Festival 2020: Day 3 (complete)

Write ups – Through The Card + ALL tips x7, Stats/trends

1.Main Tips (summary)

2.’Through The Card’

3.Stats Pack Trainer/Micro Quals

4.Stats Pack Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

5. Tips – Write Ups/Notes

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1.Main Tips (summary) (COMPLETE ALL tips x7) 

(1/20, 5p, -8.1) 

2.10 

(as of 06.53) 

# 1 – The Storyteller – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/888/Lad/Coral) 7.00 (BetfX)  2nd, no excuse -1

#2 – Dream Berry – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 21.00 (BetfX) UP -1 

#3 – Royal Thief – 1 point win – 33/1 (Bet365/betfS/BV/PP) 40.00 (BetfX) UP -1 

 

4.10 

(as of 08.06)

#4 – Ben Dundee – 1 point win – 12/1 (Lad/BV/UniB/Coral) 14.5 (betfX) 5th -1, travelled well – I think he’s well handicapped but possibly just doesn’t get up that hill – he’s got a handicap chase in him somewhere.

#5 – Robin De Foret – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 18.5 (betfX) UP -1, never in it, strange run

 

5.30 

(as of 08.36)

# 6 – Le Breuil – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (gen) UP -1.5

#7 – Fitzhenry – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP -1

 

That’s all for main tips today, as of 09.01… 7 tips, 7.5 point outlay… write ups at bottom of post inc thoughts on Simply The Betts…

 

2.’Through The Card’

(1/9, 5p = -7)

For fun/interest/smaller stakes etc…

1.30 – Itchy Feet – 4/1 UR -1

2.50 – Frodon – 5/1 UP -1

3.30 – Ronald Pump – (WITHOUT THE FAV market, 10s/9s) 2nd UP -1 

4.50 -Dolcita – 8/1 2nd -1 

**

 

3.Stats Pack Trainer/Micro Quals

Trainers

N Henderson 

2.10 – Welsh Saint (starting points)

G Elliot (any odds)

2.10 – Sire Du Berlais

4.10 – Ben Dundee

5.30 – Milan Native

Micros

M1 (25/1< guide)

4.10 – Blazer / Livelovelaugh / Robin Des Foret

5.30 – Caberet Queen / Plan Of Attack

M2 (25/1< guide)

4.10 – Ben Dundee

5.30 – Plan Of Attack

M3 (16/1<)

4.10 – Deyrann De Carjac / Imperial Presence / Mister Whitaker / Oldgrangewood / Simply The Betts / Siruh Du Lac / Spiritofthegames

5.30 – Go Another One / Militarian

M4 (28/1< guide)

2.10 – Sire Su Berlais

5.30 – Champagne Platinum

M5 (16/1<)

2.10 – Royal Thief / Tout Est Permis

4.10 – Death Duty

5.30 – Milan Native

M6 (15/2<)

2.10 – A Great View / Dream Berry / Sire Du Berlais / Unowhatimeanharry

4.10 – Blazer

5.30 – Champagne Platinum / Fitzhenry

 

4.Stats Pack Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

2.10 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • The Storyteller / Sire Du Berlais
  • Welsh Saint
  • Jatiluwih
  • Burrows Park
  • Dream Berry

Trends

A profile of ‘not dropping in class’ , 6-10 hurdle runs, 0-5 handicap hurdle runs and running in a ‘non major’ race last time out (not listed/G3/2/1) leaves 11/15 winners (11/84 runners, 25p)…

The Storyteller/ Skandiburg/ Jatiluwih/ Stoney Mountain / Sunset Showdown/ Rapper 

*

4.10- Festival Plate

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Ben Dundee / Death Duty
  • Siruh Du Lac
  • Not Another Muddle
  • Snow Falcon

Trends

A profile of 2-4 runs prev 90 days, 0-4 runs at track, ran LH LTO, ran over 19.5f+ LTO, ran in a race for 5yo+ LTO, leaves 10/15 winners (10/46 runners, 16p, +420 BFSP)…

Simply The Betts/ La Bague Au Roi / Robin Des Foret/ Blazer / Clondaw Castle / Springtown Lake / Charmant / Kauto Riko 

*

5.30 Kim Muir 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Champagne Platinum
  • Milan Native
  • Bob Mahler
  • Cloth Cap
  • Flying Angel

Trends 

A profile of: age 7-9, 0-7 runs last 365 days, 2-6 runs this season, 0-1 wins this season, 0-2 wins in handicap chases leaves 13/15 winners (13/133 runners, 30p)…

Le Breuil / Fitzhenry / Kilfulum Cross/ Ardlethen/ Cloth Cap/ Flying Angel / The Kings Writ / Like The Sound 

 

5. Tips – Write Ups/Notes

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As a Liverpool supporter who often likes taking on ‘shorties’ in Festival handicaps, Wednesday wasn’t much fun!! 🙂 Watching Adrian reminded me of my own goalkeeping efforts in my youth – and yes I did play in my glasses! Still, I should’t complain and in the grand scheme of things given the troubles ahead, it’s irrelevant. Gold Cup day seems touch and go given the severity of today’s Cobra meeting and of course you have to fear for The Grand National meeting – well, given everything you read, you’d have to think it will be cancelled, maybe behind closed doors, we shall see. And i’m sure many opposition fans will enjoy the prospect of us winning the league behind closed doors 🙂 

Anyway, given that sombre mood, i’ll try my best to lift the punting spirits. 

We’re onto The New Course today where it should ride a tad better – it’s generally the quicker of the two anyway and they’re on ground kept fresh since last March. Remember the rails get moved tomorrow I think, creating a golden highway up the inside rail. There’s been some rain in the air though and I have still assumed its soft – I think good ground horses may struggle but if i’ve got that wrong some of the races may be more open than i’ve anticipated. Over fences it does pay to race handier on this track, and you really do have to stay. Much stiffer than the Old Course although they can go quicker around there. Only 2 flights of hurdles in the last 6 furlongs – so plenty of galloping on the flat…. onto today…

2.10 

# 1 – The Storyteller – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/888/Lad/Coral) 7.00 (BetfX) 

#2 – Dream Berry – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 21.00 (BetfX) 

#3 – Royal Thief – 1 point win – 33/1 (Bet365/betfS/BV/PP) 40.00 (BetfX) 

 

The Storyteller – Don’t worry I have checked my temperature  – a 5/1 shot in a festival handicap hurdle. Whatever next. I’m not sure you’ll see a better qualifying ride than LTO to sneak him into 6th, hands and heels. Obviously he didn’t achieve his best possible position there, but that’s the Pertemps system for you. On his chase mark/form he’s obviously chucked in and that run was all the evidence needed that he has the pace for hurdles etc. He does stay well enough although this will be a different test and he does have that to prove- it may be a small chink. He hits my trends shortlist and it’s Elliot/Russell- I decided at 5s it would be too painful to watch him win with nothing on. He is well handicapped, of that i’ve no doubt. And that can’t be said for many in here. He’s got class, and should go very close.

Dream Berry – a poke but Jonjo is the winning most trainer in this and he is having one of his more consistent seasons I feel – Junior just gets better and better in the saddle and rides Cheltenham well. The horse.. well he’s fairly lightly raced for his age and has some decent big field/G3 handicap hurdle form, inc at the Festival – over trips that seemed short enough. He’s stamina to prove but he cruised around at Sandown after a lengthy break over 23f in heavy, moving like a very well handicapped horse. Lack of fitness/the ground caught him out there I think. Anyway, at 16s, I thought worth chancing. He could relish conditions here and storm up the hill. He’s surely been kept back for this and has a good record fresh – and plenty of winners already this week that have won off a break, having avoided the deep winter mud. He shouldn’t be hard to spot, almost white.

Royal Thief – I’ve no idea how he’s 33s – he was within 2L or so of Relegate and A Great View at Punchestown LTO and simply on a line through them that’s a silly price. To my eyes anyway. HDB is in form and Giggy have won this race before, with Delta Work. Being a future staying chaser may be no bad thing in this race today and he does just shape as if he’s a dour stayer. I think a couple of his recent races have turned into relative sprints which have caught him out. He may also have done a bit too much in 1st CP LTO, and they may work better this time. I think he’s a bit of a character but I wanted one with younger, unexposed, lightly raced legs onside. Giggy have got me out of a hole on the Thursday before – 20/1 winner of the Stable Plate in 2016, and it would be nice if they could do so again. Hugh Morgan is good for his claim and knows the horse well enough – his 5lb may make some difference after the last. He does just look like a stayer, and at 33s i’ll pay to see if i’m right, and whether he can be in the shake up.

Staking.. well bar the odd brainwave i’m generally rubbish at deciding when to go EW, so i’ve stuck to my usual approach today of all on the nose. I know many of you will go 1/2 EWs etc but that’s not how I like to play it. No right or wrong on that front. 

Dangers… well nothing much would annoy me here I don’t think, at the prices… Relegate is interesting obviously – I concluded that at 6s she was just a tad short , esp having left Mullins and Colm Murphy hasn’t trained a rules winner in 2 years (although only 0/16 in that time, and would be some way to end that mini drought- and he is/was the trainer of the likes of hmmm.. Brave Inca, Big Zeb, so he does know what he’s doing! and she’s a nice mare) She will have needed it no doubt LTO but ‘the bounce’ may be a fear. She is a prev champion bumper winner, but at similar prices I had to go with Gordon and Davy. But she’s a danger. I could leave Welsh Saint at his price also – that seemed short given the level of form achieved so far – but he’s unexposed, in form, and it’s Nicky Henderson. He can do no wrong this week. Knowing my luck the one time I play on a ‘shorty’ i’ve picked the wrong one of three, but there we go.

I found it fairly easy to leave the rest in conditions – many don’t look well handicapped/have to step, some out of form, some with stamina questions esp in conditions etc. If something else wins so be it – I suppose Rapper would be annoying to a point in the sense he’s on the trends list and is 25s – but I didn’t think his/Sandiburg’s form would be good enough here (ties in with my Daly hurdler who came 5th yesterday) They may be in and around the places though.

 

4.10 

#4 – Ben Dundee – 1 point win – 12/1 (Lad/BV/UniB/Coral) 14.5 (betfX)

#5 – Robin De Foret – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) 18.5 (betfX)

 

Where to start… Simply The Betts... well I hinted in my write up for the Novice Hncp that if the Bailey horse hacked up, this one would crash, and he did. In some rare quick thinking for me I had a nibble at 6s as Imperial Aura was storming up the hill. He was 4s or so within 5 minutes. At 10/3 I just have to take him on here – he is obviously chucked in, he races on the front, generally jumps well, and stays – he may make 10/3 look good – but I just couldn’t. I found it hard going for a 5s shot above. That’s just too short for me. And I couldn’t leave the race, only to see him falter and a biggie win. Criminal.

Options… well you could have a win ‘saver’ of sorts – you could put him in a 22/1 double with The Storyteller – you never know- maybe fun for change – AND – you could play a small combo forecast/tricast etc with my two selections? I will be doing that for change, as opposed to EW bets. Again, for fun/interest, but I do fancy mine to run him home, IF he does what the market is expected – and as we saw with Defi, that’s never a guarantee.

Ben Dundee – that pair again – surely he’s been laid out for this,probably since his 3rd in last year’s Close Brothers, behind A Plus Tard. Maybe he’s had the odd issue in the meantime but he ran well on his return in December, in what was very testing ground, only slowing late on. They then ran him over hurdles (16f) and we haven’t seen him since. Interesting. The handicapper has still put him up 9lb, clearly not trusting the Irish assessor – he did run a RPR 156 in that Navan race – some hope then that this mark is fine (the fav was 159 LTO) He is lightly raced in handicap chases and there should be more to come. There is a slight stamina niggle over him up this hill also I think, but only that, and he’s 12s, not 5s. I don’t think he will be far away.

Robin Des Foret – one from the trends shortlist and I was weighing up between him and Blazer – I hope I haven’t picked the wrong one! Robin was just behind his stable mate LTO but he’s had a wind op and i’m putting some faith in that, and the fact that he has course chase form, with a decent 1l 3rd in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here in Dec – (Blazer has run well here at the Festival over hurdles in 2016) he also likes winning more-  in any case, he has travelled like a very well handicapped one in every race this season really – just stopping a bit after the last – well he did keep on here in Dec – given the wind op, that may be the reason. It may not, and he will look like the winner and fold up the hill, but at 16s I wanted him onside. He has a handicap chase pot in him when it all clicks/he sees out his race.

Both of those bring decent handicapping/chasing form to the table and looked like they may be well handicapped.

The annoying one.. Blazer as mentioned, maybe change on the machine for me, but I wasn’t sure he was well handicapped – but then I’ve thought that about the odd other one in green and gold this week.

Really, those were the only four I was interested in. For one reason or another I don’t like the rest at all. And if one takes it, I wasn’t that close and will live with it. Of the monsters, I suppose Clondaw Castle at 25s is interesting to a point, on the trends list – but IF this is still hard work, and not proper good to soft all over, I thought he’d struggle, as he did here earlier in the season. He’s sometimes held up also and that’s not ideal around this track over fences.

*

5.30 

# 6 – Le Breuil – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (gen)

#7 – Fitzhenry – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

 

I’ve gone through a whole meeting before without backing a Codd/D O C/ P Mullins horse before in ‘their’ races and you’d think i would learn my lesson by now. I decided I didn’t want to do that again and I could make a strong case for their mounts…

Le Breuil – my one niggle, other than the in and out yard form this season (but Kildisart ran a cracker), is whether they would give him a hard race with The National in mind – however he needs 20 or so to come out of that and isn’t guaranteed to get in – he should just be fine, but I suspect connections will want him to run a cracker here. The fact Gordon Elliot/Giggy have a runner in this and Jamie isn’t on makes me think he wanted to ride this one- winning on him in the NH Chase last year, beating Discorama (ran well in Ultima – maybe one for the Irish National?) – he just brings solid handicapping form to the table – a decent run in the Classic Chase – a race where the form keeps being franked – he split Head To The Stars (won for us Ludlow) and The Conditional there, he was never really put into the race, and i’m not sure the track suited him. He won’t be done for stamina and you will need to get home. I thought 6s looked more than fair and I was bullish enough to curse the poor sod with a 1.5 point bet.

Fitzhenry – this horse is a monkey – I thought about EW for a while – but he may not take to the track etc and he is a character – he travels like a well handicapped horse  – he just struggles to keep his head in front. He should have won 2 starts back. LTO he was badly hampered. He stays well and if this is still soft, he will enjoy it. (unlike many in here) . I thought Patrick’s style may be ideal for him- he will be quiet, and will try to deliver as late as possible – I can see him and Le Breuil slogging this out up the hill – a Paul Carberry type ride may be required! Again, maybe forecast options but that’s probably being over confident and i’ll have read at least one other incorrectly. The yard are in form as we saw with Discorama, and he should go close. Whether he bottles it near the line again, we shall see. But there maybe nothing near him when he does start to put the breaks on! To EW or not to EW, that was the question but I decided against. Whether that will prove foolish, time will tell.

Of the rest…

I just didn’t like them…

Now, IF i’ve got the ground wrong and this rides OK, which it may – then the likes of Plan of Attack and Cloth Cap will go better than I anticipate. I thought the Scottish National would be the aim for the latter again, but I could be wrong. I wasn’t sure Plan of Attack would stay as well as some others around here.

I thought Champagne Platinum was an awful price- he can’t jump, or hasn’t to date – he’s just too inexperienced for me, and does have a stamina question. I’ve no doubt he’s well handicapped but 4s/5s was just too short – that makes Simply The Betts at 10/3 look massive! If Derek wins on him then so be it, i will doff my cap.

We were on Deise Aba LTO but again he is inexperienced and he did hit a couple at Sandown. I went for two hardier handicappers, which I clearly should have done in the NH Chase in hindsight, and if one of the youngsters relishes this test then fair play. Questions over the Hobbs team maybe, and his record in handicap chases in recent years at the Festival has been woeful. But, he has won this race before and Trevor may want a Festival winner. I thought this looked deeper than last year and could leave Kilfilum Cross at his price. But this may have been the aim and he could be knocking on the door.

The annoying biggie would be Bob Mahler – who i’ve got right once around here when he won a lesser race than this, but haven’t got him right since. He will stay, and the blinkers could work the oracle. We were on Missed Approach at 12s in this race a couple of years back and Trainer/jockey team up again. I  thought the two selections were just better horses but if he bounces out and travels on the front, he will keep galloping. However, he does want ok ground I think, much better with Good in the going and not soft. Although he handles it. I could leave for tipping purposes but he’s a lively outsider if handling whatever the ground is! Fingerontheswitch may run into a place, but there should be better handicapped ones I though – but he ran a cracker LTO and hasn’t run a bad race in an age. Maybe for machine £2 bets they would be two at a price, for further interest if required.

*

Right, I think that’s the lot. GL as always.

Josh

ah, ‘through the card’

1.30 – Itchy Feet – 4/1

I will be cheering home Faugheen but I can’t back him at his price/age. But what a story that would be. This one was impressive LTO, I just hope they don’t ride him too far back. 3rd in the Supreme last year, he looks sure to go well.

2.50 – Frodon – 5/1

Ah Frodon – I think APT should be winning this and may be very impressive but 7/4 is short enough I felt – Frodon will give a good spin and Nicholls is a master at prepping them for these races, as we saw in The Queen Mother. He will give it a good go as always, while the classier horse may do him. A 1-2 maybe.

3.30 – Ronald Pump – (WITHOUT THE FAV market, 10s/9s)

I’ve just followed Andy Holding’s preview tip here really – he was very very bullish on this as a play in this race, based on his figures etc. And he was right about Imperial Aura (damn) . Apparently the time on the clock of that Pertemps Qualifier (the one Storyteller came 6th in) was very very good, and suggested he’s the best of the rest in this. I hope Paisley wins, and this one can chase him home!

4.50 -Dolcita – 8/1

Well a guessers race when you don’t follow the mares prog etc – I thought it best to stick with Mullins, in his benefit race – and these colours won last year, making me think the owners may target this race. I noted her win two starts back came in a big field and maybe she’s best coming off a relentless gallop, as was last year’s winner. Clearly not the top hope on jockey bookings but after the shambles in the G1 Mares race, I thought Robbie Power may be trying extra hard here!

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Thursday micros:

    Won at Leopardstown last time out )-3.5 after two days).

    1.30 Faugheen.

    2.50 A Plus Tard.

    Ran at Cheltenham last time out or as their last run (lost of qualifiers!).

    2.10 Skandiburg and Rapper.
    2.50 Saint Calvados.
    3.30 L’Ami Serge + Lisnager Oscar + Paisley Park + Summerville Boy + Tobefair.
    4.10 Mister Whitaker + Siruh Du Lac +Simply The Betts + Spiritofthegames + Old Grangewood + Imperial Presence + Deyrann De Carjac + Highway One O One.

    1. Well, take a bow, some shout that! 50/1 SP – hopefully plenty on the machine also! Some price on there. Well done.

      1. Thanks Josh, I thought it may go off shorter and was confident of a place which is why I done the without fav bet too. Unfortunately it was a system bet for me on the bot which has a cap of 44.0 so got cancelled!! He was bang there on last bend LTO and just thought he was saving a bit for something special like today. Nice when they come in, haven’t seen the race yet, or any other, no signal where I’m working.
        Also have only been paid for the 25’s even though SkyBet state a BOG race, I don’t use them enough to be restricted so I ‘ll have to chase them up on that.

  2. Change of approach after a shocker today! Two e/w value selections, Kilbricken Storm 14.10 and Robin des Foret 16.10, both 16/1 this evening GL

  3. Day 3 thoughts.

    1.30. Faugheen the machine is just too old now surely. I may lay a place dependent on odds? Itchy Feet is improving and on a streak but his price looks short now. Melon may well have had his day. I do like Mister Fisher and his trainer is on form this week. Reserve tank has been solid this season and could place. I would not back Samcro with chocolate coins. Any horse on a nebuliser clearly has big issues. The Jonjo’s have Annie Mc who is on a winning run and has less weight to carry than anyone else.
    I will have to go with Mister Fisher and Annie Mc as a bigger priced each way alternative.

    2.10. The Storyteller from the Elliott/Russell team will be feared but the price looks a bit skinny now. Jatiluwih with the galloping gent on board (better over hurdles than fences) could be big at 20/1? A Great View is supposedly a plot horse and JP has his cavalry in great form. Third Wind still seems to be progressive and Kilbricken Storm has done it at this meeting before and would have been trained for this.
    Two progressive horses are Skandiburg and Welsh Saint and I think that they will play a pert in the finish if getting a decent run in the race. Dream Berry for the Jonjo’s and JP looks like another lightly raced plot horse here. Relegate is unexposed but his price has now shortened up a bit too much for me. I like Rapper at 20/1 + as he closely linked on form to Skandiburg.
    As a pick I will go with Welsh Saint and Rapper as a sporting each way fancy.

    2.50. I have backed Frodon each way at 10/1 but I do not think that he is value at half those odds now. This is a better race than last year and Min and A Plus Tard are better horses than Frodon. Min has about 6LB on A Plus Tard but the latter is improving and won very well here last year.
    Ridersonthestorm has been great this season and can keep improving . I think that the rest of them are out of it including Aso, who has course form and does battle on.
    I think that A plus Tard will win but if there are 8 runners I will go with Ridersonthestorm each way.

    3.30. Paisley Park is the winner if he is fit and well and stands up. Summerville Boy can follow him home as usual. City Island has decent enough form and can place as well. Emitom won well enough last time out. Penhill is a dual festival winner and if back to form could finish the race off a slowish pace, but that looks unlikely. I think that Apples Jade and putting blinkers on here is very much a desperate last hope.
    I like Ronald Pump as the each way pick at 20/1 +. He mixes hurdling with chasing but looks to be a stayer.

    4.10. I did back Mister Whitaker when he won at the festival previously but his form has not been good in recent times. If you forget the pulled up last time out then Siruh Du Lac comes into it even off a big weight. Perhaps it was his year in 2019. Simply The Betts is a short price now but has been great this season.
    Will Spiritofthegames ever win here. I prefer Old Grangewood from the Skelton stable. I think that there may be a few too quick for Happy Diva and I do not think that this sort of race suits Le Bague Au Roi.
    Clondaw Castle came back to form last time out but needs to improve again. I do not think that Deyrann Du Carjac’s form is good enough to win this. Charmant steps up in grade and has been a consistent winner at class 2 and 3 but can he step up to top level? Springtown Lake hacked up in in class two last time out and has a low weight. Despite not having not run this season I like Not Another Muddle off his low weight and on his previous form.
    So in a tricky race i will go with Old Grangewood and Not Another Muddle each way.

    4.50. I like Floressa and Minella Melody in this one. Ard Abhainn has already been beaten by Minella Melody but Gordon Elliott may have improved the horse since then and Davy Russell takes the ride. Emma’s Joy has been winning and is improving and can run into a place here at a price.
    Colreavy has been beaten by Minella Meldoy this season, as has Dolcita and Mount Ida. Concertista was beaten by Black Tears last time out and that form was boosted on Wednesday.
    At the prices now I will go with Floressa each way.

    5.30. The Coddmaster rides Le Breuil for Ben Pauling here and has been backed in accordingly. You do want a good jockey in these amateur rider chases. Sam Waley Cohen will have The Young Master prominent on a course both of the partnership go well on. Deise Aba has won its last two starts and has Will Biddick in the saddle. Fitzhenry has not won for quite a while and Patrick Mullins will have his work cut out to be competitive here.
    Bob Mahler has been touted up by his optimistic trainer but I do not see him being good enough. I like Ardlethen for Dan Skelton, who has Gina Andrews in the saddle. Plan Of Attack has strong form and Henry De Bromhead does know how to train a distance chaser. I think that Kilfilum Cross has been trained for this. He was second last year and can go well again in 2020.
    Champagne Platinum is the golden mix of Hendo, JP and Derek O’Connor. However he is pretty short in the betting in a hot race. Cloth Cap goes for Jonjo. I do like Just A Sting as a horse and can forgive him his fall last time out.
    So in a hard race I will for Kilfilum Cross each way.

    My each way Canadian is:

    1.30 Mister Fisher.
    2.10 Welsh Saint.
    2.50 Ridersonthestorm.
    4.50 Floressa.
    5.30 Kilfilum Cross.

    Good luck Martin

  4. 14:10 Relegate 1pt e/w
    17:30 Plan Of Attack 1pt e/w
    17:30 Go Another One 1pt e/w

    We already have Simply the Betts and Frodon e/w and as expected the price on the former has halved

    Will possibly add one more in the 16:10 in the morning but mulling it over

  5. Didn’t fancy anything when I looked through the card, so just threw a few darts in the daft hurdle races and basically just watched my free ante post Acca’s go up in smoke

    Iv looks through the first race 2moz and Itchy feet looked a strong traveller in his last win, Mr Fisher with the course form tho. Watching the 2 race I’d say Itchy feet would have best chance. Couldn’t have Samcro although Davy first time up if he can ease him into the race. Think the horse would find a way to lose tho
    Can’t back Faugheen against horses half his age, this hasn’t been the plan to come here so it’d be remarkable if he did win

    in the Brown Advisory similar to Martin above iv missed the price on Simplythe bets, runs been good and form boosted but too short to back now. I’m surprised Old Grangewood is 14/1, wind surgery looks to have done the buisiness and if you watch that last race it doesn’t look like 5lbs would be stopping him travelling so well into it on very similar ground to what he’ll be encountering 2moz. If anything it looked like Harry poss got there too early and could of held onto him a bit longer which would help with treading water at the line like last time. Can’t ever rely on a jock to do what you think tho and with Simplythebetts looking so strong iv took the price 10quid ew as I can’t see him out of the frame. Saint Calvados a very good horse who he just beat the last race, like it that he’s been freshened up a bit aswel, not as confident as with the conditional the first day but I’m thinking he’s up there

  6. Also, iv took a flyer on Apples Jade in the stayers. Today shows anything can happen and if blinkers get her racing and she just goes off then who knows. Dicky is obviously on to have a go from the front and I think that’s the only way to beat PP to try and steal a lead and stay there, as he looks unbeatable getting in a race with him
    20/1 can have a 5er

    1. And the lucky last
      Bob Mahler 18/1 £5ew
      Fingerontheswitch have got a 5 er on 33’s but did want to go ew will see if drifts any this morning

  7. A few fun bets for today,
    1-30 Midnight Shadow 20-1
    2-10. Kilbricken Storm 16-1, Uknowhatimeanharry 50-1
    3-30. Apples Jade 22-1
    4-10. Mister Whitaker 22-1, Death Duty 22-1
    4-50. Ard Armainn 14-1
    5-30. Deisse Aba 8-1, Thomas Patrick 40-1

  8. 13:30
    FAUGHEEN 1pt win 4/1
    ITCHY FEET 1pt win 9/2
    14:10
    SIRE DU BERLAIS 1pt win 17/2 gen
    RELEGATE 1pt win 15/2 Coral 13/2 gen
    DREAM BERRY 1pt win 20/1 gen
    14:50
    FRODON 1pt win 5/1 gen
    ASO 1pt win 20/1 gen
    15:30
    APPLES JADE 1pt win 22/1 gen
    SUMMERVILLE BOY 1pt win 9/1 gen
    16:10
    BEN DUNDEE 1pt win 12/1 gen
    SIMPLY THE BETTS 1pt win 7/2 gen
    16:50
    CONCERTISTA 1pt win 5/1 gen
    VIENNA COURT 1pt win 40/1 gen
    17:30
    LE BREUIL 1pt win 13/2 gen
    DEISE ABA 1pt win 17/2 gen 8/1 mainly

    no write ups again, apologies, will try best for tomorrow. Think some of the favourites look solid and some of them look vulnerable today.

  9. Sorry if these are a big long – just want to do them justice.

    Hi Josh – “Harry’s Historical Fact of Day Three of the Festival”. The Stayers Hurdle
    The Stayers’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 hurdle race which is open to horses aged four years or older. It is run on the New Course at Cheltenham over a distance of about 3 miles and during its running there are twelve hurdles to be jumped. The race is scheduled to take place each year on day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival in March.[1]
    The Stayers’ Hurdle is the most prestigious long-distance hurdle race in the calendar. It was introduced to The Festival in 1972 when it replaced the Spa Hurdle and was initially known as the Lloyds Bank Stayers’ Hurdle.
    The inaugural race was won by Parlour Moor who was trained by Harry Thomson Jones and ridden by Macer Gifford.
    Tommy Carberry steered Brown Lad to victory in 1975 for trainer Jim Dreaper before becoming the first jockey to win the race twice when partnering the Peter Easterby-trained Town Ship in 1977.
    In 1982 Crimson Embers gave Fulke Walwyn his first of three Stayers’ Hurdle successes when partnered by Stuart Shilston and the trio combined again four years later when Crimson Embers became the first horse to regain the title and at eleven, the oldest winner of the race. Galmoy became the first horse to win back-to-back renewals in 1987 and 1988 for trainer John Mulhern and jockey Tommy Carmody. The Barry Hills-trained Nomadic Way won in 1992with those famous Sangster colours carried by Jamie Osborne.
    Martin Pipe recorded the first of two successes in 1994 when Balasani held off all challengers under Mark Perrett and two years later Cyborgo followed suit when ridden by David Bridgwater.
    Multiple winners were aplenty in the 2000s. The French raider Baracouda set the trend when winning in the famous silks of J. P. McManus in 2002 and 2003 for Francois and Thierry Doumen.
    2005 proved a landmark year for more than one reason. The title of the race was changed to the World Hurdle when Ladbrokes took over the sponsorship and it also saw the emergence of one of the best-known names associated with the race.
    The Howard Johnson-trained Inglis Drever won the race three times in 2005, 07 and 08. Graham Lee was the jockey for his first success whilst Paddy Brennan took over for his second success and Denis O’Regan for the third, meaning that Inglis Drever is the only multiple winner in the race’s history to be ridden by three different jockeys.
    Prior to 2009 Paul Nicholls had been out of luck in the Stayers’ Hurdle but one horse stepped forward to change all that. Big Buck’s hadn’t looked anything out of the ordinary in his native France, winning twice from 13 starts, but in the hands of Nicholls he blossomed into the best hurdler of his generation and arguably the best we have ever seen, winning from 2009-2012 with Ruby Walsh
    In four short years, Big Buck’s, Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh became the most successful horse, trainer and jockey in the race’s history. Injury prevented the superstar defending his title in 2013 when the Charles Byrnes-trained Solwhit took full advantage under Paul Carberry – 36 years after his father had won with Town Ship.
    The race changed in 2017 back to the Stayers’ Hurdle, the final World Hurdle saw Colin Tizzard’s Thistlecrack land the spoils.
    The inaugural Stayers’ Hurdle saw trainer Willie Mullins gain a first success in the 3m prize with Nichols Canyon and Mullins was back in the Winner’s Enclosure twelve months later with Penhill.
    Owner Andrew Gemmell was all smiles in the winner’s enclosure after Paisley Park justified 11/8 favouritism to land the G1 Stayers’ Hurdle in 2019.
    The replay today is from 1995 the jockey who rides the winner here was paralysed from the neck down after a fall in March 1997 and the winner nearly died from an attack of colic late in 1995 before recovering and becoming a top-class staying chaser
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVPRkBdtDOg&list=PLfn5x2SD03q7WAKDMF1pV8oaLpnJCgDHG&index=14

    1. Just fine Harry, I enjoy reading them! It’s good to reminisce/look back at the history etc. Thanks again.

  10. What twaddle they talk on The Morning Line.

    They are excelling themselves today!!

    Luke Harvey is the champion of nonsense.

    But at least they have Ruby and AP on later.

    I will stick with racing TV.

    1. Stopped watching any race chat on tv best decission was stopping subscribing to sky especially their sports channel around 6 years ago, now just switch on just before the off of a race or catch up on the computer recordings god knows how much sky took off my life by being a couch potato!!!!
      Much prefer the journalists write ups on racing and how they have read the race, much more informative.
      TV presenters are not going to pass on sensative information from trainers, unless allowed by the said trainer and if they give out information without the trainers agreement then there own betting information would stop.
      Took note of Jason Weaver who was very good however he often mentioned his view seconds before the off and struggled in the time left to get my bet on with Betfair for they appear to stop taking bets just before the off, so do not take note of what he says now.
      Why i say journalist write ups are more informative take yesterdays race Champ winning the camera man was only concentrating on the first two battling out the finish and did not see champ’s winning run till very close to the winning line and it was after the race had finished they showed another angle and the ammount of ground Champ made up to win, so a normal raceday they are switching from one racecourse to another and so you will not always see what happened in the race for the tv channel do not have time to show it in many cases.
      On that note just opened my paper and do have a shinny new pin which seems to work for me!
      Colin

  11. Mine for today
    1.30 – Samcro @ 4
    Tornado Flyer @ 20 ew/
    2.10 – Stony Mountain @ 33 e/w
    2.50 – Shattered Love @ 28 e/w
    3.30 – Penhill @ 14
    4.10 – Death Duty @ 22 e/w
    4.50 – Mount Ida @ 25 e/w
    5.30 – Thomas Patrick @ 50 e/w
    Milan Native @ 18 e/w

  12. Start again ……… MC welcome back from the hallowed turf old chum.
    bit of a “betfair tbp” extravanganza for me yesterday (how was your 2nd day ?)
    TODAYS GB REST-O-RANT OFFERINGS MENU
    ***********************************************
    1.30 C MIDNIGHT SHADOW = jif/tif/race type = small e/w bf win/tbp
    2.10 C STONEY MOUNTAIN = tracker horse weird but interesting jockey booking = small e/w bf win/tbp
    3.30 C PENHILL = tif/jif
    3.30 C LISNAGAR OSCAR = tracker horse small bf tbp for me
    5.30 C ARDLETHEN = tif horse type / race type = bftbp

    Have fun out there today once again ! 🙂
    gbster 🙂 always in the right place !! 🙂

    1. Hiya G left I a message on the ordinary members post earlier. My best for today is a trixie with Itchy Feet, The Storyteller and Simply the Betts. Then Ronald Pump in stayers, either without fav or 4tbp.

      Have fun my friend.

      1. Yep rogered that mc 😉 …… may the purple patch wind be with you today old fruit
        laterz 🙂

      2. I am retiring mc .. just got the win and our f/c up in da 3.30 CHELTERS !!! woopy de woop woops 🙂
        gbster … he’s your man if he can’t do it know one can !!!

        blessed are the gb’s !!!
        🙂

        1. Missed you had him also GB – top shout, and what a price BFSP, lovely stuff. You and Chris above had it right off there, congrats. You have to enjoy those monsters.

          1. nahhh .. it happens to me all the time ………rofl .. 🙂 … hens teeth springs to mind …. but as you say …… bask in the ocean of sardines while you can .. because those japanese whalers of a bookie will come and get you soon enough !!! better go now sounding like eric cantona 🙂 cheers josh thanks for the shout 🙂

            gb basking in glory !! 🙂
            just seen £ 700 odd for my f/c 🙂 .. still should have done the exacta £ 1400 odd 🙁 still that’s just plain greedy !!!! ( i actually ducthed 5 in the race and had the first 3 home !!! – don’t even talk about the tricast 🙂 )

          2. Well done George, I’ll not mention the 28000/1 tricast! You need to branch out from the aw! You and the mc could be a tipping duo, have a word with Josh….

          1. it was thanks to your suggestion that i verntured into a long price f/c as well .. so thanks mc as usual … great team work 🙂 had a winner on the members page as well 🙂 …good day all in all 🙂
            shopping tonight but hopefully catch all your aw winners later mc 🙂 …. we’ve all done very well !! 🙂

          2. Sadly nothing leaping out tonight, think the part of my tiny brain that analyses racing is done in 🙂

          3. cheers mc see you tomoz ….. now of to celebrate in “lidl” …… lidls chocolate baileys for me tonight and no mistake !!! 🙂

  13. Big G’s handicap debutants at Chelt last 5 years +14.50 win p/l +35.63 ew p/l (sr 16% win 52% place)

    16.10 Death Duty 1pt EW 22/1
    17.30 Milan Native 1pt EW 16/1

    Both jock’s claiming 7 which could make a diff and DD hits one of my 2’1/2m chase trainer/sire systems so enough for me to have a play.

      1. Cheers GB! Nice to get one in

        Well done on LO in the stayers and for the f/c with RP you’ve had it right off happy days!!

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