / ‘times of year’ (1-3 month blocks) angles is that I refresh them regularly. As such unlike the TTP angles and those below, they are not ‘static’ for a whole season /the year and while there will be losing months/runs, with any luck come year end, they’ll have pulled in 50+ points profit BFSP. Of course, the current situation may throw a spanner in the works, as a trainer’s usual habits may go out the window this year – so that’s something to keep an eye on, and given the break.
Trainer Track Profiles (TTP)
This section will be changing slightly – I’ve concluded the current approach to the stats profiles just isn’t fit for purpose. They’ve never worked as a collection of micros (although that was never the purpose) but you can’t profit just backing them all. I don’t think they’re that useful in current form. The ‘advised strategies’ have also run their course, and while some positives, generally it’s been a struggle in the last 12+ month. They also over-complicate the offering and my time can be better spent.
I thought about ditching this section completely but I’m not sure that’s wise as yet – instead I’m working on some sort of ‘track profile’ that drills down into the winning most trainer /most profitable / biggest A|E (Actual vs Expected) – mainly with the aim of finding one or two ‘micro systems’ per track, with some other bullet points of interest – a sort of ‘fact sheet’ – but with any track on the day, it will be a ‘way in’ for trainer X and Y. I plan to post any ‘micro system qualifiers’ here, and while untested and ‘static’ for the following season, should be a decent ‘way in’ if nothing else.
Other Micro Angles
Other assorted micro angles… Trainers / Jockeys / Breeding
Those angles added from research posts, (eg Micro Monday research) through the course of a season/year – Much like the TTP angles they will be static for a time, and very much ‘ways in’ / starting points. They will be refreshed every season and kept to a manageable number. Some may prove their systematic worth.
Horses To Follow
Eye-Catchers + Hot Form
Those horses from the ‘Tracker Tuesday’ posts that caught my eye from the previous week and/or are from ‘hot form races’. Posted for their next 3 starts/stop at a winner. My hope is that these will be profitable systematically but again, another ‘way in/starting point’ but they have highlighted plenty of winners – I’ll be trying to land on a few with my Tips.
Other / Updates
A space for any updates and any information relating to the Saturday Trends – trends ‘shortlists’ and trainer pointers.
Additional Members Content
Micro Monday Post – the regular research posts looking at trainers / jockeys / breeding and other areas of interest/suggestions. Some of the qualifiers from this research will be posted in the ‘Other Micro Angles’ section above, as is the case now.
Tracker Tuesday Post – my musings on Horses to Follow from the previous week’s racing – using video and ‘hot form’ analysis, as well as other information.
Trends Thursday Post – my look ahead to the weekend’s ‘big races’, giving you plenty of time to use the stats in your own deliberations. These focus on one or two big (c2+, 14/16+ runner) handicaps but may include other races of interest. They cover my unique stats/trends pointers and the trainer records. In Saturday’s Post (posted Friday evening by 6pm latest) I will provide any relevant trends ‘shortlists’ and detail the runners from trainers who’ve won the race previously.
Big Meeting/Festival reports – trainer pointers and relevant trends races of interest for various ‘big meetings’ throughout the year. This includes the main focus on The Cheltenham Festival but also other Jumps Festivals/Meetings, as well as Flat Festivals.
Other posts – ad hoc – other racing content & videos that don’t fit into any of those categories above. I can produce ‘how I do X’ videos for every aspect above, including research etc.
- As with now I’ll endeavour to post Phase 1 of the following day’s post by 6pm. Phase 1 includes the stats / micros qualifiers and horses to follow. (sections 2 to 5)
- Phase 2 : This will include any tips from myself, found in Section 1. I will trial posting tips at a set time, for example at 9am and 10am on the day of racing.
- Monday’s posts will always follow first thing Monday morning, by 8am.
More generally I’ll be introducing some structure to my week with more ‘days off’… (certainly from Sept>)
- I’ll be taking Sunday’s off in full. (well, bar the odd big race/day, for tipping purposes) When it comes to any ‘systematic’ content as mapped out above, I’ll be pondering how that may work, including a complete blank day or paying someone to post either in the main post or the comments – esp for say the ‘monthly trainers’. I’ve some thinking to do on that. There will always be a post, that I can schedule on Saturday, to allow discussion in the comments.
- No Tip Mondays. The stats content as mapped out above will be posted by 8am but there WILL NOT be any tips/analysis – hopefully two days off from ‘tipping/study’ will have a positive impact on the rest of the week and avoid burn-out.
- Holidays – TBC but I should try and squeeze in 1 to 3 weeks over a year when I don’t have to turn my lap-top/computer on. That will involve ‘training’/paying someone to post while I’m away, to ensure continuity of the Daily Members Posts.
I need to improve the quality of the content and the profitability, especially with my tipping. The stats work will very much focus on quality over quantity I hope. Anyway, that’s where my ideas are at the moment – it isn’t dramatically different from the existing offering – however a few aspects are just not working and need revision/improvement. We are still some weeks away from UK/Irish racing returning however.
As always, any comments are welcome.
And please keep an eye out for my next update, which is rather important.