Festival 2020: Day 2 (complete)

ALL Tips x6 + through the card, notes, video

1.Main Tips (summary)

2.’Through The Card’

3.Stats Pack Trainer/Micro Quals

4.Stats Pack Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

5. Tips – Write Ups/Notes

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1.Main Tips (summary) (COMPLETE: All Tips x6)

(1/13, 3p, -0.6) 

2.10 

#5 – Allaho – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) 3rd -1 

 

2.50 

#1 – Top Moon – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/BetfS) 18/1 (BV/PP) (23.00 BetfX)UP -1   

#2 – Honest Vic – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) (44.00 BetfX) 5th , -1 

#3 – Traffic Fluide – 1 point win – 28/1 (gen) (34.00 BetfX) UP, -1 

 

4.50 

#4 – Langer Dan – 1 point EW – 28/1 (UniB/Betf) 25/1 (gen) (1/5,5p gen) (1/5,6p SkyB) UP (6th urgh) -2 

#6 – Galahad Quest – 1 point EW – 25/1 (gen, 1/5,5p gen) Up -2 

 

That’s it for main tips, all tips x6 above (8 points total), as of 09.45. Notes to follow… 

 

 

2.’Through The Card’

(1/5, 3p = -3)

Muggy Multiples? 

No singles today – i’d be picking biggies out of the other races for the sake of it,  and my views on the bumper won’t be worth much! It is maybe a day for muggy short priced multiples? For change obviously, to pay for a round of drinks etc – i’ve put a couple of £5s (which is my ‘through the card’ 1 point and much less than my own main tips 1 point) on … a trebleEnvoi Allen / Defi Du Seuil / Tiger Roll (that pays 5.4/1) and  a fourfold… with those three… and Appreciate It in the bumper… which is 17/1 or so. 

Just a bit of fun – I like those first three but not the prices i’d wade into with singles etc and of course it’s likely one of them will get turned over. Maybe 2.  Always annoying when it’s leg 1 mind, so hopefully Envoi A can get the job done and then the excitement can build. The bumper is anyone’s guess but if you believe the hype, that fav could be the second coming. 

I WILL BE counting those two multiples as 1 point win outlays for ‘through the card’ purposes at 5.4/1 and 17/1, and if they fall down, will will be -2 on that front. That seems a fun way to play those races today, and if you fancy something else in said races, your confidence should be boosted! 🙂 

 

3.Stats Pack Trainer/Micro Quals

Note: It is NOT advised to back any of these systematically, I think they’re more useful used in any punting deliberations, but you’ve seen the research and can do as you please. 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson

2.50 – Burrows Edge / Dame De Compagnie (starting points/refer to notes)

G Elliot (any odds)

4.50 – Aramax/ Gealach / Recent Revelations / Saint Doroux / Tronador

Paul Nicholls

4.50 – Mick Pastor / Thyme White (starting points/refer to notes)

D Skelton

4.50 – Langer Dan

N Williams

4.50- Galahad Quest

Micros 

M2

2.50 – Thosedaysaregone (25/1< guide)

M5 (16/1<)

2.50 – Coko Beach / Cracking Smart

 

4.Stats Pack Race Trends/Trainer Pointers

2.10 RSA

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Champ / Pym
  • Allaho / Easy Game / Castlebawn West

Trends Shortlist 

Well those to have run at G1 level and had placed LTO… 12/15 winners (12/75, 26p) leaves…

Minella Indo / Allaho / Easy Game

Age 7 is a big plus on the stats – of those, Minella Indo

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2.50 Coral Cup

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Birchdale / Dame De Compagnie / Burrows Edge /
  • Canardier/ Bachasson/ Eglantine Du Seuil / Franco De Port / Stratum / Mister Blue Sky / Sayo
  • Cracking Smart / Black Tears / Coko Beach

Trends Shortlist 

Hmm… well some sort of profile… (there’s no horses this year having first UK/Irish run from what I can see/french import)… so Not Down 1f or more in trip from LTO, Not same OR as LTO, 1-12 career runs, 1-6 handicap runs, 1-9 hurdle runs, had won at least once last 4 starts, 0-3 runs at G3 level. 0-2 handicap wins, 0-2 handicap hurdle wins, did not run in a race for Novices LTO…

Leaves 10/15 (10/14 ignoring Aux Ptits Sons who won on UK/Ire debut) (10/49 runners, 18p) …

Alfa Mix / Dame De Compagnie/ Burrows Edge / Top Moon/ Coko Beach 

 

4.50 Juvenile Hurdle

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • Aramax / Tronador / Saint Doroux / Recent Revelations / Gealach
  • Mick Pastor / Thyme White/
  • Palladium / Fraser Island /
  • Night Edition
  • Galahad Quest

Trends

They don’t seem the strongest here, against my approach, but those that had won at least once last three starts, had yet to race at Cheltenham, and who’d had 0-3 starts for their trainer leaves 10/15 winners (10/99, 26p… which is 2/3rds winners from around 1/3 runners, and nearly 50% places) … 0/8 last year though but leaves..

Aramax / Tronador / Palladium / Thyme White/ Blacko / Fraser Island / Zoffee / Clemencia

 

 

5. Tips – Write Ups/Notes

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Master Post: READ HERE>>>

-The ‘Master Post’ includes various links inc main stats report, the plan for the week, betting banks etc

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VIDEO …  notes below…

 

 

Notes: I expand plenty more in the video above, but not everyone will have the time/inclination to watch/listen to that! 🙂

2.10 – Allaho – I wanted to be with him as he just oozes class for me and has always been a chaser in the making. He hits my limited stats and Mullins is the winning most trainer represented in this. I preferred him to Minella Indo and Champ – had he won LTO and not walked through a fence, i’d have been keen, as he has class, but 7/2 is short for a race like this when a niggle over him at a fence, esp under pressure.

2.50

This is ‘moving day’, up or down… mainly as these two handicap hurdles are littered with biggies going in. It’s the right play long term, even though there’s some well fancied ones in them this year, but I have to take them on. 20/1+ winners in hurdle races at the Festival make my week really, if i’m lucky enough to land on one. Nearly all my 20/1+ winners have been over timber and fingers crossed I land on one or two in the next 3 days. This race felt a bit ‘meh’, as if there were no graded horses lurking with stacks in hand – it could be a blanket finish after the last – but I could be wrong on that.

Top Moon – he is well handicapped mind, he hits my trends, top 8 in weights do well, it’s JOB, Mark Walsh rides handicap hurdlers well here, he will appreciate the conditions and this step back up in trip. And indeed the nature of this race I think. I can see him cruising into this and he was overpriced. I wanted one on side from the trends shortlist and he seemed the best by far to my eyes.

Honest Vic – well he is just that. He tries (occasionally has a brain fade) and hasn’t done much wrong since his fine Ascot 2nd in Feb 19. He hasn’t run a bad race really. I think he’s a 3 miler in the making but this set up will suit and he should just keep going up the hill. It looks like he’s been saved for this and the yard are going well- Whatmore ran a fine 4th yesterday. He’s tactically versatile and looked way overpriced. Something may have more in hand etc, but this could be a year where it’s who toughs it out best.

Traffic Fluide- one of the few left field picks I occasionally throw into the mix. He would break many a stat/trend etc but IF he ran his race, kept tabs, and transferred his chase ability to hurdles, then he would have 10/15lb+ in hand. He’s a smart horse who’s been lightly raced in recent years and he was possibly going to win a G1 LTO, or in any case be very close to a good horse. The trainer reports him to be in fine shape since then and that while the National is the aim, they haven’t ‘totally discarded this race’ – he is talented and won’t lack for stamina. He is fit, and whatever he does obviously wont affect his mark etc for Aintree , so there’s no reason he wouldn’t be here to run his race. I just couldn’t help myself at the odds, as I think he could run well. He may well struggle to keep up and/or they don’t want him having a hard race, but he was worth a dart for me.

Of the rest… well nothing would really annoy me at the prices – others of some interest included the Fav (who’s just too short and I need to take on), Eglantine Du Seuil (who’d be my pick of the Mullins horses but I think he’s throwing mud, and wasn’t sure any would stick – although maybe Carnadier also, if Willie has worked his magic – ran well in the race last year) Protektorat of some interest but niggles over how free he can be, and running in a Novice LTO a neg – but unexposed, and interesting to a point. This race set up may suit. Champagne Well may run into the places, I thought possibly may lack the toe/something may have more in hand.

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4.50

Another race where long term it pays to go for biggies – both Dan Skelton and Nick Williams know what it takes to places in this race/go close, and Nick knows what’s needed to win it.

Langer Dan – hits my trainer pointers and his form reads very well to my eyes – I thought it looked the best of the British given who’s he’s beaten/been beaten by (expanded on in video). He’s tough, has course form, soft is no problem and he stays. He will appreciate a strong pace here and could be well handicapped. I’d be disappointed if he’s not in and around the places here, with luck in running.

Galahad Quest – another trainer pointer and Nick has won this race- with Flying Tiger 33s who was crossed off my list very late. Sickening and I didn’t want to miss another Williams biggie that I could make a case for. His form is solid, that last race working out well, and he will just keep improving. He is a chaser in the making, much like Coo Star Sivola who went very close in this also – I think they thought about putting him away for the year as they really like him, but the fact he runs would indicate they expect a big run. He’s NH bred and from a good family – in what still could be testing ground – tacky/hard work-  his assured stamina and liking for this hill should be a bonus. Maybe he will struggle to lay up but he is 25s and well worth an EW poke.

These two don’t feel like big priced pokes in the same way as the Coral, and i’d be surprised if one of both were not banging on the door if i’ve read it right. As such with 5 places, EW seemed the play but as always with my staking, esp win only at big prices, you can do as you please! I know many of you will just back them EW, but I always want 1 point on the win side, and I was not spreading out 6 points in the Coral.

Of the rest… well nothing at the prices near the top end would annoy me. They will take this every now and then but the top two seem very short now. Not for me. I will mention one…

Gealach – maybe worth some shrapnel on the machine, mainly as Gordon’s 2 winners of this have been sent off at 25s and 33s, and maybe backing his monster priced ones is no bad long term strategy in this. You never know – I found it hard to make a ‘form case’ – but this is a juvenile handicap! He may have improved plenty in the last 60 days.

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That’s the lot for Day 2. GL with any bets as always!

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Early one for the Coral Cup since someone starting laying into in twenty minutes ago: Top Moon 1pt e/w

  2. The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt steeplechase which is open to horses aged five years or older. It is run on the Old Course at Cheltenham over a distance of about 2 miles and during its running there are thirteen fences to be jumped. The race takes place each year on day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival in March.
    The event was established in 1959, and it was originally called the National Hunt Two-Mile Champion Chase. It was given its present title in 1980, the year of the Queen Mother’s 80th birthday
    The Dan Moore trained Quita Que won the first race 1959 under Bunny Cox before Tom Dreaper, the leading trainer in the race and Pat Taaffe teamed up with Fortria to become the first multiple winners of the race in 1960 and 61. Ever since then there have been many multiple winners of this two-mile chase; Drinny’s Double achieving the same feat for trainer Bob Turnell and jockey Frank Nash in 1967 and 1968.
    Fred Winter trained his one and only Champion Chase winner in 1971 when Paul Kelleway partnered Crisp to victory who two years later suffered an agonising defeat by Red Rum in the 1973 Grand National.
    The Edward Courage trained Royal Relief became the first horse in the race’s history to regain his title after winning under Bill Smith in 1972 and 1974. Skymas recorded back to back wins for trainer Brian Lusk and jockey Mouse Morris in 1976 and 1977 and became the oldest winner, at 12
    The Robert Earnshaw ridden Badsworth Boy dominated the race in the early 1980s, winning three years in succession between 1983 and 1985 for the Dickinson family and he remains the most successful horse in the history of the race.
    At the end of the 1980s there were two more back to back winners of the race. Pearlyman tasted glory for John Edwards in 1987 and 1988 and the David Elsworth trained Barnbrook Again followed suit in 1989 and 1990.
    David Nicholson broke his duck in 1994 when Viking Flagship galloped to victory under Adrian Maguire and he didn’t have to wait long for his second when the same horse followed up 12 months later in the hands of Charlie Sawn.
    The Jessica Harrington trained Moscow Flyer stamped his authority on the race in 2003 before disappointing punters 12 months later when unseating Barry Geraghty. He returned in 2005 and duly made amends becoming the joint second oldest winner of the race.
    Three years later saw the emergence of another superstar in the shape of Master Minded. Paul Nicholls gelding was untouchable in 2008 under Ruby Walsh when as a five-year-old he became the youngest winner of the race and was just as dominant when following up 12 months later.
    In more recent seasons, Barry Geraghty has been a leading force. In 2010 he partnered the Colm Murphy trained Big Zeb and in 2012 and 2013 with Finian’s Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre respectively. That took his tally to five, making him joint leading jockey with Pat Taaffe.
    The 2018 & 2019 renewals were both won by Altior, unfortunately he won’t be defending his crown
    Another of my favourite horses won in 1995 – Enjoy!! Good race this.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsHmtiNC4f4&list=PLfn5x2SD03q5JvCXGy6sgDjP2wJnUorDj&index=11&t=0s

  3. Day 2
    1.30 The Big Breakaway
    2.10 Copperhead
    2.50 Franco de Port
    4.50 Repetitio
    5.30 The Glancing Queen

  4. 13:30 Cheltenham
    LONGHOUSE POET 1pt win 16/1 gen
    SON OF CAMAS 1pt win 50/1 gen
    14:50 Cheltenham
    ALFA MIX 1pt win 9/1 gen
    BLACK TEARS 1pt win 18/1 gen
    PROTEKTORAT 1pt win 14/1 gen
    17:30
    ISREAL CHAMP 1pt win 12/1 gen
    FIVE PAR BRIAN 1pt win 33/1 gen
    AUDACITY 1pt win 100/1 – 125/1 gen

    sorry, no time for write ups, but, believe me, Nick, Josh and a few others got The Conditional, think if you take nothing else from this week I would like to think that when we all land on one you should double up, would like to see some stats for that…?? 🙂

    1. I did get the forecast up also, with Kildisart, nice little £300+ profit from my £5 reverse forecast. It`s an underrated value bet at the festival and even though I may not get another one all week, it puts me ahead nicely.

    2. Hi Stewart, backed The Conditional with three separate bets thanks to yourself, Nick and Josh all putting it up. Great when it comes off, a big thankyou to you all and the effort that members put in to making RTP so very good!!

  5. Hope you guys got the 28-33/1 on Moon yesterday since that’s well and truly gone.

    14:50 Top Moon 1pt e/w
    14:50 Champagne Well 1pt e/w
    14:50 Black Tears 1pt e/w
    16:50 Galahad Quest 1pt e/w
    17:30 Israel Champ 1pt e/w

    Envoi should win the Ballymore and Tiger Roll the Cross Country (I think people forget Easysland won a handicap and is still rated about 20lb lower and running off level so Tiger could run 10lbs below his best and beat it easily.) and I couldn’t find anything to take them on with. Hopefully some of you followed my ante post advice on Dynamite Dollars and are sitting pretty at 3 places paid at 20/1.

  6. Shout out to guest member George B: how’s it going my friend,sorry had no time to post, manic getting to and from track, lucky will be home for last two days 🙂

    1. stop pestering me on here MC !! lol …. you know i’ll only start talking again !!
      yep all good thanks mc …….. you ???? ……… best ever day 1 for me 🙂 …. monday night i devised another one of my wacky micro’s for cheltenham ….. MARES !! .. It gave me 2 bets yesterday HONEYSUCKLE AND PUT THE KETTLE ON …. so i did 😉 .. beginners luck maybe ???? keep having fun my friend … see you back on the sand sometime 🙂
      laters gbster 🙂

  7. Mine for today
    1.30 – Easywork @ 25 e/w
    2.10 – Slate House @ 12
    Copperhead @ 9/2
    2.50 – Champagne Well @ 16 e/w
    4.50 – Thyme White @ 11
    5.30 – Adrimel @ 25 e/w
    Ask A Honey Bee @ 33 e/w
    GL all

  8. Day 1 = 1/7 6P +6 (5 x 2nds )

    Day 2
    1.30 Envoi Allen 4/6
    2.10 Minella Indo 10/3
    2.50 Eglantine Du Seuil 14/1
    3.30 Politologue 16/1
    4.10 Tiger Roll 5/6
    4.50 Thyme White 11/1
    5.30 The Glancing Queen 16/1

    Good luck everyone

  9. A good and long day at Cheltenham yesterday. hard work getting a drink and the on course betting shops chopped all the prices and no BOG anywhere.

    I backed three winners and a nice drift on Ravenhill and The Coddfather in the last!

    I have only got around to doing the Envoi Allen and Tiger Roll double so far at 2.2/1 but more later.

    Good luck anyone playing The Coral Cup.

  10. Micros:

    Won at Leopardstown last time out: Yesterday Honeysuckle won, two places and a loser -1/2.

    Today.
    2.50 Thosedaysaregone.
    3.30 Chacun Por Soi. NON RUNNER.
    5.30 Appreciate It and Darling Daughter.

    Ran at Cheltenham last time out: Yesterday, one winner, Imperial Aura and three losers. so +1.

    2.10 Champ and Slate House. 2.50 Protektorat and Dame De Compagnie; 4.10 Outlander; 4,50 Galahad Quest and Repetitio.

    Good luck.

  11. 1.30 C EASYWORK e/w & place only
    2.10 C BATTLEOFDOYEN / PYM small e/w & place only
    3.30 C SCEAU ROYAL (probably would have liked it to rain today 🙁 ) place and f/c with DEFI DU SEUIL
    5.30 C QUEENS BROOK (E/W NAP) right jockey/right trainer / and on my new widely acclaimed mares micro for chelters 😉

    Have fun with today 🙂
    gb 😉

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