Members Daily Post: 14/03/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1. My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1. My Tips

3.35 Uttoxeter

Captain Drake – 1 point EW  & 1 point win – 11/1 (Skyb/WH/Uni/Betf – 1/5, 4 places – 5 with SB) (well 11s seems to have gone, 9s gen)

That’s all for today, write up at bottom…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.15 – Duhallow Gesture (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 4/1 S3A#

2.50 – Sky Full Of Stars (m’s dist and runs) ES+ G1 15/2 S3A (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Kempton

2.40 – Our Power (m TJC) G1 11/1 S1

3.15 – Topofthecotswolds (m TJC) 33/1 

 

Uttoxeter

1.50 –

Mr Caffrey (HcH) ES+ H3 G3 9/2 S3A# 

Tambura (HcH) w1 ES+ H1 I1 G1 4/1 S3A# S4

3.00 – Caswell Bay (m runs) w1  8/1 

3.35 –

Prime Venture (m runs) 9/1 

Just Your Type (m runs) 20/1 

 

Newcastle………None

*

 

TTP Chase Micros 2019/20

2.35 Newc – Just Geordie (7/1<)  10/1

2.25 Uttox – Over To Sam 14/1

3.35 Uttox – Captain Drake 11/1

 

*

Please Read: All information re the members club and how to engage in the content, what all the red symbols mean, etc. Inc contact info, research articles ,Guest Tipster info can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Monthly Trainers

Ian Williams

3.15 K – King of Realms 20/1

Jennie Candlish 

3.10 N – Oscars Leader H1 G3 2/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

2.25 Uttox – Musical Slave H3 13/2 

2.35 Newc – Definite Wisdom H1 5/2 

3.15 Kemp – Pistol Whipped G3 13/2 

3.15 Kemp – Whatswrongwithyou 25/1

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.35 Uttox – Potters Legend 20/1

 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

Cheltenham/Moving Forwards

I’ll post up a message in tomorrow’s post about the future more generally, or maybe Monday, but that torrid week has helped crystallise a few things that have been rattling around my head for far too long. There’s going to be some changes moving forwards, but i’ll discuss all that tomorrow/Monday after i’ve done some more thinking, as I try and formulate the right words/plan etc.

The Festival was obviously awful, which in isolation is fine. They happen. I was hoping the unique nature of the week and my approach may snap me into life, but it didn’t, and i’m sorry about that. The sad reality is that it’s the end point of a turgid period that’s gone on long enough, and thus action is now required. I dislike those who look for excuses etc – there are none, I simply wasn’t good enough, and haven’t been on the tipping front for a long long time. Too long.

But that discussion is for another day.

 

To Uttoxeter…

With those happy words… onto what has been one of my favourite staying chases in recent years and while my confidence/enthusiasm has nearly all but evaporated for now, I could do with landing on our 4th winner in the last 6 renewals…

 

Captain Drake –

This is likely to be my last tip for a while so I thought i’d best take on the top of the market – i’ve been unsuccessfully doing that all week in handicaps and it would be easy to reach for that price comfort blanket, but i’ll stick to my guns…

This unexposed stayer won well at Exeter two starts back and in a way which to me suggested he could have a muddy marathon in him one day. He’s won at the track over hurdles in heavy and won a Towcester bumper in heavy – some indication I suppose that he was always going to be a slogger. He does have a couple of unseats next to his name but both have been unlucky, and not really down to bad errors. 3 starts back he just sprawled on landing, and LTO again he was awkward on the landing side having jumped ok, and Sean couldn’t stay on. It was interesting they pitched him into that Ascot race and they didn’t hang around there, but to my eyes he was travelling just fine up until the UR, over a trip/pace that may have been a stride too quick for him.

There’s plenty more to come from him over fences I think and Bryan Carver (who’s very good for his claim) takes off a handy 5lb. Having 10-2 on his back in these conditions can only be a positive. He’s a big unit of a horse and if he completes, I’ll be disappointed if i’m not excited at some point. Of course he does have to prove he stays but the trip is one of the reasons for possible improvement and if he was proven over a marathon trip he wouldn’t be this price. The yard are in fine form and they do well here, so fingers crossed for a big run.

He should also track the pace hopefully and be in a no excuses position.

Of the rest…

Well the top of the market is just obvious I suppose. As has often been the case , too obvious for my faltering eyes – but I can’t wade into the 5s/6s shots in this as they look about right.

Maybe it’s all about the Welsh National form and it will be a fight between Truckers Lodge and Prime Venture – the latter gets 1st blinkers which seemingly need to work – he didn’t get home in this last year to my eyes, when we were on I think, having travelled into it well – so he does have that to prove. But I can see some appeal at 9s.

I didn’t like any of the others at bigger prices, in these conditions. Potters Legend may run into a place but i’m not convinced he wants it this testing. He has turned into a slow old boat and I think he could have something like this in him – maybe the National that’s run at Lingfield would be more ideal, if soft or better.

Enjoy your day,

Josh

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Hi all, hope we had a good Cheltenham?
    It sucks you in, spins you round and spits you out at the end hopefully in one piece…I do hope Josh is ok?
    You can have Cheltenham`s like that, think I had one a couple of years ago, before I joined this wonderful band of brothers.
    I kept picking out my obligatory 3/4 horses a race to narrow it down to 2, to only see one of the other 2 go in. This picking winners thing is what gets us up in the morning though and half of it is your own mentality.
    I suppose we must keep banging on about profit, but, if all you are after is winners, then this may not be the place for you, yes we get our collective, such and such has had a winner and such and such got close, but, overall from what i could see, we were all hit and miss over the week, what you have to do is look at those that can get the profit…Lisnagar Oscar and Indefatagable will have pulled most of us out of the mire if picking them along with our own selections, unfortunately I didn`t. Does that make me a donkey, or a fool for not doing so, maybe, but, i have my own principles and ways that I look at a race. I am grateful to all on here for their input and challenging discussions we have on here, but, as everyone has said time and again, these are only “ways in”, not, the elusive city of gold in selecting winners.
    I can`t remember which race it was this week, but, think we all had a spread of 20 selections out of the 24 runners, granted I think the winner was 20/1, so, back them all and you draw level, the one/ two person/people who has actually picked the winner gets the plaudits and we move on? (If you were using that scale all the time you would effectively be backing an evens shot in a 24 runner race, would you do that? I know I wouldn`t..)
    There are loads of stats etc on here, half of them are hieroglyphics to me, but, I know Josh puts a lot of effort into doing all that and again I`m grateful for him doing that, the trainer angles are always worth looking into, like I have said before they are creatures of habit and if nothing else I say sticks, if starting out you should follow one of them, doesn`t matter who, but, follow them like you would follow a football team, get to learn why they don`t like playing away at Cheltenham, or their liking for a small novice hurdle in November at Carlisle…you get my point.
    Anyways onto today.
    15:35 Uttoxeter
    CHRISTMAS IN APRIL 1pt win 6/1 gen
    Now, the further this one goes the better he seems to get, don`t believe he has speed, but, his cruising speed is so high, he gently coasts into a race and arrives without you even knowing he is there. He doesn`t have many miles on the clock and I think this may have been his target for some while now.(Tizzard is my “football team”). Dickie is on board and I think he will appreciate the restraining hands that Dickie can give a horse, just keep him out of trouble, coast round and finish with a little left in the tank. Nick Mordin always used to say if you win by 2 lengths comfortably after a slog in the mud then you must be some horse, think there is more to come from him.
    PETITE POWER 1pt win 13/2 gen
    Unfortunately the 13/2 has now gone, 11/2 generally, sorry, but, woldn`t put you off backing him still, will relish conditions, has his usual jockey up and is down in class after running in the big chase at Warwick where the form of that race is working out well. He stayed on really well in that and I do believe off a feather weight here he will run a big race.
    the other two I picked where DE RASHER COUNTER, whom I felt with top weight was no Bonanza Boy (the last horse to lug top weight and win round here), and SE MO LAOCH, who really loves a sloppy track and with a feather weight also, may be a surprise package form the emerald isle…just thought it had a hard race LTO and that was only 27 days ago.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    1. thanks for your concern Stewart.
      Bad Festivals do happen by my form has an uncomfortable trend all of it’s own. I’ve been shite for ages, and there’s various things underpinning that.
      I’m generally not ok, that’s the truth. I’m unhappy and i’ve some big decisions to make in the coming days, life changing ones, as i’ve been stuck in a going nowhere rut for too long. I need to re-balance the approach on here, and with life, and I need to snap into some other life direction also. I haven’t found the thing that makes me happy yet – it certainly isn’t having my daily routine dictated by doing a daily blog post 362 days a year, nor my mood dictated by my latest losing run, or missed winner. That’s no way to live or contribute to this world really. The hobby tuned business used to be fun, it isn’t at the moment, and I need to address it. In a way this Festival is a relief, as those thoughts above have maybe been in my head for too long. And i need to move back down south closer to my family and closest friendship group – my time up north is coming to and end I think. In the grand scheme of challenges in life that everyone fancies, this is pretty near the bottom, but I still need to take some action.
      Anyway, back to my pondering. This isn’t a reaction to last week, those thoughts have been in my head for a while now.
      GL today, as always.

      1. We’re all here for you Josh and I for one would be saddened to hear of this blog/ site going under. I know what it’s like though, I had about 6 -10 years out of the game after all the race fixing and doping etc came to light. I know it was a selected few, but, left my head In a bad place and felt I just needed a few months off, that turned into years. Did me the world of good though and I have come back invigorated and refreshed, still scratching my head at the “puzzle” though, you need something to get you out of bed in a morning and if it’s not doing that then change is as good as a rest!

        1. Bang on Stewart , I’ve long since held the view that Josh (and others) put too much pressure upon themselves, being more into horse racing than a lot of my friends I often get asked for tips, particularly in the big weeks so, I know how when they don’t come in you can feel guilty or even in my case occasionally embarrassed lol, but I don’t think that the majority of people on here expect to get winner after winner and it is purely at their own discretion whether they choose to back them or not. Josh offers a service and to my mind it’s a bloody good one.

  2. THE CHELTENHAM RECOVERY RESATAURANT
    *************************************************
    TASTY TRACKER BREAKFAST MENU
    *******************************************************************************
    1.30 Kempton 4 Return Ticket (IRE) = like the jockey booking/track
    3.10 Newcastle 2 Thor De Cerisy (FR) = the stables “hot pot”
    3.15 Kempton 7 Legal Eyes (IRE) = yet to show it’s full potential ..today?
    3.15 Kempton 5 King Of Realms (IRE) = and may well gambled today ?
    4.20 Newcastle 3 Ard Chros (IRE) = geting back to a winnable mark !
    5.10 Fontwell 2 Man Of Plenty = a little bit short for me … but e/w !
    ********************************************************************************
    I only put small stakes on my tracker horses ….. because i am not the greatest race reader in the world ………… unlike most on here 🙂

    Have fun out there today ……….it’s another day of fun !

    1. Yes, it paid big on BFSP. A greta effort carrying all that weight.

      You do get big value at Cheltenham if only you can find the winner.

        1. I see that Derby are dodging a bullet today and not visiting The Den for a beating on our play off push. We were looking forward to a visit from Mr Rooney and were keen to give him a greeting!!!!

          1. Martin we will collect our 3 points when the game is rearranged!!!
            Our future looks bright through the acadmy players coming through we had 6 players on the pitch in one game 4 starting and 2 coming on as subs.
            Watch out for Sibley 18 year old debut against Man Utd and was the man(boy) of the match, next game against Blackburn scored 25 yard rocket
            Bird and Knight established now in the first team playing alongside Rooney, and he said about Bird that he reminds him of when he was that age, both players 18/19.
            Rooney is outstanding working on the pitch and also behind the scenes.
            Your loan player Bennet Hic is he injured always is, he came through the acadmy but div 1 or div 2 is his level, doubt if you will keep him.
            Watch our young lads and enjoy for they are inproving every game.
            Always a Ram
            Colin

  3. Cheltenham micros/trends etc that went well from my view in 2020.

    These are a mix from various sources including here.

    Oppose – in handicap chases those trained by Henderson, Nicholls, Twister, Hobbs and Longsdon.

    Oppose – Venetia Williams and Tom Scu over hurdles.

    JP owned – in standard handicaps at less than 15/2 and also those ridden by Barry Geraghty over hurdles.

    Mullins – non handicap hurdle – 123 LTO and won 1 of last 3.

    Oppose – horse aged 11+.

    Ran at Cheltenham – at the last meeting or as its last run (paid +107.5 BFSP thanks to Lisnager Oscar in the main).

    So now you have the key to Cheltenham 2021!

    1. Good to see you back on here again Nick, miss your musings etc. Don`t think you had a bad Cheltenham?

  4. COLINS BETS
    3.15 Kempton Drumconnor Lad
    3.45 Newcastle Ladronne
    6.00 Wolverhampton Janus

    VICTORY
    3.15 Kempton Drumconnor Lad
    3.45 Newcastle Ladronne

    ON THE BRIDLE
    1.50 Uttoxeter Tambura
    2.40 Kempton Downtown Getaway
    2.35 Newcastle Definite Wisdom
    4.55 Newcastle Federici
    7.00 Wolverhampton Furzig
    Colin

  5. Monthly Guest Tipster (results update to follow)

    Morning Update
    Just one from last night. It’s shortened a bit but is still acceptable and nothing else to add this morning.

    6.30 Wolverhampton. Deputise. Win. was 7.5 Betfair Sportsbook/BetVictor/PaddyPower, 7 various. Now 6.5 Coral/Sportingbet/Bwin, 6 various

    Here’s last night’s post.

    An early bet
    6.30 Wolverhampton. Deputise. Win. 7.5 Betfair Sportsbook/BetVictor/PaddyPower, 7 various

    The 6.30 tomorrow is full of prominent and front runners who could all hinder each others chances. If this is run at a fast early pace then that could set it up for a finisher and Deputise could be the beneficiary.

    He’s been on and off the track in the last year but showed he’s in decent shape on his return at Lingfield last month. With a small field leading to a slow pace, the race wasn’t run to suit and he lost momentum when having to be switched just after turning for home, but still made up some if not enough ground near the finish.

    He’s a previous course and distance winner in a not dissimilar race and if he gets a clear run then should be a big contender tomorrow. Because of his hold-up style there is the possibility of traffic problems so the value is more in the win than place side of any bet and I’d rather back win only rather than each-way.

  6. Josh would not beat yourself up to much on the tipping front granted season not gone well but as I also use two other well known tipping sites they have both had a poor jumps season hopefully they will turn the corner shortly or my betting bank could be wiped out.Sometimes I think to myself that you do try to do too much as there seems too be a lot more on the site then when I joined I say that as a long term member keep your chin up Josh as I know this is the best racing site I have found thanks for all your hard work and effort. S P williams

  7. Afew i’m having a go at today all 1/2pt ew
    Kempton.
    2-05 Severano
    2-40. Cervaro Mix
    3-15. Sensulano
    4-25. Ultimatum Du Roy
    Uttoxeter.
    2-25. Looks Like Murt
    3-35. Captain Drake
    and a couple of sillies
    Navan 2-20. Shumaker 20-1
    Kempton 2-40. Shantou Village 66-1

  8. Hi Josh
    Guess you are doing too much and i do not know how many hours you are putting into RTP but it needs to be reduced, so my brutal but honest plan would be
    Stop spending so much time trying to find bets to tip on RTP, for it as not been going well for 2 years and you cannot keep harping on about your profit of 3 years ago you are only as good as your next tip that includes myself.
    Your time would be far better served with Mico’s such as monthly trainers etc.
    Your section number 2 is this taking up time and how successful is it,for i spent about 18 months recording them and in the end have stopped looking at them.
    So have a stats based RTP and ensure that it cuts your hours down, get the feeling most on RTP enjoy the stats part and once again going back to my old methods my mojo is back for they are winning.
    Take Sunday, Monday,Tuesday off completly go and get pissed enjoy yourself and only put the blog up for anyone to put their bets up, so no stats or anything go and enjoy yourself!!! and come back refreshed, with hopefully new ideas for a revamped RTP.
    Take Care
    Colin.

    1. Totally agree with Colin,i much prefer the stats etc you provide(Actually did quite well at Chelt)
      Got a bit pissed off with everyones opinions on corona viras and what is going to happen etc.It is a betting site,the information you put on is excellent as far as i am concerned.
      Stephen.E

    2. Lots of common sense there Colin and find myself agreeing with large parts of it.
      The Monday/Monthly micro’s are generally going well and can produce an easily managed portfolio for the less adventurous.
      ps,
      cheers for yesterday, I had the winner in the first and then nowt til I did your’s in the last.

  9. Hi Josh
    My advice ( for what it’s worth ) is don’t do anything too drastic.
    Everyone goes through bad patches and you have to keep in mind what has gotten you to this position in the first place . Your results over the past few years have been phenomenal at times , and generally excellent. You may need to tweak your criteria for selections but I suspect you won’t have to alter things too much to get back on track . Everything changes over time. You also have to bear in mind that there have been plenty of winners within the qualifiers which have certainly kept me going ( and several others I suspect ).
    Don’t beat yourself up. You’ll be back on top form soon, and that’s a bet !

  10. Hi Josh,

    There is little point in saying what a great guy you are and what a good site it is etc. All of that is clear to see, has been written about plenty and isn’t what you are looking for. The fact that there has not been one dissenting voice on this site at any time proves that everyone believes in what you are trying to achieve and are generally doing very successfully.

    However, if you are personally not enjoying it and finding it hard then clearly something needs to change. For what it’s worth I think you have have highlighted the most relevant reason in your own post. Working 362 days of the year doesn’t do anybody any good, so the first thing I would suggest is that you take some time off (as it happens real-life events may well force your hand anyway), have every Sunday off, take some holidays here and there. I don’t think anyone on here would begrudge you doing that. The results in general last week were never going to play into your favour so you shouldn’t beat yourself too much up about last week and Colin is absolutely right you should have a couple of days to go and get pissed and enjoy yourself.

    Clearly no-one on here wants this site to end but at the end of the day it’s your baby and your life and you have to do what’s best for you but I do think that reviewing the way the site takes up your time might well be a starting point for getting your enjoyment back again.

    Cheers

    Ben

    1. The issue for Josh is that he needs to make a living. he is trying to do that doing something that he enjoys. All of us who tip/post with subscribers paying is that we have to be successful to keep people paying. You do enjoy doing it but you obviously enjoy it more when you are winning and making money. And when your tipping is not making others money then you do lose subscribers.
      Josh is a young man and needs the money to live and build a living going forward. I have children of the same age as him and know that they have to work hard and be flexible to get on. I am now retired from a corporate life and can live without making money from sports betting but can appreciate Josh’s issues.
      Fortunately such activities can be undertaken from any location and so his return to Suffolk is not an issue but as he said would be of benefit to him.

      Good luck to all.

  11. THE ALL WEATHER TAPAS LONG (very) MENU :
    **************************************************
    5.25 W ALLUX BOY (BREEDING)
    5.25 W KLIPPERTY KLOPP (JOCKEY)
    5.25 W LADY CARDUROS (JOCKEY)
    5.25 W PERFECT SOLDIER
    *******************************************
    6.00 W SUNSHINEANDBUBBLES (JOCKEY)
    6.00 W THAWRY (BREEDING) (JOCKEY)
    *******************************************
    6.30 W ALSVINDER (JOCKEY)
    6.30 W TATHMEEN (JOCKEY)
    6.30 W WILD ERIC (BREEDING)
    *******************************************
    7.00 W KODIAC HARBOUR (JOCKEY)
    7.00 W RANGALI ISLAND (JOCKEY)
    *******************************************
    7.30 W ADELANTE (JOCKEY)
    *******************************************
    8.00 W PUDS (JOCKEY)
    8.00 W MOSS GILL (JOCKEY)
    *******************************************
    8.30 W EYE SMILING (JOCKEY) (RACE TYPE MONTH)
    8.30 W KARIBANA (JOCKEY) (RACE TYPE MONTH)
    8.30 W MERAAS (JOCKEY) (RACE TYPE MONTH)
    8.30 W ROSINA ROSE (JOCKEY) (RACE TYPE MONTH)
    8.30 W SHECANDOO ( BREEDING)
    ********************************************
    MC …………. as you can see my ovens have produce to many winning fancies for tonight. I shall be just doing my usual fun dutching and the odd f/c just for fun !!
    Can you vouch for any of these from your end ?? ………. ooo errr missus !! 😉
    have fun laterz matey 😉

    1. Hi GBster, sadly we only match on Rangali Island 🙁 One you might want to tbp on is Three Saints Bay in the 6.30. Not inspired much tonight, think it’s post Cheltenham fatigue.

      Have fun anyhoo, you can get a free timeform racecard for Southwell on Monday?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.