Cheltenham Festival 2020: Day 3 Review

My review of Day 3 >>>

In my review of Day 3 there are various musings, ‘horses to follow’ and ‘form follow’ stats, as well as a micro angle for Adam Wedge and various other snippets of interest (hopefully!) 




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  1. In relation to Tornado Flyer trained by Willie Mullins, I heard Ruby Walsh say that Mr Mullins not only aims horses at the upcoming Cheltenham festival but he also does so in advance for the next two after that with the younger horses. So we likely need to think about that and try to focus on Mullins horses and so not consider the value of their previous form too much. He does like to get at least 3 or 4 years of festival runs out of horses.
    I would agree re Ridersonthestorm and her potential to win something big. I have gone off Twister at the festival though.
    I think that Gordon Elliott, unlike Mullins, tends to think of the next festival only, especially with Gigginstown horses. The point that Josh made re nursing a handicap mark or knowing more about which jockey is riding what horse and why is valid. We need to watch for this once the winter season starts again and try to spot some horses he is ‘nursing’ through re their marks and ignore actual form.

    I am not a big fan of the Thursday at the festival but I did have Lisnager Oscar at 110 BFSP, so it cant be that bad.

    Stay safe, Martin.

    1. Thanks for posting, again! 🙂

      Yep, I mean my general gist has been to review Chelt with the future in mind more generally, not just next year’s Festival etc. Looking at unexposed Mullins placed horses at Festival may be an interesting exercise, and to see what they went on to do the following season/that season’s Festivals etc.

      Re trainers at Festivals- yep well said names much discussed do seem to dominate and as we discussed before some, like Twister, just run theirs plenty through the season and that may have some impact come the Festival, but given the dominance of the powerful yards, easing up and just targeting spring festivals probably isn’t a good business model! There are plenty of nice pots outside of the Festival of course and no doubt he may map something out with him in the first half of the season.

      In terms of Elliot/Giggy – in fairness Milan Native was easy to find, it’s not like he’d been tailed off etc – he had been running on merits to my eyes, just over the wrong trip/classy opponents – he was running on into the places in all his recent efforts etc – given connections/his profile, it was odd as you look back to think he was put in at 16s, which makes it worse for not latching onto him! Although was another winner for the trainer micros.

      Re Lisnagar – yep well done with him – but if I may say so, you did get ‘lucky’ with that angle – (in same way i prob did for Nicholls monthly trainer winner at 110/1, but profitable without it) you can’t just back all Festival runners that ran at Cheltenham LTO- they lost 50 odd points to BFSP in the prev 4 years, -100 to SP. Had Lisnagar not won this season they’d have lost 13 points again I think, if just backing them all, and would have been -10 down BFSP the last 6 Festivals. So it clearly relies on the odd monster falling in. A useful ‘way in’ for sure, but there isn’t a stats/results basis to justify blindly backing them all in my opinion, from what I can see. But clearly it does land on the odd biggie and I hope you enjoyed cheering him home, alas I didn’t even have £2 on!


  2. Thanks for all this good work Josh, I like the look of the Adam Wedge angle, will you keep track of these (and others)? Tips based on your unique stats when you think conditions are right should be at centre of your strategy methinks, can’t wait for it to get going again!

    1. Thanks James – i’m enjoying looking back at Cheltenham in the way I have and with any luck will help me/us have a profitable time in the months ahead -i’ve nearly completed Day 4 but will post that up Monday afternoon. I’ll pull together my Nick Mordin notes – and then after that i’ll be in pondering/strategising mode RE the future content/shape of things – but there will be a far greater Hot Form/hot race focus and stats focussed (mainly trainer)- I don’t think I plan on tipping without one of them being present as a solid foundation – the relentless focus on stats etc is something i’ve drifted away from for some reason.
      But yep, the likes of that Wedge angle and others – i’ve pondering to do on that front- but yep there will be a core of micro angle quals posted – i’ll keep the Monthly Trainer angles alive – hopefully they’re a stand alone set of micros to just follow if desired, with the rest ‘starting points’ etc.

  3. Nothing to do with Cheltenham but…. I think that when racing resumes there could be an awful lot of big fields for a while because trainers may want to get races into their horses which could make for some crazy results. Or will it just be a case of putting on extra meetings to nullify that possibility.

    1. Hi Chris,

      Yep many unknowns – it’s hard to know what trainers will carry on as normal, fitness wise – ie those who normally prep for first time out after a break/first two starts – most trainers have ability to get fit at horse fit at home etc and whether more tune them up given the circs we shall see. I’d assume so.

      And yep when you combine that with larger fields – well, could be some competitive action. In theory though should be plenty of ‘hot form’ races/results to follow in those early weeks that may help later on.

      In theory we should probably be more cautious than usual in the early weeks but should be some opportunities to exploit – a case of thinking though what they may be.
      For example, with a more compressed programme, will the owner/breeders want black type asap esp with 3 year old colts etc. Tricky.

      But we say this still not knowing what shape racing will be, whether they will focus on these regional hubs etc. They may not have the choice/option for extra meetings etc depending on what the Gov may allow them to do. So many unknowns.

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