Members Daily Post: 16/03/20 (the future)

The future… Section 2 (complete), test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1. My Tips

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Hereford

4.20 – Jury’s Out (all Hc’s) 11/8 

 

Kelso

3.10 – Island Heights (micro going) H3 I1 G3 11/4 S4

4.10 –

Pougne Bobbi (all Hc’s) H1 9/2 

Cultram Abbey (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I1 G1 4/1 S3A# S4

4.40 – Artic Mann (m dist) H3 G3 5/1 

 

Southwell

2.00 – Bassarabad (m class) 10/1 

2.30 – Chozen (m class) I3 G3 11/2 

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TTP Chase Micros 20192/20

4.10 K – Cultram Abbey H3 I1 G1 4/1 

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Please Read: All information re the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean, etc. Inc contact info, research articles ,Guest Tipster info can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

(2019: +17.56 BFSP; 2020, +67.7 SP, +151.32 BFSP; March 0/9,2p, -9) 

Jennie Candlish 

3.10 K – Brydon Boy H3 10/3  WON 7/2 

4.40 K – Golan Cloud 11/1 WON 8/1 (morning odds) > 11/2 

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Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

4.10 K – Pougne Bobbi H1 9/2 

Long Lay Off Trainers

2.00 South – Bassarabad  10/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Moving Forward

You can read the below, watch/listen to the video, or neither! 

Background….

Well firstly I don’t plan on going anywhere for now/this year. Were it not for ‘the virus’ I may have considered having a 3/6 month sabbatical and travelling around the world – that is something I want to do, as i’ve no excuse not to and have never done it, and maybe that’s something for next summer. I think i’d regret not doing that in years to come. Doing so next year, all being well, would give me some time to plan what would happen in this place, who could sit in the hot seat/how that could work. But that’s for further down the line – a 12/16 month early warning! 🙂

I won’t drone on too much about x, y and z but i’ve been going through the motions for a while for various reasons and that’s affected my enthusiasm for racing/work and vice versa. I think how i’ve set things on here has also affected me, and more on action moving forward is below. I know what I need to change ‘in life’, or what I can try, and a big part of that is moving back down south and going back to my social self. I do like people, and I don’t see enough. In the short term I’m heading down there on Tuesday for the next few weeks, and maybe longer.

There’s a debate in my head about what I may wish to do longer term but I won’t be going anywhere while I ponder such things – whether i’ve found ‘the thing’ that truly makes me happy I don’t know. I sort of think part of me is yet to move on from my student union days when I was elected President at Liverpool etc. I won’t bore you with the nature of that job, the responsibilities and daily impact/ influence you can have but in effect I went from that very high adrenaline, people, policy, impact led job, to working in a relative silo chatting about horses.  I always wanted to run my own business and I’m lucky that I found a hobby that I could do that with. But at times there has been something missing, and that’s for me to change – to find things for now outside of my blogging bubble. None of this discussion is about money – that has never been the drive and as things stand at the moment, everything is robust enough on that front. As ‘people with issues’ go, I’m near the bottom of the list and I don’t lose sight of the fact i’m in a privileged position.

Of course this is all happening in a time of great uncertainty – obviously this isn’t the place for this discussion but we’re at the start of a global health emergency, and we’re about to head into economic turmoil, which may make 2008> look rather pleasant. It does look like racing will carry on behind closed doors for as long as possible. It may be the only sporting show in town for some time, although I suspect there will come a time when racing can’t rely on ambulances/medical staff to be track side. But all we can do is carry on and see what happens.

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So, my job is to create something that both you and I enjoy and think is value.

Short Term Changes/Longer Term Impact

  • The structure of daily content will continue until the end of this Jumps season, ending Saturday 25th April.
  • From Sunday 26th April I will be taking one week off – that does go through to end of Guineas Meeting, but the jumps jocks have that week off also – I will try to get any relevant ‘festival pointers’ posted before then. I have the ability to ‘schedule’ members’ posts and will do so – as obviously the comments/interaction is a key part of what goes on here. But during that week I have no intentions of turning my computer on/doing anything on the blog. I will also endeavour to schedule in other holidays during the year, with fair warning. But my current approach isn’t sustainable – I’ve posted something up every day for 3+ years I think, bar the 3 days all year when there’s no racing around Xmas. ‘ Every day I’ve had to think about when I will post, and have had to do so – whether away in Vegas, at friends’ weddings in Ibiza, countless other trips etc – my approach to the content needs to change to some degree. My first thought since I started is ‘where will I be, do I have internet, when can i post’ – that’s my own fault and long overdue that I address that. I definitely won’t be here in a years time if I don’t.
  • As of ‘my return’ on Monday 4th May I will be taking one day off a week – that’s likely to be a Sunday or a Monday depending on the action that week, but will be flexible. But I really do need to get into the habit of having a whole 24 hours where I don’t touch the blog or think about it.

So, those changes are for my own well being really and to ensure a sustainable future.

Changes To The Content 

I short I need to take some pressure off ‘having’ to populate a daily post, certainly as is now , while also realising that aspects of the content don’t really work/are a bit redundant – and that for those who haven’t been here for a while, it can all be a bit daunting/complex.

So, as at end of the Jumps Season, 25th April,  the content shape/structure will change. I’ve some pondering on that front but…

  • Section 2 won’t exist as it is now – there will not be a TTP report as it is now and no list of daily qualifiers/ratings pointers/strategies. I’m not sure that approach is useful anymore. The Test zone angles will end as they are now also – which was always in my thinking anyway as they will need reviewing anyway.

Ideas Moving Forward

  • There will be daily posts, even if some days without anything from me on days off. Working out what to put in them is the challenging bit but I do want to be flexible, however…
  • Micro Monday, Tracker Tuesday, Trends Thursday will continue. However – Micro Monday won’t return until May 4th (bar for Monthly Trainers) – this is to allow me time for the following…
  • Trainer Track Profiles – I think i’m going to explore researching one trainer per track – with a sort of stats profile/ fact sheet /possibly a micro or two – that will hopefully provide useful research content and of course a ‘starting point’ for any day’s card – a ‘way in’ for trainer X, and that’s something I can use to pull together daily content as and when. But you’ll have access to the report to use as you please.
  • ‘Festivals’ – there’s 71 ‘Festivals’ as defined by Horse Race Base (obv the main ones but various historical 2 day meetings etc) and I want to put some more focus on those – well – ‘big meeting trainer pointers’ as i’ve done before, but while always pondering quality over quantity – and of course ‘big race trends’ (covered in Trends Thursday – again less is more, mainly big handicaps-  but trainer race pointers etc) I prefer the idea of focus on 2/3 days on said meetings, then giving myself a couple of quiet days etc, esp when mid week!
  • Through The Card – I do like doing these and I need to ponder whether to do one a week, or try to, minimum – esp for ITV races say – this isn’t about a list of horses as such, although i’d flag what looks interesting to me – but some stats pointers/pace/trainer form per race maybe – that you can use in good time to ponder, and I can.
  • Daily Content
    • The point of the above is to give me some flexibility in terms of daily content, and to give me flexibility to sometimes say – ‘nothing tomorrow’ BUT…
    • Monthly Trainers – I do like this idea and will keep at it, posting 6 days a week – and maybe some kind soul will post in the comments on my day off.
    • Eye-Catchers/Hot Form – these stem from the ‘Tracker Tuesday’ posts and enjoy that approach – things to improve on no doubt but they have highlighted winners on subsequent runs. It also gets me into the habit of reviewing races etc and I do need to immerse more and see that as a key part of my ‘job’. That enthusiasm to do so stems from everything touched on above.
  • Videos/How To etc – I will get into more ‘educational’ content at some point maybe, although given my current form etc I can’t really position myself as an expert as such! There is a ‘gap in the market’ for this sort of stuff, esp at the basic/recreational end. The greatest thrill in this game is landing on your own winner (well bar owning a share in a winner!) and I could do more to help with that.

 

TIPPING!

Ah, the big one… now, the reality is that if my good members’ just judged on my tipping, this blog may have shut down a few months back – and maybe said performance ongoing may precipitate a decline from those who do just want tips, and don’t care for any of the above. (plenty have just judged on the tipping, which is fair enough) My main drive for ‘tipping’ is a personal one – I get a thrill from solving the puzzle and get very frustrated when I don’t. I need to do some work on pondering the ‘tipping’ element moving forward but I will get it right again. Part of it is my head not being in the right place maybe, and mentally drained. Part of it is that I just haven’t been very good  – and that while my knowledge is more than good enough, as are the tools at my disposal – my application as been lacking. I could be over complicating things. But I’m not doing something right. It could be that it transpires i’m just not very good at tipping, but I’m not at that stage of defeat just yet. But I need to put myself under less pressure and to ‘get back to basics’.

Given the thoughts on the content above there is room in my ‘Best of The Blog’ idea – and I can’t leave the chases alone, but some pondering to do there.

One of you, Chris, did share some data on my tipping – not fully complete as such but I do appear to have a sweet spot…

Handicap/Novice hncp chases/ 22.5-26f / C4+ / Age 6-10 / BFSP 10.00< 

Since Dec 18 my tips in those conditions…

88 bets / 23 wins / 40 p (inc wins) +61 BFSP / +79 Advised / +48 SP / AE 1.63

So, there’s some pondering there on the daily tipping but I will go easier on that front while I ponder what I need to change – but maybe my initial focus should be on everything else detailed above/best of blog first and foremost.

There’s plenty for me to ponder above, and to work in a way that doesn’t burn me out, and where producing quality information/research is manageable.

I don’t think there’s much more to say for now – I’m always happy to listen to ideas on content etc so do fire away if you have any.

I’m conscious of organising a social gathering of the RTP masses, but external events may curtail any such plans in the short term – but adding some sort of social aspect may be a valued addition.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. I did say that form time to time I would flag up some eye catchers to follow for the rest of the season. here are the first two. I will flag up here when they are running.

    Ask A Honey Bee – a six year old briar gelding trainer by Fergal O’Brien.

    Ran 4 times in point to point, winning once and placing twice. Was then bought to race in Britain. Won his first three bumpers at various tracks and then took his chance at the festival. He initially opened up at 33/1 and was backed in to 25/1. The horse ran on late to claim a very creditable sixth and will be competitive when running next. His trainer thinks that he is still maturing and open to significant improvement.

    Here Comes McCoy – a five year old briar gelding trained bu Olly Murphy.

    The horse does not appear to have run in point to points. This may be explained by his sire being Dylan Thomas and the original course of action being a flat campaign. He has had only one run to date, winning a bumper on January 11th easily. He appears to be waiting for better ground before running again. Another horse open to considerable improvement.

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  3. A bit of interest on a quiet day.

    Allthatlistens 2.10K
    Simba Hills & Uncle O 4.00 K
    Pleney 4.30 S

    Mike

  4. Josh

    I’ve always been happy enough with the Qualifiers TTP against Stat packs, with the G, H and I ratings, anything else is always a bonus. I think that would be very unpopular if this is to disappear from here.

    1. Hi Geoff – well there’s no plans to before end of April for the jumps and end of season seems a good place to stop those – while i’ll try something different over the summer- the reality is that in both Flat and Jumps, in last year+ it’s been harder to find a systematic way to use them, despite my best efforts (and the % when I last surveyed that did use for that purpose was low) – if then, they are very much just ‘starting points’ say/ways in, there may be better alternatives, some of which sketched out above, esp for the flat season/summer jumps. Any ‘micro system’ to follow systematically may well rest around the monthly trainers, and then from there I can do some quality content a few days a week – some days more intense than others depending on the Festival/day etc – I don’t plan on ditching the use of ratings pointers as info to help in picking etc – but I think the summer may give an opportunity to try some other stuff.
      That TTP idea – but just with one trainer profile per track may or may not work, we shall see. But I’m happy to absorb all ideas and ponder.
      Josh

  5. Monthly Trainers strikes again! Too much doom and gloom around, we should feel good about our sport, Josh’s monthly trainers is just superb!

    1. A nice double in fact – that’s handy!!
      Cheers Josh – glad you are not going anywhere – top site this!!
      Harry

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