Festival 2020: Day 4 (Complete/11 tips)

write ups – Tipsx11, Stats/trends/trainers

1.Main Tips (summary)

2.’Through The Card’

3.Stats Pack Trainer/Micro Quals

4.Stats Pack Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

5. Tips – Write Ups/Notes

*

1.Main Tips (summary) (ALL TIPS x 11 – please read carefully, esp points)  

(1/20, 5p, -8.1) 

2.10 

(as of 21.22) (added Ciel as of 08.36) 

#1 – Adjali – 1.5 point win – 12/1 (gen)

#2 – Stolen Silver – 1.5 point win – 14/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen)

#10 – Ciel De Niege – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)

 

2.50 

(as of 22.23)

#3 – Cobblers Way – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 17.00 (betfX)

#4 – Redford Road – 1 point win – (I suggest 1/2 point taking a price 28s 33s, and 1/2 BFSP)

#5 – House Island – 1 point win – ( as above, 1/2 point 170s or so on BetfX, and 1/2 BFSP)

 

4.50 

(as of 07.25)

#6 – Paloma Blue – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/WH/Coral)

#7 – US and Them – 1.5 points win –  20/1 (lad/coral/Betf) 18/1 (others)

 

5.30 

(as of 08.10)

#8 – The Bosses Oscar – 1.5 point win – 14/1 (bet365/Lad/BV/Coral) 17.00 BetfX

#9 – Escaria Ten – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen) 18.00 BetfX

 

The Gold Cup: 3.30 

#11 – Clans Des Obeaux – 2 point win – 15/2

 

That’s it for today, 11 tips, 14 points outlay, write ups /thoughts /explanations on their way…

 

2.’Through The Card’

(1/9, 5p = -7)

None today… I don’t really have any thoughts on The Triumph or the Foxhunters. 

 

3.Stats Pack Trainer/Micro Quals

Trainers

G Elliot (any odds)

2.10 – Lethal Steps

4.50 – Chosen Mate

5.30 – Column Of Fire / Escaria Ten / The Bosses Oscar

Paul Nicholls 

2.10 – Scaramanga

Dan Skelton 

2.10 – Mohaayed

Willie Mullins

2.10 – Aramon/ Buildmeupbuttercup / Ciel De Neige / Saint Roi / Tiger Tap Tap

5.30 – Five O Clock / Great White Shark / My Sister Sarah

Micros

M1 

2.10 – Aramon

4.50 – Us And Them

5.30 – Assemble / Column of Fire / Five O Clock / Front View / Great White Shark / My Sister Sarah

M2

2.10 – Buildmeupbuttercup / Moon Over Germany

4.50  – Eclair De Beaufeu / Paloma Blue

5.30 – My Sister Sarah

M3 (16/1<)

4.50 – Ballywood / Mcgroaty / Theinval

M5 (16/1<)

2.10  – Embittered

4.50 – Eclair De Beaufeu / Jan Maat

5.30 – Assemble  / Column Of Fire

M6 (15/2<)

2.10 – Ciel De Neige

4.50- Great Field / Winter Escape

 

4.Stats Pack Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

2.10 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • All of Mullins x5
  • Mohaayed
  • All of Henderson’s x3
  • Christopher Wood/ Scaramanga
  • All of Hobbs x3

Trends

These are not overly helpful… well the 15/15, 14/15 (exc the weights stat for now) and looking at 5/6 year old… leaves 10/15 winners (10/99, 20p)…

Ciel De Neige/ Adjali/ Buildmeupbuttercup/ Thatsy/Christopher Wood/ Stolen Silver / Embittered / Eldorado Allen / Elusive Belle/ Scaramanga/ Tiger Tap Tap/ Beat The Judge / Tiger Voice / Lethal Steps 

From those stats those that were Top 3 LTO are 6/42, 9p…

Ciel De Neige/ Christopher Wood/ Elusive Belle/ Eldorado Allen/ Lethal Steps 

 

2.50 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Monkfish / Janidil / Aione
  • Harry Senior/ Lieutenant Rocco
  • Cobblers Way
  • The Cashel Man

Trends

Profile: Running at G3+ in career, and running at C1 or 2 LTO leaves 15/15 (15/154, 36p) … removes 10, leaving…

Thyme Hill/ Latest Exhibition/ Harry Senior / Ramses De Teillee/ Fury Road/ Cobblers Way / Janidil/ Redford Road/ House Island 

Running over 2m4-3m LTO is a key pointer as is running 26+ days ago… only removes 2 from that list leaving 7 to work with…

Thyme Hill/ Latest Exhibition/ Harry Senior /  Fury Road/ Cobblers Way / Janidil/ Redford Road/ House Island 

*

4.50 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Greaneteen / Capeland
  • Lisp / Ballywood
  • Theinval
  • Croco Bay

Trends

The 15/15 through to 13/15 stats (inc 7< career wins) leaves 13/15 winners, 13/94 runners, 30 places…

Lisp / Eclair De Beaufeu / Paloma Blue / Jan Maat / Us And Them

5.30 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • All of Elliots X5
  • All of Joseph OBs x3
  • All of Mullins x 3
  • Paul Nicholls x2
  • Mill Green

Trends 

The 11/11 and 10/11 stats (exc odds) leave… 10/11 winners, 10/53 runners, 21p…

Front View / Column Of Fire/ Pileon / The Bosses Oscar / Five O Clock/ Assemble/ Espoir De Romay / Escaria Ten/ Happygolucky 

 

5. Tips – Write Ups/Notes

 

Write Ups 

Well, it hasn’t been a great week so far and when your stats starting points have been firing out winners, and when you get to this stage in the week having not backed a Henderson / Elliot / Mullins/ HDB / Nicholls / JP / Giggy winner you know you’ve had a shocker, so far. 

It’s shit or bust today. I could have been timid, tried to limit the damage, claw us back to 0 or something, but what’s the point. I’d rather lose what will be 22 points trying to clamber into profit than do that. 

Meanwhile outside of our racing bubble it’s all getting rather serious in the real world. The next few months are going to be very unpleasant and from a sporting sense (immaterial obviously in the wider scheme of things) this could be the last Festival for a while. Maybe they will do plenty behind closed doors but even a skeleton Aintree may have too many people there etc – that has to be in trouble, Punchestown, Galway, probably stretching to Royal Ascot… Glastonbury etc. 

So, let’s have one last hurrah. And if it’s not to be, its not to be but the worst case is hopefully losing an amount you were ‘happy’ to – while rightfully being unimpressed with my efforts this week. A pub, and few pints of Guinness away me, but before I go…

I should add… I’ve stuck like glue to my stats content above as a ‘way in’ with ‘the usual suspects’ at the top of my thinking. If they bomb out today, which would be typical, I suspect i’ll be moving onto something stronger than the black stuff…  (there’s always the Midlands National tomorrow…) 

2.10 

#1 – Adjali – 1.5 point win – 12/1 (gen)

#2 – Stolen Silver – 1.5 point win – 14/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen)

#10 – Ciel De Niege – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)

Adjali – of great interest here… highly tried as a juvenile in G1s suggesting the team thought/think he’s good. He’s got course/Festival form and is thoroughly unexposed, yet with enough experience. He has to be better than a 140 horse at some point. He ran ok to a point at Ascot but didn’t do much late on, and he’s had a wind op since. Nicky is the best in the business so far with horses running after a 1st wind op (you can back them blind) and he did it with William Henry here last year. Obviously he’s been in great form this week and plenty of recent winners of this have been running of a lengthy enough break- which is a theme of the week to some degree – kept fresh off horrid winter ground and prepped for the day. Those names mentioned above in the intro are the best in the Festival business at that. Of some further interest – these connections… owner / trainer/ retained jockey have had 2 runners in this race, both have gone very close in 2nd, in the last couple of years, both carrying welter burdens. This has to have been the plan and Jacob should be confident after his win in the Mares Novice.

Stolen Silver – Twister has had such a good season so far it would be good for the team to have a Festival winner… and this lad could provide it. Unexposed and he stays well. He has experience of this hill. LTO didn’t go to plan at all – that standing start buggered him up in the Betfair, he took a while to get going and was seemingly always on the back foot- Sam couldn’t decided whether to give up or keep going up the straight to my eyes, as he had plenty of horse under him but couldn’t get a clear run when it mattered. He ran on into 6th like a horse with a bit up his sleeve still. I think this track/pace/hill will suit him much better and Sam will desperately want a winner. This is a nice horse, and he looked overpriced.

Ciel De Neige – well the JP money looks to be coming and I decided I should have a Mullins horse onside in this – and of course this one was 2nd in the Betfair above – he may have hit the front too soon there and may well benefit from a more patient ride – again he ran like a stayer and may prefer this track. It would be annoying to see him win, and Stolen Silver chasing, confirming that form, to have nothing on at what was 7s, now 11/2 (which i’ll have to declare at if he wins/SP isn’t bigger, as that price didn’t last long) I much preferred him to Saint Roi given the level of form achieved so far and he was too short for one with so little experience imo. But he’s thoroughly unexposed. Hopefully he was put in so that JP could load up on his other one 🙂 Never has he targeted handicap hurdles here to such great effect. And they have been ‘obvious’ , too obvious for me obviously, up until now 🙂

 

2.50 

(as of 22.23)

#3 – Cobblers Way – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 17.00 (betfX)

#4 – Redford Road – 1 point win – (I suggest 1/2 point taking a price 28s 33s, and 1/2 BFSP)

#5 – House Island – 1 point win – ( as above, 1/2 point 170s or so on BetfX, and 1/2 BFSP)

 

Don’t worry I haven’t completely lost the plot- this isn’t a case of me throwing mud in the hope of netting a big one – my stats/trends profile for this race have always done very well… my first Festival when the blog started,in 2014 – when nobody was really reading the blog – and that may well be the case come 5.40! – they helped me land on Very Wood at 50s. The next year on the 14/1 winner. Two years ago they fired out just 2 qualifiers, both 50/1. Another winner. As such and forever more, I will always follow them closely when any monsters are fired out… I have obviously looked at the horses also…

Cobblers Way – a relative ‘shortie’ but in my ‘other’ bullet points in the guide you’ll see the record of the Dam Sire Supreme Leader… 4/18,7p, +165, including 3 of the last 6 winners… guess what, this one ‘qualifies’ (as does Latest Exhibition) – I think that last race turned into a bit of a dash and this one was coming again at the line – Trainer/jockey won this last year and these Giggy horses are bred to stay , future chasers. He’s a bit similar to Very Wood actually, but not 50s this time. Anyway, given all of the above and the form of the yard/owners I wanted him onside at 12s/14s.

Redford Road-  hits the profile, runs like a stayer. You can make a form case/profile case for a bit run, 33s+ . I won’t over think that one…

House Island – and neither will I with him. The disparity in price between him and Harry Senior was silly given the form etc – that may not be good enough but he’s got some good form to his name and hasn’t done much wrong. I’ve no doubt he will stay, whether he’s good enough is another question but I suspect this is the best horse Paul Webber has had for quite some time. He could place of course, but x3 foolhardy 1 point wins is the way I will play – I put 1/2 win on Kilbricken Storm when he won, never again.

This race throws up strange results because the horses are young and still maturing – and this is the greatest stamina test they will have faced, including a big field/relentless gallop. That’s why ‘form on paper’ can go out the window. Maybe this is a year for a shorty to take it, but you’re still guessing whether x, y and Z will see it out fully etc.

Thyme Hill – it would be nice for him to win for the team but you have to question the yard form etc now – and on that basis he’s short. Not a race for single figure odds plays, long term.

 

 

4.50 

(as of 07.25)

#6 – Paloma Blue – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/WH/Coral)

#7 – US and Them – 1.5 points win –  20/1 (lad/coral/Betf) 18/1 (others)

Paloma Blue – ticks the trends and it’s HDB again. And Aidan is having a good week, well bar Paisley. There’s more to come over fences from him and he has graded form to his name, and course experience. He races prominently and should appreciate this drying ground I think. He will relish this hill- Hopefully Aidan tracks what could be a frenetic pace but you dont’ want to be too far back over fences around here, and I made that mistake with my two woeful Kim Muir picks. He was badly bumped at the last LTO, probably his own fault, and that may have cost him. I think he will over turn the form with Eclair De Beaufeu on that basis and he was staying on again. He may just have a rating high enough for this race historically but worth playing at the prices.

Us And Them – well, i’m fairly bullish on him here- this is all about the Going – and this track is drying out all the time- he get stuck in soft/heavy and his good/gs ground form reads well, inc at G1 level- he could storm this. He should race prominently and is another who will relish this climb to the line. The break will have done him good and often horses win this seemingly out of form. I’m expecting a big big run from him and will be despondent if he does’t go close. Of course he could just be out of form, but I think it’s about the ground.

Indeed those that won LTO are 1/71 in the last 15 years and I believe those that have won over fences this season have a woeful record. So that’s against many of them.

I didn’t like the rest at the prices but honourable mentions for Eclair De Beaufeu (I mean if I like Paloma he obv has a chance), Chosen Mate (will this happen a bit too quickly for one so inexperienced, esp on good to soft? – too short for me) and I suppose Jan Maat.

 

5.30 

(as of 08.10)

#8 – The Bosses Oscar – 1.5 point win – 14/1 (bet365/Lad/BV/Coral) 17.00 BetfX

#9 – Escaria Ten – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen) 18.00 BetfX

I really hope I don’t need Gordon to dig me out of a deeper hole come this but he’s eventually worked out the type of horse needed to win it I think, with 2 wins in the last 3 years and a close 2nd and 3rd last year. Obviously given his connections with Martin Pipe its a race he targets/likes to win, more so than most I think.

The Bosses Oscar – he just has the right profile for this and his form stacks up better than most – he look so interesting – he nearly beat Blue Sari on hurdle debut (Champion Bumper 2nd, behind Envoi Allen) , hacked up in ab big field two starts back and then lost in a small field dawdle LTO – those to have run in novice races LTO and indeed at Thurles do well in this. This pace set up/gallop should really suit him and I can see him storming up the hill here. There’s no doubt he has to be better than 138 and he could have stacks in hand here. Good on Davy for not revealing it LTO, ahem. (the race was too tactical for him, a valid excuse for defeat, and he blundered the last)

Escaria Ten – again the right profile and in the ‘could be anything’ camp – this horse was 3rd behind Monkfish (2nd that day) three starts back – he’s very smart and currently being well backed for The Potato Race above. He’s done what he should have done the last twice but there’s no telling how high this one could go as yet. He will have loads in hand. The one niggle is that he is a 3 mile chaser in the making and this could happen too quickly – that’s why I preferred the one above, staking wise. However he may appreciate a strong gallop and if he’s in touch as they turn for home, he will keep going up this hill. I also thought the booking of Fergus Gregory was interesting – probably an owners thing but he’s attached to the Olly Murphy stable, Gordon’s former assistant of course. The stars align… maybe.

I may have the wrong formlines of course… Front View (4s, good lord, not another one!) Column of Fire and Five O Clock all tie in with their runs LTO-IF that’s the formline, then they could be battling this out. But I was happy to leave them. I have stuck with Elliot, and if i’ve had a bad day by this point, maybe a dabble on Column of Fire just in case he storms up the hill – I may need some money to buy a round by this point 🙂

 

The Gold Cup: 3.30 

#11 – Clans Des Obeaux – 2 point win – 15/2

I’m really quite warm on his chance here and thought 15/2 looked big. I know everyone bangs on about him not getting up the hill but I want to give him one more chance. That King George win was so impressive, although I know a few under-performed. He’s a different horse this year, better, stronger and he’s had one fewer run – he’s been kept fresh. They may have made too much use of him last year also, and with no Native River, this may not be run at such a frantic gallop. I think they will be more patient on him and try and deliver him late. I think he will look like the winner approaching the last – and we shall see what happens after that. He’s nailed on for The Bowl at Aintree if that goes ahead you’d think, but I didn’t really like those above him  – at the prices. Al Boum Photo would be the pick at 3s, but he can hit a fence, which is always a niggle – but he could follow up here, which is very hard to do.

I thought this ground ‘may’ have dried up too much for Santini- well, he may struggle to keep up at times, but he will storm up the hill – if he keeps tabs with them, he will play a role in the finish.

I thought the selection seemed to be the overpriced one and it would be typical Nicholls to not have a ‘stellar’ week winners wise, but to take home the Queen Mother and The Gold Cup.

*

So, that’s the lot.

Yes I know I could have stuck to 1 point win on everything – or changed tac and gone 1/2 EWs etc – but i’ve only spread around 3 extra points on horses where I am more bullish at the prices. Whether that works out, we shall see, but i’ll cope with the extra 3 point outlay. 🙂

Have a great day, and I hope I can add to it,

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Festival micros:

    Won at Leopardstown last time out (-5.5 after 3 days).

    1.30. A Wave To The Sea.
    2.10. Latest Exhibition.
    3.30. Delta Work.

    Ran at the last meeting or last run was at = Cheltenham (+116.5 BFSP after 3 days. If Carlsberg made micros!!!).

    2.50. Harry Senior & House Island & Redford Road.
    3.30. Bristol De Mai and Santini.
    4.50. McGroarty and Ballywood & Theinval.
    5.30. Ruthless Article.

    Good luck.

  2. 14:10 Mohaayed 1pt e/w
    14:10 Sir Valantine 1pt e/w
    16:10 Shantou Flyer 1pt e/w
    16:50 Jan Maat 1pt e/w
    17:30 Flash The Steel 1pt e/w

  3. A late fiver e/w on Lisnagar Oscar 50/1 made it a good day!
    Gold Cup Day
    14.10 Aramon
    14.10 You Raised Me Up
    15.30 Al Boum Photo
    16.10 Shantou Flyer

      1. Back to back Gold Cup winner makes it a memorable day, one non runner and rest placed for e/w return, on the Guinness now!

  4. Well, after 3 winners yesterday I feel a bit buoyed and even before I put up today I see Josh has picked a few of mine, unfortunately again with work and trying to study has left me tight on time, so, horses only I`m afraid. Let`s have a big last day!
    13:30
    A WAVE OF THE SEA 1pt win 11/1 gen
    SOLO 1pt win 4/1 gen
    14:10
    ADJALI 1pt win 12/1 gen
    MOHAAYED 1pt win 12/1 gen
    14:50
    COBBLERS WAY 1pt win 12/1 gen
    REDFORD ROAD 1pt win 28/1 gen
    15:30
    SANTINI 1pt win 5/1 gen
    KEMBOY 1pt win 10/1 gen
    16:10
    SHANTOU WARRIOR 1pt win 8/1 gen
    STAKER WALLACE 1pt win 6/1 gen
    16:50
    CAPELAND 1pt win 25/1 gen
    US AND THEM 1pt win 20/1 gen
    17:30
    COLUMN OF FIRE 1pt win 13/2 gen
    ASSEMBLE 1pt win 20/1 gen

    hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  5. Mine for today, profitable so far
    2.10 – Saint Roi @ 7
    2.50 – Fury Road @ 8
    The Wolf @ 100 e/w
    3.30 – Lostintranslation @ 8
    4.50 – Paloma Blue @ 11
    5.30 – Five O’Clock @ 15/2
    Everybreathyoutake @ 50 e/w
    GL

  6. I know if has been difficult so far this week for you Josh but looking at your selections it does give the feel of desperation especially as we see 1/2 point suggestions and 11 selections, surely a record number of suggestions. By the end of the day today I may well be very wrong so best of luck. Gordon

    1. Hi Gordon, politie questioning/critique in these parts is always welcome as you know – so no problem there:) I have explained that above in the intro etc –

      Maybe there is a hint of desperation – but controlled 🙂 – a few points –

      – I’m crap at EW betting, have always been, and I don’t like having 1/2 wins this week, i’ve made that mistake before with biggies. So i’ve stuck to win only – and everything above has at least 1 point on the win side.

      -The ‘extra points’ only amount to +3 extra – if say I just decided to go 1 point win on everything. No doubt one of the 1 point wins will hack up and I will have misplaced my staking confidence on the wrong one etc. But that’s the game.

      – i recommended a 40 point bank – the worst case is -22 today on main tips- that will be crap week of course- but everyone knows the maximum damage inc today – it’s 14 points and any followers can adjust as they see fit. If losing £140 today is too much, £10 bets are too much, £70 = 5 etc etc.

      -I’m disappointed with myself this week in how abject i’ve been at using my own stats work (which has worked, again) and how i’ve failed to land on Henderson/ Elliot/ Mullins/HDB Nicholls/ JP/ Giggy horses so far. For as long as those people remain in the game, we all know thats the place to focus – and a bit on young Joseph OB/ Skelton occasionally. And indeed certain jockeys. I may have missed the boat now, but that’s whether generally the focus has been today – with a couple from Twister and following my Albert Bartlett stats as always (over +100 points on that race in last 5 years)

      -finally – to some degree I have been influenced by external events in the wider world – there’s a big chance not much sport at all happens in the coming months, or worst case maybe some meetings behind closed doors, or cancelled altogether. I did think why not lets have some controlled fun – that is a record number of selections but i’ve put the work in – and will keep everything crossed.

      It is a bit shit or bust, not just this week, but maybe a general feeling of the last few months and looking ahead to the future, but that’s a discussion for another day 🙂

      Best, Josh

      1. I do not think that it has been a good week so far for ‘festival stats’ I have seen about full stop. I will come back in more detail on that next week.

        The thing with tipping when you do if for money/have subscribers etc is that you have to work through how best to make a profit for your followers over a period of time. I aim to show a profit over a calendar year where i do tip on various sports. I think that is fair as long as subscribers are aware that that is the plan.

        feedback is good if constructive but judge tips over a lengthy period of time. There is a lot of value about this week and so a volume of bets is understandable. Cheltenham is a conundrum but if you hit big, as per one of my micros above, it can be a good week to have a go.

        1. Maybe generally but that’s the nature of the beast but they should only ever be used as part of wider analysis unless following a micro blind etc.

          I know you probably generally don’t pay much attention to my own stats work in the main posts but the various micros and trends shortlists/longlists have between them included nearly every winner, if not every one, of my target races. I’ve just been naff at landing on them which in part has been due to taking on top of market etc. When a raft of 6s< shots at time I look win handicaps then I will sometimes struggle. But a handful of glaring omissions and most were an acceptable price at some point. GL today.as always. Josh

          1. Hi Josh, when the dust settles and you have some time it would be good to know how many winners were included in your stat summary – focus for next year!

  7. Hi Josh – “Harry’s Historical Fact of Day Four of the Festival”. The Cheltenham Gold Cup
    The Cheltenham Gold Cup is a Grade 1 race run on the New Course over a distance of about 3 miles 2½ furlongs and during its running there are 22 fences to be jumped. The race takes place each year on day 4 of the Cheltenham Festival in March, it is open to horses aged five years and over,
    The first ‘Cheltenham Gold Cup’ took place in July 1819 and was a Flat race over three miles on Cleeve Hill, overlooking the present racecourse. The inaugural winner, Spectre, won a prize of 100 guineas for his owner.
    It wasn’t until 12 March 1924 when the race was run as we know it now, although in those days it took place on what is now the Old Course and was overshadowed by the National Hunt Chase. That first renewal was won by the five-year-old Red Splash who earned connections £685!
    The race was abandoned due to frost in 1931 and in 1937 due to flooding, but the five intervening years saw the most prolific horse in the race’s history, Golden Miller. He won five consecutive Gold Cups between 1932 and 1936 and managed a Grand National for good measure in 1934.
    The Vincent O’Brien-trained Cottage Rake became the first multiple winner in the post-war era winning all three renewals from 1948-50.
    During the 1960s the legendary Arkle cemented his name in racing’s Hall of Fame by winning all three renewals from 1964-66. Such was Arkle’s superiority prior to his final victory that he was sent off the 1-10 favourite and the Tom Dreaper-trained icon remains the shortest-priced winner in the race’s history.
    Perhaps the most remarkable feat by a trainer came in 1983 when Michael Dickinson saddled the first five finishers. Bregawn, ridden by Graham Bradley came out on top but can you name the other four? Captain John, Wayward Lad, Silver Buck and Ashley House, in case you were left scratching your head.
    Dawn Run created another piece of history in 1986 when Paddy Mullins’ mare became the first, and only, horse to date to win both the Gold Cup and the Champion Hurdle.
    Arguably, the most popular Gold Cup winner came in 1989 when the ‘nation’s favourite’ Desert Orchid stormed up the Cheltenham hill under Simon Sherwood. The bumper crowd was ecstatic but twelve months later the ecstasy turned to shock when 100-1 outsider Norton’s Coin bloodied the noses of his more-fancied rivals. Trained by Sirrel Griffiths, Norton’s Coin remains the biggest-priced winner in the race’s history.
    A new era of domination began in 2002 when Best Mate, trained by Henrietta Knight, won the first of three consecutive Gold Cups. His final victory in 2004 confirmed him as only the fourth horse to have won the race three or more times.
    The Paul Nicholls-trained Kauto Star outclassed his rivals in 2007 but twelve months later he had no answer to his strong-travelling stablemate Denman. In 2009, the pair locked horns again but with Denman only just recovered from a heart condition, Kauto Star gained revenge and became the first horse to regain The Gold Cup.
    In 2013, Bob’s Worth gave Nicky Henderson his second Gold Cup winner in three years following the success of Long Run in 2011. The 2014 renewal saw Lord Windermere prevail in a dramatic renewal and 2015 had its fair share of drama as Coneygree became the first novice since Captain Christy in 1974 to lift the Gold Cup.
    Recent renewals have seen trainers win the race for the first time with Don Cossack, Sizing John and Native River landing the spoils for Gordon Elliott, Jessica Harrington and Colin Tizzard respectively. The last of those was an epic race as Native River and Might Bite went head-to-head from flagfall before the former found a little extra on the final climb up the hill to land the biggest prize in Jump racing.
    In 2019, Al Boum Photo provided Irish-trainer Willie Mullins with his first win in the Blue Riband event, with Paul Townend riding.
    I have to say my record in the race is dire – but did have the winner in 1987 – I am sure the oldies will remember this – it was nearly abandoned and I think they set off around tea time!! Enjoy
    I will try and do one for the Midlands National but my son moves in to his first house tomorrow and I have arranged the mortgage for him – so will be doing dad things
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXBlsEesDtw&list=PLfn5x2SD03q76sBCwgVUl7rRFgbYwpzsc&index=7&t=0s

    1. Thanks for this Harry – remember 1987 well, was quite a snowstorm, would never have raced if it was now, was a huge Guinness filled gamble on The Thinker who was loved heavy ground. Happy days!

  8. Day 4 looks hard to me! Good luck to all playing in the markets.

    Apart from backing the micros above I have the following Canadian.

    1.30. Goshen.
    2.10 Saint Roi.
    2.50 Fury Road.
    4.10 Billaway.
    5.30. Column Of Fire.

    Through the card:
    1.30. I am on Solo at 18/1 and Sir Psycho at 22/1 each way ante post. The horse I like most is Goshen as a potential star. He seems to have the breeding to go jumping.

    2.10. I got this down to quite a lot! Too hard really. At a big price Moon Over Germany.

    2.50. I am against Ramses De Tellee, a chaser up against improving younger horses. The ground has gone against him now as well. Redford Road as an outsider.

    3.30. Al Boum Photo won well last year but this years opposition looks better. Also the stats are against repeat winners.I am against Lost In Translation after his last effort and his lay off. Santini will stay but his jumping could be better. I am coming around to Clan Des Obeaux. This is a good opportunity for him to win a Gold Cup. Does Delta Work truly stay this distance and he does wear a hood. So Clan each way or a big upset.

    4.10. Not a race that interests me. Go with a good jockey. I will go with Billaway who has already beaten Staker Wallace. Although he has course winning form in the past Minella Rocco is an old monkey and cant have him. I like Shantou Flyer but Mr Maxwell is not the best over fences.

    4.50. I have backed Greanateen at 12/1 each way ante post. This one looks very hard.

    5.30. Another easy one! I like Column Of Fire and he has a decent jockey on board. Front View has been very well backed and he is a JP hurdler and they are going well this week. However…..my nap of the day is Flash The Steel for Dan Skelton. Plot job.

    Have a good day.

  9. Milan Native got the business done in the Kim Muir and further improved GE’s record with hdcp debutants at Chelt (interesting that Death Duty in the Plate got smashed in before the off to a SP of 8/1 but could only manage 10th).

    GE great record in the Martin Pipe and has 3 more on hdcp debut:

    17.30
    The Bosses Oscar 1pt EW 14/1
    Escaria Ten 1pt EW 16/1

    There is a SP restriction to the 5 year Chelt stats as all GE’s hdcp debutants to have placed have gone off <15/1 but he's had a couple of biggies (SP 25/1) not too far away from placing so in FOMO if he does go close I've also backed Everybreathyoutake 1/2pt EW 50/1

  10. just about everything i’ve backed today has already been mentioned so just a couple of massive biggies in the 4-10 just in case one pops in i can brag about backing them 🙂
    Mr Mercurial 400-1
    Southfield Theatre 250-1

  11. THE TOP TABLE DUTCHING MENU OF THE DAY
    *************************************************
    1.30 C A WAVE OF THE SEA
    1.30 C BURNING VICTORY
    1.30 C NAVAJO PASS
    ****************************
    2.50 C AIONE
    2.50 C FURY ROAD
    2.50 C HOUSE ISLAND
    2.50 C MONKFISH
    ****************************
    3.30 C AL BOUM PHOTO
    3.30 C BRISTOL DE MAI
    3.30 C KEMBOY
    3.30 C PRESENTING PERCY
    3.30 C REAL STEEL
    ****************************
    4.10 C BILLAWAY
    4.10 C ALCALA
    ****************************
    4.50 C ADRRASTOS
    4.50 C CHOSEN MATE
    4.50 C MARACUDJA
    4.50 C MCGROATY
    *****************************
    5.30 C ESCARIA TEN
    5.30 C EVERYBREATHYOUTAKE
    5.30 C FLASH THE STEEL
    5.30 C THE BOSSES OSCAR
    5.30 C UMBRIGADO
    ******************************
    That’s it folks .. simples … innit !!!!!!!
    Seriously though folks ….. so many qualifiers today it has been ricadoodlylass !
    Be careful out there today !
    But most of all .. keep having fun & keep smiling mc !!!

    gbster all Dutched out !! 🙁

    1. Hi GeorgeB…Catching up on my reading and understand you had a good day yesterday!!…congrats….decided to follow you in today and glad I did in the first…how do you do it!?…Enjoy your spoils…all the best Hi Ho.

      1. hi hi ho 😉 long time no parlez 🙂 ……. well just enjoying the return of the wind of luck at the mo ….and 24/7 on the hrb systems i invent and / or adapt others 😉 … but it’s a long process but i am trying to sort out the chaff form the wheat ……. the important think is i absolutely love thinking and producing new angles ….. stakes low smiles high .. that’s what i say !! .. thanks and again and enjoy the rest of the day 🙂

        1. Yep…long time no parlez indeed…awaiting the flat season as not really into jumps though did give it a try for a year but heart is not in it so the sand is better especially in the sun!! Whatever you are doing just keep on doing your stuff…a real joy and great you are posting them a…..really appreciate all the effort, enthusiasm and time you put in….see you back on the free posts when my guest Chelt sub runs out…Hi Ho….

  12. And another fing …………. 🙂
    Here are my tracker horses in with a shout today :
    2.10 C ZANZA = think this will be plugging away when others hace had enough ??
    2.50 C RAMSES DE TEILLEE = don’t write this one off yet .. will be tanking a along
    2.50 C THE WOLF = yes may be from the heart …but will totally out run his odds !?
    3.30 C MONALEE = still has many a grade 1 win to come should get a good run .
    4.50 C THE BAY BIRCH = obviously best horse in yard ..sneaks a place at least ?
    4.50 C TWO TAFFS = must go well e/w !

    That’s definitely for Today .. enjoy !
    Laterz mc 🙂 … Sand between your toes tonight ???

  13. At the course, awesome. Thanks to all on the blog and massive shout to Josh, keeping binding us together, bring on the Ciel de Nige lol

    Cheers,

  14. i always take this day off every year to go out on the booze with my mates
    Absolutley stunned you’v gone with a 2point on Clan des Ob Josh
    iv been on Santini for quite a while
    And i dont think il be able to leave Lostintranslation unbacked
    Although Tizzard form here is not good
    Will have a think

    1. I can see Clan winning. You must have had a few to consider backing Lostintranslation! Mind you after the first race anything could happen.

  15. Barry Geraghty age 40 years young.
    Tony McCoy verdict top class jockey just remarked on live tv about him.
    Amazed someone on RTP called him rubbish agreeing with his dad, you do not stay at the top in NH racing at the age of 40 unless you are bloody good!!! and McManus would not have him as his No 1 jockey if he could not do the job.
    Colin.

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